Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Jersey Housing Sales Dive

From the Star Ledger:

Housing sales dive 16.3% in Jersey

June is a pivotal month in the housing market -- the grand finale of the busy spring house-hunting season.

More than any other time of the year, it's when homebuyers call their agents, book home tours and turn up at open houses, setting the high-water mark for homes sales in any given year.

But, apparently, not this year.

The National Association of Realtors said yesterday home sales in New Jersey tumbled 16.3 percent during the second quarter as more homebuyers, discouraged by higher home prices and interest rates, dropped out of the market. During the quarter, 157,900 homes were sold, down from 188,600 a year earlier.

Prices, which are released for metropolitan areas rather than on a state-by-state basis, have held up, although the increases have moderated substantially and in Central Jersey they actually fell, the NAR reported.

"There is still little evidence of collapsing housing markets, although we are early in the downturn of the housing cycle and the weakening is going to play out over the next year or two," added Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa.
...
"The weakening of the residential real estate market is occurring primarily in the coastal markets of the country, including New Jersey, because the increase in prices in the coastal markets have been greatest over the last seven years and thus the affordability squeeze is exaggerated here," said Jeffrey Otteau of East Brunswick-based Otteau Appraisal Group, who also authors a series of widely followed quarterly market reports on the New Jersey real estate market.
...
Otteau said that June is the "traditional end point of the all-important spring selling season," and typically sets the tone for home sales in any given year.

"Thus the residential market in New Jersey had much at stake as any hopes for a market comeback would fall heavily on June sales performance," he said.

In New Jersey, the number of homes that were contracted for sale in June ran 9 percent below May and 24 percent below June 2005, Otteau said, "continuing the pattern set earlier this year and dimming hope for a market comeback anytime soon."

110 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

ARMS .....SHWARM...


There are HUNDREDS of other places to "find" money, without putting Lassie to sleep (Which would cost $300 as well)

Cut out:
Starbucks. $100/mo
Gym membership $100/mo,.
Some new Clothes: $100/mo
Increase deductible(s): $100/mo
Abort Whole Foods: $100/mo
Buy generic grocery stuff: $100/mo.
Share a cell phone: $50/mo
Cancel cable: $50/mo
Lower the heat: $50/mo.
Cancel vacation: $300/mo


List is endless. That's just $1000/mo. off the top of my head.

People will be find.
Put the crash helmets away.

8/16/2006 06:25:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Do you honestly think there can be a huge pullback in consumer spending without a massive impact on our economy?

So what happens on the macro-level when these spending cutbacks take place?

Starbucks profit falls, they lay off workers or close stores because of the reduced demand.

Gym profits fall, they lay off workers, cut back hours, or worse, shut the doors.

Retailer profits fall, layoffs take place. Manufacturer profits fall, layoffs take place.

Whole foods profits fall, they lay off to compensate. Perhaps a handful of small organic grocers go under as well.

Verizon and Cablevision (Comcast) profits fall...

I think you see the pattern here.

But wait, there's more!

You now have a second group of people who are going to cut back their spending because they lost their jobs. This gets fed back into the economy, further exacerbating the downturn. Don't ever discount the negative multiplier effect in an economy with an incredibly high marginal propensity to consume..

grim

8/16/2006 06:41:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

...and please don't post the same comment to multiple threads unless it's absolutely necessary to.

grim

8/16/2006 06:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice summary, Grim. This kind of widespread economic pain is also going to happen if home prices fall by 30%. Consumer spending by the middle class has been fueled by growth in home equity, not rising incomes. When that falters, whether due to mortgage adjustments or to a decline in available equity, we are ALL going to feel pain. The gloating on this site over the impending fall seems to ignore the broad economic effects this will have. Unemployment will rise, public assistance costs of all sorts will rise, retail and service stocks will dive, our kids will have an even hard time "launching." (I graduated in 1981--I know what starting off in a recession feels like!) Those who do not own RE will protect more of their assets, but we will likely all be feeling the pinch, and many, many will feel real pain.

8/16/2006 06:56:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Discussing the paradox of thrift is always relevant in these types of discussions. I don't really want to get into a Keynes discussion here, only to use the paradox as a tool to help realize that spending cutbacks and increases in savings can have a potential negative effect on the economy.

The Paradox of Thrift

The paradox of thrift is a paradox of economics propounded by John Maynard Keynes. The paradox states that if everyone saves more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall and will in turn lower total savings in the population. One can argue that if everyone saves, then there is a decrease in consumption which leads to a fall in aggregate demand and thus lead to a fall in economic growth.

8/16/2006 06:59:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

Starbucks. $100/mo
Gym membership $100/mo,.
Some new Clothes: $100/mo
Increase deductible(s): $100/mo
Abort Whole Foods: $100/mo
Buy generic grocery stuff: $100/mo.
Share a cell phone: $50/mo
Cancel cable: $50/mo
Lower the heat: $50/mo.
Cancel vacation: $300/mo


Most people just pay for the above items on credit.

8/16/2006 07:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That NAR report had lots of interesting info.

In a comment on Ben Jones' blog yesterday I noted that if you add the NJ decline (and throw in the likely decline in NY and Pa.) to the five states that reported the largest decline, you have at least a 20 percent sales drop in states with 1/3 of the country's population.

The only large state which saw a significant increase in sales was Texas, up 11.3 percent. The nation's sales growth leader was Alaska, up a whopping 48+ percent.
Of course Alaska has about the same population as Monmouth County.

The other thing to note from that report is that what does not go up so much also comes down.

While prices in the Northeast (+6.3%), South (+4.1%) and West (+3.6%) were reported higher in the Midwest prices declined (-2).

This is going to be, to borrow from ZZTop, bad and nationwide.

Lindsey

8/16/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

What some 20-somethings are doing...

'In The Real World'

"...With low starting salaries, hefty student loans and high housing prices, many young adults aren't even considering living alone after graduation."
---
"Sharing expenses is the only way we can survive without making New York City money," he said.

8/16/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Adding...

BTW, the NAR put the national level of sales decline at 7 percent. Based on what we know about most of the largest markets, and anecdotal info from many others (Mass, and the Pacific NW come to mind) that number seems awfully low.

Lindsey

8/16/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Housing Starts and Permits came in under estimates..

U.S. Home Starts Fall to Lowest in Almost Two Years

Home construction in the U.S. dropped last month to the lowest level in almost two years after higher mortgage rates slowed sales and left builders with bloated inventories.

Housing starts fell 2.5 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 1.795 million, a Commerce Department report showed today. Building permits, a sign of future construction, declined 6.5 percent, the most since September 1999.

The decrease in residential construction, which accounts for about 6 percent of gross domestic product, bears out the Federal Reserve's forecast that housing will slow the economy. Homebuyer affordability at the lowest level since 1989 has reduced demand and prompted builders such as Pulte Homes Inc. to slash earnings forecasts.

``Negative builder sentiment and a large inventory of unsold homes suggest that construction firms will be reluctant to start new projects'' in coming months, said Mike Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York.

Economists expected starts to fall to an annual rate of 1.808 million from an originally reported 1.850 million pace in June, according to the median of 58 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 1.76 million to 1.89 million.

Building permits dropped to an annual rate of 1.747 million, the lowest level since August 2002 and less than the 1.84 million median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. Permits in June declined to a 1.869 million pace.

8/16/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Consumer prices rise 0.4 percent (in line with expectations) and core CPI rose 0.2 percent (below expectations). Rising energy costs were offset by lower clothing prices.

Sept. 20th is still a month away, but based on this data, it looks like the Fed could stand pat again.

8/16/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Got pull teeth out of these so called "experts" to admit that the real estate market is tanking.

8/16/2006 07:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a new reader and am very much appreciating the commentary here. My thought is that if housing prices drop here (I am in Rutherford), won't there be a wave of returnees from the Stroudsburg area to contend with?

I seriously considered moving to the foothills of the Poconos and commuting in to Midtown...

Who'd want to drive from, say, Easton PA with gas over three dollars when they could live cheaply in this charming but grotesquely overpriced town?

Perhaps I'm leaving property tax out of the mix? The condo glut? The huge "investment" inventory?

Otherwise, unless NYC becomes ugly again, we are likely to see continued demand. Same s**t, different demographic.

In other words, won't the continued desire to live close to La Manzana Grande tend to offset price drops?

Thanks for your thoughts...

8/16/2006 07:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ARMS .....SHWARM...


There are HUNDREDS of other places to "find" money, without putting Lassie to sleep (Which would cost $300 as well)

Hahaha

There is a cost when the consumer cuts back. So when the housing market BUSTS.....landcapers, plumbers, electricians, mtg brokers, realtors, builders, appraisors and bankers are impacted. it filters down into the economy. Then you cut back on other items then other FOOLS can't pay their bills.

8/16/2006 07:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ARMS .....SHWARM...


There are HUNDREDS of other places to "find" money, without putting Lassie to sleep (Which would cost $300 as well)

Hahaha

There is a cost when the consumer cuts back. So when the housing market BUSTS.....landcapers, plumbers, electricians, mtg brokers, realtors, builders, appraisors and bankers are impacted. it filters down into the economy. Then you cut back on other items then other FOOLS can't pay their bills.

Many FOOLS have a slim margin of error to stay afloat.

8/16/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I have another 'marathon' meeting today. Feel free to use this thread as an open discussion of any topic that pops up this afternoon.

jb

8/16/2006 07:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Otherwise, unless NYC becomes ugly again, we are likely to see continued demand. Same s**t, different demographic.

In other words, won't the continued desire to live close to La Manzana Grande tend to offset price drops?

Thanks for your thoughts...

This is a fact. Why in 1989 a friend bought a NYC co-op farily desirable area and the Co-op collapsed in price. As a matter of fact he did not breakeven until about 1998-1999 about 10 YEARS LATER. At one point he said he could even sell it at 50% discount.

NYV+C prices go down as they are right now. just to many unethical poeple out there who rely on RE for a living twisting and spinning away to keep the truth from fully being realized at this time. But the secret mis gretting out.

To bad pumpers.

Anyone notice the hostility level is rising. Back in 1993 the realtor harassment level was very very high. They would literally attack you if you looked at a house. When you are starving you get desperate. Desperation for a commish check is growing..

BOOOOOOWHOOOO!

8/16/2006 08:02:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Rather than cutting back the gym, and becoming like the rest of this obese country, find a cheaper gym.

My wife and I belong to the YMCA in Long Island City and pay $71/month.

Saving cash is fine, but not at the expense of health.

8/16/2006 08:06:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Anonymous said...

"This is going to be, to borrow from ZZTop, bad and nationwide.

Lindsey"

One of the all-time greats. Nice job Lindsey.

"I've got a girl that lives on the hill, she won't do it but her sister will...."

8/16/2006 08:09:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

Some new clothes: $100/mo? That won't even buy you a shirt these days. Key to cutting down the clothes bill is to shop at discount retailers like Loehmanns, TJ Maxx, Filenes Basement and of course the Outlets. You can probably knock your clothing budget down 30% while buying the same quality/quantity

8/16/2006 08:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rutherford? Charming?

Maybe compared to its neighbor, Kearny.

8/16/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

the key to today's economy including the bouyancy of housing is tied to one metric, credit. so goes the tightness/looseness of borrowing so goes everything else. all the statistics play out that overall people have low/no savings and are increasing debt loads. if you can't borrow as easily/cheaply as in the past you can't spend the same way.

watch the credit folks, that's what the Fed's tightening is all about and it has yet to make but a little dent in the economy. this is why they paused. in 6-9 months i expect us to be heading towards recession.

8/16/2006 08:37:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

My thought is that if housing prices drop here (I am in Rutherford), won't there be a wave of returnees from the Stroudsburg area to contend with?

The periphery of the NYC metro area will also get hit by falling prices. Unless they rented in Stroudsburg, they may have a tough time getting out. Who is going to buy the homes of the “wave of returnees”?

8/16/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

stroudsburg? who would possibly choose to live there? i encourage anyone interested in that area to take a visit on a weekday around 7pm to the walmart off route 80. you'll quickly change any thoughts of moving. a friend of mine came up with a great line. said it seems everyone in that walmart is a candidate for gastric bypass surgery or awaiting a sex change. LOL!

8/16/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Rutherford? Charming?
Maybe compared to its neighbor, Kearny"

I agree with the previous anon, Rutherford is charming. It is a great town with a ton of old victorian's. (I am not in any manner justifying their home prices) There are a lot of great restuarants and a nice downtown. The location is great, 8 mi. to NYC, with a NJ Transit stop. By the way, its neighbor is not Kearny. To the south you have Lyndhurst and North Arlington. Saying that Kearny is its neighbor is like saying that Lyndhurst's neighbor is East Newark. Not accurate at all.

BC Bob

8/16/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks to anon who stuck up for Rutherford!

One more thing: there's NO STARBUCKS here!! But there's a butcher, a baker, The Village Gourmet, and a nice Episcopal church, if that happens to float your boat. And parades and block parties...

As far as transit, even better than the NJ train is the 190 bus. Without traffic, it's under 20 min to the Port Authority.

Still, prices are loony tunes. There is a "cape" offered at 385K right now, that by any sane standard is worth 85K.

I do notice condo prices becoming steadily more manageable.

Thanks again!

8/16/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{Cut out:
Starbucks. $100/mo
Gym membership $100/mo,.
Some new Clothes: $100/mo
Increase deductible(s): $100/mo
Abort Whole Foods: $100/mo
Buy generic grocery stuff: $100/mo.
Share a cell phone: $50/mo
Cancel cable: $50/mo
Lower the heat: $50/mo.
Cancel vacation: $300/mo}}


Would anyone in the NYC metro area do this?? NOT A FUC*ING CHANCE IN HELL.

Not to mention all the 'designer clothes' everyone wastes money on. That is probably $2,000 - $5,000 for the average 20 something male outside of Manhattan.

You think people spend $100 a week on clothes.. Try $100 a day maybe on one shirt, or likely $500 or more a week.

Not to mention all the clubs, bottle service, parking in midtown..

YOU CANNOT economize in this region without feeling inferior.

What is the point of living in this city if you need to go car free and can only window shop??

The MTA, PATH & NJ Transit are good for rush hour only. Certainly not good for weekends or outside of rush hour when a car becomes a necessity anywhere in this area

8/16/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

7.1% INCREASE IN MEDIAN HOME PRICES in north jersey! Don't be fooled.

Source: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-8/115570277648590.xml&coll=1&thispage=2


Meanwhile, home prices in the Newark metropolitan region -- a six-county span that includes Essex, Union, Morris, Hunterdon and Sussex in New Jersey and Pike County, Pa. -- rose 7.1 percent in the second quarter of 2006 to $443,800.

8/16/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588

07/05 4,550
07/12 4,613
07/19 4,604
07/26 4,623

08/02 4,562
08/09 4,577 3,207
As of today 08/16 4,574 Last year: 3,187

I've seen a lot of withdrawals. They may be back in the Fall.

8/16/2006 09:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Economizing in this part of the country?? F***CKING laughable.

If you don't have a trust fund or work on Wall Street, it is prohibitive to even rent an apartment in Hempstead, Elizabeth NJ or Jersey City.

8/16/2006 09:37:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"Not to mention all the 'designer clothes' everyone wastes money on. That is probably $2,000 - $5,000 for the average 20 something male outside of Manhattan."

Seriously, can we drop this already? It's an overassumption at best, smacks of jealousy and is just plain annoying - you post it on every thread. It lends nothing to the discussion (except for allowing a few of us to laugh over $300 jeans every now and again:)

8/16/2006 09:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sorry--me again--when I mentioned Stroudsburg and Easton, I know many NYCers who moved there to get houses in the 100 to 150K range. Their plan was either to commute or relocate altogether.

Commuting is no longer attractive, given transportation costs. And what a lot of time it takes! Do they ever see their new homes in daylight?

Personally, I turn off 80 in East Stroudsburg, right off the Delaware River, to go to the McDonalds...and get back on 80.

rentinginnj has a good point--who's going to help out the "returnees" I was envisioning? If the tide goes out, they're going to be high and dry. Conversely, we may remain under water.

Thanks again--

8/16/2006 09:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RichInNorthNJ

Thanks!!!

This is starting to look like the electronic billboard at Times Square, which indicates our huge, mounting debt.

Thanks again for the great work.

BC Bob

8/16/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been getting alot of emails from bloggers asking me what to do if they don't have very much cash.

So, this is what I think you should do:

If you have less than $10,000 in cash. You should not be in the stock market or anything else but get yourself a high interest saving account of CD account. I just saw a %6.0 one yesterday. Save cash, reduce lifestyle, and make sure you are matching your
401(k) contributions, if your work provider doesn't have a 401 program, open yourself up a ROTH IRA today. Always helps reduce the tax burden.

If you have less than $10,000 your mindset should only be in cash savings and nothing else. Start today and make 10,000 your goal, once you get to that point, then some of you can email me some more.

And for those whom email me whom have over 1e6 in cash reserve, I would still consider diversify out of the dollar. How much varies on peoples comfort level. I have been going with Middle Eastern currency myself....Turkey has been doing good for me.

**This is just my opinion, do the research yourself to help draw your own conclusion, I am just giving ideas because I get many emails a day from people on these blogs**

SAS

8/16/2006 09:46:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

NJGal said...
"Not to mention all the 'designer clothes' everyone wastes money on.
Seriously, can we drop this already? It's an overassumption at best, smacks of jealousy and is just plain annoying - you post it on every thread. It lends nothing to the discussion (except for allowing a few of us to laugh over $300 jeans every now and again:)

8/16/2006 10:38:23 AM"

YEAH, NJGAL!

Besides, some of us work for companies that sell said jeans!

8/16/2006 10:03:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

7.1% INCREASE IN MEDIAN HOME PRICES in north jersey! Don't be fooled.

I’m not sure what your point is, but here’s a little history courtesy of Grim’s site, Home Prices Do Fall

New York Area Remains Costly
August 16, 1988
“…In Bergen County, N.J., the average list price of a single-family home was $409,865 at the end of July, compared with $372,107 last year.
Although prices remain high compared with those in other areas of the nation, there are more homes being offered on the market.”
Home Prices Increase 3.4%
February 15, 1989
“Prices of existing homes rose 3.4 percent last year, but despite the moderate increase, many first-time buyers are being priced out of the market in some areas, a national real estate group said today. Prices of existing homes rose 3.4 percent last year, but despite the moderate increase,...”
Working to Bolster Residential Sales
September 10, 1989
"The home-buying market needs new blood to remain healthy,'' she said. ''Sales have been flat across the tristate area."
Buyers Hang Back in Muddled Market
January 28, 1990
"A TWO-YEAR slump in property values has pushed down home prices in the New York region and mortgage interest rates also have fallen, but the reductions show little sign of attracting the huge numbers of buyers who were locked out of the region's giddy real estate market in the mid-80's."

It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.
Rich

8/16/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

I go to the Village Gourmet :)

8/16/2006 10:12:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Abort Whole Foods: $100/mo
Buy generic grocery stuff: $100/mo



Buying selectively at Whole Foods and remaining on a budget $2,400/year [by your tally].

Avoiding TYPE II Diabetes, ADHD in kids, food allegies, pre-teen puberty, heart disease.

PRICELESS

Don't be penny-wise/pound-foolish.

You will pay the grocer or your will pay the pharma companies.

Read the book Fast Food Nation.

Food in this country is essentially an edible version of tobacco.

8/16/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

Here is how I am preparing for a slowdown....

1. Have no credit card debt
2. Have an emergency fund of 3-6 months cash in a money market fund
3. Increase my bond allocation slightly to provide a cushion should equities take a sudden tumble.
4. Keep my equity portfolio in taxable account to tax-loss harvest; diversify out of the US dollar by increasing my intl equity allocation to 50%.
5. Live below our means, continue renting, and dissuading my wife it's wrong!
6. Pray I hold my job.

8/16/2006 10:32:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Amen, Chi. Great book.

Although, I do still allow myself a Big Mac once a quarter!

8/16/2006 10:50:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"Read the book Fast Food Nation."

Off topic, but what a great book. I wasn't a huge fast food eater before reading it, but I ate my share. Since then, I could probably count on my hands the number of times I have eaten fast food. Such a good read.

8/16/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dreamtheaterr:

1. I have a credit card, but only for credit score maintenance purposes. Comes in handy, too.
2. Conservative husband likes us keep a year of expenses in MM. I guess it won't kill us, but sometimes it's tempting to play with it...
3. Bonds? We did also, but probably not to the percentage recommended. I'm too much of a risk-taker.
4. Ditto
5. Ditto, except I'm the wife.
6. Ditto, because I enjoy my job.

Isn't it funny how more people have many things in common than they think, including preparing for recession?
----
Chicago..on the exercise thing, I find power housecleaning 3x weekly helps for free. But no stopping for an hour and the floor must be hand-scrubbed. Being a cheap person and a clean freak may have a healthy side effect.

---

OTS - skip to bottom if you're not into details. And you probably already know this if you're not from down here in "the country."

Be careful at Wawa/7-11/other places with cash machines that do not have cameras rolling. I was at a busy store (Ocean County), made a withdrawal, turned, and noticed a man, 20-ish, hat, jacket, big backpack with electrical cord. Many cargo pockets.

He was 8 feet behind me, leaning on a cooler chest, staring at me, and frantically typing numbers using the two-thumbed method into a small gadget similar to a crackberry 7290. It was aimed at the cash machine. I ambled over to the coffee pots and watched him do this to five other people, told the manager and walked out of the store to my car. A few minutes later he scooted out and met up with someone else with a huge backpack, walking away.
-----
Short version..called the bank, bank says they have a problem with this in NJ. Dudes have mag tape spliced into the machine, read your card number as you slide it, and they are frantically typing 4-digit PINS into a hand-held reader as they watch your arm motions, trying to get your PIN. They read the elbow movement.

Rep says they sent my voice tape to security, and that it's funny they don't get more of these reports...people are afraid to accuse other people.


Pat

8/16/2006 11:24:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

OT: Fast Food Nation.....I am more concerned about what you buy at the supermarket than restaurants per se. If you think about McMansions, well think about McFood. You take an organism and attempt to apply cost-efficiency into production and marketing into sales.

Ten years ago I was at a recruiting trip to Kraft, and it was eye opening. Imagine a person who is trained identically to an investment banker, except their mission is to maximize the amount of cheese you eat, and producing it in the most cost efficient way. Who cares if you end up with tons of carcinogens coursing through your veins, stressing out your bodily organs, and bloat your body.

Fight back with your intellect and self-determination.

8/16/2006 12:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

c'est ne le une bubble:

Talk about surreal, this guy nails it, re: Kubler-Ross for bubble-heads:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_08/009348.php

Money quote:

"The same psychology that keeps prices rising during a bubble also mercilessly drives them down when the bubble is over. After all, who wants to buy a house if it's not going to appreciate? We should expect bumpy weather ahead."

8/16/2006 12:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ps: last post--Kevin Drum on the Kubler-Ross scale--from Jamey.

8/16/2006 12:03:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"Imagine a person who is trained identically to an investment banker, except their mission is to maximize the amount of cheese you eat, and producing it in the most cost efficient way."

Oh no, not cheese too!

Actually, since I DO love cheese so much, I have tried to cut it out, and limit it to fresh mozz or artisanal on occasion. But it really is scary the amount of processing that goes into everything we eat...even some of the "healthy" options aren't as healthy as people think.

8/16/2006 12:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

READ THIS POST AGAIN BUBBLEHEADS. SOME OF US REMEMBER THESE DAYS AND BENEFITTED BIGTIME.
JUST READ IT. THOSE IN DENIAL WILL GET BURNED.
GOOD POST!

RichInNorthNJ said...
7.1% INCREASE IN MEDIAN HOME PRICES in north jersey! Don't be fooled.

I’m not sure what your point is, but here’s a little history courtesy of Grim’s site, Home Prices Do Fall

New York Area Remains Costly
August 16, 1988
“…In Bergen County, N.J., the average list price of a single-family home was $409,865 at the end of July, compared with $372,107 last year.
Although prices remain high compared with those in other areas of the nation, there are more homes being offered on the market.”
Home Prices Increase 3.4%
February 15, 1989
“Prices of existing homes rose 3.4 percent last year, but despite the moderate increase, many first-time buyers are being priced out of the market in some areas, a national real estate group said today. Prices of existing homes rose 3.4 percent last year, but despite the moderate increase,...”
Working to Bolster Residential Sales
September 10, 1989
"The home-buying market needs new blood to remain healthy,'' she said. ''Sales have been flat across the tristate area."
Buyers Hang Back in Muddled Market
January 28, 1990
"A TWO-YEAR slump in property values has pushed down home prices in the New York region and mortgage interest rates also have fallen, but the reductions show little sign of attracting the huge numbers of buyers who were locked out of the region's giddy real estate market in the mid-80's."

It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.
Rich

8/16/2006 11:04:44 AM

8/16/2006 12:24:00 PM  
Blogger anthonyb said...

Starbucks. $100/mo
Gym membership $100/mo,.
Abort Whole Foods: $100/mo
Buy generic grocery stuff: $100/mo.
Share a cell phone: $50/mo
Cancel cable: $50/mo
Cancel vacation: $300/mo


Not bothering with most of that crap in the first place: PRICELESS

8/16/2006 12:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The author of Fast Food Nation, Eric Schlosser, will be speaking at Ramapo College in Mahwah on September 8th for Opening Convocation. His book was chosen as the summer reading for incoming freshman.
If any of you are interested in attending, let me know.

Karen
karensternos@gmail.com

8/16/2006 12:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon @ 8/16/2006 10:31:27 AM

"YOU CANNOT economize in this region without feeling inferior. "

You obviously have issues beyond the purpose of this blog and probably should relocate to feel better about yourself.

8/16/2006 12:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

8:57 said, "Many FOOLS have a slim margin of error to stay afloat"

Do you think this has to do with a form of risk-taking behavior that in some environments would serve the species well?

What is the benefit to this behavior? There has to be some benefit to the human race, or so many humans would not be such sheep about their finances and the Joneses.

Maybe in pre-historic times, humans saw other Jonesoids piling up chestnuts for the winter?

8/16/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From Newsday:

Experts say LI housing is headed for modest annual price declines, probably within months

The downturn is coming.

In all likelihood, it won't be severe and it won't be devastating to most homeowners. But Long Island's housing market is heading for annual price declines - probably in the next few months, experts said.

For the first time since 1997, Nassau County saw a flat housing market last month, with prices remaining exactly where they had been one year ago - at a median of $490,000, according to the latest data from the Long Island Multiple Listing Service. Suffolk County's median price of $410,000 represented a 2.5 percent increase over a year ago.

Over the past year the data each month have painted a clear picture of a slowing market, one that is now tilted fully toward home buyers. The time it would take to sell the entire housing inventory has gone from seven months a year ago to 12 months in Suffolk County, as of last month, and from six months to nearly 11 months in Nassau, according to a Newsday analysis. The supply has not been that high since 1997.

Meanwhile, houses under contract appear to show where the market is heading: Nassau County saw a 4.3 percent decline year-over-year in the under-contract median price, to $478,300, while Suffolk's prices remained flat.

8/16/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

(cont)

So the question becomes: How much will they soften - and for how long?

The market could be in for three to five years of flattening or declining prices, said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association. If prices decline, "it will be a gradual adjustment," she said, anticipating annual decreases in the 3 percent to 5 percent range.

Experts said this market has not begun to mimic the downturn of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when prices plummeted. The difference? "There's no panic," said Linda Bonarelli, a broker-owner with Re/Max North Shore in Huntington. "And there's no reason to panic."

Indeed, interest rates and unemployment both remain relatively low. Housing market expectations are predicated on the notion that those indicators will stay low - and that the overall economy will expand or remain stable.

"There's no cushion left," said Martin Cantor, chief economist for Sustainable Long Island, a Garden City advocacy group. "We could see layoffs and less profits, and wages are lagging behind. That all accounts for less demand in housing."

8/16/2006 01:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The headline: "Experts say LI housing is headed for modest annual price declines, probably within months".

The "experts" cited to support "modest price declines" aren't particularly compelling: two realtors and two economists that appear to have some agenda on the line.

The table at the end of the article was interesting:

------------------------------

Percentage changes in the median prices of homes in Nassau, Suffolk and Queens. Figures show price changes in July over the previous July. For example, the 0.0% figure for Nassau in 2006 means prices there are unchanged from July 2005.

NASSAU
2000: 13.94%
2001: 8.74%
2002: 26.79%
2003: 12.68%
2004: 9.33%
2005: 12.05%
2006: 0.0%

SUFFOLK
2000: 13.89%
2001: 16.08%
2002: 25.23%
2003: 17.95%
2004: 9.47%
2005: 13.48%
2006: 2.50%

QUEENS
2000: 13.76%
2001: 2.79%
2002: 20.81%
2003: 23.60%
2004: 13.64%
2005: 17.33%
2006: 13.57%

SOURCES: MULITPLE LISTING SERVICE OF LONG ISLAND

8/16/2006 01:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two links at washington times re: DC realtor (april, 2006) and today (August 16, 2006) What a difference 4 months makes in the newspapers?


http://www.washtimes.com/business/20060413-105214-3474r.htm

http://washingtontimes.com/business/20060816-121021-7703r.htm

8/16/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

Man, lots of good stuff in this thread.

For those who don't read books (you know who you are) see Supersize Me...

Chifi nailed it with the choice between paying for decent food and visits to the doc/pharmacy...

The paradox of thrift, btw, seems to have played out in Japan over the last 15 years...

Learned a little something about Rutherford...

8/16/2006 02:18:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

Time to contribute again.

OK, Having been unable to figure out how the massive sales declines in many large (population wise) states led to a nationwide decline of just 7 percent. I revisited the NAR report.

I should have realized it's the same old economics reporting scam.

The report is giving "seasonally adjusted annualized numbers." Now how they make the "seasonal adjustments" I have no idea. I'm guessing there's some wiggle room.

It's also worth noting that they state right on their spreadsheet that the state numbers don't add up to the national number. The numbers are more than 5 percent apart.

It's not data, it's propaganda.

I would love to see the actual figures.

8/16/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

================
"There's no panic," said Linda Bonarelli, a broker-owner with Re/Max North Shore in Huntington. "And there's no reason to panic."
================

Holy shmoley - she used the "P" word.

It actually scares me to see a realtor says something so goofy. This comment makes me believe that conditions over there are so much worse than we have been envisioning.

Run, do not walk, for the exits.

Cross off 2006 - beware the false bottom.

chicago

8/16/2006 02:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Human nature has not changed over the "Centuries.

I see some really deep thinking on this board today.

Now if the last of the "FOOLS" (Bagholders) would do the same thing then just maybe this deep housing correction would have a shortened lifespan.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/16/2006 02:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RAISE YOUR HAND IF YOU BOUGHT IN LAST 12 MONTHS.

JUST WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW YOU ARE A BAGHOLDER!

BABABABA

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/16/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lindsey, I've had that feeling about the numbers for a long time, and reverted to the old gut in April. It's been serving me well. I've even stopped my own charting exercises.
===============

RE: "Panic"

I hope that doesn't make Bob feel unneeded. Bob, you are not being replaced by some perfume squirter. I like your spelling of papapapaannnnic better.

Pat


Holy Houseburning, Bobman, beat me to the punch..saw it in edit mode.

8/16/2006 02:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can feel it.
The desperation of spec/flippers getting squeezed each month with cashflow problems.
The desperation of a starving realtor looking to make a commish check this month.

IT'S NOT GOING TO GET BETTER!

THE EXITS ARE SHUT AND YOU CAN;T GET OUT.

PAPAPAPAPA

PANIC

Bob

8/16/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chicago,

Amen to that!!!!!! Plan your strategy in 2006, certainly not time to execute it. This will be like a herd of elephants trying to escape through a small exit at the same time. Don't walk, don't run, sprint!!!!!!!

BC Bob

8/16/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NO REASON TO PANIC?

WRONG.

BETTER ACT FAST BEFORE

POOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFF IT EVAPORATES BEFORE YOUR EYES.

PAPAPAPA

PANIC!

Bob

8/16/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So if I am converting
i can go with a

30 year fixed
30 year fixed (10yr interest only)
40 year fixed.

and I'm out of the woods??

comments please

8/16/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DON'T WORRY CUZ MR. DAVID SAID THE HOUSING MARKET IS GOING BACK TO NORMAL.

EVER GO TO A PARTY AND IT'S WILD. YOU THINK THE BIGGEST PARTIERS ARE NOT HUNG OVER THE NEXT DAY?

PLEEEEZZZZEEEEEEE

HIS NOSE KEEPS GETTING LONGER WITH EACH COMMENT.

WHAT FRIGGEN MANIPULATION!
iT IS TOTALLY DISGUSTING THAT ETHICS IS A PRIORITY AT LEAST THEY SAY SO. NOT!

PROTECT YOUR OWN ASSETS FROM THESE SHEISTERS. NOONE WILL DO IT FOR YOU. THEY WILL HELP THEMSELVES TO EMPTY YOUR POCKETS.

THINK!

Bob

8/16/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

PROTECT YOUR ASSETS?

OH I FROGET TO MENTION THAT MANY OF THESE FOOLS HAVE NO ASSETS BUT LIABILITIES.

IF YOU ARE A POTENTIAL BUYER AND HAVE REAL ASSETS YA KNOW LIKE 20% DOWN TO BUY A HOUSE YOU OWN THIS FRIGGEN INSANE MARKET.


BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/16/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Anon at 3:11, that second link to the WP doesn't work...post it again using tinyurl...I am dying to see what's happened to that guy!

8/16/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bleed'em dry!

8/16/2006 03:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you have real assets do not look inquire or bid. why?
here's why.

“Jennie and David Garcia are testing the housing market again. This time the Yucaipa couple are asking significantly less for their five-bedroom Yucaipa home. Their house didn’t sell after a four-month effort ending in July. The Garcias don’t want to lock in some of that appreciation on their Yucaipa house in the past two years. ‘We are afraid the market is going to go lower,’ Jennie Garcia said.”

“In March, they listed their home with a real-estate agent for $509,000. ‘The first week we had four or five lookers. After that there was nothing. It was pretty bad,’ she said.”

“Last week they decided to make another stab at trying to sell the house, this time on their own. The asking price is now $468,000. Two people showed up at an open house over the weekend. ‘Better than nothing,’ she said.”

“‘We are not near the bottom,’ said economist Christopher Thornberg, a senior economist at UCLA. ‘Anybody who bought a home in the last year and was hoping for appreciation to bail them out is in for a rude awakening,’ he said.”

Give them NO HOPE!
Buyer/seller positions have reversed and it ain't fun. Get USED to it cuz blood has just started to flow. Go for the throat. It's all business.

Sorry it ain't a ONE way street.

8/16/2006 03:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You buy now or in the past 12 months you are a BAGHOLDER!

Expect losses if you want to sell in next 8-10 years.

It took one person i knew 10 years to BREAKEVEN ON A NYC CO-OP. 1989-1999.

10 YEARS!

Today's housing market is more Insane than 15 years ago.

BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/16/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

at one point the co-op was down 50% in value and he probably couldn't sell it then anyway.

nobody wanted it!

psychology & affordability plays huge role in markets. Both these things are really BAD in this bloated housing bubble market.

Papapapa

Panic

Bob

8/16/2006 03:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

to whomever was mentioning that cape in rutherford for $385K being worth $85K...I saw it and it is tiny. however, I personally know the broker on that house (assuming we are talking about the same one) and it has sold for near asking (no joke)....just goes to show you.

8/16/2006 05:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Karen,

I would like to goto that things in Ramapo.

What is the link?

SAS

8/16/2006 06:09:00 PM  
Blogger Math, like gravity, is law. said...

Percentage changes in the median prices of homes in Nassau, Suffolk and Queens. Figures show price changes in July over the previous July. For example, the 0.0% figure for Nassau in 2006 means prices there are unchanged from July 2005.

NASSAU
2000: 13.94%
2001: 8.74%
2002: 26.79%
2003: 12.68%
2004: 9.33%
2005: 12.05%
2006: 0.0%

SUFFOLK
2000: 13.89%
2001: 16.08%
2002: 25.23%
2003: 17.95%
2004: 9.47%
2005: 13.48%
2006: 2.50%

QUEENS
2000: 13.76%
2001: 2.79%
2002: 20.81%
2003: 23.60%
2004: 13.64%
2005: 17.33%
2006: 13.57%

SOURCES: MULITPLE LISTING SERVICE OF LONG ISLAND

8/16/2006 02:55:43 PM

These #'s are screaming at me. Leverage facilitated this, the ride down will be brutal! The next 5 years will be the worst 5 in the history of the housing market.

8/16/2006 06:37:00 PM  
Blogger Math, like gravity, is law. said...

Credit to Anon 2:55pm for the original post.

8/16/2006 06:42:00 PM  
Blogger Math, like gravity, is law. said...

The 97 to 99 appreciation #'s were above the rate of inflation as well. This bubble runs deep, 98 prices here we come. Fear will set in and people will not buy, period.

8/16/2006 06:44:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Math, that was me (no time to log in earlier).

Have a look at this desperate seller,

MLS 2306990
119 Cypress St
Millburn NJ
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1065857898


Aug 6 - $675,000

Aug 16 - $635,000


That's a $45,000 drop after only 10 days on the market!

This seller must have been spooked by the Ghost Town since no Greater Fools signed up for debt slavery.

8/16/2006 07:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fast Food Nation did such a great job of indicated how TASTY Fast Food is....that I eat more than ever....I have run a marathon, and hit the gym 6 days a week. (Swim, Pilates, Yoga, Weights, Running, Spin) I LOVE FAST FOOD b/c of that book.

8/16/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

> YOU CANNOT economize in this region without feeling inferior.

Bullshit. From age 21 to 30, I earned $30k->$50k->$90k->$200k+. I never bot a new car. Never spent much on clothes. Lived in a very small apt. etc.

I banked over $500k by 30.

Then, (and only then), I bot my 1BR apt for $85k with cash. Dumped in $15k to renovate. My monthy cost for a fully renovated apt = $500/mo.

Plan ahead, and you will have options. If you pay more than $30 for jeans, or $40 for a watch, you WUZ robbed!!

Oh, and I also work a lot less now. B/c those spending habits don't change.

Call me cheap.
Or you can call me Buffett.
He thinks like this too.

8/16/2006 07:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't care about sales' drops. I want to see price drops!!

8/16/2006 07:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Price drops are happening.

8/16/2006 07:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No price drops in hoboken cept in unsavory locations. im fed up and ready to leave this overpriced town.

8/16/2006 08:10:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"From age 21 to 30, I earned $30k->$50k->$90k->$200k+. "


Just curious, what was your major in college? Are you a Wall Streeter?

What legal actiities can one participate in to "bank over $500K" by 30?

8/16/2006 08:13:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

"From age 21 to 30, I earned $30k->$50k->$90k->$200k+. "


Just curious, what was your major in college? Are you a Wall Streeter?

What legal actiities can one participate in to "bank over $500K" by 30?


Don't necessarily need to be a wall streeter. Technology consulting/project management can lead you near those numbers. That is, ofcourse, based on your experience..

-Richie

8/16/2006 08:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I also managed to put away almost 500k by 30. I did it by living at home until I was 25 (my parents wanted me to stay longer). When I moved out, it was into a small apartment at $410 per month. I managed to save the difference and bought a home in 2000 with a huge downpayment. I never made more that $100k in my twenties.

Made the mistake of buying an expensive watch. Never again. Expensive cars and watches are expensive to maintain. However when I get the urge to waste money on something frivolous, I just have to look at my wrist to serve as a deterrent.

8/16/2006 08:53:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Richie, a project manager having "over $500K" saved in the bank by 30?

And Anon wrote:

"I also managed to put away almost 500k by 30. I did it by living at home until I was 25"

Well that's one approach, but not everyone has that luxury. You're lucky to have such a great head start, good luck, and don't piss it away!

8/16/2006 09:18:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

Grim,

The so-called "paradox" of thrift, along with the reste of Keynesian pseudo-economics, is a bunch of nonsense that lovers of big govt. use to justify all sorts of state disruptions into the market (including central banking) that ultimately produce more harm than good, both economically, and socially.

Saving, and the accumulation of capital, is what permits increasing productivity, innovation, and a wide assortment of goods and services.

IMHO, it is absolutely stupid to think that squandering money you haven't earned on the "$300 jeans"
is good for economic activity, while saving $300, (say, for future health care needs when you get old) is bad.

Saving is nothing more than future consumption. To elevate present consumption as more important than future consumption gets the economic growth equation backwards.

The problems we face are not that people are NOW saving, but that they spent too damn much in the first place! Reduced spending now is payment for lavish spending yesterday.

Neither is more important than the other, they are opposite sides of the same coin.

Could a farm operate if all production was devoted to present consumption? What would the people do once their crop is done, with nothing left over to start another crop?

They either starve, move onto more plentiful lands, or hope other neighboring communities have produced a food surplus for them to share (or steal).

What happens for the person who spends $300 on jeans, BMW's, and expensive homes, but isn't prepared for an involuntary lay off from work (say due to injury), because they don't have savings?

He or she becomes a "victim", for which a host of govt. services are available. After all, we certainly don't want to see someone go without medical care, especially if they are likely to be productive if they get the assistance they need.

But, why is it "our" responsibility to provide medical care, when a person could just as easily prepare for that situation by "saving for a rainy day"?

All this emphasis on current consumption does is encourage irresponsibility, and discourage self-sufficiency. People no longer consider the fact that each choice they make means there consequences, and opportunities they must forfeit.

This brutal fact--that we can't have everything we want, convinces people someone is "oppressing" them, and only encourages the greedy politicians to continue to offer hand outs to whomever will get them elected.

What happens under a Keynesian system? Current spending (even if it requires increasing debt) is encouraged, regardless of merit.

People follow the motto: "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tommorw we die."

The inability to control current consumption, to moderate desires, is the biggest problem people in the U.S. face.

What happens if you have lots of debt? You worry. You worry about losing your job. You worry about paying your bills. You worry about getting sick.

You are in a constant state of anxiety. You are easily manipulated by those more powerful than you.

You take jobs you don't like just to pay your bills. You work longer hours than you want to keep the boss happy. You put up with all sorts of disrespect.

Political quacks who promise "quality healthcare" or "affordable housing", or "job security" via. govt. programs become persuasive.

Your fears about not being able to afford medical treatment, find a decent house, or find appropriate employment are allayed.

This is so despite the fact the govt. programs actually result in more expensive medical care, a shortage of affordable housing, and increased unemployment. Govt. programs always result the opposite of their stated goals.

The ultimate result--a growing govt. bureaucracy that takes from the productive (through ever growing taxes), and gives to those who do not take care of themselves.

You get--the State Govt. of NJ.

8/16/2006 09:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I remember the mid 90's when the rest of the family talked me into throwing away our perfectly fine B&W tv and buying a color one. Next thing you know the rabbit ears are no longer good enough and they want cable. Where does it end? How am I ever going to build up any savings this way?

I too see those people walking around in those fancy, expensive jeans, some of them drinking bottled water. Bottled water!! Who would have thought? What would Thoreau say?

8/16/2006 09:37:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Anyone catch Heebner on Bloomberg tonite? He's calling for a pretty hard landing with some markets seeing 50% declines in prices.

For those who don't know who Heebner is, he manages over a billion dollars in the CGM Realty Fund..

grim

8/16/2006 09:41:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Grim,

Didn't catch it tonight, but he was quoted in the WSJ last month:

Ken Heebner manages the $1.2 billion CGM Realty Fund (symbol CGMRX), which has the best 10-year record of all real-estate-focused mutual funds. He expects a significant decline in housing prices, citing a big buildup of home inventories in many previously hot markets. He also worries about borrowers who entered the market in recent years through aggressive mortgages that now will be harder to pay off amid higher rates, prompting more foreclosures. Mr. Heebner is especially concerned about markets in California, Arizona, Florida and the rest of the East Coast.

8/16/2006 10:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ALot of animosity today on these blogs.

There will always be have and have nots. I know what you are going to say, most have not and live off credit, true...I totally agree.

But if someone wears $300 jeans (I happen to wear cavalli jeans myself), don't sweat it. Just think there is a 90% chance that son a bitch is in debt up to his eyes ball, or there is a 10% chance that is one rich son of a bitch....(also the is a .01% chance he may be mob too)...mobsters usually move in a 3 pack. So, if you see that with cavalli jeans, well....there is your .01%.

SAS

8/16/2006 10:37:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

While doing a search on Ken Heebner, I came across this from Aug. 5 2003:

...Two of Heebner's biggest holdings are homebuilders -- Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) in Calabasas, California, and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV), with headquarters in Red Bank, New Jersey. Apparently, Heebner shares my view that talk of a "housing bubble" is exaggerated.

Well, I'm sure he made a lot of money for his clients then.
Depending upon WHEN he sold?
Or if?!

8/16/2006 11:16:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

He sold in Spring of 2005! Smart man.

Last spring CGM Funds' Ken Heebner made what will surely go down as one of the best trades of his illustrious career. Right at the peak of real estate mania, Heebner swapped out of homebuilder stocks--his biggest position in CGM Realty three years running--and plowed the proceeds into energy stocks like Arch Coal and Consol Energy.

8/16/2006 11:21:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Rob Ryley, 10:31, a long post, but a great read!

Especially the long hours part, great stuff.

8/17/2006 09:06:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

FIrst the sales drops, then the price drops. As faras that cape in Rutherford selling close to its asking of 385K, lets ee if it closes.

I have seen listing that were under contract and in a couple of weeks they are back on the market.

Cnno tget financing, or the properties are not appraising out.

8/17/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More information on Eric Schlosser's presentation at Ramampo College:

http://www.ramapo.edu/news/
pressreleases/2006/
08_08_2006c.html


Karen

8/17/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I have seen listing that were under contract and in a couple of weeks they are back on the market. Cannot get financing, or the properties are not appraising out."

Or the Greater Fools woke up just in time.

8/17/2006 09:44:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Rob Ryley said...
8/16/2006 10:31:51 PM

rye:

nice cynical manifesto

me likes :)

8/17/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

delford:

the rutherford house closed last week.

8/17/2006 12:49:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

This is now the third listing for this house, each with a new MLS#, and a new price:

MLS 2310260
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1066418949


From memory (don't have the MLS #s right now, but will later), the three listings were priced as follows:


#1: $1,100,000

#2: $950,000

#3: $924,000


Actual days on market for all these listings combined is over 200.

All three listings were Weichert.

Such deception is all part of the realtor "code of ethics."

8/17/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

the rutherford house closed last week

What street was this C/C on that closed last week?

Thanks, Rich

8/17/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

I see a C/C Under Contract at $385,000 with a proposed closing date of Aug. 22.

Out of 17 houses Under Contract in Rutherford it is the 2nd lowest asking price. Including Active listings it is the 3rd lowest asking price.

Going back one month, nothing closed below $400k.

8/17/2006 01:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

> People follow the motto: "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tommorw we die."

Then again, "Tomorrow Never Comes"

8/17/2006 05:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am the "$500k by 30 guy."

I was in technology consulting.

However, it's not the income. It's the habits.

1) I also lived at home for most of my 20s. Packed it away, hardcore. I got off from the seeing my increasing balance.

2) I always drove cars that cost ~ $2000. The last car I bot was $12k from a dealership, b/c it wasn't worth taking 2 days off to insure and register it....They did it..(I'd lose $2k)

3) Expensive cars and watches DO impress chicks, b/c it exudes confidence and power. confidence and power. confidence and power.

But, be smart, buy it used. YOu can buy a used BMW for the same price as a new Civic.

Buy a used Rolex, etc.

Me? I never buy expensive sunglasses or watches, b/c they ALWAYS get lost. And cars only scratch and dent. Who wants the stress? I'm driving my Accord 'till the bitter death. I hope to reach 200k.

4) CLOTHES: You're better off wearing cheap clothes that fit right, then ill-fitting brand names. And you're better off having 2 good suits vs. 10 shit ones. Dressing well does NOT have to break the bank.

8/17/2006 05:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And just basically watching your budget...

* I rarely eat out. Waste of time and money.

* Don't vacation unless you can afford it. Too many people classify vaca travel as a NECESSESITY vs. a LUXURY.

* Buy used. I've bot used golf clubs, guitars, sofas, cars, etc.

* Don't shop. I keep it minimal. I hate shopping. I hate clutter and chotchkies.

* Don't make stupid investments like plowing it all into dotcoms.

* Learn all the tax games. I save THOUSANDS a year with all my tax strategies.

8/17/2006 06:51:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Anon 10:31 (aka Mr/Ms $300 jeans),

I've lived in Jersey City since September 1989. Moved out here for graduate school from MI. Had only myself, my little car filled with everything I owned in the world and $200 to my name.

I immediately started temping to make money. I lived off of student loans and part time work while I went to school and actually managed to enjoy my life. Yes, I had very little money and I remember when I would go to the bar before they started to charge a cover and would only drink 1 beer (nursing it a veeeerrrrryy long time), since I didn't have money to spend on more than one. Anytime I ventured into the city I took PATH. I never drove because I didn't have much money and I didn't want to spend what little I had on the tunnels and the turnpikes.

In short, I was poor. But I had friends who loved me, I was working toward a career goal and I spent a lot of time exercising (sans gym) jogging and playing a lot of tennis. I look back fondly at those times because I did enjoy myself, depsite not having a lot of money.

You have to make your life satisfying yourself; you can't just buy lots of stuff, spending hoards of money and expect to be happy--it just doesn't work that way.

If you're inclined to feel diminished by what you think others are doing, buying clothes and trinkets aren't going to help that---there will always be others who make more and can spend more than you.

Live within your means and focus your attention on what's really important--your relationships with others and with yourself. And these have nothing to do with $300 jeans.

8/17/2006 10:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

great post. Many forget that the "best years of their lives" coincide with when they were the poorest....high school, college, grad. school...

Clearly....marriage, kids, responsibility, adulthood, routines, suburbia, corporate ladders, mortgages, landscaping, Barney, Baby Einstien, Disney ..are all anathema to happiness...

I'm gonna go get plastered....and thank god I can pretend I am a college student in my 30s....for now...

!!

8/17/2006 10:36:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Hi Anon 11:36pm,

While the aspects of adulthood you mention (marriage, kids, responsibility, adulthood, routines, suburbia, corporate ladders, mortgages, etc.) do have a "daily grind" aspect to them, you are also making my point: most or all of them have to do with relationships with others, in this case your spouse and children.

To be sure, in adulthood, you also may not be able to afford $300 jeans, or fancy cars/vacations since you have these other responsibilities. But these responsibilities are what life is all about. At the end of the day, who are you coming home to and how do you feel being with them?

It's not about how many hat boxes (Zsa Zsa Gabor style!) you walked in the door with.

8/17/2006 11:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

accelerer telechargement achat antivirus achat logiciel achat logiciels achat mp3 acheter logiciel acheter logiciels acrobat ad aware adobe acrobat adresse msn album albums anti spyware anti spyware gratuit anti virus software antivirus antivirus a telecharger antivirus com antivirus download antivirus en ligne antivirus en ligne gratuit antivirus firewall antivirus free antivirus gratis antivirus gratui antivirus gratuis antivirus gratuit antivirus gratuit a telecharger antivirus gratuit francais antivirus gratuitement antivirus kaspersky antivirus ligne gratuit antivirus mac antivirus mcafee antivirus norton antivirus online antivirus personal edition antivirus pour scanner antivirus protection antivirus review antivirus software antivirus wanadoo astrologie astrologie chinoise astrologie gratuite astuce astuce jeu astuce jeu pc astuce jeu video astuce jeux astuce msn astuce msn messenger astuce pc astuces jeux pc astuces pc audrey tatou avast avast antivirus avast antivirus gratuit avatar msn avg avg antivirus baladeur cd mp3 baladeur mp3 baladeur mp3 fm bitdefender cd musique chanson a telecharger chanson a telecharger gratuitement chef recette clean messenger clip musique clip video clone cd clone dvd cocktail code et astuce code et astuces code jeu video code jeux video codec divx codec telecharger comparatif antivirus computer software convertir mp3 convertisseur mp3 convertisseur wma mp3 crack logiciel crack logiciels dessin tatouage dessin tatouages divx divx a telecharger divx codec divx dvd divx gratuit divx player divx pro dvd dvd divx dvd film dvd musique dvd pas cher dvd porno dvd shrink dvd vierge dvd x e messenger ecouter musique ecran de veille a telecharger gratuitement edonkey edonkey 2000 emoticone a telecharger emoticone a telecharger gratuit emoticone msn emoticone msn messenger emule emule 0.46 emule fr emule france emule gratuit emule paradise emule plus emule telechargement emule telechargement gratuit emule telecharger emule telecharger gratuit encodeur mp3 extrait video porno film film a telecharger film a telecharger gratuitement film amateur film cinema film de cul film divx film divx a telecharger film dvd film erotique film gay film gratuit film gratuit a telecharger film pirate telechargement gratuit film porno film porno gratuit film pornographique film sex film sexe film sexe gratuit film telechargement film x film x a telecharger film x amateur film x gratuit film xxx films films a telecharger films de culs films dvd films erotiques films gratuit films porno films porno gratuit films pornographiques films x films x gratuit firewall fond and ecran fond d ecran fond d ecran 3d fond d ecran a telecharger fond d ecran amour fond d ecran animal fond d ecran anne geddes fond d ecran aquarium fond d ecran chat fond d ecran cheval fond d ecran dauphin fond d ecran diddl fond d ecran disney fond d ecran f1 fond d ecran fleurs fond d ecran gratuit fond d ecran humour fond d ecran mangas fond d ecran montagne fond d ecran moto fond d ecran nature fond d ecran ordinateur fond d ecran paysage fond d ecran pc fond d ecran pc gratuit fond d ecran psp fond d ecran sexy fond d ecran star wars fond d ecran tuning fond ecran 3d fond ecran animé fond ecran bebe fond ecran chien fond ecran cinema fond ecran mobile fond ecran montagne fond ecran om fond ecran portable fond ecran printemps fond ecran psp fond ecran saint valentin fond ecran voiture fonds and d ecran fonds and ecran fonds d ecran fonds d ecran 3d fonds d ecran amour fonds d ecran animal fonds d ecran anne geddes fonds d ecran aquarium fonds d ecran chat fonds d ecran cheval fonds d ecran dauphin fonds d ecran diddl fonds d ecran disney fonds d ecran f1 fonds d ecran fleurs fonds d ecran gratuit fonds d ecran humour fonds d ecran mangas fonds d ecran montagne fonds d ecran moto fonds d ecran nature fonds d ecran ordinateur fonds d ecran paysage fonds d ecran pc fonds d ecran pc gratuit fonds d ecran psp fonds d ecran sexy fonds d ecran star wars fonds d ecran tuning fonds ecran 3d fonds ecran anime fonds ecran bebe fonds ecran chien fonds ecran cinema fonds ecran mobile fonds ecran montagne fonds ecran om fonds ecran portable fonds ecran printemps fonds ecran psp fonds ecran saint valentin francaise des jeu francaise des jeux france musique free mp3 free software free wallpapers graveur dvd henne horoscope horoscope 2006 horoscope 2006 gratuit horoscope balance horoscope belier horoscope cancer horoscope capricorne horoscope chinois horoscope du jour horoscope gemeau horoscope gratuit horoscope lion horoscope mensuel horoscope poisson horoscope sagittaire horoscope scorpion horoscope taureau horoscope verseau horoscope vierge hot video hotmail messenger i love messenger icon icone icone gratuit icons image fond d ecran imesh installer msn messenger instant messenger instrument de musique jaquette dvd jaquette film jeu jeu a telecharger jeu a telecharger gratuit jeu a telecharger gratuitement jeu a telecharger sur pc jeu action jeu adulte jeu aventure jeu barbie jeu d avion a telecharger jeu d echec a telecharger jeu de billard a telecharger jeu de carte jeu de carte a telecharger jeu de tarot jeu de voiture jeu de voiture gratuit jeu en ligne jeu en ligne gratuit jeu enfant jeu erotique jeu flash jeu flash a telecharger jeu fr jeu gratiut a telecharger jeu gratuis a telecharger jeu gratuit jeu gratuit a telecharger jeu online jeu pc jeu pc a telecharger jeu pc a telecharger gratuit jeu pc a telecharger gratuitement jeu pc gratuit a telecharger jeu pc telecharger gratuitement jeu pokemon a telecharger jeu pour enfant a telecharger jeu sexe jeu sexy jeu solitaire jeu video jeu video .com jeu video a telecharger jeu video a telecharger gratuitement jeu video com jeu video gratuit jeu video gratuit a telecharger jeu video pc jeu video telecharger jeux jeux a telecharger jeux a telecharger gratuit jeux a telecharger gratuitement jeux a telecharger sur pc jeux action jeux adulte jeux aventure jeux barbie jeux d avion a telecharger jeux d echec a telecharger jeux de billard a telecharger jeux de carte jeux de carte a telecharger jeux de tarot jeux de voiture jeux de voiture gratuit jeux en ligne jeux en ligne gratuit jeux enfant jeux erotique jeux flash jeux flash a telecharger jeux fr jeux gratiut a telecharger jeux gratuis a telecharger jeux gratuit jeux gratuit a telecharger jeux online jeux pc jeux pc a telecharger jeux pc a telecharger gratuit jeux pc a telecharger gratuitement jeux pc gratuit a telecharger jeux pc telecharger gratuitement jeux pokemon a telecharger jeux pour enfant a telecharger jeux sexe jeux sexy jeux solitaire jeux video jeux video a telecharger jeux video a telecharger gratuitement jeux video com jeux video gratuit jeux video gratuit a telecharger jeux video pc kazaa kazaa gratuit kazaa lite kazaa lite telecharger kazaa telecharger lecteur divx lecteur dvd lecteur dvd portable lecteur mp3 logiciel logiciel a telecharger logiciel a telecharger gratuit logiciel a telecharger gratuitement logiciel antivirus logiciel antivirus gratuit logiciel de dessin logiciel de dessin gratuit logiciel de gravure logiciel de gravure gratuit logiciel de mixage logiciel de navigation logiciel de telechargement logiciel de telechargement de musique logiciel de telechargement gratuit logiciel de traduction logiciel de traduction gratuit logiciel divx logiciel dvd logiciel educatif logiciel freeware logiciel gestion logiciel gratuit logiciel gratuit a telecharger logiciel gravure cd logiciel gravure dvd logiciel libre logiciel microsoft logiciel mp3 logiciel msn logiciel multimedia logiciel musique logiciel photo logiciel photo gratuit logiciel video logiciel webcam logiciel windows xp logiciels logiciels a telecharger logiciels antivirus logiciels antivirus gratuit logiciels creation site web logiciels de dessin logiciels de gravure logiciels de gravure gratuit logiciels de telechargement logiciels de telechargement de musique logiciels de telechargement gratuit logiciels de traduction logiciels de traduction gratuit logiciels divx logiciels dvd logiciels excel logiciels freeware logiciels gestion logiciels gratuit logiciels gravure cd logiciels gravure dvd logiciels libre logiciels microsoft logiciels mp3 logiciels msn logiciels multimedia logiciels musique logiciels photo logiciels photo gratuit logiciels pocket pc logiciels professionnel logiciels retouche photo logiciels video logiciels webcam logiciels windows xp logitech quickcam messenger mangas wallpaper mc afee meilleur antivirus messenger messenger 7.5 messenger astuce messenger beta messenger fun messenger msn messenger msn mkt fr messenger plus mirc mns messenger modele de tatouage modele de tatouages montage video motif tatouage motif tatouages mp3 mp3 arabe mp3 creative mp3 download mp3 gratuit mp3 gratuit musique mp3 gratuit telecharger mp3 musique mp3 pas cher mp3 telecharger mp3 telecharger gratuit msm messenger msn msn 5 msn 7 msn 7.0 msn 7.0 telecharger msn 7.5 msn 7.5 telecharger msn 8 msn 8.0 msn astuce msn fr msn gratuit msn hotmail msn jeu msn messenger msn messenger 6 msn messenger 6.2 msn messenger 7 msn messenger 7,5 msn messenger 7.0 msn messenger 7.5 msn messenger 7.5 telecharger msn messenger 8 msn messenger 8.0 msn messenger beta msn messenger gratuit msn messenger mac msn messenger plus msn messenger telecharger msn messenger version 7.5 msn messenger7.5 msn plus msn plus telecharger msn telecharger msn truc astuce msn truc et astuce msn web msn web messenger music a telecharger music mp3 music video musique musique a telecharge musique a telecharger musique a telecharger gratuit musique a telecharger gratuite musique a telecharger gratuitement musique alsace musique arabe musique classique musique de film musique de pub musique download musique francaise musique gratuite musique gratuite a telecharger musique marocaine musique mp3 musique mp3 a telecharger musique telecharge musique telecharger gratuitement nero nero 6 nero 7 nero 7 premium nero burning nero burning rom nero express nero gratuit net messenger norton norton 2005 norton 2006 norton antivirus norton antivirus 2005 norton antivirus 2006 norton ghost norton internet security panda antivirus panda software parole parole chanson parole de musique parole et musique paroles paroles chansons paroles de musique paroles et musique partition partition de musique partition gratuite partition guitare partition magic partition musique partition piano partitions partitions de musique partitions gratuite partitions guitare partitions piano pc astuce personal firewall photo fond ecran photo tatouage photo tatouages piercing piercings player mp3 porno film porno video recette recette asiatique recette barbecue recette cake recette chinoise recette cocktail recette cookie recette courgette recette crepe recette de confiture recette de cuisine recette de julie recette de salade recette dessert recette facile recette gateau recette gateau chocolat recette gaufre recette italienne recette minceur recette paella recette pain recette pizza recette poisson recette poulet recette punch recette rapide recette sangria recette tarte recettes recettes asiatique recettes cake recettes chinoises recettes cookies recettes crepe recettes de cuisine recettes desserts recettes gateau recettes gaufre recettes italienne recettes pizza recettes poisson recettes poulet recettes rapide recettes tarte remove spyware robe de cocktail rom rom game boy advance rom nintendo 64 security software serveur emule sex video sex videos sexe video sexe videos sexy wallpaper shareaza telecharger sims 2 telechargement sims 2 telecharger skin msn skype smiley gratuit telecharger smiley msn software software development software download solution solution jeu solution jeu pc solution jeu video solutions solutions jeux pc solutions jeux videos sony mp3 sortie dvd spybot search and destroy spyware spyware removal spyware remover symantec antivirus tablature tablature guitare tablatures tablatures guitare tarot tarot gratuit tatoo tribal tatouage tatouage au henne tatouage bas du dos tatouage chinois tatouage dragon tatouage maori tatouage papillon tatouage polynesien tatouage tribal tatouage tribals tatouages tatouages au henne tatouages bas du dos tatouages chinois tatouages dragon tatouages maori tatouages papillon tatouages polynesien tatouages tribal telecharge emule telecharge film telechargement telechargement anti virus telechargement anti virus gratuit telechargement antivirus telechargement antivirus gratuit telechargement cd telechargement chanson telechargement codec telechargement com telechargement de jeu video telechargement divx gratuit telechargement e mule telechargement emule gratuit telechargement film telechargement film cinema telechargement film divx telechargement film gratuit telechargement film porno telechargement film x telechargement film x gratuit telechargement films telechargement films gratuit telechargement gratuit telechargement gratuit chanson telechargement gratuit de film telechargement gratuit de music telechargement gratuit de musique mp3 telechargement gratuit emule telechargement gratuit logiciel telechargement gratuit mp3 telechargement gratuit msn telechargement gratuit music telechargement gratuit musique telechargement jeu telechargement jeux telechargement kazaa telechargement logiciel telechargement logiciel gratuit telechargement logiciels telechargement logiciels gratuit telechargement msn 7.5 telechargement msn plus telechargement music telechargement musique telechargement musique gratuit telechargement musique gratuite telechargement musique gratuitement telechargement musique mp3 telechargement nero telechargement porno gratuit telechargement psp telechargement shareaza telechargement video gratuit telechargement video x telechargement winzip telechargements telechargements anti virus telechargements anti virus gratuit telechargements antivirus telechargements antivirus gratuit telechargements cd telechargements chanson telechargements codec telechargements de musique gratuitement telechargements divx telechargements divx gratuit telechargements e mule telechargements film telechargements film divx telechargements film gratuit telechargements film porno telechargements film x telechargements film x gratuit telechargements gratuit telechargements gratuit de chanson telechargements gratuit de music telechargements gratuit de musique mp3 telechargements gratuit emule telechargements gratuit mp3 telechargements gratuit msn telechargements kazaa telechargements logiciel telechargements logiciel gratuit telechargements mp3 telechargements msn 7.5 telechargements msn plus telechargements musique gratuite telechargements musique mp3 telechargements nero telechargements porno gratuit telechargements shareaza telechargements video telechargements video gratuit telechargements video x telechargements winzip telecharger telecharger .com telecharger acrobat telecharger acrobat reader telecharger album telecharger album musique telecharger anti virus gratuit telecharger antivirus telecharger antivirus gratuit telecharger antivirus gratuitement telecharger avast telecharger cd telecharger chanson telecharger chansons telecharger clip video telecharger clone cd telecharger codec telecharger codec divx telecharger codec gratuit telecharger com telecharger des chanson gratuitement telecharger des film gratuitement telecharger des jeu gratuitement telecharger divx telecharger divx gratuit telecharger divx gratuitement telecharger driver telecharger dvd telecharger dvd gratuit telecharger e mule telecharger e mule gratuit telecharger e mule gratuitement telecharger emoticone telecharger emoticone gratuit telecharger emoticone gratuitement telecharger emoticone msn telecharger emulateur telecharger emule telecharger emule gratuit telecharger emule gratuitement telecharger emule plus telecharger film telecharger film divx telecharger film gratuit telecharger film gratuitement telecharger film x telecharger films telecharger films gratuit telecharger films gratuitement telecharger fond d ecran telecharger fond d ecran gratuit telecharger fond ecran telecharger fr telecharger google telecharger google earth telecharger gratuit telecharger gratuit emule telecharger gratuit film telecharger gratuit jeu telecharger gratuitement telecharger gratuitement anti virus telecharger gratuitement des chanson telecharger gratuitement des emoticone telecharger gratuitement e mule telecharger gratuitement emule telecharger gratuitement kazaa telecharger gratuitement logiciel telecharger gratuitement msn telecharger gratuitement msn 7.0 telecharger gratuitement msn 7.5 telecharger gratuitement msn messenger telecharger gratuitement msn messenger 7.0 telecharger gratuitement msn plus telecharger gratuitement musique mp3 telecharger gratuitement real player telecharger gratuitement shareaza telecharger java telecharger jeu telecharger jeu complet telecharger jeu flash telecharger jeu gratuit telecharger jeu pc telecharger jeu pc gratuit telecharger jeu psp telecharger jeu sims telecharger jeu video telecharger jeux telecharger jeux complet telecharger jeux gratuit telecharger jeux pc telecharger jeux psp telecharger jeux video telecharger kazaa telecharger kazaa en francais telecharger kazaa gratuit telecharger kazaa gratuitement telecharger kazaa lite telecharger kazaa lite gratuit telecharger kazaa little telecharger les sims 2 telecharger les sims gratuit telecharger les sims gratuitement telecharger limewire telecharger logiciel divx telecharger logiciel easy studio telecharger logiciel mp3 gratuit telecharger logiciel musique telecharger mario telecharger messenger telecharger messenger 7 telecharger messenger 7.0 telecharger messenger 7.5 telecharger messenger plus telecharger monopoly telecharger mp3 telecharger mp3 gratuit telecharger mp3 gratuitement telecharger msn telecharger msn 7 gratuitement telecharger msn 7.0 telecharger msn 7.0 gratuitement telecharger msn 7.5 telecharger msn 7.5 francais telecharger msn 8.0 telecharger msn beta telecharger msn gratuit telecharger msn gratuitement telecharger msn mesenger telecharger msn messager telecharger msn messenger 7.0 telecharger msn messenger 7.5 telecharger msn messenger 8.0 telecharger msn messenger gratuit telecharger msn messenger gratuitement telecharger msn messenger plus telecharger msn messenger7.0 telecharger msn plus telecharger msn plus gratuitement telecharger msn version 7.5 telecharger music gratuitement telecharger music mp3 telecharger musique telecharger musique film telecharger musique gratuite telecharger musique gratuitement telecharger musique mp3 gratuit telecharger musique mp3 gratuitement telecharger musique sur mp3 telecharger nero telecharger nero 6 telecharger nero gratuit telecharger nero gratuitement telecharger norton antivirus telecharger norton antivirus 2005 telecharger objet sims telecharger objet sims 2 telecharger power point telecharger rap telecharger real player telecharger real player gratuit telecharger shareaza telecharger shareaza gratuit telecharger shareaza gratuitement telecharger sims 2 telecharger skype telecharger video telecharger video x telecharger winamp telecharger winzip telecharger winzip gratuit telecharger word telecharger yahoo messenger test antivirus tirage tarot tirage tarot gratuit traduction logiciel traduction logiciels trucs vente logiciel video video amateur video amateur gratuit video amateur gratuite video amateur x video chat video clip video clips video coquin video cul gratuit video de cul video de cul gratuite video de sexe a telecharger video erotique video erotique gratuite video futur video games video gay video gay gratuit video gay gratuite video gratuit video gratuite video gratuite gay video gratuite sexe video hard video hentai video hentai gratuit video internet video lesbienne video lesbienne gratuite video mature video porno video porno a telecharger video porno amateur video porno gratuit video porno gratuite video porno telecharger video salope video sex video sex gratuit video sexe video sexe amateur video sexe gratuit video sexe gratuite video sexy video voyeur video x video x a telecharger video x amateur video x gratuit video x gratuite video xxx video xxx gratuit video xxx gratuite videos videos amateur videos de culs videos erotiques videos gay videos gay gratuites videos gratuit videos gratuites videos gratuites sexe videos hard videos lesbiennes videos porno videos porno gratuit videos porno gratuites videos sex videos sex gratuit videos sexe videos sexe gratuit videos sexe gratuites videos sexy videos x videos x gratuit videos x gratuites videos xxx wallpaper wallpaper gratuit wallpaper mangas wallpaper photo wallpaper sexy wallpapers wallpapers gratuit wallpapers mangas wallpapers photo wallpapers sexy web messenger windows live messenger windows messenger winmx xxx video xxx videos yahoo messenger yahoo messenger 6 yahoo messenger 6.0 zodiaque zone alarm

8/18/2006 04:46:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home