Monday, August 07, 2006

Underestimating the Landing

From the Wall Street Journal:

As Data Point to Slowdown, Housing Market May Land Harder Than Economists Predict

Home prices in some parts of the country are falling. Builders are scaling back. Bubble or not, the biggest housing boom in recent U.S. history is coming to an end.

Now here is the big question: How bad will the aftermath be? At this point, most economists expect a "soft landing," a gradual decline that won't derail the nation's economic expansion, now in its fifth year.

But there is a good chance they are being too optimistic. The boom has depended heavily on the upbeat psychology of consumers, builders and lenders. As moods swing, the landing could be very hard indeed.

"We could be underestimating the dark side," says Mark Zandi, chief U.S. economist at Moody's Economy.com and among the first to seek to quantify the housing boom's broader effects. "Euphoria could turn into abject pessimism very quickly."
...
Economists, however, have few clues on which to base their predictions. Today's housing boom differs radically from its predecessors. For one, it has been bigger and longer-lived. House prices are still more than twice the level of 1991, when the boom began. Even after the recent decline, June's rate of home sales is 40% above the 20-year average.

Much of the recent increase has been driven by an unprecedented flood of cash into U.S. capital markets. Global demand for U.S. mortgage bonds, competition among big national lenders and the advent of exotic loans have made it easier than ever to borrow money to buy a house -- and to turn rising home values into cash.
...
But that isn't all. Economists can't quantify some risks, including the biggest: the chance that a sharp drop in house prices -- what economists call a "disorderly downturn" -- would leave many homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. If that led to a wave of foreclosures and losses on riskier mortgage-backed securities, banks and investors could get spooked and cut back on all kinds of lending -- a move that could snuff out economic growth.

"For me, the risk of a disorderly downturn is the greater one," Mr. Hatzius says. "That's a scenario that people would worry about a lot, because typically recessions are the result of a general unwillingness to lend."

56 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"BP shuts down major Alaskan oil field"
http://tinyurl.com/nua2s

I am sticking to my guns. I still think come Labor Day...$100/barrel/crude.

I hate it when I am right.

I know a pipeline enginner up there, going to call her this afternoon to get the full scope as to whats going on. Can't trust the media on this one. I'll let you boys know the skinny as soon as I get some info.

SAS

8/07/2006 05:06:00 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

ot but worth reading.

a good overview on the fundamentals of the us markets from hussman

http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

from germany
jmf

8/07/2006 05:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hallo Jmf,

it seems to me that Germany did not have a real estate bubble as in the US or in the UK. Is this right? Wonder why?

Andreas in NY

8/07/2006 06:18:00 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

hi,

no. we have had our bubble with massive overbuilding after our reunion in 1990.after that we have had almost no aprreciation. a lot of bank have had big write off of loans.

after that period we entederd a resession in germany. our guidelines for financing are very tight and the majority of financing is done with fixed rates. we have no "creative" financing/lending.

in the past 18 month a lot of private equity forms and big pensionsfunds from the us and uk are buying massiv properties in germany. worth around 100 billion!!!! and they want to buy more. these are almost only rentalflats. but they think that relative to the rets of the world it is cheap. the bubble is rolling......

8/07/2006 06:30:00 AM  
Blogger patient homebuyer said...

$100 a barrel translates into what $5 a gallon gas, i am glad i have a
very economical car.

as a side note i was out at a friends house on long island this weekend, huge home over an acre of
property. my friend does very well in the nymex, lucky for him his electric bill for june and july was over $1200, and in his area which is very nice there are so many homes for sale in the 2m or so range, this landing will be harder than predicted oh did i forget the taxes in that part of town in 15-18k range

ouch

8/07/2006 06:43:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

The zip codes I'm watching are FROZEN.

A handful of deals in the past 2 months.

That's a hundreds of agents fighting for the same few houses going into contract.

Good luck to all the realtors recently making a career change, to cash in on the real estate bubble...

8/07/2006 06:56:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

T-29 hours. Bonus points to anyone that can write a Fed parody of "Benny and the Jets" by Elton John..

grim

8/07/2006 07:49:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Will that oil field shut down have an effect on the Fed's decision tomorrow? If we're looking at $80 a barrel, will they freak out and pause?

8/07/2006 08:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think if we see $100/barrel of crude. The price will be around $4.00-$4.50/gallon. I think anyways...

May question for the blog is at what price of gas would it really effect you to the point where you will cut spending elsewhere and perhaps walk,bike, carpool etc?

I think for most Americans its $4.00.

I this were to happen, the fed just may very well pause.

As for me, I always ride my bike, and walk to places if I can. I sometims even pick people up on route 4 to go over the GWB because I want the car pool rate. ($1 vs.$6).

My everyday car is a BMW M5.
he he..yes, even with a car like that, I still am that cheap. Thats how come I can afford the damn thing.

;)
SAS

8/07/2006 08:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me clarify myself.

I think the Fed will still raise tomorrow.

But if we see $100/crude, I think at the next meeting, they may pause to let the oil markets work its way out.

Not really a Bush fan, but I did agree with him when he said we were addicted to oil.

He was damn right on that, just too bad he is doing lip service and he is just a puppet to the higher ups.

SAS

8/07/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

If only gas prices would drop to $2 / gallon, then I would be able to afford a decent house with the extra $30 saved each month.

8/07/2006 08:12:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I always laugh when I read local real estate experts cite high gas prices as a main reason why sales of homes are slowing. if you're contemplating spending $4,000+ per month on a home (which is typical around here), is another $75 a month on gas really going to break you?

energy consumption is still breaking records. we have a long way to go before people start riding bikes

8/07/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

The big question there is.. Are high oil prices inflationary or not?

grim

8/07/2006 08:35:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

T-29 hours.

I’m betting on a pause tomorrow, however I’m not sure the Fed is really done yet. They could stand pat tomorrow and raise again in September.

As I have said before though, I think Realtors® need to be careful what they wish for. The threat of rising interest rates is the one and only thing creating some sense of urgency to “buy now”; it’s the one thing keeping the market going at this point. If the Fed is done and rates stabilize, “Better buy now or rising interest rates will price you out forever” won’t work anymore. What’s left in the Realtor® bag-o-tricks?

8/07/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Folks:

What is the story with RealtyTrac? Is the info on that site available elsewhere, and if so, where?

I see a lot of listings with RealtyTrac in NNJ.com's realty webpages--are these all foreclosures?

Any feedback greatly appreciated.

Jamey

ps: SAS:

Bush didn't say that we're addicted to oil; he reversed course and finally agreed to what others had been telling him since he took office.

Remember: Bush was the one who, in 2000, promised to "jawbone" his friends in Saudi Arabia and elsewheres to put more oil on the markets.

What astonishes me is that we elect TWO** Texas oilmen as president and vice president...and then act surprised that our energy policy roughly amounts to increasing demand and seeking supply without regard to consequences. (**Cheney had to petition an Appelate court in 2000 to have his official state of residency changed from Texas back to Wyoming, because the Constitution prohibits a the election of a pres and vp from the same state).

I'm not saying Iraq was a war for oil, but would we have been so hot and bothered to attack Iraq if they weren't sitting on the second largest known reserves? Just a question that's been bugging me for the past three or four years.

8/07/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bonus points to anyone that can write a Fed parody of "Benny and the Jets" by Elton John..

Is this close enough, Grim:

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

From: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/04/every_change_of.html

-Jamey

8/07/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Blogger lindsey said...

From the WSJ article:

"Even after the recent decline, June's rate of home sales is 40% above the 20-year average."

I hate sentences like that in newspapers. I can't figure out why that's there other than to reassure the willfully delusional that they are on the right track.


Is it possible that someone who wantes to understand today's RE market gets any value from an average sales metric which includes 1986, or even '96?

Oh, and for what its worth, Fed pause.

8/07/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Is this close enough, Grim:
-Jamey
8/07/2006 10:04:47 AM

J

critiqued here some months ago

i think that crap is a disgrace

8/07/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oil markets are manipulated and the US needs to manipulate back. We need to down play the whole oil thing formulated plans for biofuel to replace 20% of all petro-fuel used in motor vehicles, trucks, and buses. To do this we should use tax benefits for doing so, we also should promote the idea of Central and South American countries to produce ethanol and biodiesel for the US(Additionally we could aid their governments and it would help farmers avoid growing coca, if we gave them a crop other than $0.05 a pound cofee, coca production would drop).

Additionally the government should use credits that promote saving energy and actually increase the taxes on things known to be inefficient and wasteful of oil products. Credits for good diesel cars and good diesel fuel perhaps? The diesel should makes its way to the US.

Also, coal and waste products, we can use this to make diesel. TDP a process perfected in the US by a company, Changing World Technologies. More plants will be built in Europe than the US.

The simple answer is the government has not been doing the right things and hasn't for a while. We need to be realistic, people in the US are unwilling to do what is neccessary to ensure the sucess of this country. Our grandparents are probably rolling over in their graves. Americans want to live rich and not work for it, we have a sense of entitlement and this causes our inept government to pander to these people while getting away with murder.

The point is if the US were proactive and not a tool of the oil companies we would bring this perception about the scarcity of oil and disruption to the supply down. Additionally if we had not been promoting the waste of oil through the 80-90's perhaps the situation would be different.

8/07/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry about that, but my time on this site barely predates 7/06.

Did you go to Columbia Biz, Chi?

-Jamey

8/07/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Is it possible that someone who wantes to understand today's RE market gets any value from an average sales metric which includes 1986, or even '96?
8/07/2006 10:07:01 AM

yes it does

part of any metric's value is context

8/07/2006 09:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope oil goes to $500 per barrel. Finally we will then have private investment in technology to get us off of this dam oil drug once and for all. God knows the govt has no interest in doing it. Instead of fighting terror the way we should (economically), we just buy more oil and send more soldiers over. I cannot believe how stupid some can be. Truly.

8/07/2006 09:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Did you go to Columbia Biz, Chi?"

No - but I did. Class of 2000. Just another Wall Streeter waiting for the market to crash.

8/07/2006 09:14:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
Did you go to Columbia Biz, Chi?
-Jamey
8/07/2006 10:09:40 AM

no Chicago

chicagofinance ==== get it :)

Actually the origin of the handle is from my Corporate Finance professor Owen Lamont [arrogant jerk]. He said on the first day of class "...this is Chicago Finance, now drop and give me 20..." --- it was classic even though he was a clown

8/07/2006 09:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

High Oil Prices are extremely inflationary.

The cost of mfging plastics, cardboard, fertilizer just about everything is impacted by higher energy prices.

Don't let the talking heads fool you.

Many Americans are getting squeeezed with escalating cost. First to get wacked should be discretionary items...restaurants.ect.

Live low. McMansion owners are feeling the pain. Probably many are regretting the upgrade.

Bababaa

Boooooooooyaaaaaaaaaaa

Bob

8/07/2006 09:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Americans are extremely wasteful. Just conserving and driving cars that get over 30 mpg should help tremendously short-term, but long-term country needs to make major commitment to alternative sources.

Babababa

HOUSING BUST!
Bob

8/07/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

BabababBob:

Also being able to afford a house within 30 miles of where you live and have the commute be 30 minutes.

Don't drive a gas guzzler, don't drive far to work, don't waste gas sitting in traffic.

8/07/2006 09:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

People are still spending money hand over fist.

Even though we have an 'affordable housing crisis' (according to AMNY), people are still driving more than ever and restaurants / retail stores are seeing booming business.

How do people do it especially now with triple digit electric bills??

8/07/2006 09:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{{{I always laugh when I read local real estate experts cite high gas prices as a main reason why sales of homes are slowing. if you're contemplating spending $4,000+ per month on a home (which is typical around here), is another $75 a month on gas really going to break you?}}}

$4,000 is what the average person in Manhattan spends on Clothes & Restaurants.

$4,000 a month in total PITI would be enough for a starter home out in Central Suffolk past Ronkonkoma

8/07/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

Just for you!

Hey kids, 25 basis points this meeting
The spotlight's hitting something
That's been known to change the market
We'll kill the housing market now
So stick around
You're gonna hear eclectic musings
dense walls of prose
Say, Alan and Paully, have you seen them yet
But they're so aged out,BuhBuhBuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Oh but they're terse and they're obfuscated
Oh Bennie Maria's really keen
She's got selected quotes an ox to gore
You know I read it in Money Magazine
Ah ha, BuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Hey kids, buy into the bullcrap
Maybe they're through
But Bennie makes them feckless
We shall survive, let us take our debts along
Where we fight our lenders out in the streets To find who's fixed rate and who's not
Say, Alan and Paully, have you seen them yet
But they're so aged out,BuhBuhBuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Oh but they're terse and they're obfuscated
Oh Bennie she's really keen
She's got electric boots a mohair suit
You know I read it in a magazine
Ah ha, BuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Say, Alan and Paully, have you seen them yet
But they're so aged out,BuhBuhBuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Oh but they're terse and they're obfuscated
Oh Bennie Maria's really keen
She's got selected quotes an ox to gore
You know I read it in Money Magazine
Ah ha, BuhBuh Bennie and the Feds
Bennie, Bennie and the Feds
Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie and the Feds
Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie and the Feds

8/07/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am sticking to my guns.

Might be time to buy some more...

Oh, and color me very glad of my motorcycle and diesel car... I traded in a 17mpg SUV about 4 years ago, I knew this was coming..

And who knows, if diesel begins to match gas in price it may be worth it to make my own..

8/07/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Is that $4000 figure a statement of fact or opinion?

jb

8/07/2006 09:54:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I'm not saying Iraq was a war for oil, but would we have been so hot and bothered to attack Iraq if they weren't sitting on the second largest known reserves? Just a question that's been bugging me for the past three or four years."


People have been talking about Iraq far longer than 3-4 years:

http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html

Also, note that simply lifting UN sanctions on Iraq would have opened the flow of oil from Iraq. The problem wasn't oil flow, it was a psychotic dictator, as the above link illustrates.

Lastly, no one is stopping Japan, or other countries, from coming up with "fuel alternatives" -- the problem is most of these technologies are too expensive and don't deliver much benefit (yet). There is no conspiracy, unless you think Japan and others are in on it.

8/07/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{{Is that $4000 figure a statement of fact or opinion?}}}

It's opinion.
Green-eyed, jealous, envious opinion.

8/07/2006 09:58:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Just didn't know, so I asked. I've never really dug into the data.

Here is an interesting link on that topic though..

http://stats.bls.gov/opub/uscs/2002-03.pdf

grim

8/07/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fixed income, welfare class, and median income families are hurting.

Don't let the silence fool you. And PLEASE do not permit your protected existence (if you live in a money fortress) to keep you from being able to relate gas prices with your bread and butter.
I'm sorry to observe what appears to be lack of comprehension on this board.

NOBODY on a fixed income takes a doubling of gas prices hit in two years and walks away clean and sober. Median income can also be equated to fixed currently, all else equal, with little to no wage growth in the last five years.

http://tinyurl.com/387rj

$200 extra in gasoline for a family of 4 earning $70,000 a year is a big hit.

It means two less trips to Walmart for all the crap they normally buy in a month. Over three years, that equals layoffs and consolidations.

It means less money in the church basket, filtering way down through charitable organizations.

$200 a month for the bulk of Americans is a huge chunk of change. It may be peanuts to some of us here, but that's going to be where our job losses come from. That's MY prediction.

Pat

8/07/2006 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I recognize the broad effects high gas prices can and probably will have, but I still the idea is ridiculous that $3.25 gas is prohibiting people in NYC-metro from purchasing $700,000 homes.

if high gas prices really are prohibiting these transactions, then most buyers are even more out of their depth than we think

8/07/2006 10:48:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

When debt-to-income ratios are pushed well past historic norms, even minor increases in expenditures become "financial shocks".

grim

8/07/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor: Freedom Agenda? Was the Volkisher Beobachteter's site down? But what does that prove, other than that politicians will say anything, and that the camera hates Hillary? Big difference between Clinton and Bush on Iraq, however, is that Clinton was wise enough not to commit to another ground war in Mesopotamia--sometimes, the best move you make is the move you don't make...

Lifting the UN sanctions? That only would have denied the US control over Iraq's oil.

Once again: There were despots elsewhere in the world, so why didn't we Desert Storm their arses into the ground? Why just the Middle East--or, specifically, the parts thereof that are floating on oil?

And, while you're pointing fingers, why issit that the US can act unilaterally in projecting force (e.g., Iraq--and don't give me that "coalition" nonsense; the number don't bear it in any more than a rhetorical sense), but we have to wait till other nations, like Japan, move first to curb their energy use and find a solution? The US uses 20%-25% of the world's energy. Who better to take the lead, starting with adequate funding and the proper marshalling of official resources (Tom Friedman's Manhattan Project Redux philosophy)? Till we reach that point, why not conservation first?--Dick Cheney decried it as noble, but not American. What made Bush change his mind? I'm glad he finally saw reason but, really, if I want advice on how to kick meth, the LAST person I would ask is my dealer ;)

Was being facetious when I used the three or four year timeframe for Iraq: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3249.htm

(Sorry, I didn't realize you couldn't see me doing the two-finger "air quotes" while I was typing). And while we're scouring Freedom Agenda to unearth everything the damned "libruls" said about Iraq, why not look for the participants in the Veep's top-secret energy policy comittee. Think they also discussed Iraq back in 4/01?

Bush was elevated to power in part to help continue our "addiction" to cheap energy. Our military strategy and economy are predicated on the widespread availability of cheap oil. Having failed to cut the Gordian know--allowing us to use more, and want less--Bush pushed the PNAC line, and conflated war in Iraq as part of the response to al Qaeda. Unfortunately, that plan backfired--just not in the face of the Bush backers who stood to gain the most.

Or that's how I interpreted my latest fever dream (sponsored by Halliburton, who entered the lowest bid)...

We can continue this discussion off-line; this is not the forum for a back-and-forth on Bush's folly, or those who continue to enable it.

-Jamey

8/07/2006 11:17:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Feel free to use the forums for off-topic discussions.

NJREReport Forums

grim

8/07/2006 11:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Metroplexual-

Excellent!! U are quite creative!! :) Got a good laugh.

ak

8/07/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

AK,

Thanks, I just think a little humor helps. If anyone wants to improve the verses be my guest. I only put like 3 minutes into it.

8/07/2006 11:45:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I screwed up on of the verses also.

8/07/2006 11:49:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

What happens if contrary to the commomn belief in a pause, that the Fed hikes again to bolster a weakening dollar so people will buy our debt and to stop inflation as some economists believe is necessary?

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/story_content.asp?story_uid=19564&prodtype=mtg

Bonds await Fed's decision

Monday, Aug. 7
Posted 11:45 a.m. EDT
STEADY: Bond yields are at a standstill as investors become more convinced that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates when its rate-setting committee meets tomorrow.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is 4.91 percent this morning, same as Friday's close. Freddie Mac's required net yields are down slightly, so if there's any movement in mortgage rates, it's to the downside.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, people can buy and sell contracts based upon the Fed's rate-setting actions. The prices of these federal funds rate futures show implicitly that the market believes there's an 87 percent chance that the Fed will stand pat Tuesday, keeping the federal funds rate at 5.25 percent. It would be the first time in more than two years that the Fed has met and not raised rates. There's a 13 percent chance, according to the futures market, that the Fed will raise rates another quarter of a percentage point.

Send in your questions to hlewis@bankrate.com.

Mortgage Matters is a blog on housing and mortgage issues written by Senior Reporter Holden Lewis

8/07/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/zxplt

"Slim pickings for real estate vultures
There may be a real estate slowdown, but bargain hunters still aren't finding much to feast on."


Vultures? I thought the vultures were out last summer. Or were THEY hawks?

Pat

8/07/2006 01:08:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

you know those townhouses in River Edge that they are building? The ones with the underground parking in a horrible location? Well... They have all been on the market for 90 days. Not 1 has sold. They have reduced the price from $699,000 to $629,000. Monthly association fees are $388.21. The tax amount has not been established yet, but knowing River Edge, it will probably be around 10k a year. This is what the listing says:

This New 4 Townhome And 1 Large Penthouse Development Is A One Of A Kind To This Area. This Property Follows The Concept Of Modern Living With House Size Properties With The Convience Of Multiple Modes Of Transportation To The Indoor Parking Garage And Elevator. The Elegant Exterior Styling, Designer Kitchens And Baths And Detailed Finishes Will Deminstrate The Unique Quialities Of This Property. The Penthouse Has A Roof Top Entertainment Area Along With Spectacular Views. Garage Storage. All 9' Ceilings Sq Footage Of 2380 Is Net Does Not Included Commom Area In Calculation Units Available Up To 5000 Sq Ft Approx.

I love the spelling!

So, lets assume that the taxes are 10k a year. Lets see how much a month this would cost figuring you buy it for 600k

20% down = $120,000. Therefore, you would probably need to have about 130 - 140k in cash to cover closing costs, lawyer fees, etc
Your mortgage would then be $480,000
Your monthly mortgage payment would be approx $3,000 a month (assuming a 30 yr fixed rate mortgage at 6.3%)

$3,000 Mortgage
$800 Taxes
$388 Association

Grand Total: $4,188.00 a month. This $4,188 a month does not include utilities, food, entertainment, BMW lease payment, etc.

So, to afford this, realistically, you would need to pull in a combined income of at least $150,000 a year (while contributing 10 % for 401K). This figure would probably have to be more because I didn't deduct for medical, NJ tax, Unemployment, medicare and workforce

$150,000 gross salary = 91,307.50 net salary with 10% 401 k deduction, leaves you with $7023.65 a month less your mortgage and taxes and association would be $2,835.65 (to spend on food, utilities, entertainment, etc).

8/07/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

thebigwindow,

do you have a link to those townhouses.

CC

8/07/2006 02:04:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/07/2006 02:05:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Ah, here it is

http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2619307&id=999999

MLS # 2619307

8/07/2006 02:08:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Once again: There were despots elsewhere in the world, so why didn't we Desert Storm their arses into the ground?"


The answer to your question was already answered at the link provided (Albright, Edwards, et al):

http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html

As for "unilateral" UN resolution 1441 was unanimous, and the allies who engaged in Operation Iraqi Freedom are the same exact allies who stormed the beaches at Normandy, save Canada.

And your point that one can state a psychotic dictator is "the greatest security threat we face" (Albright at above link) who is willing "to provide WMD to terrorists" (Clinton at above link) and yet not actually address such threats is hardly something to champion.

I think Senator John D. Rockefeller (D-WV) summarized the post 9-11 world nicely at the above link.

I agree this isn't the forum to discuss these things, but you brought it up.

8/07/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Or that's how I interpreted my latest fever dream (sponsored by Halliburton, who entered the lowest bid)"


Another example of misinformed anti-Bush hysteria.

In the 1990s (under Clinton) the US military looked for ways to assist the logistics associated with foreign interventions and came up with the "US Army Logistics Civil Augmentation Program" (LOGCAP). The program is a multi-year contract for a corporation to be 'on call' to quickly provide any services needed. President Clinton used Halliburton "without bids" in the unilateral war (no UN approval like we had in Iraq) he started in the Balkans against a country which did not threaten Americans.

8/07/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Sorry Grim, I read top to bottom.

:(

8/07/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Pat - that pic of the real estate vulture on CNNMoney.com is so cute :)

8/07/2006 03:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i had a reltor tell me this weekend that this is temporary slowdown. prices will not go down only yes you guessed it level off. there is an article going around his office from the nar or njar about demand over the next ten years will cause prices to continue to rise. i asked where the demand is going to come from? the reply was population increase. so there you have it hurry and buy while prices have temporarily leveled off

8/07/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski were a bunch of knuckleheads. They really screwed up in Iran.

Because of this, we still have those problems today in the middle east. (Iraq war and Iran)

There is your history lesson for the day.

SAS

8/07/2006 08:51:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

thatbigwindow: Those town houses you speak of are ugly, and in probably one of the worst lcoations in all of Bergen County, you cannot even park your car on the street, you back up to commercial business, and there are old dumpy apartments next door.

Your view is the chiminies and roof tops of those buildings,and the River Edge train station.

Oh you are close to the train, you will be able to hear them all the time, and just look at how traffic backs up onto Kindrkamack Rd, when the trains come in.

But do notworry, people who want to be close to the train for NYC, are going to snap them up, and lets not forget the view, on a really clear night on the penthouse level, you might be able to see a vague outline of the empire state building.

But as you entertain your sophiscated guests, you will not be able to hear each other, due to the traffic roar, which is 24/7 from Kinderkamack Rd.

It is truly amazing that the guy who built this chose that spot.

But here is the kicker, the developer of the property is the Boro Engineer for River Edge, the town would not approve his plans for the development, so he took the town to court, he won, the town lost, and he is STILL the Boro Engineer. Its a bizzare little town indeed.

8/08/2006 12:49:00 PM  

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