Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Lowball! 3/26 - 4/4

Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be 'hot'. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.

On to the list!

MLS# 2226668 - Ramsey, NJ
Original List Price $939,923
List Price $899,923
Sales Price $672,500 (25.3% Lowball, 28.5% off Original List)

MLS# 2098931 - Chester, NJ
List Price $2,400,000
Sales Price $1,875,000 (21.9% Lowball)

MLS# 2109205 - East Hanover, NJ
Original List Price $349,000
List Price $329,000
Sales Price $26,000 (19.7% Lowball, 24.1% off Original List)

MLS# 2235484 - Cedar Grove, NJ
List Price $1,825,000
Sales Price $1,500,000 (17.8% Lowball)

MLS# 2108126 - Newark, NJ
List Price $460,000
Sales Price $381,000 (17.2% Lowball)

MLS# 2098474 - Montville, NJ
List Price $1,294,800
Sales Price $990,000 (17.1% Lowball)

MLS# 2242989 - Florham Park, NJ
List Price $1,399,000
Sales Price $1,165,000 (16.7% Lowball)

MLS# 2226186 - Randolph, NJ
List Price $449,000
Sales Price $380,000 (15.4% Lowball)

MLS# 2210966 - Summit, NJ
Original List Price $1,295,000
List Price $1,195,000
Sales Price $1,025,000 (14.2% Lowball, 20.8% off Original List)

MLS# 2220533 - South Orange, NJ
List Price $1,100,000
Sales Price $945,000 (14.1% Lowball)

MLS# 2244095 - Green Twp, NJ
List Price $319,900
Sales Price $275,000 (14% Lowball)

MLS# 2239093 - Mahwah, NJ
List Price $1,625,000
Sales Price $1,410,000 (13.2% Lowball)

MLS# 2215829 - Ridgewood, NJ
List Price $2,200,000
Sales Price $1,925,000 (12.5% Lowball)

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

28 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

LOWBALL!!!!

BOYAAAAAH

4/04/2006 08:17:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

MLS# 2220533 - South Orange, NJ
List Price $1,100,000
Sales Price $945,000 (14.1% Lowball)



Who spends a million bucks to live in South Orange?

4/04/2006 08:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A FOOL BAGHOLDER NOT READING THIS BLOG!

4/04/2006 08:31:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

unrealtor,

It's a townhouse too..

grim

4/04/2006 08:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"MLS# 2109205 - East Hanover, NJ
Original List Price $349,000
List Price $329,000
Sales Price $265,000 (19.7% Lowball, 24.1% off Original List)"

Grim,
This one is definitly a bad example, this is giving us no hope )-: this house should have sold for 120,00 and it would have been over priced
KL

4/04/2006 08:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"MLS# 2109205 - East Hanover, NJ
Original List Price $349,000
List Price $329,000
Sales Price $265,000 (19.7% Lowball, 24.1% off Original List)"

Grim,
This one is definitly a bad example, this is giving us no hope )-: this house should have sold for 120,00 and it still would have been overpriced
KL

4/04/2006 08:38:00 PM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

Wow- great numbers! I have no idea who would spend that kind of money to live in some of these dump towns to begin with, though. Speaking of wild markets, we just put up some new numbers for New York City. Check 'em out if you want:

BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

4/04/2006 08:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For those who claim that some towns are bubble proof, here is some data for Tenafly in Bergen County , universally considered a sought after town nad only ten minutes from GW Bridge with high rated schools. The 1988 & 1989 figures may be off a little due to low volume in the data.

Cliffy

Year # of Sales Median Price

1988 1 $230,000
1989 6 $445,000
1990 22 $288,000
1991 36 $255,000
1992 32 $250,000
1993 47 $260,000
1994 65 $300,000
1995 53 $250,000
1996 69 $305,000
1997 83 $307,000
1998 86 $358,000
1999 133 $367,000
2000 94 $420,000
2001 97 $450,000
2002 92 $535,000
2003 105 $530,000

4/04/2006 08:48:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

lalalala

Two-Thirds of Lenders Nationwide Say U.S. in Midst of Real Estate Bubble - and Half Say Burst Has Begun or Will Shortly, According to Phoenix Lending Survey Results; 93 Percent of Lenders Predict Housing Prices Will Drop 10 - 20 Percent

4/04/2006 08:48:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

South Orange location is probably a flipper trying to sell one of Pulte's townhouses.

4/04/2006 10:04:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"This one is definitly a bad example, this is giving us no hope )-: this house should have sold for 120,00 and it would have been over priced."


KL, that shack sits on 2.8 acres.

Put your lawnmower in the shack, and build your dream house on nearly 3 acres!

4/04/2006 10:08:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

265K seems like an excellent price for 2.8 acres in East Hanover, except for one thing. Its a flood zone. That drives down value.

4/04/2006 11:05:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I work solely off the numbers and do not attempt to make any kind of subjective value call on these properties. This is a purely quantitative exercise.

grim

4/05/2006 06:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From one point of view, over time there should be fewer lowball's out there as people price their property closer to actual value.

I had looked at selling my condo in hoboken earlier this year and found the wide range in comp listing prices highly amusing. Properties that sold were selling at prices/sq ft found in earler 2004 while things sitting on the market were listed at last years figure + 20%.

4/05/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

How can I pull up these homes? All of the public sites I know of only show homes that are currently for sale, not those that sold. Thanks for any help.

4/05/2006 07:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
Can you include info on Middlesex county & Montgomery township as well in your lowball figures or let me know where I can get the relevant information
JR

4/05/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

I just found this link which I think will be helpful to some people on this blog:

http://www.state.nj.us/dca/lgs/taxes/05_data/taxes_05.xls

It gives tax information by city for all of NJ for the 2005 tax year. Gives avg property value, avg tax bill, school budgets, library budgets, etc., by town. I would copy it into an Excel file if you want to manipulate the data.

4/05/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BUY A HOUSE NOW BEFORE RATES GO UP!!!!

4/05/2006 12:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do NOT be a fool house bagholder and buy now.

Prices will be much lower in next 12 months. hehehe

Bob

4/05/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
Yeah, but it's an End Unit ;)

That must explain the $29K taxes.

4/05/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"That must explain the $29K taxes."

A condo with $30K in taxes + monthly association fees ($4-5K annually of non-deductable out-the-window money).

How much of a nut-case does someone have to be to spend $1,000,000 on a condo with $35K annual taxes and fees piled on top, and located in South Orange?

Add in private school ($15-20K annually per child) because your kids can't go to the public schools.

Has sanity gone out of style?

4/05/2006 05:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares?

This fool will be a casualty of the real estate bust.

4/06/2006 07:29:00 AM  
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4/18/2006 09:07:00 PM  
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4/24/2006 12:18:00 AM  
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4/25/2006 03:37:00 AM  
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