Thursday, April 20, 2006

Northeast Migration Outflow

From the NY Sun:

New York Is Losing People at Fastest Pace in America

New York State is losing more residents than any other state in the country, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics released early today.

Based on surveys taken between 2000 and 2004, the figures show that New York replaced California as the net migration outflow leader, with an average of 182,886 people leaving a year, nearly double California's average for the same period. California led the nation between 1990 and 2000.

The findings track the state-to-state movement in America. They do not include international immigration numbers.

The New York City metropolitan region - which includes Long Island and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania - also leads the country in migration outflow, with an average of 211,014 leaving a year. The number is higher than the state figure because many of those leaving the metropolitan region resettle in other areas of New York.
...
"Our economic rate of growth is even less now than it was in the '90s, and that may suggest that the out-migration is likely to intensify," a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Steven Malanga, said. "People can see very clearly how their lives are affected by slow economic growth or higher taxes."
...
"I think you miss the picture if you focus exclusively on people leaving," a professor of sociology at the City University of New York Graduate Center, Philip Kasinitz, said. "People have always left the city in large numbers. The question is, is that more than balanced by the people who are coming in?"
...
Overall, New York fits into the larger trend of residents moving away from the Northeast and toward the Sun Belt states and other warmer areas. In the past few years, the level of out-migration from the mid-Atlantic region declined slightly, but it remained the highest in the country. The South, meanwhile, continued to be the primary destination of any region, with Florida leading the way.

14 Comments:

Blogger pesche22 said...

its very simple. we live like animals around here and its
expensive

4/20/2006 07:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know many people who have moved to other states like NC and SC. They earn just as much as they would in NYC. A myth that salaries are that much higher here...

4/20/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Michelle said...

Must depend on your industry.

Here I literally get paid over TWICE what I was offered for the same job - at a LARGER company in terms of revenue - in North Carolina.

4/20/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Blogger bairen said...

Everyone I know who left NYC for FL is very happy. No more 2 hour commutes and seeing SWAT teams entering your building every other week. They always say what were we thinking to spend so many years living like that..

4/20/2006 07:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My wife and I will be traveling to DE, VA and NC this summer. I have pretty much had enough with NJ and believe life will be better elsewhere.

The corruption outrageous taxes a governor who doesn't know what the drinking age is, an ex governor who...well you know that story.

4/20/2006 01:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Personally, I think this is good news.
Maybe this will mean, in the future, less traffic, less sprawl, less pollution.
Let's face, most of the highly educated people who the financial firms and pharma's rely upon are not going to leave. Other's may, to seek better opportunities elsewhere, but that's just the way it is.

4/20/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, this is just like in California and Taxachutetts.

Well-educated young people (who are unable to buy a house) are leaving in droves and they are replaced by illegal immigrants and other low-income people who don't pay taxes and are often on welfare. Schools, police and hospitals will be overwhelmed..

California is a dangerous example what can happen.

Al Sharpton and his cronies take over NYC in a couple a years and we'll see ultra high tax and crime rates. Dinkins era will be back after Bloomy. I'm afraid that I have to leave NYC..This won't be pretty place once the next mayor takes control.

4/20/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One factor behind this outflow from NY/NJ that I havent seen mentioned is that of "sorting." Groups of all kinds, from high school cliques to entire adult populations, sort themselves according to who "fits in and who doesn't." A large number of the people who are migrating out of NY/NJ are people who can't "make it here" for one reason or another. For one reason or another (lack of marketable skills, a lower than average IQ, etc) they can't command the salary that would enable them to buy a house and raise a family in this area. So they move to Florida. Even if places like Florida are booming with population, if that population is itself average or worse in its abilities, what gain is Florida really getting? A large part of the population around the Orlando area, for instance, are transplanted New Yorker outer borough people who have moved there for the "more affordable cost of living," as The Times reported a few weeks ago. I don't mean to downplay the loss that NJ has. But if "sorting" is indeed the predominant factor behind this shift, then maybe we need to look at this issue in a fresh light.

4/20/2006 07:29:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

"A large number of the people who are migrating out of NY/NJ are people who can't "make it here" for one reason or another. For one reason or another (lack of marketable skills, a lower than average IQ, etc) they can't command the salary that would enable them to buy a house and raise a family in this area. So they move to Florida."

This is a rather brave assumption, to say the least.

On another thread, someone posted a link to US Census data that compares 2000-2004 with the trends from 1990-2000.

The largest MSA's (metro statistical areas--ie. big citties), mostly located in the "blue" (democratic states) have been losing population.

You mean to say you think it is only the dummies who can't cut it who are moving?

Lets just take a look:
From the U.S. Census website:

Annual net migration 90-00 00-04

New York/NNJ area: -11.1 -11.4
Los Angeles -15.3 -9.3
Chicago -6.7 -6.8
Philadelphia -5.1 -1.5
Detroit -5.6 -6.0
San Francisco -5.5 -14.7
Boston -4.8 -9.5

Sorting is going on alright, but it has nothing to do with IQ.

I think the trend in this data is fairly clear, although imperfect. The confiscatory taxation and excessive govt. involvement in these areas is driving the productive people away.

4/21/2006 04:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So... how exactly are you proving that dummies are not the ones who are largely moving? You quote ambiguous Census figures, and I'm referencing a New York Times article from a few weeks ago that blatantly supports my thesis. My theory may offend your politically correct sensibilities-- but that isn't enough to make it wrong, my friend.

As to excessive taxation, it is often the most productive people who support these tax schemes. You know that our most productive people (wealth, intelligence) are concentrated in the coasts in "blue" liberal states. These latte liberal types largely endorse robbing Peter to pay Paul.

4/21/2006 05:51:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

It seems like I touched a liberal soft spot.

I have little doubt that the intelligence hypothesis is something those with cushy jobs at the NYT would like to believe.

Obviously, only an "idiot" could fail to see the brilliance in the analysis of the left wing NYT.

I also have little doubt that it is wrong.

The fact remains--the areas of the U.S. with the most outflow migration are blue states, with high regulatory burdens, and high taxation.

The taxation thesis can easily explain the same data, as opposed to some snobbish "IQ" hypothesis.

There is also the age factor. The idea that it is the dumb people who are moving south is simply silly. Only an arrogant idiot would believe it.

4/21/2006 06:45:00 PM  
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