Tell Them What You'll Pay
By request, another edition of Tell Them What You'll Pay. There was some confusion the last time we tried to do this, we ended up with a 100 comment long discussion on the example I picked.
I've received a number of emails lately, which all asked the same question. If people are boycotting open houses, and not placing bids, how are sellers supposed to know that their homes are overpriced? It's a good question. Unless the sign in sheets are blank, and their home has been on the market a long time, they probably don't. Very few people in New Jersey are keeping as close a watch on the market as we are, agents included.
Instructions:
1) Open the Realtor.com website. Realtor.com
2) Pick a property that interests you (don't worry, this isn't a binding contract)
3) Cut and paste the property description into a reply here. Include the price, description, MLS number, and link (if you know how). Most importantly, include the price at which you would consider buying the property. No, not $1, not even $10, but the point at which you would give it serious consideration.
Here is an example to give you an idea of what we are all looking for:
--------
Chester, NJ - Asking $599,000
3 Bedroom Victorian, 1 1/2 Baths
MLS ID#: 2283475
I would give this property serious consideration at $475,000-$500,000.
This property has already been reduced from $619,000, not sure if it has been relisted. It was purchased in June of 2004 for $429,000.
--------
Don't worry about the additional details or photo that I posted, If you don't have MLS access, someone who does can follow up with further details about the purchase price, price history, days on market, etc.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
I've received a number of emails lately, which all asked the same question. If people are boycotting open houses, and not placing bids, how are sellers supposed to know that their homes are overpriced? It's a good question. Unless the sign in sheets are blank, and their home has been on the market a long time, they probably don't. Very few people in New Jersey are keeping as close a watch on the market as we are, agents included.
Instructions:
1) Open the Realtor.com website. Realtor.com
2) Pick a property that interests you (don't worry, this isn't a binding contract)
3) Cut and paste the property description into a reply here. Include the price, description, MLS number, and link (if you know how). Most importantly, include the price at which you would consider buying the property. No, not $1, not even $10, but the point at which you would give it serious consideration.
Here is an example to give you an idea of what we are all looking for:
--------
Chester, NJ - Asking $599,000
3 Bedroom Victorian, 1 1/2 Baths
MLS ID#: 2283475
I would give this property serious consideration at $475,000-$500,000.
This property has already been reduced from $619,000, not sure if it has been relisted. It was purchased in June of 2004 for $429,000.
--------
Don't worry about the additional details or photo that I posted, If you don't have MLS access, someone who does can follow up with further details about the purchase price, price history, days on market, etc.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
92 Comments:
The example I posted is just an example, so don't get too carried away with it. It was selected at random.
Realize that this exercise is somewhat revealing of your financial position. Thus, I would strongly suggest that you post your selections anonymously.
grim
Kendall Park, NJ 08824
MLS ID#: 4785024
$394,900
3 Bed, 2 Bath
0.35 Acres
1960 ranch. Similar houses currently listed $360 - $430. Comparable houses selling for $170 in 1998, $190 2001, $250 in 2002. Would seriously offer in the region of $259. Certainly no more. These houses are essentially kit homes, the construction is nothing special, but the neighbourhood is OK.
And to clarify -
I drive through that development all the time. Once houses there sold in a matter of days, with multiple bids (they made a good starter). Now the area is covered in For Sale signs and only one or two has sold since March. These houses have all been on the market for several months.
BRIDGEWATER TWP, NJ 08807
MLS ID#: 2277597
$974,000
4 Bed, 3.5 Bath
0.91 Acres
Nice house. But a million dollars?
$650. Tops.
BAY HEAD, NJ 08742
MLS ID#: 10076402
$1,145,000
4 Bed, 3.5 Bath
3,200 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 2006
1 car garage
Heating features: 2 Zoned Heat, Natural Gas
Exterior construction: Vinyl
Roofing: Shingled
Approximate lot is 50 X 140
I'd pay $700k
I have to start with the caveat that I'm not sure I would be comfortable buying much of anything right now. I would really only consider a move if it was an absolute steal on a house I loved.
That said, this house is terrific and in a great location. It is, even at my lowball price, probably out of my price range (unless I find a sucker for my house) but I would try and make it happen.
Fabulous 7 year old 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath Seashore Colonial with mahogany "rocking chair" front porch. Hardwood floors throughout 1st floor, bright and open eat in kitchen w/center island, family room w/fireplace, spacious and private back yard & beautifully landscaped with perennial gardens. Less than 2 blocks to the beach in the desirable north end of Belmar, steps to restaurants, shops, beach & lake.
To access this webpage directly, use http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060699327
The listing is $1,249,000.
I would be very serious at $700K
I know that drop seems enormous, but right now the market in Monmouth County's beach communities is saturated.
There are literally hundreds of $1Mil+ homes for sale, and I just don't think there are that many available buyers at that price. Even $700K could look good.
Tax records show the house was purchased by the current owners in 1999 for $335K
Re: house in Belmar at 10:20:35 based on Anon 10:13 for the house in Bay Head, maybe I'm not too far off.
That Bridgewater house was reduced from $999,999, 85 days on market.
It was purchased on 8/29/2000 for $535,000.
grim
WESTFIELD TOWN, NJ 07090
MLS ID#: 2290185
$619,000
4 Bed, 2.5 Bath
0.8 Acres
I am ready to pay for this property 425K to 450K hoping there are no major structural defects.
Branchburg, NJ 08876
MLS ID#: 2303696
$519,900
4 Bed, 2.5 Bath
0.2 Acres
I would offer $420,000 even though I think that is too high, but other homes in this community have been selling near asking price in a relatively short amount of time.
Does anyone have any general thoughts (for example schools, taxes) on Branchburg?
How does Branchburg compare to its surrounding area, for example, Bridgewater?
Grim... I would appreciate it greatly if you can obtain information on when this house was purchased and for how much... THANKS ! ! !
PS... excellent blog... you and the other contributors have saved my wife and I a great deal of money by leveling the playing with the knowledge and information your providing.
~ First Time Buyer ~
in regards to westfield house, it's in the southern most part, not the most desirable and at those taxes maybe i'd give $400k
Grim -
"Bridgewater house was reduced from $999,999, 85 days on market.
It was purchased on 8/29/2000 for $535,000."
Then $650k - $675k is more than fair.
Why would you pay anything at the beginning of a down turn?
The sellers know something is wrong by instinct. I rather wait them out until desperation produces results.
-Gustav
MLS 2300523
32 Whitney Rd, Short Hills
Asking price: $900K
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1064773162
I'd offer them $595K, which is what they paid for the place in October 2004. Let them choke on their expected $300,000 "appreciation."
"I have to start with the caveat that I'm not sure I would be comfortable buying much of anything right now. I would really only consider a move if it was an absolute steal on a house I loved."
Well said, I'm with you on that one.
while this is a good exercise, i worry that some of these offers you guys are making are laughable.
Yes, the market is going down, and YES, many, many homes on the market are overpriced, but these lowballs aren't even remotely realistic.
we plan on getting into the NJ market to buy in the next few months (i know, i know, we should wait) and i can't imagine going in and offering 200k below what they're asking.
that's just wrong. if the place is that overpriced, i wouldn't even look at it or consider it.
back to shark week ...
anon 2:23 -
There is nothing wrong with giving the seller a lowball price. They can ignore you if they are happy with the other offers they are getting. If they aren't getting any other offers it gives them an opportunity to bite the bullet and move on with thier lives.
anon @ 2:23
i agree with you. Rather then make these ridiculous offers, buyers should pay 10% more than the list price to wash their sins of antagonizing sellers.
You can get away by paying the list price because you have correctly helped these sinners realize their mistake.
I agree with anon @ 10:20. While this is an interesting exercise, I really can't recommend anyone buy right now unless you are paying at least 20% under recent comps. I mean one to two months, not last summer.
As far as offers go...
Any offer is a good offer, lowball or not. If the seller isn't interested, they can part ways, no harm done.
This is business, pure and simple, nothing to get offended over. A seller who purchased 2 years ago might not be able to accept your 20% off offer, but his neighbor, who purchased 30 years ago, very well might.
Remember, it's only worth what a buyer will pay.
grim
East Brunswick, NJ 08816
MLS ID#: 619927
asking $569,900
4 Bed, 2.5 Bath
Built in 1974 approx 1/3 acre
Original owner. Tax record to $132K.
Houses recently sold in the same area for 512K. Last year similar houses were sold for 525-530K.
Things have changed too much. A smart buyer can offer 380-400K top.
Central Jersey Observer
MLS ID#: 619639 $639,900
5 Bed, 3.5 Bath
Built 1970.
Original owner.
The house is good, but can't afford the price. Don't know what the fair value should be.
But I can live with 350-375K.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060200227
West Caldwell
MLS ID#: 2277613
Asking 520k, down from 544k.
Would pay 425k, 450k tops.
Here is my selection:
ALPINE, NJ 07620
MLS ID#: 2625989
$3,100,000
5 Bed, 3.5 Bath
I kinda like this house, but of course I would have drive up to it.
If I was looking for a house, this is what I would do. I would drive up to this house, ring the door bell, ask if I could see the house if they didn't mind. Then, I would get out my buisness card, I would write my phone number and say get rid of your worthless lawyer and RE agent and I will cut you a deal for 1.7 cash money.
He may laugh at me, but hey, are not houses a dime a dozen these days? (at this rate, with this amount of inventory, they very may well be a dime a dozen).
Some my read this too and say SAS, nobody would take that...get serious...
But I say, have you ever thrown 1e6 cash money in someones face? They become a different person, and all of their common sense and their rational thinking goes out the door.
That my friends, is the TRUE power of cash.
SAS
Also, a little tip for lowballers and I tell this to all the young people whom always started working with me.
Always go for it, always give it a try, and don't be afraid. Because if you don't try your chances are already ZERO. But if you at least try, or put out a lowball offer, your chances are already 50% (because they can only say yes or no).
Tell ya what, 50% odds are better than 0% odds.
;)
SAS
SAS,
I don't think there is anything wrong with your technique..
It's the one used by the most successful residential RE investor I know. He will simply walk up to a house he is interested (most are not for sale), ring the bell, introduce himself and hand over a business card.
His best deals were pre-retirees, on the fence about selling their homes and moving away. Says just to plant the seed and walk away.
grim
SAS
Your advise is Gold.
I bought my house for 180K in cash when the owner was asking 245K.
But this was years ago...
The good old days!
Your tip is good but the young generation now a days is short on cash and big on fashions.
Didn' you see the GM sales was high because of the Mercedes sales.
Central Jersey Observer
to Annon 9:59:
I have seen this house on one of its open house days, about 2 months ago.. It was asking 999,000 then..
The house is not even big enough.. the owner/seller clearly doesn't have a clue..
I would not even give 650K, I think 500K is OK because its locale is just so mediocre..
Re: anon 10:20
(Belmar house)
So I went back and I did a little math.
If the seller were to get asking price their annual ROI would be be something like 40 percent.
At my price the AROI would be about 17 percent, not too shabby.
yup Central Jersey Observer,
Its harder to do these days, but I really do think someone on less than a 100,000 salary can really save, and when the bottom hits, will possibly be able to buy with cash outright, or put down one hell of a downpayment. But I do think younger people don't have the discipline because they are constantly bombarded by TV, ADs, Madison Ave, and MTV that tells them to live the Hollywood lifestyle. Its harder for them to stay focusesd. So, we have to cut them some slack.
So...to all you young people...turn off the TV, plan a budget, stick to it, and get the hell out of debt..or I will hunt you down....and thats the last thing you want.
:)
SAS
btw-young is under 35
ML#: 2611358
Town: Cresskill
Original Asking Price: $668,000
Current Asking Price: $599,000
Listing Agernt's description of the property:
JUST 5 YEARS YOUNG!! BEAUTIFUL BRIGHT & OPEN COLONIAL WITH LOFT FEEL. LG LR/PICT WIND OPENS TO DINING ROOM & KIT/NATURAL MAPLE CABINTRY AND CORIAN COUNTERTOPS, FAM RM/TREY CEILING & SGD TO LG PATIO. MBR/JACUZZI BATH, 2 ADD'L BR & MAIN BATH/JACUZZI. FEATURES 2ND FLOOR LNDRY, BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS, RECESSED LIGHTING. SET ON QUIET DEAD-END STREET, ONE BLOCK TO PLAYGROUND AND TOWN POOL.
Pros: New House in a good town, bright and sunny.
Cons: Very small family room (approx.10x 11), no formal dining room. No basement to compensate for lack of good size family room ( a must with two kids) needs landscapping overhaul.
The current owner bought it for $405k in 2001.Thank you Grim to get me to know how to get the tax records on the internet.
I would buy it for 475k
Any comments?
Cliffy
One comment I would make is that these ROI calculations appear to assume that there were no capital improvements between purchase and listing for sale. Being a financial dummy, it also seems strange to me that maintenance costs are not included either. Normally don't you net those things out, as cost that affects actual return? Or at least some costs (e.g., maybe not the lawn service but yes to replacing the gutters)? It seems to me that this is a point often made about IRAs and mutual funds--that you need to pay attention to account fees and fund managment costs as they can dramatically affect returns.
Cliffy,
Tell them 475, is current market value in your mind due to the glut of inventory and the bursting of the bubble, then say, but since we need about 25,000 landscape, you are going to take it off the top, offer 450, now get me the pens and lets sign this damn contract.
Tell them we don't care what they paid for it, you only care about what you are going to pay for it.
They will balk at you, but do you really care? Are not there a house for sale on every block in NJ?
;)
SAS
ML # 2287131
Chatham NJ
Townhome
2 bed, 1.5 bath 1953 sq feet.
1 Car Garage.
Maint about 180, Taxes about 5+K
Asking: 490K
I'd say 420-430K would be more acceptable, but I'm not familiar with sales in Chatham.
Anyone venture to guess?
SAS
I agree with you on the fair price issue, what they paid for should be irrelevant. The reason I indicated the purchase price back in 2001 was
1) To show Grim what a valuable service he is providing by letting us know how to access tax records
2) To show the prices back when there was no bubble or just the very early stages of the bubble
3) To show at 475k the seller would still make 70k in gross profits (less after commissions, etc.) not a bad deal as he has done zero improvements to the property since he/she bought it
Cliffy
Grim,
Good exercise.
Here is an interesting house.
428 Elbo Lane
Mount Laurel
NJ 08054
MLS ID#: 4784073. Listed begining of this month for $624,700. 4 Bed, 2.5 Bath 3,500 Sq. Ft. 3.42 Acres
This house was on the market many months maybe 4 to 6months listed with Weichert Realtors at $587,000, no buyers. Listing expired July end, and relisted with Century 21 begining of August as "new on market" for $624,700!
What gives? Before I saw the new price on MLS, I had called the agent from the sign post. I could not believe my ears when she told me her price. When I asked her whether this is the same house that was on the market last week for "around $580K", she claimed she did not know. Frankly I was apopletic. I was considering bidding $420 to $440 before it was pulled but now I am so riled by this barefaced attempt to decieve some unsuspecting fools out of their hard earned money, I'm not going to bid on this property. The market is cratering lets see who puts up the white flag first. Good luck to them finding the greater foooooools.
Observer formerly known as South Jersey Potential Buyer
BTW, I should mention that if you use Grim's tools to find the prior price that was paid for the house I listed above, it was $1 in 2003.
Yes that's right one buck. It is obviously the case that there is some special circumstance (prior owner bankruptcy, with debt assumption by new owner?) surrounding this property
Observer formerly known as South Jersey Potential Buyer
The Chester house is great, and even I would pick this up for between $475-500K, but no one would travel that far west to visit me!
Too far out for me as well.
Personally, I think we're going to see gas at $5-6 a gallon in a few years. Only makes sense, everyone else in the world pays that much.
grim
that's just wrong. if the place is that overpriced, i wouldn't even look at it or consider it.
back to shark week ...
8/05/2006 02:23:16 PM
You can provide a lowball on a property where there is a bidding war. You can provide a lowball where there are no other offers. I think the situation is analogous. The owner doesn't like it, they will decline.
Why should anyone be offended?
anon 7:36 and all,
"BTW, I should mention that if you use Grim's tools to find the prior price that was paid for the house I listed above, it was $1 in 2003. "
Does a $1 sale mean bankruptcy automatically? I thought sales between family members also get listed in teh $1, or $10, or $100 category?
grim said...
Personally, I think we're going to see gas at $5-6 a gallon in a few years.
grim
8/05/2006 08:10:48 PM
I disagree.
Think to that econ textbook from last night.
1. Long run demand curve
2. Look at Toyota Motor's Sales
3. Most energy analysts state that their is sufficent supply for $40-$50 oil, but speculators and investors are interfering with the market.
4. $5/gallon can happen, but it is not sustainable. It would more likely be the result of a Katrina-style spike.
5. Higher gas prices in other countries are due to taxation, not the fundamental cost of inputs.
6. I have no view in this area.
Grim,
More than half the price of gas in many European countries is due to Taxes. I don't see the political possibility of taxing gas that high in the U.S.
OTOH there is a lot of hidden subsidy to drive long distances here due to the large amounts of Federal monies devoted to Highways, hence this somehow aids the expanding suburb phenomenom
Anon 08:29:00 PM
I don't know. That was just one suggestion with a question mark. You are probably right that an inheritance or something else is an equal or better possibility
Observer formerly known as South Jersey Potential Buyer
There are plenty of reasons why the sales price would be recorded as a dollar. A transfers is the most likely reason.
grim
MANALAPAN, NJ 07726
MLS ID#: 10084819
$759,900
5 Bed, 3 Bath
3,200 Sq. Ft.
offer: $550k
Grim, thanks for the chance to plan my future!! I really believe that if I am patient I think this dream will come true!! Until I did this exercise, I did not realize there were so many houses on the market that met my expectations (except in price of course)...when we were more actively househunting maybe 1 and a half years ago, not so many choices...I love it!!
Last LP: $399,900 ML#: 2628184
Zip: 07666
twn: TEANECK
Last LP: $389,999 ML#: 2620468
Zip: 07666
twn: TEANECK
Last LP: $419,000 ML#: 2624733
Zip: 07666
Twn: TEANECK
This is my 2 cents. I used to live in this developement in Hazlet and the family who lives in this house is in financial difficulty. The $9,300 dollar a year property taxes are eating him alive. Personaly I think the propery taxes are way out of line with other local homes at this location.
MLS ID#: 10084599
In 1999 he paid 257K now he is asking 535K what a jerk. That is an annulized 11% return. I don't think so. I would offer 289K.
Gas comment was based on T Boone Pickens/Robert Frank (tax gas to reduce demand/reliance). No sense dicussing that here though.
grim
grim said...
There are plenty of reasons why the sales price would be recorded as a dollar. A transfers is the most likely reason.
grim
8/05/2006 08:37:50 PM
Transfer to a trust, gift, or use of other estate planning techniques.
Example.....Self-Cancelling Installment Notes (SCIN)[from Lincoln Financial]
An SCIN is an installment debt obligation that, by its terms, is extinguished at the death of the seller. It is similar to a private annuity in that an asset is sold to the child on an installment basis. However, with an SCIN, the installments are shorter than the seller's life expectancy and the child usually would pay a "risk premium" in the form of an above-market interest rate to the parent as consideration for the cancellation provision. Generally, nothing will be included in the seller's gross estate, but any deferred gain on the installment obligation will be reported on the seller's estate income tax return.
Missed that typo.. Damn..
Some of the comments strike me as incredibly naive.
If I'm looking to buy a house, the price I'm most interested in is the price I'm gonna be able to sell it for in the future.
What the seller is (or was)asking means nothing to me with respect to determining the price I am willing to pay.
What the seller paid for the house when he bought it, and his rate of return, be it "fair", absymal, or phenomenal, means nothing to me with respect to determining the price I am willing to pay.
Market value is a "right now" thing, loosely defined as what a willing buyer will pay and a willing seller will accept at arms length, neither party under any particular constraint. If you firmly believe the market is gonna do nothing but go down for the next year or so, and many around you are not so pessimistic, at least at this particular moment, then you can expect that you will be outbid on any house you have your eye on, at least for the time being.
The rate of listings went up and the rate of sales went down, so inventories have increased. And some realtors report that things are incredibly slow and "nothing's selling." But houses are selling in many markets, lots of them. Even if the sales rate is 50% of where it was last year, that is still a lot of houses.
But with the large inventory, if you are a seller right now looking to get top dollar, it's like a lottery, some houses are still selling for high prices, while other equally nice houses sit, its just the luck of the draw. A seller who sees the handwriting on the wall (i.e house prices likely to decline)would be smart to check recent comp sales, price a little ahead of the declining market (a little lower price)and get it sold. If it doesn't sell in a couple weeks, lower it a little more .... thereafter, rinse and repeat until sold.
But obviously a lot of the sellers out there are not lowering their prices to meet the market. They want last year's price like their neighbor, perhaps a little more. The reason their house is not selling is because they aren't willing to lower it to the point where some "fool" will buy it. If they won't lower it the point where some "fool" will buy it, how are you gonna talk them in to selling it to you for 50% to 65% of what they are asking for it? You're not!
And another thing your not going to do is "educate" these sellers by lowballing to them. You're wasting your time.
If you truly believe prices are gonna keep going down for quite a while, then you have plenty of time. But why not use it wisely: learn how to find the problem properties, the problem situations, and concentrate on them. Those are the only properties that are gonna meet your price criteria, at the moment.
wb
This probably belongs on the Friday economics rountable thread, but I'm here, and it's Saturday already, so here it is.
Atlantic City was dead last night and today. Nobody was playing the big money. No waits anywhere.
Scary. A couple of years ago, people waited for a turn at $1 slots on Friday night.
Today is the 5th. SS checks came in this during the past week or so. What does that tell you about the economy?
Pat
Grim,
I think you will see 4-5 dollars gas this year.
In years, we are talking $10/gal
Just my opinions based on global trends. Trends being the industrial boom in alot of countries besides us. I know I beat this horse to death (but I have been there several times to do transactions), but China cannot be overlooked in the oil markets. Shytown brought up a good point and I agree with him, it adds fuel to the fire. But when China is building cities overnight (literally), thats alot of damn crude.
I know people poo poo the China thing. But I tell you its real, its serious, and its a huge factor just starting to take effect in the markets.
I remember, going to China along time ago, it was like going back to Ho Chi Min trail in Vietnam, a third world dump. Not anymore.
Techologically, they beat us...hands down...
Their youth is hungrey. Hungrey to make money and be the next Bill Gates. USA kids...well....I guess there is always reality TV for them.
We haven't even touched OPEC. ;)
SAS
"i can't imagine going in and offering 200k below what they're asking."
Then you're not following the market very closely -- I've seen numerous houses sell for several hundred thousand below asking.
If those buyers had the mindset you describe, they would be much poorer today.
wb well said. i don't see how major lowballs are going to do any good in today's market. sellers aren't ready to accept them.
These sellers disagree..
MLS - Town - OLP/LP - Sales - % Lowball
2210660 Roxbury Twp. 199,000 94,000 52.8%
2101635 Newark City 699,900 350,000 50.0%
2091538 Elizabeth City 80,000 42,500 46.9%
2258143 Wayne Twp. 65,000 35,000 46.2%
2087412 Newark City 250,000 140,000 44.0%
2210326 Franklin Twp. 536,000 326,000 39.2%
2099475 Oxford Twp. 219,000 135,000 38.4%
2082989 Millburn Twp. 539,000 332,700 38.3%
2065205 Boonton Twp. 1,500,000 930,000 38.0%
2264965 Wanaque Boro 199,900 125,000 37.5%
2248565 Clifton City 299,000 190,000 36.5%
1700077 Hopatcong Boro 299,000 190,000 36.5%
2094705 Irvington Twp. 110,000 70,000 36.4%
2094705 Irvington Twp. 110,000 70,000 36.4%
2245054 Linden City 319,000 205,000 35.7%
2220651 Sussex Boro 155,000 100,000 35.5%
2201697 Hillside Twp. 289,999 190,000 34.5%
2101025 Hope Twp. 99,900 67,000 32.9%
2207199 Morristown Town 349,000 236,000 32.4%
2207199 Morristown Town 349,000 236,000 32.4%
2254058 Hillside Twp. 269,900 185,000 31.5%
2095322 Fairfield Twp. 479,900 335,000 30.2%
2239098 Morristown Town 179,000 125,000 30.2%
2028729 Linden City 320,000 223,500 30.2%
2226956 Mahwah Twp. 410,000 286,500 30.1%
2228760 Phillipsburg 150,000 105,000 30.0%
2225085 Washington Twp. 199,900 140,000 30.0%
2203766 Phillipsburg 29,900 21,000 29.8%
2263488 Paterson City 169,000 120,000 29.0%
2088712 Newark City 139,000 99,000 28.8%
2268476 Plainfield City 350,000 250,000 28.6%
2226156 Livingston Twp. 1,059,000 756,500 28.6%
2041025 Nutley Twp. 499,900 360,000 28.0%
1600411 Watchung Boro 1,990,990 1,440,000 27.7%
2109517 Randolph Twp. 549,000 400,000 27.1%
2085529 North Caldwell 2,740,000 2,000,000 27.0%
2052707 Irvington Twp. 225,000 164,500 26.9%
2268409 Madison Boro 509,000 375,000 26.3%
2105351 Hardyston Twp. 250,000 185,000 26.0%
2222842 Vernon Twp. 224,900 168,000 25.3%
2227865 Newark City 398,000 298,000 25.1%
2112093 Pohatcong Twp. 99,999 75,000 25.0%
2262368 Denville Twp. 459,900 345,000 25.0%
2259117 Belleville Twp. 299,900 225,000 25.0%
2259114 Newark City 298,198 225,000 24.5%
2107679 Chatham Twp. 1,325,000 1,000,000 24.5%
2204072 City Of Orange 215,000 162,500 24.4%
2268442 Pompton Lakes 264,000 200,000 24.2%
1697901 Union Twp. 250,000 190,000 24.0%
2042574 Newark City 169,000 129,000 23.7%
2252876 City Of Orange 275,000 210,000 23.6%
2109439 Franklin Twp. 850,000 650,000 23.5%
2265508 Jefferson Twp. 169,900 130,000 23.5%
2224071 Jefferson Twp. 37,900 29,000 23.5%
2206145 Franklin Street 1,300,000 999,900 23.1%
2096978 North Arlington 390,000 300,000 23.1%
2108247 East Orange City 175,000 135,000 22.9%
2252043 Jefferson Twp. 299,000 232,500 22.2%
2212939 Newark City 315,000 245,000 22.2%
2218107 Little Falls Twp. 396,900 310,000 21.9%
2258003 Newark City 179,000 140,000 21.8%
2224407 East Amwell Twp. 345,000 270,000 21.7%
2102176 Franklin Lakes 1,499,000 1,175,000 21.6%
2218553 Wayne Twp. 395,000 310,000 21.5%
2089837 Clifton City 285,750 225,000 21.3%
2094182 Franklin Twp. 1,299,000 1,025,000 21.1%
2257947 Bloomingdale 379,000 300,000 20.8%
2083944 Mount Arlington 1,200,000 950,000 20.8%
2232084 West Orange Twp. 369,900 293,000 20.8%
2222382 Washington Boro 119,900 95,000 20.8%
2106160 East Orange City 119,900 95,000 20.8%
2106160 East Orange City 119,900 95,000 20.8%
2095090 Washington Twp. 385,000 306,000 20.5%
2255209 Raritan Boro 257,900 205,000 20.5%
2213151 Essex Fells Twp. 1,499,000 1,195,000 20.3%
2222387 Bloomingdale 450,000 360,000 20.0%
1687244 Kinnelon Boro 2,500,000 2,000,000 20.0%
List consists of lowball sales from January 1st, 2006 until July 22, 2006. Lowball % > 20% (Based on OLP). These are GSMLS listed sales, they don't include NJMLS, MLSGuide, or the discounts/FSBO.
Sorry about the length, but I thought it was appropriate..
grim
Richard and wb,
yes, I agree. Now is not the time for lowball offers, unless you got the cash to wave in their face and seduce them like the snake charmer seduces the snakes in the baskets. ;)
But, in my opiion, its still a sellers market, you take 10% off, who cares?? its still a sellers market, take another 10% ouch that hurt a little, but its still a sellers market.
I think come Fall 07, things will have begun to unravel and at that time we will see the 30-40% drops from today and any seller will take it because he is so upsidedown he is dizzy and seeing red.
SAS
MAPLEWOOD TWP., NJ 07040
MLS ID#: 2269506
New construction condos in Maplewood off Springfield Avenue. $340 top for two bedroom. Okay neighborhood but new construction and like the new york direct.
Grim. Give me some feedback.
That list was based on the data I had from doing "Lowball!". Came across some older spreadsheets, I think these are from the November/December timeframe..
MLS - Town - OLP/LP - SP - % Lowball
2087630 Bound Brook 389,900 185,000 52.55%
2079066 Vernon Twp. 169,900 120,000 41.58%
2209366 Branchburg Twp. 34,000 21,000 38.24%
2209366 Branchburg Twp. 34,000 21,000 38.24%
2092108 Irvington Twp. 125,000 80,000 36.00%
2067827 Mount Olive Twp. 414,900 295,000 28.90%
2104202 Elmwood Park 460,000 328,000 28.70%
2051303 Newark City 149,500 110,000 26.42%
2075472 Roxbury Twp. 209,000 155,000 25.84%
2089089 Madison Boro 2,890,000 2,300,000 25.65%
2090124 Springfield Twp. 669,000 500,000 25.26%
2088167 Frelinghuysen 562,000 450,000 24.89%
2106530 Paterson City 139,000 105,000 24.46%
2089581 Hopatcong Boro 205,000 165,000 24.24%
1677437 Pequannock 1,500,000 1,150,000 23.33%
2109287 Rahway City 362,900 279,900 22.87%
2096901 Hawthorne Boro 429,900 350,000 22.83%
2093225 Linden City 459,900 375,000 22.64%
2064287 Morristown 419,500 325,000 22.53%
2104393 Chester Twp. 1,090,000 845,360 22.44%
2096239 West Milford 189,000 150,000 20.63%
2074980 Montague Twp. 119,000 95,000 20.17%
then the followup question would be at fall06, do you go 50-60% ?
Mmm..thats seems like that would never happen, but alot can happen from now and then.
We all know even steel bends at a one degree change in temperature.
Where the botton is...hard to say....but we are on our way to find out. If one is a seller, they need to accept some economical medicine.
Just my opinions...sometimes the headhunters on these blogs come out of the woodwork.
SAS
I meant Fall 07.
I am on the mac G5 tonight. It handles this blog site different from the dell pc. The mac doesn't like tp preview, it just wants to post
sorry.
SAS
I went to this open house in the North Flushing, NY area today of a house that’s been on the market for about 6 months. The original asking price was $900,000.
I did some research on the house and found out that the flipper bought the house in November 2005 for $550,000. That’s $550,000 about 9 months ago.
The flipper supposedly remodeled the house but in my opinion the work was really poor and the house would have to be gutted and totally redone. The flipper is now listing the house for 799,999.
This flipper has some set of balls expecting to make a $250,000 profit on a house that they have owned for less then a year, in horrible shape.
The good thing is that the house has been on the market for more then 6 months and the flipper has an adjustable rate mortgage, so hopefully they will get there balls handed to them when they cant sell and the ARM adjusts.
Can’t wait for this housing market bubble to really burst and hard working people can once again afford a house without going on food stamps.
Wow, impressive list!
I wonder whether these sales represent really good buys (at the time) or incredibly high asking prices.
wb
I think wb is missing the point of the exercise. I'm not dropping in to the Belmar house making the lowball offer I suggested, I agree with him that most sellers aren't ready for that.
The point of this is to get a sample of what the readers of this blog would be willing to pay for specific homes. It's certainly not scientific, but it is definitely worth something. If a realtor or seller is smart enough to read this site, I think he's smart enough to understand what this is about.
Alot of chaff, a few 'deals'.
grim
Grim-
You go boy with them facts!! Where is wb now? Any counter facts re: low ball offers for "problem" properties only!!
Maybe these 2 were problems, who knows..I mean 53% is a lot of money to lose, no wb? But consistent 20% and above is amazing...I love it!!
2087630 Bound Brook 389,900 185,000 52.55%
2079066 Vernon Twp. 169,900 120,000 41.58%
Still here. And as I said, impressive list.
By the way, how many of those houses on that list were where you want to be? If any, why didn't you buy it? maybe some were ridiculously priced, maybe the rest are those problem situations I suggest you target.
Certainly that list proves exactly what it shows,i.e., those particular properties sold for a lot less than their asking prices. But I still believe generalized lowballing is a waste of time.
If you made a list of every person who won big on the lottery, that would be a fairly impressive list also. But wouldn't make me change my mind that buying a lottery ticket is the waste of buck. Every person on that lottery list won big, but you never will. I can (almost) guarantee it.
wb
Maplewood schools have some issues, as I believe they share some schools with South Orange.
Check here:
http://education.state.nj.us/rc/rc05/menu/01.html
Start at Essex county and work your way down.
(just peeked)
Actually the school district is listed as "SOUTH ORANGE-MAPLEWOOD."
So factor that into your analysis.
WB, you're not an optimist, eh?
The simple reality is that today's prices don't make sense.
Say a buyer makes $100K annually, which in most areas of the country is considered well off (probably in the top 5% of incomes nationwide).
Now Run PITI against that seemingly good salary, using a few scanarios, where most banks will max you out at 39%, with perfect credit:
Price: $700,000
Down: $140,000
Loan: $560,000
Taxes: $1,000
Ins: $100
Mortgage: $3,540
PITI: $4,640
PITI %: 55.7
Price: $600,000
Down: $120,000
Loan: $480,000
Taxes: $917
Ins: $92
Mortgage: $3,034
PITI: $4,042
PITI %: 48.5
Price: $500,000
Down: $100,000
Loan: $400,000
Taxes: $833
Ins: $83
Mortgage: $2,528
PITI: $3,445
PITI %: 41.3
Price: $400,000
Down: $80,000
Loan: $320,000
Taxes: $667
Ins: $67
Mortgage: $2,023
PITI: $2,756
PITI %: 33.1
Price: $300,000
Down: $60,000
Loan: $240,000
Taxes: $500
Ins: $50
Mortgage: $1,517
PITI: $2,067
PITI %: 24.8
(Assumes 20% down and 30-year fixed @ 6.5%)
So that leaves this buyer shopping in the $450K range. Know where you can get a decent house for that price? In the Pocono mountains, complete with a 2-hour commute each way.
So you've got top earners who can't live anywhere near top real estate.
Something had to give, and thankfully the mania has ended, and people can hope fairly priced homes will appear once again.
wb-
There may be more "problem-properties" than you or I can ever imagine coming down the pipeline. Keep your eyes open!
I chose not to buy (even tho' Essex Fells, Chatham, etc (both on the list), is where I will eventually buy) b/c the market has not hit bottom. When it does, you will see me right there with pen in hand.
Unfortunately your comparison w/the lottery is just oh, so wrong! Your chances really don't go up by much every time you buy a ticket. In real estate, even D. Lereah is (pardon the phrase) shittin' in his pants. Why all of a sudden the dozen or so appearances in mass media? If he has nothing to worry about as you suggest, then why waste his time? I mean he and his Realtor cronies can keep selling "non-problem" properties to the infinite # of millionaires who are produced in this country every year. All of the rest of poor folks can buy these "problem-properties" and everyone's problems are solved.
Btw, you never answered my original question...do you have any data to support your "problem" theory?
In support of BG,I think a seller who accepts a 25% low-ball offer has some "problem." It may be the original asking price was way out of line even by greedy grubber standards. Maybe they got in over their heads and are one step ahead of the bank. Maybe they need to get out of Dodge...but for whatever reason they decided to go with the lowball offer in hand. I don't think the market signals are telling sellers a 25% price adjustment is necessary to make a sale; more like 10-15%.
anon @ 6:53
i don't think the prices listed here are indicative of the present state of economy. The cost of a slowing economy is factored into the price as most see a rough patch coming up in a year or so. I see oil, ARM loans, unemployment being some of the reasons for the rough patch.
To me the prices listed here are a confirmation that I’m not alone in my quest for affordable housing. As of now I don’t care if a seller is ready to sell for 25% less. The belief is that they eventually will.
wow! That's an incredible list. It looks like the bubble is finally bursting.
Please refrain from any more lowball comments in this topic. I'm in the process of creating a new topic for that discussion.
Thanks,
jb
I think WB is an opinionated realtor or someone who bought an overpriced property and someone who has no idea what he is talking about. If you are looking to buy a house be warry of what he has to say.
[If you made a list of every person who won big on the lottery, that would be a fairly impressive list also. But wouldn't make me change my mind that buying a lottery ticket is the waste of buck. Every person on that lottery list won big, but you never will. I can (almost) guarantee it.]
I hear the list of people who were proven wrong is pretty long too.....
WB,
Are you who I think you are?
JB
Anon 9:12
1. I am not a realtor.
2. I have owned my house for many years. (I live in a modest home, and prices never went up so high in my area during the recent boom that it would persuade me to sell.)
3. In the past, I have felt the weight of being saddled with real estate that I couldn't sell for what I had in. Believe me, i would be the last person to suggest that someone pay too much for a property under a theory that all will be well soon. Decide for yourself.
4. As a matter of fact, you don't know where I think home values will be two years from now (higher, lower, flat) relative to today, because I have not expressed my opinion on that. If you think I am implying that prices will NOT be going down bigtime over time, from where are you drawing that inference? Truth is, I don't know and I don't profess to know.
What I am saying, or at least attempting to say, is:
1. If you believe that prices will be going down bigtime for many moons to come, and therefore are willing to pay only 50% to 65% of current asking prices, it is unlikely you are going to get a house right now, because you'll be consistently and repeatedly beat out by people not so pessimistic.
2. Rather than wasting your time, either by lowballing to deaf ears, or waiting until the magic bottom of the market day comes, to instead in effect, "go fishing where the fish are."
Do I know what I'm talking about? Maybe yes, maybe no. Not really talking very deep at all.
Beware of the man who tells you not to listen to what the next guy has to say. Listen, and then if approrpriate, discard.
wb
No Grim, you wouldn't know me.
I have been reading this Blog since last November and have posted a couple of times as WillyBoy.
wb
Here is the biggest factor that will put pressure on home prices.-INFLATION. We are faced with a slowing economy and inflation that keeps crawling up. I must say the fed is in a deep hole right now.
Many people on wall street will not admit to this but this is a fact!
I think the fed will have to raise rates at least two more times this year. Maybe they will pause this Tuesday. However, in September they will need to raise an additional .25 points.
Looking forward the next two-five months , home prices in the $500-$600k will decline anywhere between 10%-18%. Futrthermore, if geopolitical tension mounts in the next 60 days and OIL runs close to $100 per barral then look out. Home price can be in for a 30%-40% decline in 2007.
What do other people feel about the economy?
MP
we plan on getting into the NJ market to buy in the next few months (i know, i know, we should wait) and i can't imagine going in and offering 200k below what they're asking.
that's just wrong. if the place is that overpriced, i wouldn't even look at it or consider it.
back to shark week ...
8/05/2006 02:23:16 PM
sO WHY THE HECK ARE YOU LOOKING?
Back to another Fool buyer.
prices in the $500-$600k will decline anywhere between 10%-18%.
No, correct range is between 11%-20.46%.
Seriously, nobody knows how things turns out and predictions like this are just ridiculous.
grim said...
WB,
Are you who I think you are?
JB
8/06/2006 10:52:23 AM
"....ya' gotta keep 'um separated...."
Townhomes in Westgate and Edison - Middlesex prices at inflated rates of 370-400K.
Will pay not a penny more that 300K.
Ridiculously priced.
KBR
njresident286
re: 2302298 / 107 Pomeroy Rd Madison, OH today
Totally agree! Also saw the house today and they are crazy to ask 1.4m - agent told me the house next door a 3bd sold for 1.3m recently (6 mos ago maybe) so maybe that's where they got their price. We were thinking 700-800 maybe for someone else (not us!), since it seems like a prestigious address.
It is funny that I passed by that house today. Agree with Resident286's comment on new house on 310 greenwood ave in Florham Park.
I orginally planned to enter, but did not because of that gas station next door. It is my price range but no way for gas station, I would not pay 500k even if I even own the gas station too. What were they thinking?
Comment on gas station neighbors:
When they are good, they are great.
If the owner is local, works on site and IF they close at 9 and open at 6, wonderful. Station owners can be especially protective and respectful of the residential neighbors around them [who help keep an eye on their business for them at night AND usually buy their gas.] Plus, you get some extra feedback on car repairs.
As for the 24-hour places, staffed only by employees, absolutely no.
I grew up with a corner gas station next door. I learned how to rebuild a carburetor at 13. The only semi-bad thing was the view from the windows on that side, and as kids, we loved watching the cars go in and out. We planted a hedge down the property, it grew to 6 feet, and everything was fine.
Much better than a bar within one block. Usually you won't find the gas station customers drunk on your lawn in the morning.
Pat
I'd pay 725k for this one in Downtown Jersey City.
MLS ID#: 60004779
They are asking 995k I live around the corner, it has been on the market now for 3-4 months. 6 years ago they would have been lucky to get 550k, then again 6 years ago I am not sure I would want to live there, it still isn't the greatest neighborhood but many of the homes are nice and the immediate area is good. It is 4 stories, 3000 sqft, an 1860's brick row house redone on the outside, needs some work inside but probably worth $700,000.
I think speculation is a real problem in Jersey City, which is a shame as I am really looking to buy.
I was looking at places in Hillsborough on GSMLS and there are quite a few nice properties there that are on a good pieces of land. However as everywhere in NJ they are overpriced and taxed out the Wazoo. When looking at the assesed prices of homes there, the assessed price seems like a fair price to pay for those homes. I mean I have looked in other parts of NJ like Morris county and some of the list prices are not much over the assessed price. So I think people need to start bidding assessed price and say final offer after inspection. The more people who do this, the better the chance of prices comming down to a realistic price. I read on NJ.com that property taxes are set to raise again, I think there will be many people moving out when this happens and asking assessed prices, and making it a final offer, will help this bubble crash.
grim said...
Personally, I think we're going to see gas at $5-6 a gallon in a few years.
grim
8/05/2006 08:10:48 PM
I disagree.
Think to that econ textbook from last night.
1. Long run demand curve
2. Look at Toyota Motor's Sales
3. Most energy analysts state that their is sufficent supply for $40-$50 oil, but speculators and investors are interfering with the market.
4. $5/gallon can happen, but it is not sustainable. It would more likely be the result of a Katrina-style spike.
5. Higher gas prices in other countries are due to taxation, not the fundamental cost of inputs.
6. I have no view in this area.
8/05/2006 08:30:49 PM
----------------------------------
Well I guess this person has to bite there tounge now. Leave it to good ol BP to find corrosion in there pipeline. Check out CNN.com I dont think it will cauase gas to go to five dollars but I am thinking it will go more towards 4.00/gallon.
One thing that still boggles my mind is what the heck do these people do that they drive there tahoe's, trailblazers, escalade etc still like gas in .99 cents? My SUV gets 19 miles to the gallon and I drive conservitally. Man I miss the days where they got barrals of gas for 12.00 (and that was 1999).
As far as the hosing market, it will crash hard as long as people are putting in 50-60% lowball offers. I am sick of these ridculous sellers that say I want 1 Million for my house and after a year it doesnt sell and they say I am not lowering my price thats absurd. Those are the Jidiots that end up in forclouser. KEEP LOWBALLING sellers will get the point.
"Well I guess this person has to bite their tounge now."
No I don't!?!
This issue is being improperly reported. It's not good, but it isn't a death knell either.
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