Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Otteau Report - First Quarter 2006

The Otteau Report For Q1 '06 is online and available at the Otteau Group website. There is quite a bit of data contained in these reports, they should keep you all busy for hours.

Bergen
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 48%
Unsold Inventory: 5342 (Up 84%)

Essex
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 55%
Unsold Inventory: 2124 (Up 38%)

Hudson
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 41%
Unsold Inventory: 2429

Morris
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 47%
Unsold Inventory: 3115 (Up 66%)

Passaic
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 46%
Unsold Inventory: 1801 (Up 65%)

Somerset
Projected Absorption: 7 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 45%
Unsold Inventory: 2204 (Up 92%)

Sussex
Projected Absorption: 9 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 44%
Unsold Inventory: 1175 (Down 3%)

Union
Projected Absorption: 5 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 50%
Unsold Inventory: 2131 (Up 60%)

Warren
Projected Absorption: 8 Months
Supply & Demand Ratio: 42%
Unsold Inventory: 951 (Up 40%)

32 Comments:

Blogger bairen said...

Historically, how many months of inventory in NJ before the median prices start dropping? I saw on Ben Jones' Housing Bubble blog for CA the figure was 11 months of inventory. I would expect to see yoy drops soon for the counties wtih 7 months + inventory.

5/02/2006 07:09:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I don't believe there is any magic number.

grim

5/02/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Fixed the broken links.

grim

5/02/2006 07:47:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Looks like a trend in suply demand ratios going down.

5/02/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Anonymous LoveData said...

Thanks again for another great data.

5/02/2006 08:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,

Excellent data as usual... i believe that this is the point that everyone should really follow, if even considering to buy or looking at the state of the real estate market -- and that's inventory... just this morning, i saw jonathan miller, who also provides excellent date, on cnbc... and i couldn't believe that actually the host on cnbc, becky?, acknowledged that supply is up massively... so, maybe, and i just say maybe, the masses are starting to wake-up.

5/02/2006 08:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unsold inventories Up Up Up

Doesn't include the massive glut of FSBO signs all over!

Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!

Free markets do work on the upside and downside.

Just say "NO" to Ripoff prices.

Booooooooyaaaaaaaaaa

Bob

5/02/2006 08:56:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

On first brush, the months of inventory (absorption rate) statistics appear to be indicative of a “normal” market. Based on this alone, you can see where the RE industry and other RE cheerleaders are proclaiming victory; a “return to normal” or “soft landing”. This is like a jet airplane climbing to 36,000 feet, losing both engines and 2 minutes later claiming, “everything is fine, we just lost a little altitude.”

The real story here is the trend shown in the data. Sales are slowing and inventory is exploding. With inventory piling-up, it won’t be long before the “return to normal” argument goes out the window.

5/02/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

does not look like wall st. is too happy with hovnanian,,,
mills is next.

5/02/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just a question: I recently saw a home in Monmouth County sit for +/- 5 months with multiple reductions, then it went under contract and sold. It was listed and sold by Weichert and the day after it sold, some representative from GMAC placed its own sign on the front yard with a SOLD sign. Is that an agent purchase...seems very unethical to me....

5/02/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i'm getting price reductions on properties in the top towns daily. that's right, in the top towns. granted many are overpriced to begin with, but 1 year ago these would've sold for asking. prices are coming down as most people aren't willing to spend $700k on a ranch.

5/02/2006 09:30:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

real estate industry unethical? say it ain't so!

5/02/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can hear it now:

"But the house next door sold for $780,000"

"But it is a stones throw from NYC"

"Close to NYC transportation"

"Value mostly in land"

hahahahahah!!!1

5/02/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger d50fish said...

Grim,
Could you include also the Middlesex county data please

5/02/2006 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

You can see the graphs we did on this for Hoboken and Jersey City
Here On BubbleTrack

5/02/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"It was listed and sold by Weichert and the day after it sold, some representative from GMAC placed its own sign on the front yard with a SOLD sign. Is that an agent purchase...seems very unethical to me...."


Suzanne researched that one.

5/02/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BTW..the address on that monmouth county home is 800 Monmouth Road in the town of Ocean/West Allenhurst

5/02/2006 11:08:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

bairen said...
Historically, how many months of inventory in NJ before the median prices start dropping?
8:09 AM


What is the cliche?

"A Watched Pot Never Boils"

;)

5/02/2006 11:19:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
Grim,
... and i couldn't believe that actually the host on cnbc, becky?, acknowledged that supply is up massively... so, maybe, and i just say maybe, the masses are starting to wake-up.
9:32 AM

I am guessing that the oversupply isn't so much the masses waking up as much as it is "oversupply". More supply at a certain price level than demand. There is no panic though. The fluidity of the market has stopped. People want to move, but they cannot. In order to force movement, something in equation has to adjust. Interest rates have to go down, supply must go down, or prices have to go down.

chicago

5/02/2006 11:25:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

I expose myself as a geek, but observing this market is cool.

There are many people that dismiss economics as useless theoretical crap. Many complain that they do not see any real world applicability. Well the problem is that markets are so dynamic and full of noise, that it can be very difficult to decipher the linkages. However, we are privileged to watch this all unfold in front of us in slow motion. We are going to be able to dissect everything in baby steps as it happens. This opportunity is exciting!

OK - I prefaced this comment with admitting that I am a geek.

chicago

5/02/2006 11:31:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

CF,

I agree, it is once in a lifetime fascinating, like watching a train wreck. Which is probably not going to be fun when the imbalances adjust.

5/02/2006 11:38:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

Realtors and their cheerleaders (CNBC, et al) will be changing their tune very soon. once Q2 data comes out that shows sales dropping off a cliff in the most bubbly areas, Realtors and their buddies and going to lay the pressure on hard for sellers to cut prices.

5/02/2006 11:39:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i can tell you from first hand experience westfield is humming right along with record asking prices pretty much selling in 30 days. now it's westfield and it's got cachet/wall streeters so it'll hold out a bit longer but eventually it'll head down with the rest of the ship. question of course is when.

5/02/2006 12:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skep-tic,

I agree with you in that the market is coming down and possibly pretty fast... but the sales numbers that will be released in the coming months will not show that... the disconnect from released data and reality will continue.

5/02/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

housing stocks getting hammered
today.

look out below

5/02/2006 12:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This site is awesome; I'm learning so much from everyone and telling everyone I know to wait and boycott open houses!

I've been following a condo in The Charlton in Fort Lee that's been on the market since last July. It was relisted under a different MLS in January, which I agree with another poster is unethical, for the same price, they just jazzed up the description a bit, like the "stainless steel" appliances justify the $660k price. Oh, and the listing agent has it listed at more than a thousand square feet than it really is! I called the agent and pointed out they discrepancy, but they didn't fix the listing.

Anyway, I know the listing will expire next month, so how can I find out what the new MLS will be?

Also, is there any way to find out how much the owners actually owe on the mortgage? The sellers bought this place for $440,000 just two years ago, put it on the market a year after they bought it for $660,000. They are either delusional or completely leveraged. The place was assessed at $400k! They haven't lowered the price after a year, so I'm wondering how motivated they could be?

5/02/2006 12:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The sellers bought this place for $440,000 just two years ago, put it on the market a year after they bought it for $660,000. They are either delusional or completely leveraged. The place was assessed at $400k! They haven't lowered the price after a year, so I'm wondering how motivated they could be?
First of all, how do you know how much they bought it for? Secondly, where did you get the assessed value?
I always wonder where you guys get this information..is this info available on some website?
thanks a lot!

5/02/2006 03:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know the address, so I just looked it up on taxrecords.com. I found out the assessed value on zillow.com, again plugging in the address. Check out Grim's "How-To" section on how to get information on taxrecords.com; very useful.

5/02/2006 03:55:00 PM  
Blogger goldcoast said...

I have been a once a week visitor for about three months now. I am currently a once a day visitor and expect to be a multi-day visitor soon. I love this blog because I feel that the participants back up their responses with actual facts (with links)..be it media or statistics. Also, Grim, Chicagofinance, Metroplexual, Bubblex, the Sketic (s), & many Anons all have earned much respect with their thoughtful postings.

One thing that I would like to see more of is information and thoughts on Hudson County – especially Weehawken, Hoboken, and Jersey City. I live in Weehawken-and feel that the bubble won’t burst here?? - but I could be wrong.

Thanks Grim and everyone who adds quality information!!!

5/03/2006 07:13:00 PM  
Blogger goldcoast said...

I have been a once a week visitor for about three months now. I am currently a once a day visitor and expect to be a multi-day visitor soon. I love this blog because I feel that the participants back up their responses with actual facts (with links)..be it media or statistics. Also, Grim, Chicagofinance, Metroplexual, Bubblex, the Sketic (s), & many Anons all have earned much respect with their thoughtful postings.

One thing that I would like to see more of is information and thoughts on Hudson County – especially Weehawken, Hoboken, and Jersey City. I live in Weehawken-and feel that the bubble won’t burst here?? - but I could be wrong.

Thanks Grim and everyone who adds quality information!!!

5/03/2006 07:13:00 PM  
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