Drowning In Debt
Interesting report from the Center for American Progress:
Drowning in Debt
America’s Middle Class Falls Deeper in Debt as Income Growth Slows and Costs Climb
"America’s middle class is drowning in debt. A typical middle income family earning around $45,000 a year saw its debt burden grow by 33.1 percent between 2000 and 2004, even after adjusting for inflation. Debt relative to income rose even more, to 33.9 percent, during this period for middle income families, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances. Personal bankruptcies among these households are rising steeply."
"The reasons for greater economic distress among middle class households are not hard to pinpoint. Slow income growth between 2001 and 2004, the last year for which complete data is available, has not kept pace with the rising cost of big ticket items such as housing and education loans, medical expenses and transportation. Family budgets have been squeezed."
"A common but misplaced assumption is that the growth in debt among middle-income families – those with incomes roughly between $25,000-to-$70,000 a year - is the result of over-consumption through increased credit card debt. Rather, growth in debt is primarily due to heavier borrowing for investments in homes or education, both of which saw dramatic price increases in recent years. The cost of a college education, for example, grew by 26.3 percent between 2001 and 2004, after adjusting for inflation."
Drowning in Debt
America’s Middle Class Falls Deeper in Debt as Income Growth Slows and Costs Climb
"America’s middle class is drowning in debt. A typical middle income family earning around $45,000 a year saw its debt burden grow by 33.1 percent between 2000 and 2004, even after adjusting for inflation. Debt relative to income rose even more, to 33.9 percent, during this period for middle income families, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances. Personal bankruptcies among these households are rising steeply."
"The reasons for greater economic distress among middle class households are not hard to pinpoint. Slow income growth between 2001 and 2004, the last year for which complete data is available, has not kept pace with the rising cost of big ticket items such as housing and education loans, medical expenses and transportation. Family budgets have been squeezed."
"A common but misplaced assumption is that the growth in debt among middle-income families – those with incomes roughly between $25,000-to-$70,000 a year - is the result of over-consumption through increased credit card debt. Rather, growth in debt is primarily due to heavier borrowing for investments in homes or education, both of which saw dramatic price increases in recent years. The cost of a college education, for example, grew by 26.3 percent between 2001 and 2004, after adjusting for inflation."
71 Comments:
These statistics confirm what I have thought for years: things are just different for the Gen X and Y generations than their boomer parents. I have repeatedly heard boomers dismiss escalating education and housing costs with remarks like: "New Jersey has always been expensive," or, "We stretched to get into a house, you'll do the same and everything will be okay." If that's true, then why are their single kids still living at home into their 30s, and why is it that 30 years ago a single wage earner making the median salary support a family and own a home in a reasonable neighborhood, whereas now it takes two married professionals making a six-figure income to afford the same house?
The sad conclusion is that the Boomers' wealth is having a negative effect on their children's welfare. Their entitlement benefits and housing wealth have passed on a legacy of debt to the young generation.
I've been reading this blog for a while, but I think I'm going to start participating more.
And oh yeah...Booyah!
Be A fool Buy an Overpriced House.
Welcome to monthly slave payments.
Just what "IF" the prices of houses drop 25%-50% and you have to sell in 5 years?
BOYCOTT HOUSES!!!
Boooooooooyaaaaaaaaaa
Bob
Do NOT listen to anyone with a vested interest tell you to "JUST" buy a house.
The facts are house prices DO NOT compute. Prices are a RIPOFF!
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Just say NO MAAS to monthly slave payments.
Lean times are a coming bloomers and realtors. You may have to save money outside the Housing ATM machine to fund that retirement now.
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/03/news/economy/realestateguide_2_fortune/index.htm
10Y up to 5.18% this morning.
I think the critical issue is when the Gen X and Y generations will decide "enough is enough" and make a break for cheaper metro areas. The NY metro area will always attract a certain amount of young professionals, especially in law and business, among others, simply because it is a Mecca for that kidn of talent. But when will it get so bad that those who don't have to be here will leave? There are a lot of grumblers, and true, there is a negative outflow of population, but when will the exodus begin? Or has it? I think retiring boomers will be in a for shock in 10 or so years, assuming prices don't recede or stagnate, when they find a lack of youngsters willing to finance their retirement by forking over $800,000 for a 3BR that seriously needs a paint job.
Gluts & Gluts & Gluts of Insultingly priced inventory piling up Daily.
GSML Listing
5/12/2006 28,820
5/10/2006 28,660
5/08/2006 28,471
Everyday relentless overpriced supply piling up
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
You’re contradicting yourself.
Whether it’s McMansions, starter homes, condos or whatever you define as middle-class housing, the prices would still be high. Even if towns allowed for more building (which we do not need) the prices would still be high no matter what type of housing. If existing homes that fit your definition are priced high, new ones of this “type” would be too.
Hell, the Phoenix area has tons of room to expand and housing boomed there. Did prices stay level? No they boomed beyond affordability as well.
Yes, there IS a lot of inventory. Yes, it’s still not affordable. But prices WILL come down. It just won’t happen tomorrow. This is a market, but it moves MUCH slower.
You and NJGal talk about 30 years ago. Well maybe you should review what happened to the housing market about 20 years ago. But don’t stop there; look at the market about 15 years ago. And while doing this pay attention to what interest rates during those times.
I think the Harper's "The New Road to Serfdom" article absolutely nailed the central issue of the housing boom: Why in the blazes are middle class citizens racing to go into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt? The two main justifications, capital appreciation and fear of not being able to afford in the future are strong reasons. But I think the Boomers are way overrating home equity. Expensive houses take money out of your pocket every month, provide no positive cash flow, and obligate your future earnings to pay for interest. So many Boomers say their house was the best investment they ever made, but what good is an investment like that if you have to sell and move to North Dakota (no offense) to capitalize on? And what if, heaven forbid, you actually want to stay in the house you labored to pay off all those years? Most Boomers can't as their house is their nest egg.
15 years ago during the last bubble bust home prices fell 25% and condos fell 50% in the face of lower interest rates 9% down to 6%.
another RE myth busted.
Boomers are toast if they think housing is going to bail them out in the next 5-10 years. I expect massive price deflation in next 3 years.
Housing is expensive. Between the taxes the interest payments the upkeep, insurance....and now as it is dropping in price it doesn't look like such a good deal anymore.
There is a NET outflow of people leaving the state of NJ.
Another RE myth busted.
Review this again BUBBLEHEADS!
http://www.youdovoodoo.com/80sbubble.htm
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Booooooyaaaaaa
Bob
Review this again Bubbleheads
http://www.harpers.org/MostRecentCover.html
See the serf carrying the load. That's you fool if you pay these ripoff prices.
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Booooooyaaaaaaa
Bob
Yes, but I've heard more than a few Boomers lament they can't stay in NJ due to property taxes, income tax, etc.
Yeah and right now their retirement Housing slush fund is dropping in value.
Don't be a serf/fool and bail out these bloomers.
BOTCOTT HOUSES!
Booooyaaaa
Bob
"READ ECON 101 first."
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr......
"READ ECON 101 first."
We're way past ECON 101. The prices are being driven by madness. People think that a quick buck can be made by flipping. We'll need to read up on PSY 101 and SOC 101.
Shailesh Gala,
There is something called as AFFORDABILITY INDEX, which takes into account many factors such as Income, Interest Rates, Employment etc.. This index for NJ has been going down steadily in at least last 10 years.
I’m not disagreeing that affordability of housing has been going down. Well, for the last 5 years, not 10 (see below). But since you said it yourself above, tell me how you think more available housing is going to correct high property taxes, lost high paying jobs (due to corporate taxes), income, etc.?
I start to question, why do they even teach DEMAND & SUPPLY in econ 101?? Isn't it so simple to understand that if population increases (remember you have folks moving in NJ and kids growing up in NJ), you need more houses. That is called DEVELOPMENT
READ ECON 101 first.
You’re quite condescending when someone disagrees with you.
This will always be a densely populated area and housing will always be higher in this area, period. Does that justify prices in this area for the past 4-5 years, no.
Population growth for Bergen County from 2000 – 2004 has been 2%, for all of NJ 3.4%. The US national average was 4.3%. New housing in this area has kept up with growth.
The market is not a two-sided coin, Supply and Demand. There are many other factors involved, i.e. interest rates. But if you believe it all boils down to Supply and Demand, explain then how prices have increased in Arizona and inland-California what with all the land and new housing available? (Please don’t answer affordability again, see above.)
You’re not the first young person in this state to be priced out of the market. Did you look at the history of the market in the mid-80s to late 90s? The same thing happened then.
It takes time grasshopper.
That goes the same for you baby-boom bashers. They did not create this market either. Take the emotion out of the equation.
Anon 10:45
15 years ago during the last bubble bust home prices fell 25% and condos fell 50% in the face of lower interest rates 9% down to 6%.
That's my point exactly.
That goes the same for you baby-boom bashers. They did not create this market either. Take the emotion out of the equation.
I take major issue with this. It was precisely the Boomers' overleveraging that created this problem. Always working harder for bigger and bigger houses, going into more and more debt to do so. The boomers were the generation that taught us to perpetually "trade up" to better houses.
It was precisely the Boomers' overleveraging that created this problem. Always working harder for bigger and bigger houses, going into more and more debt to do so. The boomers were the generation that taught us to perpetually "trade up" to better houses.
I don't believe it's just the boomers. People in their 30 - 40's have also moved up to bigger homes. And I don't feel its "bad" to move up. There are people of ALL ages who do not research the market and have a “must have” personality with housing. It’s this “person” that will have issues with retirement no matter if it comes in 5 years or 50 years.
So I agree that keeping up with the Jones and McMansions is not a fiscally responsible thing. But I believe it was easy available money that caused this, not a certain generation of people.
Besides, I can easily generalize the Gen-X & Yers by saying they have a “want it now, MTV short-attention span mentality”, but I know that’s not completely true.
I’m kidding!!! Now go have a juice box and relax. Kidding again!
I'm actually only four-years-old, and part of the New Silent Generation. True to my generation, I am unusually tech savvy for my age.
While you make a good point about "trading up" and overleveraging not being solely a Boomer phenomenon, they nevertheless are the generation that practiced this in a widespread manner. Your Depression Era ancestors did not leverage their houses like the Boomers did (well, maybe they did in the 1920s, but believe me, they learned their lesson)
An interesting point about generations I heard awhile ago, that adds to our discussion here: People of a generation are often "defined" by the major economic trends of their generation. Many of the depression-era generation have never forgotten what happened to them while younger, so thus their reluctance to take on any debt during their lives and their distrust of the stock market. The baby boomers on the other hand never experienced this, but instead experienced the inflation of the 1970s and thus some of their behavior might be attributed to that.
I cannot access the harper article. Can somebody put it on the web? Thanks.
Exactly! The Boomers and subsequent generations have been immune from disastrous economic events, such as the Depression. This has led to the "I'll quit my day job to flip houses because real estate is the only guaranteed, sure fire get rich investment" mentality of today. If you've never lived to see a market crash, why would you ever think a housing downturn was anything to worry about?
As a homeowner a 50 year mortage is silly but an an investor, it's really not so bad.
As an investor, presumably you will have tenants occupying the space and so you basically want to use them to leverage your debt. If your monthly payments are smaller, it is easier to do this. And you figure prices have to rise gradually over a period of far less than 50 years. (although probably not in the immediate future given the so called bubble we're in).
Personally, I think a 50 year mortgage is a stupid idea for banks to administer, more so than for the investor to take.
Hey Richard go ahead and buy.
Prices are going down.
You be a serf and sign up for monthly debt slavery.
BOYCOTT RIPOFF HOUSE PRICES!
Boooooooyaaaaaaa
Bob
anon 1:52
I couldn't agree with you more. The consensus seems to be that "since prices shot up 100%, why can't it come down 40%"
as if the market is that predictable and logical.
Bob, what's a serf?
You are FULL OF IT RICHARD.
The people that bought back in 1988-1989 at the last bubbleheads peak took 10 years in most cases to BREAKEVEN. so between year 1 and 10 if you had to sell you LOST!
Just say NO MAAS to RE pumpers.
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Booooooyaaaaaa
Bob
here's a stupid question - how do you create tinyurl's?
serfs are small blue creatures that live in the woods
Okay then 50% drop!!!
Either way dey deny deny prices are going down.
Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Send them starving realtors & sellers a Message NO MAAS slavery!
boooooyaaaaaa
Bob
Note: "The Center for American Progress" is a partisan political organization, and not an objective source of information.
More info here:
Short link:
http://tinyurl.com/g4gvn
Long link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_American_Progress
transmissionfluid,
Just quibbling on the details - $450K does get you something better than a "small, ugly, starter home" in NNJ. Let us not get carried away here.
No disagreement otherwise.
CNS
Bob, what's a serf
serfs are small blue creatures that live in the woods
I was trying to see if Bob was going to admit it.. ;)
UnRealtor said...
"Note: "The Center for American Progress" is a partisan political organization, and not an objective source of information."
But do you argue with their data, or interpretation?
Or is it tainted goods just because of the affilition. Remember, it is well nye impossible to find anything that is not partisan in DC. I find both sides of the spectrum make good points time to time.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Booya:
"No más." has only one "a".
Ask Roberto Durán.
;)
here's what 375k will get you..it's in montclair too.
isn't this "affordable"?
http://newjersey.foxtons.com/search?md5=0db23b4354a783b0d4f33c48ad867cf2&search_form=map&search_type=SS&inst_ref=112015&submit_type=search
"Kevin Maas" has two.
Must be a Yankee fan.
LET'S GO METS!
Let's go, Mets go!
Why the heck would you look for "affordable" in Montclair anyway?
Here's a house for $405K in Randolph that's a heck of a nice starter IMHO:
http://tinyurl.com/oal3w
That's like bitching about the lack of affordable housing in Beverly Hills. Ya don't jsut arrive in LA and move to the west side; ya gotta slum it in Hollywood first.
Prices will recede, there is no way the market will continue to sustain the current prices. We I think now can say with a fair bit of certainty that prices are not going up anymore. Therefore they are either stagnant or declining. The truth is NJ is a payment economy, ie. everything comes down to whats my payment. With rising intrest rates the payments grow higher thus causing the amount of cash spent on houses to go down. This will slow the market even more, right now we are at a standstill because buyers want lower prices because it is what they can afford and sellers want higher prices because their neighbor got $x six months ago. Now if an economic event occurs that will force a few sales than the ball will roll prices will fall, otherwise we will see stagnation in the RE markets until the wages catch up with the housing costs.
???
"NJ is a payment economy..."
Why do you think this is any different from any other state in the union?
Re the whole Gen X and Y thing, I would say right now, my generation is a bit of a catch-22. While the cost of living is higher, and moving would be cheaper in the long run, you need to remember that 1) it costs money to move and 2) you need to find a job wherever you move to. The problem is for a lot of people sponge off of Wall Street one way or another, and those easy jobs don't exist elsewhere. In addition, wherever someone is, they have to be able to pay the bills where they are. If they're living out of their parent's house as is, how are they going to cobble together the money to move elsewhere?
Because people in NJ are comfortable with the idea of borrowing insane amounts of money as long as they have the income to make the payments. People elsewhere are much more hesitant, much more fearful of debt and over extending themselves. People in NJ see a house for 1m dollars the thought is not that a million dollars but its $7000 a month. People elsewhere look at it as spending a million dollars on a home.
If you really look at our economy here we buy more on payments here than almost anyplace else. We are a huge credit society, people live beyond their means and have huge debt.
"If you really look at our economy here we buy more on payments here than almost anyplace else."
Would love to see data on that.
Michelle -
my point is people seem to think that 450k would get you nothing but a crappy old house in some crummy neighborhood.
that's obviously NOT the case which is why I posted something from Montclair.
sorry for the confusion, I'm not bitching about the price. I was trying to point out that 375-400k will still get you something decent.
Oops!
Sorry, my bad! That friendly fire can sure come unexpectededly! ;-)
Richard,
We'll meet for drinks sometime in the Summer of '08. Whoever comes closest with their predictions buys.
I stand by my guns with my prediction of 30% off peak prices when we hit bottom.
grim
Bottom line, I think even with a price drop of 10 to 20, housing in Northern NJ will remain unaffordable to most people. Those making the median household income of 45 - 50k will still be unable to afford anything 300k+, unless they trek out to the Lake HopatcoMuscaNetcong area. A price drop of 30% or more would be needed to really open things up to the true middle class. This is unlikely to happen, at least not until many years of stagnation and decline occur.
As to the "it costs money to live anywhere" argument, many are living in their parents' houses in NJ driving nice cars and leading otherwise materially successful lives, with the exception of a house. "Cost of living" is a myth: salaries in expensive cities never pay enough to live like you would in Dallas, etc.
grim:
where's that weekend thread?
hey grim, have you been keeping track of your blog traffic as well ;)
78 comments and counting on this topic alone. looks like a bubble to me.
Metroplexual wrote:
UnRealtor said: "Note: 'The Center for American Progress' is a partisan political organization, and not an objective source of information."
But do you argue with their data, or interpretation?
Didn't look too closely at their data, or their commentary, as the source is 'polluted' from objectivity. Are they presenting half the data? I don't know.
I don't mind a partisan source of information, but such should always be labeled.
Not bashing Grim, or this "CAP" group either, just pointing out that it's a highly partisan source.
In the link a posted above earlier, there's a quote from the Atlanta Journal Constitution:
"Former Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta has launched a liberal policy institute, the Center for American Progress, to drive the message for Democrats."
Again, the data may be correct, I don't know, I'm just pointing out that "CAP" has a very specific agenda.
"Why the heck would you look for 'affordable' in Montclair anyway?"
The taxes in montclair are simply OBSCENE. I would live in Ridgewood first, or another nice town with similar architecture, before giving away $20,000 in property taxes every year.
..."$450K does get you something better than a "small, ugly, starter home" in NNJ." I agree! In the zips where are children go to school 08742,08730,08736,08735 -you're lucky to get heat in these over priced shacks.
here's what 375k will get you..it's in montclair too. isn't this "affordable"?
http://newjersey.foxtons.com/search?md5=0db23b4354a783b0d4f33c48ad867cf2&search_form=map&search_type=SS&inst_ref=112015&submit_type=search
Actually, a newer 2BR condo for $375K, and $6,235 in property taxes isn't bad for Montclair.
30% by mid-2008 seems very reasonable considering all factors, but I am expecting 40% by end of 2008.
Babababababababababa BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Boooooyaaaa
Bob!
who cares what you think bob...you're just a serf ;)
RentinginNJ
I hear more and more stories about people here in NJ considering a move to NC than anywhere else. what's going on down there? How's the job market?
I have no affiliation with CAP.
Nor do I particularly trust anyone who feels it necessary to cover their documents in an American flag (that isn't the Federal Government or the Military).
Like most other topics, it was selected as a jumping-off point for discussion.
This is the most active weekday thread this blog has ever seen.
Finally, a real conversation without truly bashing anyone and talking about INXS, I mean Depeche Mode.
Thanks to all of you for the restraint.
"I hear more and more stories about people here in NJ considering a move to NC than anywhere else. what's going on down there? How's the job market?"
I travle to the RTP area quite a bit and the anecdotal evidence seems to be somewhat true - there are a lot of Northeasterners moving down there. As for jobs, it's certianly growing, but you won't find the diversity of opportunities that one would find in the NJ/NYC area. It seems to be good for science/enginerring, some finanace and insurance, not sure what else.
If you can find a good job in NC, the cost of living and quality of life standards (in my opinion) are much, much better. The weather is much better, as you get at least an extra month or two of outdoor time a year. The golf is fantastic, Raleigh airport get you most places in the US non stop, and the girls are pretty good looking. But if your looking for NYC excitment, it doesn't hold a candle (I know, few places do).
Michelle in response to finding numbers. One does not need numbers to support this when the driving force in the economy in NJ for the past 5 years has been Residential Construction and Consumer Spending which is the conclusion drawn in the 2006 NJ Econ Forecast and basically every publication comming out of trenton.
Also do you think it is a coincidence that Paramus NJ as a market for retail has the highest sales per sq. ft of anyplace in the country. Also NJ ranks #7 in consumer debt per person. I would say both statistics and ancedotal evidence supports my claim. I do not lie, speak with a midwesterner look at their demands for material goods. Look at how much they earn and what they spend and you will see their cashflow is different from ours.
Anonymous said...
Finally, a real conversation without truly bashing anyone and talking about INXS, I mean Depeche Mode.
Thanks to all of you for the restraint.
4:20 PM
You know me too well.
"many here look at towns they want to live in, see that prices are out of their reach and decide there's a bubble and will sit tight until prices come to their level. sorry, it doesn't typically work that way."
Are you saying there's no bubble, and these prices are normal?
Sorry, I just can't believe that NJ is any different from anywhere else in the country in terms of having a "payment" mentality.
It's no different anywhere else, unless you're talking about farmers, and hey, we have those in NJ too.
There are plenty of people in plenty of states for whom coming "down to whats my payment" is a way of life. No reason to knock NJ for it specifically. Frankly, CA has it beat hands down.
From what I have read, there are the two prices, the buyers price and the sellers. The buyers is based on the monthly payment, the sellers are in the real world (at least until they buy again).
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RickJ
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