Sunday, April 09, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.

As always, anything goes!

122 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Sorry updates were light today. I'll make up for it this weekend.

grim

4/07/2006 04:09:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

How about a discussion of the 10Y yield?

4.96

Oversold? Risk premiums being priced in? Overreaction to the economic data today?

4/07/2006 04:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boooooyaaaah!

Boycott open Houses.

Housing Bust progressing.

It takes time for sellers to accept....greed and denial are strong emotions.

BOOOOYAAAAAH!

Bob

4/07/2006 04:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Michelle said...

Anyone else get Madonna tickets yet?

*oops*

Sorry. Wrong board.

LOL.

Although BTW, if you think housing prices are crazy, check out concert tickets lately. It;s costng my $350 big ones plus ticketmaster service fees to go see Madonna!!!

4/07/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

4/07/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
How about a discussion of the 10Y yield? 4.96

Oversold? Risk premiums being priced in? Overreaction to the economic data today?

5:17 PM


It should have a "6" handle not a "4 almost 5" handle.

I make you a bet that going from 4 to 5 [9+ months] is going to be a heck of a lot slower than 5 to 6.

We are only 100 bps from some serious news.

4/07/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

I contemplated seeing David Gilmour at Radio City, but for the $300 they wanted for a ticket, i'd be better off buying the entire Pink Floyd CD collection.

-Richie

4/07/2006 04:34:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Depeche Mode at the Borgata is a bargain at $125. I guess in reality it is really $625 when you factor in that I will lose $500 at craps and blackjack

4/07/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

4/07/2006 04:38:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

Wall Street? Is this a recruiting trip? ;)

Do the Anti-Cost dudes know this?

4/07/2006 04:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Depeche Mode, David Gilmour, and Madonna--not the usual caliber of conversation . . . . It must be a back-to-the-80s Friday!

4/07/2006 05:21:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12193786/

Figured I'd throw out a little bit of news on the clamp down. BTW grim did you get to ring the bell today?

4/07/2006 06:47:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

Depeche Mode at the Borgata is a bargain at $125. I guess in reality it is really $625 when you factor in that I will lose $500 at craps and blackjack

Plus tolls on the parkway!

4/07/2006 07:09:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Walked passed the NYSE, I wasn't down on Wall Street since 9/11.

Was actually nice to see the M16's patrolling the area.

grim

4/07/2006 08:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saw 3 open house signs at fsbo's on my way home from work tonight. I don't remember seeing open house signs on a Friday before!

4/07/2006 08:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Still-Pissed-Trish said...

Dear Grim!
I wish you had an area where we could post "Wretched Realtor News!"

I admit, I worked with two lovely women at Burgdorff in NJ. (yes, Burgdorff, boo, but the ladies themselves were VEDDY UPPER CRUSTY PERFECT AND LOVELY.) Then i switched to another Realtor.

OMG! She became my dual agent and I cannot even tell you how badly she almost screwed me! If I was not the paranoid bitch that I am (Read, I used to work in insurance) I would be SO SCREWED.

Basically, she verbally stated my Radon (and I have posted prior on the topic of Radon, so "Truth in Advertising") level was acceptable. What she failed to mention was that the test was declared invalid by my housing inspector because the seller had disregarded his explicit instructions and OPENED THE DOORS TO THE HOME. (Bad Seller, Bad Seller! Actually, I like the seller, he was stupid, but OK, he had bigger things than me to worry about) What irritated me was that my Realtor ACTUALLY LIED TO ME! (okay, call me bloody Pollyanna!)

I happened to open up my mail and read, "Radon reading 2.5, Test Invalid Due to Open Door."

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaak!! I immediately e-mailed my attorney post haste (i.e. fix this!) and my realtor (you cannot sweep this under the rug, I am not liable for your seller screwing up my test.) Because my Realtor is a Dual Agent. (read "Double Agent') she did not help me whatsoever and managed to leave me an obnoxious voicemail message,"Your inability to sign off on the Radon Test is costing my customer thousands of dollars!"

Halooo! I AM your bloody customer! Can you believe that?!?!? Finally, I e-mailed everyone, no tickee no lookee (a.k.a No Warranty, No Signee) She stopped talking to me that day - Uggggh, and she still gets her 3 percent!!!

Of course, I fought for and received my Radon Warranty, but I am still PISSED! Please warn your readers to be EXTRA CAREFUL when using an Dual (Double) Agent. They are COMPLETELY USELESS so as a buyer, you had better also have a fabulous Housing Inspector and Lawyer just to pick up the slack.

4/07/2006 08:39:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

I'm with you Bob, boycott open houses!

4/07/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Hope those seats are in the front 10 rows Michelle!

4/07/2006 08:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Depeche Mode at the Borgata is a bargain at $125."


I was going to buy tickets to that show, but was unfamiliar with the Borgata venue. The whole place is standing only for concerts?

Is it good to see a show there, or is it a mob scene without assigned seats, and everyone pushing to get up front?

4/07/2006 08:50:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

I haven't seen a show at the Borgata. However, I've walked throught the event center when it was set up for a concert. The floor is general admission, but it has risers of about 25 rows that have assigned seats. The main issue is that the venue is SMALL (5,000?), and the risers are relatively close to the stage, so the view is elevated and close. It just looks as if it will be great.

I just have to make sure I show up with no cash, ATM cards, credit cards.

David Lereah gives me A Pain That I'm Used To.

4/07/2006 08:59:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

The Borgata has two theaters. I took my wife to see Seal (her favorite..and only $50/ticket!!!) in the smaller one. The place only fit about 1,000. Assigned seats, smaller setting, actually pretty nice.

4/07/2006 10:08:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

How about a discussion of the 10Y yield?

I think the jobs report did it for today. More new jobs added than expected. The bond market is starting to think the Fed may continue raising rates after the next hike, which is pretty much a lock at this point.

4/07/2006 10:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is anybody here at all familar with what's going on in Wildwood, North Wildwood and the crest, there are currently about 2000 properties for sale. Does anyone have first hand knowledge of the situation there.
Thanks

(PS) I have checked the jersey shore bubble blog nothing there.

4/07/2006 10:45:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

I have a question. For much of early 2006, the yield curve was either flat or inverted. In recent weeks, it seems to have sprung back to life. What does this mean in terms of the yield curve’s capability to “predict” a recession?

4/07/2006 10:48:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Is anybody here at all familar with what's going on in Wildwood?

Last time I was there was September. Massive construction was taking place. At least one set of condos were being built on every block. It was like nothing I have ever seen anywhere else. Hotels and SFH’s were being knocked down to build condos. Many of the year-round residents were selling to developers and heading a few miles inland where houses were still reasonable. A number of the remaining hotels converted to “condotels”. Even at that time there were more “for sale” signs than I could count. Many of the speculators were coming in from NYC and North Jersey.

4/07/2006 10:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks rentinginnj

I have a friend purchased one of those new const. with the idea of flipping, she did not count on making on mtg payment has mad 5 ): I myself have not gone down there but just the records I can acess indicate to me she is in trouble. I will be taking a ride down by the end of this month as my husband and I have been going down for years, knew all the motels but so many are gone now we don't know where to book. Last time we went summer of 04 they were building like crazy and 2 hotels we had stayed in prior were gone. We stayed across from a knock down and it was too noisy. This should be and interesting trip.

4/07/2006 11:12:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Might as well take advantage of one of those new condos. They are all over the place. The end of April should be pretty cheap as its still way before the vacation season.

If you are looking for quite hotel, you could try the Harbor Mist on 11th in North Wildwood. Typical old fashion Wildwood motel. It's the last hotel left on the street. It's surrounded by new condos, but construciton is completed, so it should be quite.

4/07/2006 11:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To: Still Pissed Trish and Grim:

I too would like to see a Wretched Realty Sales Agent thread, as I am sure there are many enlightening truths, which can be exposed, since we all know, the real estate industry has a whole trunk of secrets, scams and schemes which do not see the light of day. It would be great to expose them through a discussion.

The first one, and most common, which comes to mind, is- right after a buyer makes a bid on a house, (even if it has been sitting without offers for months) - the realty sales agent says- “another bid is coming in tonight”, “another couple is making an offer.” Obviously, this outright and most common LIE is to make you bid higher, or for you to make compromises in the transaction process down the line with negotiations.

Another is the "agent" is not YOUR agent, but is a agent of the BROKER, whom they work for. Has any agent or broker told you that?

Can anyone think of others?

4/08/2006 06:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, Does anyone have the full text to this article, I'm dieing to read the whole thing:

Flipper says good-bye to Jersey

Diary of a real estate flipper

It wants me to pay 149.00 for the priviledge of reading this article.

4/08/2006 07:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rentinginnj,

On your question on the predictive power of the inverted yield curve now that it has steepened, the original study was by a professor, Campbell Harvey. His study found that when the 3 month T-bill yield is higher than the 10 year T-bond yield for 90 days or more, a recession was likely. In the recent case the curve was inverted for only 38 days. Even if no recession occurs, the predictive power of the inverted curve is not rebutted.

4/08/2006 07:43:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Just a heads up, I'm going to keep pushing the "Weekend Open Discussion" thread at the top, but new posts will show up below..

jb

4/08/2006 08:04:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

Can I log a complaint about Blogger?

No me gusta.

Es muy dificil para usar.

chicago

4/08/2006 08:56:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

saw a few large reductions on properties in chatham, madison and westfield over the past week. 2 of them originally started at $749k and are both now down to $649k. the message here is don't bother with the asking price, it's meaningless. look at the comps. i have a feeling we'll see some more aggressive price reductions as the spring season marches on and properties continue to sit.

4/08/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent article about NJ:

The Mob That Whacked Jersey
by Steven Malanga

How rapacious government withered the Garden State

http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_2_new_jersey.html

4/08/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This might be completely unrealistic, but here goes...My wife and I work in NYC (mid-town) and I am looking for a home in NJ that is a reasonable commute. We also have kids that are starting school. We're probably somewhere in the middle in terms of income. Based on that, can I get suggestions for towns/places to live?

4/08/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Michelle: Please go on the world tour. Do not hurry back. We will miss your insightful comments. Cheers.

4/08/2006 09:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Anon 745am

I would like to see a wretched real estate thread -if only to explain some things from a different point of view.
"The first one, and most common, which comes to mind, is- right after a buyer makes a bid on a house, (even if it has been sitting without offers for months) - the realty sales agent says- “another bid is coming in tonight”, “another couple is making an offer.” Obviously, this outright and most common LIE is to make you bid higher, or for you to make compromises in the transaction process down the line with negotiations. '

I have had so many instances like the one you describe above, however I am not the listing agent I am the buyer's agent. I too have felt many times that they are lying to me. All of a suddent I have a buyer and now there is a lot of buyers. I cannot accuse the agent of lying ( I wish I could) and I have to relay the information to my clients. I relay it along with my opinion, which is they should not have to buy a house (major life purchase) under these circumstances, I assure them I will find them another equally as good or better home - this one was not meant to be- and every other thing I can say to convince them they should not be involved in this. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt. You have no idea how many times I wished buyers would stop this overbidding, doing anything to get the house. I have felt that as soon as they stop ( collectivly) this nonsense of skyrocketing prices would come to an end. But had some of my buyers listened to me a couple years ago they would not have gotten the appreciation they did, so I look like and idiot.
So while I have never said there was an offer when it was'nt told to me I hage having to relay it to my clients, when I have doubted it myself. There have been many instances that know of that I lost customers to other agents in my feeble attempts to save them from themselves.
KL

4/08/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

KL,

That exact scenario happened to a colleague at work.

Home was on the market about 90 days now. Neighbors say it was on the market longer than that.

Put in a verbal offer, and all of the sudden they were asked to bid higher because they had another offer come in.

Needless to say, the sellers agent called the buyers agent a few days later to ask if they were still interested. I told him put in an even lower bid with a 24h contingency, but they decided to pass.

The description on MLS was updated to include the words "Motivated Sellers" the next day.

grim

4/08/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Just an FYI, the verbal offer was a lowball, a little more than 10% under current asking (I believe the house was already reduced 20-30k).

grim

4/08/2006 10:09:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
This might be completely unrealistic, but here goes...My wife and I work in NYC (mid-town) and I am looking for a home in NJ that is a reasonable commute. We also have kids that are starting school. We're probably somewhere in the middle in terms of income. Based on that, can I get suggestions for towns/places to live?

10:07 AM

================================

There was a discussion some weeks back about this topic. If Blogger wasn't such a bad interface, we could easily direct you to it.

My Quickie list: Montclair area; Summit area; Westfield only; Ridgewood area; Gold Coast for elementary ages only / private school preferred

4/08/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger JMW977 said...

Re: Wildwood

I have spent a weekend in Wildwood Crest every June for the past dozen or so years.

The demolition of motels for condos has been going on for several years, but it has certainly accelerated since 2003.

I read recently (here?) that there was a 30+ month supply of inventory in Cape May County.

Insofar as a place to stay goes, we take advantage of a great early season deal the Bal Harbour runs. We get a suite for a long weekend (Thurs-Sun) in June for under $300 total. It's an oceanfront hotel with a nice pool area. It's not the Ritz, but it's pretty nice for Wildwood.

4/08/2006 10:33:00 AM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

the realty sales agent says- “another bid is coming in tonight”, “another couple is making an offer.”
-----------------------------------

Happened to me twice. 2 other times...there really was a bidding war.

I used to cringed every time I heard "give us your best & last". What a bunch of whores.

4/08/2006 10:48:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"The first one, and most common, which comes to mind, is- right after a buyer makes a bid on a house, (even if it has been sitting without offers for months) - the realty sales agent says- “another bid is coming in tonight”, “another couple is making an offer.” Obviously, this outright and most common LIE is to make you bid higher, or for you to make compromises in the transaction process down the line with negotiations."


I've seen this several times before. I just paid no attention to what 'someone else' was doing, and offered what I felt the property was worth.

Once, I think there were actually other bidders, but I left my offer at what I felt was fair, and said "that's my offer." I'd rather 'lose a deal,' than bid against either myself, or some loony buyer with a 0% down ARM.

4/08/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"the message here is don't bother with the asking price, it's meaningless. look at the comps."


I don't think comps will have much value either, unless you're looking at comps from 2002.

4/08/2006 11:07:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"There have been many instances that know of that I lost customers to other agents in my feeble attempts to save them from themselves."

KL, you sound like a decent, honest person. If some of your clients can't see that, then they're too stupid to realize anything, and will jump head-first into a bad deal regardless of the agent they have.

4/08/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

I'd rather 'lose a deal,' than bid against either myself, or some loony buyer with a 0% down ARM.
-----------------------------------

so true UNREALTOR. I fear many buyers in 04/05 fell for that nonsense.

alot of these panic purchases were done w/o inspections too!

crazy stuff... especially now looking back at it with sober eyes.

4/08/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

KL

you can represent me anyday! :-)

4/08/2006 11:28:00 AM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

Based on that, can I get suggestions for towns/places to live?
-----------------------------------

just to add a few "value" towns near CHICAGO's list.

IMO... Cranford, Berkley Heights, Waldwick, Glen Ridge & Fort Lee (in school 1 or 4 zone) should offer more choices & a decent commute.

schools in these towns range from excellent to pretty good.

none of these towns a real "bargains" price wise... but hey what is now?

4/08/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

I used to cringed every time I heard "give us your best & last". What a bunch of whores.

---

this happened to me recently and my agent thought the selling agent was lying but she wasn't. we bid below asking because the property just wasn't worth anymore and viola we lost out. no biggie. my saying is if someone outbid you and you bid according to market they're overpaying.

4/08/2006 11:41:00 AM  
Anonymous still pissed Trish said...

Hmmm, I hadn't thought of it before, but my Double Agent also threw that "bidding war" chestnut at me. I had a motivated seller (he was moving the next month to California) and the original offering price had already been reduced from $579k to $535k. Don't get too excited, the house was priced far too high Obviously, whomever said "initial offering prices mean nothing" was correct. The house had sold at $488k a year prior, seller had redone retaining walls, hardwood floors, installed all new appliances, electrical, plumbing, fixtures, ripped out ancient shrubs, installed garden beds, new driveway, etc. I still wanted to bid less than $535k, so we settled at $534k with some furniture/fixtures thrown into the mix. I still think I overpaid, but my friend crunched some numbers and said that the price was was fair considering the prior state of the home and the upgrades. It was a 4bd 2ba in a cul de sac, mediocre school district, but good for elementary. Nice neighbors but too many children (a.k.a spawn) toddling around the neighborhood. Nasty deer chewing up the fauna also and potential for Coyotes.

I wanted to bid $525k, but my Double Agent mentioned that there was one last group of buyers coming in THAT EVENING so I kept the price at $534k so as not to alienate the seller.

She was also "not allowed" to cancel the OPEN HOUSE that was scheduled for that weekend. She couldn't cancel it since it had been scheduled less than 10 days prior and her agency would not let her cancel.

Yes, this is what she told me. Now, she would have lost my portion of the sale (3% comission I guess) if I was outbid because she was "buyers agent" also. I wonder what kind of tour she gave prospective buyers? Were the sellers fairly represented in this case? Probably not.

My lawyer (a.k.a God's Real Estate Lawyer) was blowing several simultaneous gaskets and was certain she was setting me up for a bidding war. I told him and her point blank: this is what I'm paying and if I am outbid then it was not meant to be - we had already gone over our projected $500k amount and this was it. Anything higher and our LTV (or whatever the acronym is) would have been a joke. Surprisingly enough, no one else was interested in the home when she marked it "under attorney review" prior to the Open House...Sneaky cheeky Double Agent! Yes, I'm still pissed!

4/08/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

I was just looking through some listings, and have some advice: ask a realtor to send you all "Sold" listings from the last 36 months for the town in which you're looking.

It's really an eye-opener to see what was sold, and for how much.

Buying now is insane.

4/08/2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous michelle said...

SPT,

While your agent does sound like a rat fink, I would think that the sales price of $534K given the $488K paid last year was reasonable (not saying the $488K was reasonable in the first place though, just talking about the increase). After paying the 6% commissions the seller is left with about $512K, and the upgrades you mentioned could have easily cost more than $22K. I wouldn't be surprised if the seller took a net loss on that house. We had to replace a retaining wall at our last house and that alone was $15K.

unrealtor: Yes, I'm in 6th row for Madonna but the $350 price is for ALL floor seats and good lower level seats!

The Borgata is a FABULOUS place to see shows. The floor is general admission and the risers are seats, and CF is right in saying that even the seats are close and quite good. It's one of my favorite venues period (although House of Blues at the Showboat now has the best poker room in AC...)

I'll be catching DM at PNC this go around - a venue that still provides excellent value for its lawn seats. Last year many shows were only $5!!! Looking forward to their summer schedule announcement.

Chicagofinance, your ability to combine Lareah and DM into one concise sentence to bring the thread back OT left me both seriously impressed and with a case of the giggles!

In my own attempt to make my comments here germane, let me add that a wide variety of excellent live shows is one of the reasons I'm glad we live in the NYC metro area. I happen to love this kind of entertainment, and had we moved to Asheville, NC it would have been virtually unavailable. NONE of the acts I'm seeing in the next few months (5 shows so far) are playing anywhere near that area - Atlanta would have been the closest. So for all the things that may suck about living here, this is one lovely bright spot for me.

4/08/2006 12:44:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

"...But had some of my buyers listened to me a couple years ago they would not have gotten the appreciation they did, so I look like and idiot.

So while I have never said there was an offer when it was'nt told to me I hage having to relay it to my clients, when I have doubted it myself. There have been many instances that know of that I lost customers to other agents in my feeble attempts to save them from themselves.

KL"


KL:

I know the feeling. I don't even have a good answer for you. People's [i.e. client's] perception of what they want trumps EVERYTHING. In my field, [in many instances] there is such a chasm between what people perceive and what is.

We just lost a ten year client who wanted an 8% return with no risk. We said that it wasn't available under current market conditions. They disagreed and went to an insurance specialist who sold them an annuity with a 7-year lock-up, annual fees approaching 3%, and an 8% teaser rate that expires in 12 months.

I mean what are you supposed to say or do?

About 2 years from now these people are going to be really upset when they figure out the mistake they just made. My business is out the money, the client is worse off, and some polyester suit is going to be driving the newest BMW.

Feh!

That's why they invented Scotch!

4/08/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

From the April 2006 edition of the Journal of Financial Planning - the Observe Column. Not that I agree with the conclusion, but it is published in a very public place.
================================
Leaving Home in 2015…

Home prices in the United States could collapse by 2015 if the predictions of a Federal Reserve
economist prove correct. The economist, Robert Martin, out of the Federal Reserve’s division of international finance, says the exit of baby boomers from the workforce, along with a concurrent drop in productivity, will decimate the housing market.

Martin says housing prices will peak between 2005 and 2010, and begin collapsing by 2015. He predicts prices to decline
30 percent on an inflation-adjusted
basis over the next 50 years.

The decline won’t be so severe
if baby boomers work beyond age 65 or if productivity gains are larger than anticipated.

4/08/2006 01:20:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Here's the Borgata seating chart, is this layout the correct one for concerts?

Link 1:
http://www.eventinventory.com/EIBOVenueMap.cfm?eid=237&vid=2972&e_type=2

Link 2:
http://tinyurl.com/efdzg


Seems the "GA" (General Admission) section takes up the first 50 rows, and the assigned seats (sections A through E) are behind all that?

I imagine for DM, people will be camped out at the door at 7:00AM to get up front, so the best one can hope for is 50th row seats?

Some places still sell tickets to the show (at a premium), so if the situation is not as bad as I describe above, please let me know.

4/08/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dead Open Houses. No wind in sail.

Boooyaaaaah!

Housing Bust

hehehe

Bob

4/08/2006 01:23:00 PM  
Anonymous michelle said...

unrealtor:

The yellow sections on the links you provided (which is correct) are all on risers so you can see above the GA floor people.

Normall for GA shows you have your diehards who show up that morning (camping out isn't allowed). Most people will start to line up around 6PM for 8PM doors though. If you show up at 8PM you could usually expect to have maybe 30 people in front of you for the Borgata.

Warning: once you're in at a GA show, make sure you don't want to go to the bar or the bathroom. Plus, for most acts you need to suffer through an opening act, which can result in lots of standing and a sore back!

Go for riser seats for Borgata, or just pick up a cheapie lawn seat for DM at PNC and have lots of room to spread out and dance! Also still some decent seats left at PNC.

4/08/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last year this house was listed originally for $598K and then it was reduced to $579K until the listing was expired
http://listings.gsmls.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/PrtBuyFul/PrtBuyFul.asp?prp=Mls&MlsNumList=2109259

Same house is listed again at $629K. Let's see what happened this time..
http://listings.gsmls.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/PrtBuyFul/PrtBuyFul.asp?EMailKey=17507779&prp=mls

4/08/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

unrealtor:

[apologies to grim and others for hijacking this thread]

The Borgata Event Center has different set-ups, I should have mentioned this issue. The reserve seating on the risers has 5 sections 10-14 seats wide with 25 rows A-Y. From what I recall, there will not be a bad seat in the house, but the stage is low, so if you are short, you will want to avoid General Admission, also the first 4 or 5 rows of the risers are not really above the level of GA. I would think an ideal seat would be Section D [catwalk side] rows E-M.

From what I have heard, when they played there in December, a number of people in the reserve seats decided to go down into the General Admission anyway [they were allowed], and so the risers had many empty seats so people filled in. Whatever you do, try to avoid the last row.

The place is small - 3700.

4/08/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

michelle:

:)

chicago

4/08/2006 03:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks all for your help re: wildwood I am actually taking a ride in a couple weeks to book for our summer vacation. I usually book without going down but I want to see the place 1st this time.
My most important question was really for my girlfriends sake, regarding her ability to drop this condo she has gotten herself into. I think her chances are very slim at this point to make money - and will probaly lose money.. but I think they are going to hold out as long as possible with high hopes

4/08/2006 04:51:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

I just looked at room rates for the borgota and it is insane. a comedian i love (Jim Norton) is performing there on May 13th and I really wanted to go down and stay for my birthday which is the 15th, and its 450 bucks a night!

4/08/2006 05:43:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"apologies to grim and others for hijacking this thread"

Thanks Michelle and Chicago! I think I'll get tickets.

Oh, and you can't hijack an Open Thread! It's open!

Thanks again.

4/08/2006 07:50:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I really wanted to go down and stay for my birthday which is the 15th, and its 450 bucks a night!"

Oh yeah, have to consider driving logistics for Atlantic City, so a room must be tacked on the concert ticket price. Ugh, getting pricy for a concert, and the PNC and Jones Beach dates aren't good.

Off to do some hotel room shopping in AC...

4/08/2006 07:53:00 PM  
Anonymous michelle said...

Madonna's show is on a Sunday so we've got 3 free rooms booked among my family of gamblers!

AC's rooms are almost always freebies for lots of folks during the week; they make up for it on the weekends I suppose.

CF, I'm shocked that you gamble on 2 games that don't have positive expected value! Would have pegged you as a poker player.

Good luck on your search, unrealtor!

4/08/2006 10:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You get "free" rooms in AC because you have already handed your money to the casino at the tables. Nothing to brag about.

Sort of like buying a house in this market that is %20-40 overpriced. A sucker move.

4/09/2006 08:35:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

"CF, I'm shocked that you gamble on 2 games that don't have positive expected value! Would have pegged you as a poker player."

I like the "odds" bet in craps. The one bet in the house that pays off true odds to the bet.

BJ is very social.

As we know with real estate, not everything is about good investing.

My rule: whatever I lose, my wife gets to spend an equivalent amount at Ann Taylor, Searle, J.Jill etc.

Don't sound like no positive NPV to me.
:p

4/09/2006 08:46:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

"You get "free" rooms in AC because you have already handed your money to the casino at the tables. Nothing to brag about."

Borgata has a standing offer of free rooms from Sunday to Thursday nights. Never stayed there though.

I am a big fan of Starwood Hotels, so I usually stay gratis at the Sheraton on a weekend, as I will on 5/20. Cheapest room is $300+ otherwise.

4/09/2006 08:51:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

in atlantic city i stay at the days inn (walking distance to the boardwalk) for $129 a night. why spend the ridiculous money to stay at a casino?

4/09/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

grim
ask the highjackers to leave

waste of time

4/09/2006 09:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

pesche22:

Isn't the title of this thread "Weekend Open Discussion?"

How can you highjack an open discussion?

4/09/2006 09:16:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I don't mind off-topic discussion. It helps build a sense of community.

The more active the discussion and comments areas are, the more often people visit, and the more often new people tend to stick around.

grim

4/09/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

waste of time

4/09/2006 09:30:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Ben's Money and Metals blog just posted this one up.

Be prepared for a crisis, EU regulators are told

FINANCIAL regulators in all EU countries are to be asked today to prepare for the collapse of a big hedge fund or a similar sudden financial shock. EU finance ministers and central bankers, meeting in Vienna, were told that the collapse of a hedge fund could now destabilise European financial systems as well as the financial markets.

They have equally raised anxieties about the rapid growth of private equity. They fear that this could unravel if one of the key sources of funds or markets for selling on companies dries up. Officials also argue that many regulators do not understand the risks involved in the £10,000 billion market in credit derivatives, which are traded privately between banks rather than on public exchanges.

4/09/2006 09:41:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I'm beginning to seeg a new realtorspeak buzzword around:

"Price Improved"

Anyone else noticing this lately?

grim

4/09/2006 09:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good morning
Welcome to another miserable day for realtors.

Boooooyaaaah!

Bob

4/09/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

price improved.. of course.
these dirt bags are getting
desperate

4/09/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Investor said...

Blackstone, a public company, has a well-deserved reputation as a savvy real estate group. Will their Boca Raton investment blow up in their face? People interested in the future of real estate should read more ....

4/09/2006 10:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BUBBLE CYCLE

Fools get infactuated with the idea of wealth and the ease with which it could be procured. This bubble has created its own social reality far removed from past standards of value. Caution is tossed aside by many bubble participants and justifications have been made about why things are really different this time in the housing market.
In this housing bubble market, excessive risk has been justified as prudent and those of us that did not buy into this isanity have been brushed aside as to conservative.
Now that the momentum uis sudsiding denial is been entrenched, but initial stages of panic are setting in now.
As the panice deepens over the next 12 months capitulation with hit in anout 12-18 months when things look really dire for sellers and speculators.

I will make sure i am compensated for the BS I had to listen to and the time and patience I have had to endure. Bidding will be a pleasure. price concessions will be the in thing.

4/09/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

I'm beginning to seeg a new realtorspeak buzzword around:

"Price Improved"

Anyone else noticing this lately?:

I have seen "New Price"

4/09/2006 11:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Need some advice, please...

I currently live in a rent controlled 4 family building in northern NJ. The owner of the property plans to demolish the building, subdivide and put up two new houses.

I received a letter from the landlord's attorney, requesting that I vacate within 90 days.
I've had one consultation with a lawyer, who told me that the landlord has no legal right to evict.

I've been told that I should have a decent shot at getting a buyout from the owner, and I'm going to hire a lawyer to help me negotiate. I have no idea what $ range to shoot for. Any suggestions?

Thanks in advance!

4/09/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the LL lives in one of the units you could be SOL. But if they're all rentals I think you're covered by no-evict laws.

The actual laws are a few keyboard strokes away. Let google show you the way.

4/09/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm definitely covered by the no-evict law. I've done the web research, as well as professional legal consultatations. I just have to make up my mind between two lawyers.

I'm not naive enough to believe that arson, etc. doesn't happen when you try to stand in the way of a builder trying to make a quick $1M, particularly in what I believe is a declining market.

Just wondering what you folks think the going rate would be for a buyout. I'll move on, but I want a "package".

I've lived here 10 years, currently pay $750 for 2BR/1BA w/laundry, parking and yard.

4/09/2006 01:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that's disgusting. Why do tenants think they're OWED something?

Who are you to stand in the way of what the OWNER wants to do with their property? Where does this sense of entitlement come from? If you'd like to call the shots, then you should hold the title.

You've been given 90 days notice and I think the only thing that should be in your "package" is a swift kick in the butt on the way out.

4/09/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any thoughts about the idea of purchasing a condo in the edgewater area along the hudson? From everything I have read here, I am very leary of purchasing anything in the foreseeable future... I know the prices for that area are sky high so I will proably wait anyway.

4/09/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The LL made a choice to grant a leasehold estate to the tenant in exchange for rent.

The LL knew the rules going in and accepted them as part of business risk.

If the tables were turned and vacancies were a big problem, how would you feel about the tenant saying "who is the OWNER to stand in the way of what the *I* want to do with my tenancy?"

Being a LL means giving up certain rights to the leased property in accordance to the lease agreement and LL-tenant laws.

If a LL doesn't want to deal with these risks then maybe he shouldn't be a LL.

4/09/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Was out driving around doing errands... Didn't notice as many open house signs as last weekend.

grim

4/09/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The BubbleTrack blog was out shooting some pictures in Hoboken yesterday.. Worth a look.

For-Sale Sign Fiesta Part II: Hoboken Horror

grim

4/09/2006 03:55:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

nice find - very relevant


FINANCIAL regulators in all EU countries are to be asked today to prepare for the collapse of a big hedge fund or a similar sudden financial shock.

4/09/2006 03:58:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

saw this also - for those who are not aware, Little Silvered does a good job with his Shore Blog. It just happens to be very Monmouth/Ocean county specific. The reason I mention it, is that he has ties and interest in Hoboken. He often draws a link between condo buyers in Hoboken are the eventual house buyers in Monmouth County. If people can't sell their condos in Hoboken, they won't be able to buy their first home in the 'burbs. You can use his logic for every town in NNJ.


The BubbleTrack blog was out shooting some pictures in Hoboken yesterday.. Worth a look.

4/09/2006 04:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One of the funnier things in hoboken ( i live there btw) is that a good portion of the new residential construction is designed to attract couples and young families.

Unfortunately, there has been very little growth in the retail area to support that market since the prime retail locations are dominated by the following types of stores:

- Realtors
- Banks
- Cell Phone stores (might just be a passing fad, but there are a ton on washington street)
- College oriented bars

Note how little any of those serve the new target demographic. Whats worse, the smaller family run restaurants/businesses are being pushed out with rent increases.

4/09/2006 05:31:00 PM  
Anonymous RW said...

Drove by a house in mountainside with a for sale sign with realtor's name posted underneath. her name was,,,,LINDA LIES... I wanted to stop and take a picture but didn't have time. Too funny.

4/09/2006 05:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's a thread going on at the "kannekt" BBS which tells of wildly successful open houses in Hoboken.

It smells a lot like Realtor® propaganda spam.

Anyone know the REAL DEAL?

4/09/2006 06:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lots and lots of McMansions in Central Jersey being reduced and sitting for months on the market.
790k - 770k - 750k and so it goes.

4/09/2006 06:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inner city condo developments in England are falling apart as price fixing comes to the fore:
www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/article.html?in_article_id=408162&in_page_id=8

4/09/2006 06:13:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

see article below. check out chan saying

"But there is some good news. Official interest rates have nearly peaked, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to be cutting rates than raising them next year, Chan believes."

yeah cause the USA can do whatever they like and everyone will just keep buying our continuing depreciatory dollars. uh huh.

---

U.S. homebuyers feel pinch of rising mortgage rates
Sun Apr 9, 2006 1:27 PM ET172
By Andrea Hopkins

WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - Vicki Nious joined a nonprofit agency last year to help low-income Americans buy and fix up homes. Instead, with interest rates rising, she's seeing more clients struggling to pay their mortgage and hang onto their house.

"We've definitely seen an increase in delinquencies and even we have a few cases we may consider for foreclosure," said Nious, mortgage services manager for AHC Inc. in Arlington, Virginia. "Many families are having trouble because their adjustable rate mortgages are expiring and they need help."

Like a lot of Americans, many AHC clients got into the housing market in the last few years by taking out adjustable rate mortgages at extremely low "teaser" rates, sometimes half that of a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage.

The low rates offered an alluring way for poorer Americans to get into a booming housing market, and many leapt at the chance. About a quarter of outstanding home mortgages nationwide carry adjustable interest rates, and the nation's homeownership rate has climbed to a record 70 percent.

Last year, 43 percent of all mortgages taken out were adjustable or exotic in nature -- such as those that require only the interest of the loan be paid for the first two years.

But borrowing costs have been climbing for two years, in some cases to nearly double what they were in 2003 or 2004, just when the introductory low rates on adjustable mortgages are set to expire.

That means homebuyers who were once paying just over 3 percent interest are suddenly facing rates that are at 5 or 6 percent and still climbing. As interest rates rise, late payments, also known as delinquencies, are becoming more common. After 90 days, foreclosure can begin.

WORSE BEFORE BETTER

Economists are bracing for an onslaught of late payments and the inevitable worry among lenders and borrowers alike that failed loans will cause a consumer or housing collapse.

The mortgage delinquency rate rose to 4.70 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2005 from 4.44 percent in the third quarter, according to The Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry group that tracks loan repayments.

While at least part of the increase was due to Hurricane Katrina, the group said the rising share of adjustable and subprime loans was also driving up delinquencies.

Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Private Client Services, has done research to show that delinquency rates lag the increase in adjustable mortgage rates by about a year. That means delinquencies will continue to climb for as long as a year after mortgage rates have peaked.

"Given that ARM rates are going higher, I think it's pretty straightforward to make the forecast that over the next 12 months, those delinquencies are moving higher, not lower than where they are today. So if we think they're bad now, they're going to be higher," Chan said.

But there is some good news. Official interest rates have nearly peaked, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to be cutting rates than raising them next year, Chan believes.

What's more, the traditional link between market rates like mortgages and official interest rates has been broken, so higher official rates may not feed into the mortgage market. After all, official interest rates have nearly quadrupled in the last 2 years, while mortgage rates have not quite doubled.

"That's going to rescue a lot of people. If that link were to reemerge, then we have a problem," Chan said.

Still, the Center for Responsible Lending, a Washington-based consumer protection group, knows many homebuyers are only now beginning to realize the risk they took on when they signed up for an adjustable rate mortgage.

"I think that many people are very misled in terms of the initial monthly payment. We certainly hear from borrowers who didn't know until it adjusted that that's what was going to happen," said Debbie Goldstein, the center's executive vice-president.

At AHC, Nious is working with low- and moderate-income families to refinance costly mortgages in a desperate bid to avoid foreclosure. But with fixed rates now above 6 percent, it may be a losing battle.

"For many, they can't afford even a loan at 1 percent," Nious said. "But we do everything we can to assist them, we sit them down and do counseling to see if we can do anything, even modify a note to see if they can pick up the payments if they had a loss of job and they weren't able to pay."

"Foreclosure is a last resort for us."

4/09/2006 06:28:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Saw many open house signs today, three houses had their third open house since coming on the market a few weeks ago. No takers, apparently.

I will not set foot in an open house until prices become realistic. Leave the sign-in books empty, and give no foot traffic! Let the Realtor™ sit bored and alone from 1-4PM.

4/09/2006 06:29:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Off the wire at Bloomberg:

Global Markets May Be Ready for Reverse After Three-Year Rally

Timing stock markets may be the ultimate sucker's game. The real sucker, though, is the investor who thinks prices will rise forever. Anyone with a memory ought to prepare now for the day stocks stop climbing.
...
The easy-money policies of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan after the technology bubble burst in 2000 drew investors to stocks and bonds. Now, central banks are steadily tightening monetary policies.

``The monetary helium that inflated this bubble is seeping away,'' Belkin says. ``Markets have had a good run for three years and now most financial assets are extremely overextended and at an inflection point.''

4/09/2006 08:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAW THE MOST OPEN HOUSES EVER.

AND EMPTY NO CARS IN FRONT.
REALTORS STARVING!
BOOOOYAAAAAH!

BOB

4/09/2006 08:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BOYCOTT OPEN HOUSES.

NO INTEREST NO COMMISSIONS NO NOTHING!

STARVE REALTORS!

BOOOOOOYAAAAH!

BOB

4/09/2006 08:14:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

101 comments in this thread so far, a record?

I'm with you Bob!

4/09/2006 08:34:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Looks like a record. I can't remember ever going over 100 comments.

grim

4/09/2006 08:53:00 PM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

Was out driving around doing errands... Didn't notice as many open house signs as last weekend.
-----------------------------------

Could today being Palm Sunday have anything to do with that?

Next Sunday is Easter so... the open house scene should be quiet again.

4/09/2006 09:34:00 PM  
Blogger gravitymatters said...

Any thoughts about the idea of purchasing a condo in the edgewater area along the hudson?
-----------------------------------

Edgewater IMHO is Bergen County's version of the DOT.CONDO craze.

many investors are probably choking on their properties right about now & with all the cranes in the air...things will probably get ugly.

be afraid... be very afraid to buy something there now. if you wait 2 or 3 years, you may catch something for 50 to 60 cents on the $.

4/09/2006 09:46:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

i've seen very little properties new to the market the past week and i don't expect to see many until after next weekend's easter holiday. families are traveling and such so not many open houses i would imagine. i expect a 'surge' afterwards.

4/09/2006 10:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could today being Palm Sunday have anything to do with that?

Yes - We had most of our agents taking off today. No open houses for our office.

KL
( none for Easter either )

4/09/2006 11:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Went to one open house today, found the realtor sitting on the back porch. Practically had to wake him up.

My, the times are a-changing!

Hee hee hee...

4/09/2006 11:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


There's a thread going on at the "kannekt" BBS which tells of wildly successful open houses in Hoboken.
It smells a lot like Realtor® propaganda spam.


Well, one thread talked about the success of an FSBO, so its probably not realtor spam.

However, I was most amused to see one supposed FSBO who claimed to have held an open house and got 2 offers, but was unwilling to even disclose the building.

4/10/2006 12:01:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Richard,

I see very little slowing in the rate of inventory added. If anything, the rate is increasing. See the data below for the same time period in January, February, March, and April.

Activity on the GSMLS for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Middlesex, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren. (Note, includes Middlesex)

4/3 - 4/9
1705 New Listings
183 Listings Back On Market

3/2 - 3/9
1559 New Listings
184 Listings Back On Market

2/2 - 2/9
1401 New Listings
189 Back on Market

1/2 - 1/9
1226 New Listings
152 Back on Market

I'll see if I can graph something up.

grim

4/10/2006 05:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, one thread talked about the success of an FSBO, so its probably not realtor spam.

Of course that assumes that the FSBO claims are not those of a Realtor® in disguise.

4/10/2006 06:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saw huge amount of balloons signs and desperate realtors.
Dropped in on one just for curiousity sake. Realtor said I was first to stop in. About 4:00 or so. Also the realtor said the seller was not realistic with their price. WOW! I was surprised. He did not seem to really care what price it sold for....he just wanted to make a transaction.
The house was junk by the way. I wouldn't even consider it at 50% off.
Realtors should spend more of their time convincing sellers to lower the prices more as opposed to trying to ripoff a buyer.

4/10/2006 07:55:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Same situation in one of the open houses I stopped in last week.

Realtor told me their life story, how they were getting divorced. How the house was at least $100,000 overpriced. How we were only the second couple to stop by.

grim

4/10/2006 07:59:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

2006 will be called the year of denial as most sellers refuse to budge on their laughable asking prices. this will be followed by 2007 which will be called the year of acceptance as they start adjusting to the new realities of the market.

4/10/2006 08:26:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

grim thanks for the inventory update. i just don't see where the demand will sop up even a good portion of this inventory. i don't know about you but the surge in the spring sales season seemed to of already happened. i saw a number of houses list early in feb and sold then a follow through in march. april seems to be quiet in terms of transactions. maybe after easter there will be an uptick but i'm skeptical.

4/10/2006 08:27:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

This weekend seemed very thin to me, I'm not sure where all the open houses were, but I didn't see many. Palm Sunday? Perhaps.

Next weekend? The weather looks great, but we've got Easter and Passover. Both of which will certainly put a damper on sales activity and open houses.

I thought the superbowl was the kick-off of the spring season?

grim

4/10/2006 08:48:00 AM  
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