Weekend Open Discussion
Open Discussion for this weekend
Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
21 Comments:
Anyone catch Jersey's own Jim Cramer(MAD MONEY) on NBC nightly news? To paraprase he was predicting a bull stock market as people were getting out of housing and buying back into stocks.....no longer are people talking at cocktail parties about the money they are making flipping condos- those days are over.
Wow if Cramer starts getting on the bubble bandwagon- watch out!
Richie
what would that be like savings? maybe even diversified? why wouldn't you buy a McMansion with that retirement money and gain from the 10-20% appreciation over the next 20 years? :)
Anonymous said...
Anyone catch Jersey's own Jim Cramer(MAD MONEY) on NBC nightly news? To paraprase he was predicting a bull stock market as people were getting out of housing and buying back into stocks.....
Caught it on Today Friday morning. I nearly spit out my coffee while towel drying.
alombard01,
Your definition of standard of living contains elements that many people might find extremely subjective. You can't make a blanket statement that quality of life is better here, only that yours might be. Have you lived in enough areas in the South for a long enough time to make that call?
I like scotch, you like bourbon. Who is right? Nobody, it's subjective.
Glad you were able to find a place. Care to provide the details?
grim
Grim-
One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...
Thoughts, Grim...anyone?
Amen Grim. The standard of living is "way above any area in the South?" It depends on your criteria and it depends on where you mean in the "South".
First, if you're going to base your decision on the Yankees and pizza, then of course nowhere else is going to come close. But, education? There are plenty of places in the south where you can get a "decent" education. And, this point was made on another string, if your kids get a good education outside of New Jersey, then they have a better chance of getting into a good school because of demographics. Harvard and all the NE biggies need geographical diversity.
Second, and not that I am saying that alombard01 is doing this, but nothing frustrates me more than hearing someone talk about how great New Jersey is when they have never lived anywhere else (except for college). May I ask, alombard01, if you have ever lived in the South. If so, where?
Finally, I agree with Grim. It's subjective. But, even so, I wouldn't agree that NJ or the Northeast has a blanket "better standard of living" than the "South."
Grim-
One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...
Thoughts, Grim...anyone?..........
The migration data that grim is combing through shows a pattern of migration in the Megalopolis of Boston to Wash. D.C.
Those people are probably changing jobs or going to grad school. But the other folks seem to be going south. An article in the NY Times magazine a couple of months ago showed boomers moving to florida even before retirement. Many from the NY region.
While most realtors report the market conditions on Realtor.com as picking up the "hot season", one agent is reporting the true conditions.
If you are interested in his article it is in Realtor.com Market Conditions, by Michael Popoff. He has an article, "'Good Deal' Matter of Interpretation",
giving buyers tips for making lowball offers. He also tells the sellers know, the market has definitely cooled and they need to adjust their pricing.
Thank you for some honest reporting!
The article is on his website. Go to Realtor.com, Market conditions for Ocean Grove, NJ....
'Good Deal' Matter of Interpretation
Anonymous said...
Grim-
One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...
Thoughts, Grim...anyone?
8:24 AM
People are going to have to wait to retire. You can't retire if you haven't saved any money. People used to figure they could stop at 55. People are now realizing that they will need to work to 65, and may need to continue even beyond.
My father-in-law is turning 70, and he will keep working until at least 72. My uncle is 66 and working full time. A client of mine who is 58 retire from Lucent, but deciding golf was not that interesting, so he is starting a consulting business.
chicago
grim:
Off-topic - sorry
Is there an official scotch of the NNJ Real Estate Bubble Blog?
I vote for Laphroaig, although my second choice would be J&B, because my grandfather used to have a shot every morning for "medicinal purposes". He lived to 89.
"Me and my wife were thinking about moving down South but you have to realize that the standard of living here in the North East is way above any area in the South."
I would say you have it exactly backwards.
The standard of living up north is terrible, everyone killing themselves to pay the mortgage, sitting in traffic, no time for family, people are unfriendly and untrusting, there is no sense of community.
regarding the demograhic shift of Baby boomers. You are talking about the wealthest, healthiest generation in the history of human beings. They have been part of the biggest historic real estate and stock appreciation of all time. For them, the real issue is health care. Its the echo Baby boomers who will foot the bill that may experience a demographic shift.
Official scotch why Jameson of course!
Follow up on my boomer question...I think part of this is the weight of this big of a shift will have a pretty large impact. Even if they don't retire (or want to retire), many boomers will start to gear down in the working world or be let go. Many companies don't want workers over 50 and don't hide the fact.
Plus, the empty nest part of the equation will mean a shift from single family homes to condos and adult communities. They just won't want the work involved with maintaining houses.
You can also start to wonder how many will want to move to more enjoyable environments. I would venture to guess the immediate area around NYC will be less attractive even if there are family nearby. Either they will shift to something like a shore community or someplace less built up or congested. Or, south, not to stereotype, but it's a fact.
We'll begin to find out in late 2007, early 2008 what the potential impact will be.
Grim,
Forgot to mention that you were mentioned again in the NYT blog the walk through on the 14th concerning your auction entry. I am glad to see Damon Darlin creditting the bubble blogs. It seems like nearly a quarter of his entries are related to bubble blogs.
Glenmorangie. 18 year old. Neat.
First the scotch..
Laphroaig, Oban, or Johnnie Blue are my usual choices..
grim:
On 9/21/05 you posted that it was the market "top", and I think that was a prescient call.
Good work.
chicago
Did anyone happen to see Trump on Larry King? He said Real Estate is always the way to go, yes there were some people who had some problems with it in the early 90's but he wasnt one of them??? did'nt he go bankrupt in Real Estate? I seem to remember his debts having to be restructered in fancy speak.. He really pushed real estate as the way to riches last night, that should start the spring selling season off with a bang!
trump has a number of get rich through real estate products on the market. books and tapes. he cant realy slam r.e. although rich dad poor dad has said its a bubble and takes credit for being part of the cause but his new book is before you quit your job. something like that. they all have an underlying reason.
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
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