Friday, March 17, 2006

New Jersey County Population Change Data

I'm sure many of you would like to see the Census Bureau data that was the basis for the Ledger article on population growth. The data is available on the Census Bureau site, for your convenience here is a link to one of the NJ tables. This data represents the population change from July 1st, 2004 to July 1st, 2005.

Annual Estimates of Population Change for Counties of New Jersey (Excel)

The biggest population loss was in Essex County, losing 3,958 souls, a loss of -0.5%. Hudson County was second with a loss of 1,838 individuals, a loss of -0.3%. The greatest percentage loss was seen down south in Cape May County, with a loss of -1.2%, which represented 1,175 people.

The biggest gainers were not in North Jersey, Central and South took the lead in growth. Atlantic up 1%, Burlington and Camden both up 0.5%, Cumberland and Gloucester up 1.5%, Ocean up 0.9%, and Salem up 1.6%. Should note here that Middlesex was the biggest gainer in the state with an increase of 5,851, an increase of 0.7%.

A quick look at the counties of Northern New Jersey shows stagnation. Growth seems to be taking place on the fringes (Sussex, Somerset, and Warren).

Bergen 0.1%
Essex -0.5%
Hudson -0.3%
Morris 0.6%
Passaic 0.0%
Somerset 1.6%
Sussex 0.7%
Union 0.1%
Warren 0.5%
9 County Total Growth 0.1% (An increase of 4,179)
NJ Total Growth 0.4% (An increase of 32,759)

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

21 Comments:

Anonymous gary said...

2 weeks ago, a realtor at an open house in Bergen county told me that the prices will stay the same or rise at a more "stabilized" rate because of the overwhelming demand for houses in the county. She said that the population is rising at a faster pace more now than ever and suggested that we shouldn't wait if we're interested in a particular house.

3/17/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Were those lost souls in Essex due to the high murder rate?

3/17/2006 09:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

I get the same thing from my realtor friend. Glad there is something now to show he's wrong.

On another note...
Look who's doing the wishing now:

"Toll Brothers CEO sees continued housing growth"
"Predictions of doom and gloom in the housing market are overblown and there is still room for real estate to grow as long as mortgage rates stay near historical lows, according the head of Toll Brothers, the nation's largest luxury homebuilder.


"Last time I saw 6 percent was 1966, except for the last couple of years," Robert Toll, the company's chairman and chief executive, said in an interview with The Associated Press. "If rates go to 7.5 percent, we'll take it. We can still do a whole lot of business."

----
That MUST be a typo. The last time he saw 6% was 1966? I remember 13% in the 80s. Probably meant 1996?

Wait! Here it is again!
----

"Rates have been trending in the 5 to 7 percent range since 2001. Before that, they were last around 6 percent in the early to mid-1960s, the mortgage agency said."....

On Thursday, housing stocks got a boost from news that the number of new homes under construction didn't fall as much as expected in February.

----
Yea, that's what you want to sustain a market, MORE inventory.

http://tinyurl.com/lmbnb

3/17/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Nothing but hearsay and realtorspeak.

I doubt many (if any) realtors in New Jersey even know where to find population change data let alone interpret it in any meaningful fashion.

Instead, these folks rely on other industry sources to provide them with (biased) information.

I'm not even sure if you can blame many realtors for repeating the information. The NAR seems to be force feeding these folks anti-bubble propoganda. Why doubt the NAR and it's intentions.

grim

3/17/2006 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

It looks like we're beginning to transition from Denial to Anger (The 5 stages of Grief).

Here is an angry little gem from none other than Mr. Toll himself.

He also gets irked when people call his luxury homes "McMansions."

"It bothers me and I ignore it," Toll said. "They're not McMan sions, they're mansions. The 'Mc' is a prefix put there by those who haven't got one."

3/17/2006 09:35:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

USATODAY has foreclosure and late mortgage data by state today.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-03-16-mortgage-delinquent_x.htm

3/17/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

I finally "get" what Toll is saying about rates. Basically that they are still historically low... yet he doesn't want them to go up any higher!!
"If rates go to 7.5 percent, we'll take it."
Bull, he'd crap himself if they did.

Grim,
I checked out the Census site. Found a great simple map to show my friend. Shows 0-5% growth in Bergen county from '00-'05. And with only 0.1% for last year that might just get him to listen to reason. Maybe.

3/17/2006 10:05:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

…She said that the population is rising at a faster pace more now

The RE industry spouts these baseless statistics so much, I think they really believe their own line of crap at this point.

3/17/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd like to see data regarding the race, age, sex, education level of those leaving nj for other places and those moving to nj.

It seems that while there is dwindling of middle class white americans in nj there is an increase of wealthy and highly educated foreigner/foreign born americans.

Is this the new "white flight" ?

3/17/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Toll's comments are weak. He is trying to defend buying a home at an inflated price because it is cheap to borrow. He also states that rates are at historic lows.

What is he saying?

3/17/2006 11:18:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

He's tacitly admitting that buying now has little upside, with the potential of putting yourself in a big financial hole for years.

He grasping at straws at this point.

3/17/2006 11:20:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon,

What you are asking for would require a census. Unfortunately, those don't happen very often.

I do, however, have data that show migration by county that includes AGI (adjusted gross income) of the migrants (Thank you Peter!). However the dataset is very large and I haven't had time to crunch numbers.

grim

3/17/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

Two points:

Obviously the argument that housing prices reflect population shifts is overblown, and I think this shows it.

The population argument also overlooks the small fact that the housing bubble is, uh, global.

Secondly, regarding Toll, they are just in complete denial. They also said that thier nationwide presence would protect them, even though nation wide prices have gone down.

By the way, the McMansion was created by Satan.

BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

3/17/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

McMansion McMansion McMansion McMansion McMansion McMansion

Rah rah rah!

3/17/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Troll brothers blights the landscape withthese monstrosities and then he's offended. He makes the equivalent of an SUV in the form of a house. A waste of land resources, resources to make 3 houses, and consumes more energy to cool and heat. His houses are HumVees

3/17/2006 02:54:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

A small comment on the growth of Sussex and Warren. We may be seeing some impact from the Highlands Bill here in these numbers.

Sussex has seen double digit growth for the last 5 decennial censuses.

Warren has nearly tracked the same and for the past few years has had the fastest growing municipality in NJ (Greenwich).

3/17/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NJ is going the way of other northeastern enclaves such as Massachusetts (losing population), Vermont (aging fast) and upstate New York (bleeding people for years)... with limited development in the Highlands (NW NJ) and the Pinelands (southern NJ), along with stricter environmental regulations and NIMBY syndrome invading the towns with limited development potential, there just isn't enough left to keep people here, let alone encourage an influx of new citizens save for immigrants fleeing NYC.

Add the coming tax hikes, exploding pension obligations, and other state and local ills... it's not pretty.

3/17/2006 09:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK everyone want to see the perfect example of the McMansion glut? Look up Warren NJ on Realtor.com and look at the HUGE number of HUGE homes on the market $1.3Million and up. Many of these were relisted when they did not sell in the fall/winter. Talk about overbuilding! It will be interesting to watch what happens to these prices by September.

Guess what Mr. Toll, say what you want, no on is "Buying It"... literally.

3/17/2006 11:32:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

http://www.hudsonteatenants.org/tearoom/viewtopic.php?t=454

3/18/2006 10:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Warren has nearly tracked the same and for the past few years has had the fastest growing municipality in NJ (Greenwich). "

I have been looking in Warren county ( washington twp & boro) but not greenwich because they go to philipsburg high school, what I am seeing is the washington schools are better, I could be wrong.
Anybody familar with this area

3/19/2006 07:52:00 PM  
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4/18/2006 11:00:00 PM  

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