Friday, March 17, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Open Discussion for this weekend

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

34 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone catch Jersey's own Jim Cramer(MAD MONEY) on NBC nightly news? To paraprase he was predicting a bull stock market as people were getting out of housing and buying back into stocks.....no longer are people talking at cocktail parties about the money they are making flipping condos- those days are over.

Wow if Cramer starts getting on the bubble bandwagon- watch out!

3/17/2006 10:44:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

Good thing; i just made my 2005 contribution to my SEP-IRA. Here's to retirement!

3/17/2006 11:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Richie
what would that be like savings? maybe even diversified? why wouldn't you buy a McMansion with that retirement money and gain from the 10-20% appreciation over the next 20 years? :)

3/17/2006 11:20:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

practically every property that has hit the market in 2006 has had at least one price reduction so far. seriously! if come april the buying pool of families looking to 'step-up' during school summer recess doesn't materialize, things are going to head south fast. i wait with bated breath.

3/18/2006 12:58:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said...

Anyone catch Jersey's own Jim Cramer(MAD MONEY) on NBC nightly news? To paraprase he was predicting a bull stock market as people were getting out of housing and buying back into stocks.....

Caught it on Today Friday morning. I nearly spit out my coffee while towel drying.

3/18/2006 05:38:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

hes right you can sell the american public anything.

after all if they say it on tv
or radio it has to be right.

Most americans dont read anymore,
nor do they look at details.

3/18/2006 06:34:00 AM  
Blogger Alombard01 said...

Hi Everyone -

Just want to say Grim great site and very informative on what is going on in the NJ housing market.

Just to make a long story short me an my wife have been looking for a house we can afford for 3 months. We looked at about 8 houses per week and that turns into around 64 houses we looked at.

To make a long story short we found 2 decent homes and got out bidded on one but will be closing on the other.

Me and my wife were thinking about moving down South but you have to realize that the standard of living here in the North East is way above any area in the South. When it comes to education, entertainment, food, ect. A couple of things I realized was I love my Yankees, good pizza & begals, and a decent education for our children.

For those of you looking to buy don't give up hope and be diligent. You have to sort thru a ton of coal before you find a diamond.

Take care and good luck.

3/18/2006 07:17:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

Alombard01, good for you you were able to find something. i have far less optimism having looked at about 80-90 properties over the past year. sellers are pricing properties 5-10% above even last year's peak and they're just sitting. not sure how long it'll take before they join the ranks of reality, but i feel it'll take at least 9-12 months. we'll see.

3/18/2006 07:22:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

alombard01,

Your definition of standard of living contains elements that many people might find extremely subjective. You can't make a blanket statement that quality of life is better here, only that yours might be. Have you lived in enough areas in the South for a long enough time to make that call?

I like scotch, you like bourbon. Who is right? Nobody, it's subjective.

Glad you were able to find a place. Care to provide the details?

grim

3/18/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim-

One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...

Thoughts, Grim...anyone?

3/18/2006 08:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Amen Grim. The standard of living is "way above any area in the South?" It depends on your criteria and it depends on where you mean in the "South".

First, if you're going to base your decision on the Yankees and pizza, then of course nowhere else is going to come close. But, education? There are plenty of places in the south where you can get a "decent" education. And, this point was made on another string, if your kids get a good education outside of New Jersey, then they have a better chance of getting into a good school because of demographics. Harvard and all the NE biggies need geographical diversity.

Second, and not that I am saying that alombard01 is doing this, but nothing frustrates me more than hearing someone talk about how great New Jersey is when they have never lived anywhere else (except for college). May I ask, alombard01, if you have ever lived in the South. If so, where?

Finally, I agree with Grim. It's subjective. But, even so, I wouldn't agree that NJ or the Northeast has a blanket "better standard of living" than the "South."

3/18/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim-
One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...

Thoughts, Grim...anyone?..........

The migration data that grim is combing through shows a pattern of migration in the Megalopolis of Boston to Wash. D.C.

Those people are probably changing jobs or going to grad school. But the other folks seem to be going south. An article in the NY Times magazine a couple of months ago showed boomers moving to florida even before retirement. Many from the NY region.

3/18/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said...

Amen Grim. The standard of living is "way above any area in the South?" It depends on your criteria and it depends on where you mean in the "South".

First, I lived in Atlanta while in grad school. While Georgians don't consider their capital to be southern (too many yankees moved there) it has many of the cultural attributes one would find in the south. Very polite face to face (but not in the car).

Yes, there is only one place to get good pizza in the whole city (Rosa's in Fairlie Poplar). But you can get great barbecue, mexican (one of the best I have ever been to, Zocalo), chinese, thai, and southern food.

Like many cities in the US, southern cities have their quirks and their plusses.

Some bonuses to living in GA: low gas tax (lower than NJ), free college to state schools if you hav e a 3.0 average in H.S., (must maintain through college as well).

Standard of living? Wages are a little lower, but so are many of the costs of living. Many of the same stores as up here (no shoprite though). Kroger, Super Walmart, Target and Publix are about as good as it gets and they are more expensive than up here for some reason. God help you if your local store is a Winn Dixie or a Piggly Wiggly.

Why am I up here now? Family, hate the humidity in summer, which is 6 months long down there. And bad air quality. I had an apartment in Vinings about 7 miles NW of midtown . I moved there in May, in October I realized I had a view of midtown. The smog is that bad folks.

3/18/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

While most realtors report the market conditions on Realtor.com as picking up the "hot season", one agent is reporting the true conditions.
If you are interested in his article it is in Realtor.com Market Conditions, by Michael Popoff. He has an article, "'Good Deal' Matter of Interpretation",
giving buyers tips for making lowball offers. He also tells the sellers know, the market has definitely cooled and they need to adjust their pricing.
Thank you for some honest reporting!

The article is on his website. Go to Realtor.com, Market conditions for Ocean Grove, NJ....

'Good Deal' Matter of Interpretation

3/18/2006 11:11:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
Grim-

One major demographic topic I haven't seen on this board is the shift of the baby boomers into retirement and how this will affect housing. While that does fit into some of the migration that we've seen, to me it's a unique (and major) event,that will probably have a significant impact on housing...

Thoughts, Grim...anyone?

8:24 AM


People are going to have to wait to retire. You can't retire if you haven't saved any money. People used to figure they could stop at 55. People are now realizing that they will need to work to 65, and may need to continue even beyond.

My father-in-law is turning 70, and he will keep working until at least 72. My uncle is 66 and working full time. A client of mine who is 58 retire from Lucent, but deciding golf was not that interesting, so he is starting a consulting business.

chicago

3/18/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

Off-topic - sorry

Is there an official scotch of the NNJ Real Estate Bubble Blog?

I vote for Laphroaig, although my second choice would be J&B, because my grandfather used to have a shot every morning for "medicinal purposes". He lived to 89.

3/18/2006 11:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Me and my wife were thinking about moving down South but you have to realize that the standard of living here in the North East is way above any area in the South."

I would say you have it exactly backwards.

The standard of living up north is terrible, everyone killing themselves to pay the mortgage, sitting in traffic, no time for family, people are unfriendly and untrusting, there is no sense of community.

3/18/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

regarding the demograhic shift of Baby boomers. You are talking about the wealthest, healthiest generation in the history of human beings. They have been part of the biggest historic real estate and stock appreciation of all time. For them, the real issue is health care. Its the echo Baby boomers who will foot the bill that may experience a demographic shift.

3/18/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

several points:

there are nice places to live in every area of the country. I have lived in Alabama, Florida, NY, RI, NH, and Michigan (and Scotland and Mass each for about 6 months). Additionally, I have close family members who live in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, California, Utah, Arizona, and Oregon. There are very nice places in each of these states, and I'm sure there are similarly nice places in the others.

The problem as I see it is that most people grow up without a lot of exposure to other places (except when they take the yearly family vacation to Florida or whatever). When they move someplace else, they can't stop noticing how "different" it is, and fail to see all the ways it might be as nice or better than where they're from.

With respect to the baby boomers, I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen to them. It would probably be better in some ways if most of them continued working, but a lot may not have that option (see, e.g., all of the older unionized employees who may be forced into early retirement).

Finally, with respect to the official board scotch, may I suggest the Balvenie?

3/18/2006 01:42:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Official scotch why Jameson of course!

3/18/2006 02:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Follow up on my boomer question...I think part of this is the weight of this big of a shift will have a pretty large impact. Even if they don't retire (or want to retire), many boomers will start to gear down in the working world or be let go. Many companies don't want workers over 50 and don't hide the fact.

Plus, the empty nest part of the equation will mean a shift from single family homes to condos and adult communities. They just won't want the work involved with maintaining houses.

You can also start to wonder how many will want to move to more enjoyable environments. I would venture to guess the immediate area around NYC will be less attractive even if there are family nearby. Either they will shift to something like a shore community or someplace less built up or congested. Or, south, not to stereotype, but it's a fact.

We'll begin to find out in late 2007, early 2008 what the potential impact will be.

3/18/2006 02:23:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

Forgot to mention that you were mentioned again in the NYT blog the walk through on the 14th concerning your auction entry. I am glad to see Damon Darlin creditting the bubble blogs. It seems like nearly a quarter of his entries are related to bubble blogs.

3/18/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

"Is there an official scotch of the NNJ Real Estate Bubble Blog?"
____________________________________

now this topic should have its own blog. ;)

Macallan or Cragganmore would get my vote for best single malt.

Dewars 12 is a solid blend IMHO.

3/18/2006 06:13:00 PM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

Glenmorangie. 18 year old. Neat.

3/18/2006 06:33:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

First the scotch..

Laphroaig, Oban, or Johnnie Blue are my usual choices..

3/18/2006 06:57:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

McCallan 18

3/18/2006 07:28:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

On 9/21/05 you posted that it was the market "top", and I think that was a prescient call.

Good work.

chicago

3/18/2006 08:47:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

one would have to be a moron to think that the standard of living in the north east is better than the south,nj is the most dense
in the country. we live like animals here. pizza and the yankees , what a joke

3/19/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger transmissionfluid said...

Hey Grim -
I was talking to a co-worker on Friday, and she was asking me about when we were planning to buy a house. I gave her my whole schpeil about the bubble and saving a lot of money while we rent.

I then told her about your study of the NY Times articles from the last bubble, and said that we were tracking at about 1989 - article for article.

She said that was funny because she and her husband had bought a place in 1989, and just a few years later, they sold it for half of what they paid for it!

3/19/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

real estate continues to fall out of favor as an 'investment'. this is the continuation of the change in market psychology that will deflate this bubble. while history doesn't repeat it does rhyme so i expect a # of similarities with the late 80's early 90's. i'ts obvious most new sellers are oblivious to the oncoming train wreck while some are beginning to get it.

sit back and watch the transformation folks. this is a good piec of history in the making.

3/19/2006 09:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did anyone happen to see Trump on Larry King? He said Real Estate is always the way to go, yes there were some people who had some problems with it in the early 90's but he wasnt one of them??? did'nt he go bankrupt in Real Estate? I seem to remember his debts having to be restructered in fancy speak.. He really pushed real estate as the way to riches last night, that should start the spring selling season off with a bang!

3/19/2006 10:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

trump has a number of get rich through real estate products on the market. books and tapes. he cant realy slam r.e. although rich dad poor dad has said its a bubble and takes credit for being part of the cause but his new book is before you quit your job. something like that. they all have an underlying reason.

3/19/2006 11:18:00 AM  
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4/15/2006 01:24:00 PM  
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4/19/2006 12:42:00 AM  

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