Taking Longer To Sell In New Jersey
From the Record/Herald:
It's taking longer to sell a house
by Prashant Gopal
"Last spring, Michael Segal put his Teaneck home on the market for $600,000 -- an asking price selected with the help of his Realtor."
"Buyers showed interest, but Segal said he decided it wasn't time to sell. This spring, the four-bedroom colonial is up for sale again. The asking price: $529,000 ($19,000 above his current's agent's recommendation)."
"What changed? North Jersey's real estate boom, it appears, has gone flat."
"Springtime is here, and "open house" and "for sale" signs are everywhere. But unlike the past few springs, real estate agents are having to work harder to sell homes and convince sellers to be more realistic about asking prices."
""Sellers and the buyers are at a standoff," said James Collins, an agent with Coldwell Banker in the Alpine/Closter office. "The sellers think their home is worth more than what fair market value is. The purchasers are thinking there's a big real estate bubble that's going to burst. So they're ... wanting to wait and see.""
"Jeffrey Otteau, who owns the Otteau Appraisal Group in East Brunswick, recently released data showing that the average number of listings in New Jersey from January through March jumped by 65 percent, compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, sales in that period were down 12 percent."
"In Bergen County, there was a five-month inventory of homes as of March 31, meaning it would take that long to sell all the homes on the market at the current pace, Otteau's report said. By comparison, there was a three-month inventory at the same time last year. Inventory is also building up in Morris, Passaic, and Hudson counties."
"But some experts say it's unlikely the housing market will soon return to the boom levels of prior years, especially with slow job growth in North Jersey, and high energy prices cutting into buyers' budgets."
"The boom is "over, and we're into a cycle that's going to last three years with high levels of inventory and a slow pace of sales,'' said Otteau."
It's taking longer to sell a house
by Prashant Gopal
"Last spring, Michael Segal put his Teaneck home on the market for $600,000 -- an asking price selected with the help of his Realtor."
"Buyers showed interest, but Segal said he decided it wasn't time to sell. This spring, the four-bedroom colonial is up for sale again. The asking price: $529,000 ($19,000 above his current's agent's recommendation)."
"What changed? North Jersey's real estate boom, it appears, has gone flat."
"Springtime is here, and "open house" and "for sale" signs are everywhere. But unlike the past few springs, real estate agents are having to work harder to sell homes and convince sellers to be more realistic about asking prices."
""Sellers and the buyers are at a standoff," said James Collins, an agent with Coldwell Banker in the Alpine/Closter office. "The sellers think their home is worth more than what fair market value is. The purchasers are thinking there's a big real estate bubble that's going to burst. So they're ... wanting to wait and see.""
"Jeffrey Otteau, who owns the Otteau Appraisal Group in East Brunswick, recently released data showing that the average number of listings in New Jersey from January through March jumped by 65 percent, compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, sales in that period were down 12 percent."
"In Bergen County, there was a five-month inventory of homes as of March 31, meaning it would take that long to sell all the homes on the market at the current pace, Otteau's report said. By comparison, there was a three-month inventory at the same time last year. Inventory is also building up in Morris, Passaic, and Hudson counties."
"But some experts say it's unlikely the housing market will soon return to the boom levels of prior years, especially with slow job growth in North Jersey, and high energy prices cutting into buyers' budgets."
"The boom is "over, and we're into a cycle that's going to last three years with high levels of inventory and a slow pace of sales,'' said Otteau."
36 Comments:
GSML Listings
Everyday it is relentless Housing Inventories Piling Up
5/10/2006 28,660 houses for sale
5/9/2006 28,587 houses for sale
5/8/2006 28,471 houses for sale
4/12/2006 26,582 Houses for sale
3/06/2006 24,111 Houses for sale
Relentless.
And this does not include FSBO. WOW!
BOYCOTT HOUSES!!!
Booooyaaaaaaaaa!
Bob
Sellers do not give a damn where and how the buyer gets the money. they get their money and the buyer signs up for debt slavery.
Seller laughing all the way into retirment by sucking in a gullible fool listening to all the hype.
Grim - did you post April data already? Did I miss it?
April data has not been posted yet. Also waiting on the 2006 Q1 Stats from the NJ Association of Realtors.
grim
This is the most important info in that article, at least about bergen county...
More recent data from the New Jersey Multiple Listing Service show the trend is accelerating. On April 30, there were 6,268 home listings for Bergen County homes, 52 percent more than on April 30 of last year. But 26 percent fewer Bergen County homes sold last month than in April of 2005, according to the data.
Otteau's tune has changed dramatically in the past few months.
The optimism is quickly fading.
I have a feeling the 3 year figure was based on the trends seen during the last bubble. The steepest declines were seen in the 3 years that followed the crash, 1989, 1990, and 1991.
grim
Just my opinion... this is just more evidence that continues to dispel that myth of wall street bonus money.
I think I might of seen a similar question posted here but I was wondering if anyone that has been following specific properties noticed reductions coming in lower than 2005 peaks on the similar properties.
bobby
50 Year mortgages hit the market:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/10/news/economy/economy_mortgage/index.htm?cnn=yes
50 year mortgages?
Reminiscent of the top of the Japanese RE bubble..
Lenders were pushing 100 year mortgages.
Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt - New York Times
Economists and real estate experts see other parallels as well. In the 1980's, the expectation of rising real estate prices made many Japanese homebuyers feel comfortable about taking on huge debt. And they did so by using exotic loans that required little money upfront and that promised low monthly payments, at least for a short time.
A similar pattern is found today in the United States, where the methods include interest-only mortgages, which allow homebuyers to repay no principal for a few years. Japan had its own versions of these loans, including the so-called three-generation loan, a 90- or even 100-year mortgage that permitted buyers to spread payments out over their lifetimes and those of their children and grandchildren.
Grim....."Also waiting on the 2006 Q1 Stats from the NJ Association of Realtors"... How honest do you think that will be? Are they even capable of telling the truth? Looking forward to that report!
BOYCOTT GAS!
Insultingly Overpriced.
Boooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
BOYCOTT RIPOFF HOUSE PRICES!
Starving realtors + desperate sellers = Plunging prices
Booooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
(the Real Deal)
It's always different "here".
grim
Bob, why don't you just register a name with the blog so that we can know who is you and who is fake?
That's funny...like we care who's really saying "booyaa".
that's so 90's anyway.
Bob
(the Real Deal)
LOL!!
newsflash to "Bob" - we don't care
The latest promotional postcard I got from the local W agent changed content and format from previous mailings.
They used to just say how many high-priced homes in my neighborhood they'd sold. And of course the front would be a picture of a prize local house.
Now it's all about how they can enpower me to achieve my goal of home ownership! *Barf!*
oh, and no prize home picture this time - the post card front is a SALAD RECIPE! Hilarious
PbW
BOYCOTT BLOATED HOUSES!!!!
Keep the BOYCOTT GOING INTO SUMMER THEN FALL THEN WATCH THE
PAPAPAPAPAPA PANIC!!!!!!!
LEAN TIMES COMING YOUR WAY BUBBLEHEADS.
BOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
Here is a very interesting debate that was on the radio yesterday (NPR's "To the Point") between the economist who wrote the recent Harper's "Housing Serfs" piece and David Lereah of the NAR. Lereah sounds like a cheerleader, what an a**hole.
The following link will stream the Real Audio file from NPR:
http://tinyurl.com/zyd4m
For at least a year, some economists have predicted the bursting of what they call the housing "bubble." The real estate industry has insisted that won't happen, and the superheated housing market did protect the economy when the stock market faltered, but have good things finally come to an end? Fortune magazine says the boom is over, and foreclosure rates are beginning to rise. In Harper's, an economist observes, "Never before have so many Americans gone so deeply into debt so willingly," and that the "investments" they believe will lead to wealth and freedom may be a kind of slavery. If prices drop, what's the fate of homeowners with interest-only loans? What are the consequences for the economy as a whole? We hear from economists, realtors and investment experts.
"...the post card front is a SALAD RECIPE! Hilarious" I got an email like that from a realtor. She has a voice email on how to make some chicken recipe along with her listing! What is going on - is there going to be a glut of short order cooks next?
chicken and salad recipes?? the only things cooking now are their gooses
BOYCOTT GAS TOO!!!!
Keep the BOYCOTT GOING INTO SUMMER THEN FALL THEN WATCH THE
PAPAPAPAPAPA PANIC!!!!!!!
LEAN TIMES COMING YOUR WAY BUBBLEHEADS.
BOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
"Ridiculous to compare a house boycott with a gas boycott. No one HAS to purchase an over priced house. Gas is a necessity…unless you commute via public transportation that is."
That's just some tool impersonating Bob.
$3 per gallon is high, but it's still not that bad with inflation adjusted...
Just like the real estate market, everything is due for an adjustment... can't keep expecting to pay $2 at the pump year after year...
Grim,
Do you think it will take 3 years before housing becomes affordable again?
it all depends on your definition of affortable...
some people believe current price is affortable..
it's all relative...
Most ARMs are close to 6%, if not more, at this stage.
You need I/O's now.
I hope it doesn't take that long (7-8 years) for prices to drop. If housing prices just dropped 10% this year, that would be encouraging. Compared to the last RE bubble, it seemed prices fell a bit sooner. There are still sellers who are listing their homes 100ks overpriced and thinking that the 10 year old jacuzzi tub in the master bath is the sale clincher!
Don't overlook the panic effect. Just because sellers seem to be reluctant now, in a newly chilled market, wait until the market becomes colder than the Arctic.
What foolish speculators remain, will take their loss and head for the hills, and the inventory will climb.
Add in the suicide loans people have been using to "afford" these over-priced homes, with rising interest rates, and you have even more inventory pouring on the market.
In 12 months I think this market will look very different that today.
Cash will be king, so be patient, save your money, and get ready to make a move in 2007.
unrealtor, thanks for the feedback.
bh
My guess is within 2 years. I believe it's the re-adjusted ARMS that will start the major slide. And if energy costs continue to go up or even stay at current levels along with any slight downturn in the economy the drop over the next two years could very well be one of the worst on record.
WELL I GUESS THIS ARTICLE ANSWERS MY QUESTION FROM YESTERDAY:
I received the below email a person who lives in New Milford):
Is it possible that the original prices on the list of houses were primarily high speculation prices?
I don't disagree that the drop in prices are and reflecting higher mortgage interest rates.
The statistics on employment recently sent the stock market up.
Comparative price drops on homes in the 350's and lower 400's from what I see locally in the Bergen Record
have not taken the substantial price reduction.
Cash is not king just yet!
Immunity in Bergen county. I doubt it.
Prices have escalated there as much as anywhere else, maybe even more so. I really would like to see original price, the current prices, and what a property finally closes at for communities in Bergen County.
Can you get access to comp's like that?
I doubt there is any difference between Bergen County and the rest on NJ.
As a seller, the market has become fustrating. I have a beautiful townhouse in clifton that my husband and I are selling and some buyers have come to see it 3 to 4 times and not deciding yet. The amount of townhomes for sale right now is staggering. I'm also out there as a buyer and understand both sides of the coin. It is crazy to see some of the prices people are asking for small houses but boycotting only hurts everyone. Some of the lowball offers we have gotten just make it impossible to pay the realtor the 4% commission and have enough to buy a small house. It may be that we need to take it off the market and wait another year before moving.
Here is my listing, it has been on the market for 50 days even though it has the lowest taxes, fee's, and better area than some of the townhomes in clifton. Buyers don't realize that sellers have to buy property too. Boycotting hurts everyone.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/159343461.html
I guess we will just have to wait until the market settles before re-listing.
I am in Warren County close to rt 78 trying to relocate to CO for job reasons. We have been trying to sell our 3 yr 3000 sq ft custom home on almost an acre our taxes are under 8000.00 List for around 480 we have dropped significantly already still no bites. I grew up in Bergen County. You can keep those small homes on postage stamps they are overpriced and the taxes are higher than my new home for some 50 60 or more yrs in need of everything updated home. In search of homebuyers anyone got any?
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RickJ
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