Otteau Report - First Quarter 2006
The Otteau Report For Q1 '06 is online and available at the Otteau Group website. There is quite a bit of data contained in these reports, they should keep you all busy for hours.
Bergen
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 48%
Unsold Inventory: 5342 (Up 84%)
Essex
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 55%
Unsold Inventory: 2124 (Up 38%)
Hudson
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 41%
Unsold Inventory: 2429
Morris
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 47%
Unsold Inventory: 3115 (Up 66%)
Passaic
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 46%
Unsold Inventory: 1801 (Up 65%)
Somerset
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 45%
Unsold Inventory: 2204 (Up 92%)
Sussex
Projected Absorption: 9 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 44%
Unsold Inventory: 1175 (Down 3%)
Union
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 50%
Unsold Inventory: 2131 (Up 60%)
Warren
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 42%
Unsold Inventory: 951 (Up 40%)
Bergen
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 48%
Unsold Inventory: 5342 (Up 84%)
Essex
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 55%
Unsold Inventory: 2124 (Up 38%)
Hudson
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 41%
Unsold Inventory: 2429
Morris
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 47%
Unsold Inventory: 3115 (Up 66%)
Passaic
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 46%
Unsold Inventory: 1801 (Up 65%)
Somerset
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 45%
Unsold Inventory: 2204 (Up 92%)
Sussex
Projected Absorption: 9 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 44%
Unsold Inventory: 1175 (Down 3%)
Union
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 50%
Unsold Inventory: 2131 (Up 60%)
Warren
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 42%
Unsold Inventory: 951 (Up 40%)
19 Comments:
I don't believe there is any magic number.
grim
Fixed the broken links.
grim
Looks like a trend in suply demand ratios going down.
Thanks again for another great data.
Grim,
Excellent data as usual... i believe that this is the point that everyone should really follow, if even considering to buy or looking at the state of the real estate market -- and that's inventory... just this morning, i saw jonathan miller, who also provides excellent date, on cnbc... and i couldn't believe that actually the host on cnbc, becky?, acknowledged that supply is up massively... so, maybe, and i just say maybe, the masses are starting to wake-up.
Unsold inventories Up Up Up
Doesn't include the massive glut of FSBO signs all over!
Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Free markets do work on the upside and downside.
Just say "NO" to Ripoff prices.
Booooooooyaaaaaaaaaa
Bob
Just a question: I recently saw a home in Monmouth County sit for +/- 5 months with multiple reductions, then it went under contract and sold. It was listed and sold by Weichert and the day after it sold, some representative from GMAC placed its own sign on the front yard with a SOLD sign. Is that an agent purchase...seems very unethical to me....
I can hear it now:
"But the house next door sold for $780,000"
"But it is a stones throw from NYC"
"Close to NYC transportation"
"Value mostly in land"
hahahahahah!!!1
"It was listed and sold by Weichert and the day after it sold, some representative from GMAC placed its own sign on the front yard with a SOLD sign. Is that an agent purchase...seems very unethical to me...."
Suzanne researched that one.
BTW..the address on that monmouth county home is 800 Monmouth Road in the town of Ocean/West Allenhurst
bairen said...
Historically, how many months of inventory in NJ before the median prices start dropping?
8:09 AM
What is the cliche?
"A Watched Pot Never Boils"
;)
Anonymous said...
Grim,
... and i couldn't believe that actually the host on cnbc, becky?, acknowledged that supply is up massively... so, maybe, and i just say maybe, the masses are starting to wake-up.
9:32 AM
I am guessing that the oversupply isn't so much the masses waking up as much as it is "oversupply". More supply at a certain price level than demand. There is no panic though. The fluidity of the market has stopped. People want to move, but they cannot. In order to force movement, something in equation has to adjust. Interest rates have to go down, supply must go down, or prices have to go down.
chicago
I expose myself as a geek, but observing this market is cool.
There are many people that dismiss economics as useless theoretical crap. Many complain that they do not see any real world applicability. Well the problem is that markets are so dynamic and full of noise, that it can be very difficult to decipher the linkages. However, we are privileged to watch this all unfold in front of us in slow motion. We are going to be able to dissect everything in baby steps as it happens. This opportunity is exciting!
OK - I prefaced this comment with admitting that I am a geek.
chicago
CF,
I agree, it is once in a lifetime fascinating, like watching a train wreck. Which is probably not going to be fun when the imbalances adjust.
Skep-tic,
I agree with you in that the market is coming down and possibly pretty fast... but the sales numbers that will be released in the coming months will not show that... the disconnect from released data and reality will continue.
This site is awesome; I'm learning so much from everyone and telling everyone I know to wait and boycott open houses!
I've been following a condo in The Charlton in Fort Lee that's been on the market since last July. It was relisted under a different MLS in January, which I agree with another poster is unethical, for the same price, they just jazzed up the description a bit, like the "stainless steel" appliances justify the $660k price. Oh, and the listing agent has it listed at more than a thousand square feet than it really is! I called the agent and pointed out they discrepancy, but they didn't fix the listing.
Anyway, I know the listing will expire next month, so how can I find out what the new MLS will be?
Also, is there any way to find out how much the owners actually owe on the mortgage? The sellers bought this place for $440,000 just two years ago, put it on the market a year after they bought it for $660,000. They are either delusional or completely leveraged. The place was assessed at $400k! They haven't lowered the price after a year, so I'm wondering how motivated they could be?
The sellers bought this place for $440,000 just two years ago, put it on the market a year after they bought it for $660,000. They are either delusional or completely leveraged. The place was assessed at $400k! They haven't lowered the price after a year, so I'm wondering how motivated they could be?
First of all, how do you know how much they bought it for? Secondly, where did you get the assessed value?
I always wonder where you guys get this information..is this info available on some website?
thanks a lot!
I know the address, so I just looked it up on taxrecords.com. I found out the assessed value on zillow.com, again plugging in the address. Check out Grim's "How-To" section on how to get information on taxrecords.com; very useful.
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
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