Weekend Open Discussion
Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
63 Comments:
Open houses lining up again for this week. One house on its 8th open house.
Not going to attend any, of course.
Should be a nice beach weekend.
Ground Rules
I'm going to keep it short and to the point.
Personal attacks, inflammatory comments, and off-topic arguments will not be tolerated. Take these discussions off-line.
Foul language, racist, sexist, or any other defamatory remarks will not be tolerated.
Messages that violate these rules will be deleted.
The housing bubble is an emotionally charged topic, and I understand that our discussions get heated at times. We don't need to add any more fuel to this fire.
Please help me to keep our discussions on topic and professional.
Scenario:
I'm looking to buy a house in North Jersey (in a town with good schools)this Sep or October and the house is priced at 469. This price is competitive with several other houses in the area. Given the current market conditions what would be a reasonable offer? I'm sure there are a lot of factors I haven't included.
Question: is it possible to find a decent 2br in Hoboken for <$1800?
Returning to NJ
A big "thank you" to all the readers and contributors.
Thanks for taking your time to visit and read the blog, even more thanks to those who take the time to contribute.
Let's keep in mind the mission of the blog, to inform and to educate.
We want to get the information out, correct the misinformation that exists, educate someone that might not know, and perhaps learn a little ourselves.
Thanks again,
jb
"This price is competitive with several other houses in the area."
Based on what, 5 years of 15-20% annual appreciation? Do you have to buy at market peak? GSMLS.com has many houses for rent, if you need the space an apartment doesn't provide.
Market aside, if new to the area, it also makes sense to rent in a town before buying there.
Anonymous said...
Question: is it possible to find a decent 2br in Hoboken for <$1800?
Returning to NJ
8/11/2006 01:45:06 PM
use this....
http://tinyurl.com/gk98e
the dead tree version is distributed free all over town and is used by everyone
UnRealtor said...
"Market aside, if new to the area, it also makes sense to rent in a town before buying there."
I second that! Renting will let you really get to know an area and decide where you want to put down roots. What you think you know about a place could be very different once you actually live there for a few months.
The current market conditions only make it even more sensible to rent.
Number of SFHs had gone down by end of last month my a small number. This week the number has gone up suddenly.
Looks like many houses are re-listing with different MLS number.
At this point many sellers have adjusted asking prices to that of early 2005 (5% off 2006 pick).
Sales are very slow and lots of open houses coming up to catch the last minute buyers before the school starting in september.
Please attend few Open houses, get the feel of the market. if you are a buyer then do your home work before you make any lowball offers.
Central Jersey Observer
Grim, you might want to attach that disclaimer warning to the "As always, anything goes" statement. Perhaps some folks are reading into it too liberally. Otherwise, thanks for the great blog!
Have a miserable weekend starving realtors and grubbing missed the peak sellers.
Does it count if you rent the house you live in but may own a home somewhere?
Just my opinion... but i really disagree with the idea that there is either a stalled market or a standoff between buyers and sellers... doesn't anyone remember out of 7.08 million sales in 2005, 3.34 million homes were purchased for investment purposes only? that's an amazingly large percentage... and it most certainly gives credence to idea that that demand last year was artifical! So, even if all of the bubble-sitters did go out and buy the market would still go down... why? because there aren't enough of them!!!... the investors/speculators accounted for more than 40% of all sales!!!
2:18
Yes, inventory is up. More sellers than buyers.
But until all the casual fisherman take their houses off the market (no bites in 6 months, maybe), how do we even know the true inventory number?
Without a true inventory number, we cannot know the actual ratio of buyers to sellers, right?
Maybe some sellers are holding out for the inevitable reduction in inventory.
Just a thought on the other side.
Pat
man=men for that Old Stickler Grammar Teacher on here. You remind me of my 11th grade English teacher. The one who is the reason I went to college.
Pat
XXXOOO
fresh anecdote:
just walked over to the Red Bank Starbucks
An older gentleman discussing real estate with a boomer couple, and more than a few people not so subtley eavesdropping.
Boomers: It seems like it is a flat market.
Gentleman: Flat is being generous. I've been in this business a long time. Nothing is going anywhere for 24-36 months. There's no reason that you shouldn't rent for a year and see how this situation works itself out.
I don't believe there's such a huge amount of bubble sitters like some people believe. I only know of one besides me (my brother). Everyone else I come in contact with has a nice house, a huge mortage which was refinanced three or four times, an SUV or minivan and pricey vacations taken at least once a year, while I am shaking my head wondering how they are paying for it. These are basically blue-collar people (plumbers, electricians) with wives who work part-time with one or two kids. Everyone seems to think we're nuts because we haven't bought yet, even though all these people bought before 2000 and paying less than $200K. But I can just imagine what they owe on their houses now with all the refinancing!!! RML
An interesting piece by Brookings
From Traditional to
Reformed:
A Review of the Land Use
Regulations in the Nation’s
50 largest Metropolitan Areas
Go to the map on page 12, you wanna know why land is scarce in NJ?
http://www.brookings.edu/metro/pubs/20060802_Pendall.pdf
Anyone going to see Counting Crows at PNC on Saturday?
jb
Not so much to do with the housing bubble, but saving up money: I read an article on bankrate.com today that said some smaller local banks around the country are now paying 6% on a cd. Has anyone seen any local banks in New Jersey offering that?
RML,
I feel the same. We bought a small cape in '97. We are doing well finacially and have a lot of money saved. We really want a nicer home but have been waiting because the prices were so out of line. It is hard to be patient when it seems everyone around you bought their deam home already but we are trying...
j
Good read
The New York Times
by Edmund Andrews:
"Economy Often Defies Soft Landing"
sorry - don't know how to shorten link - it is in NYT Business
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/business/11econ.html
Please tell me how much do I have to offer for this townhouse. Thanks!
$445000 LEASE TO OWN - NEW 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath townhouse w/ attached garage
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/192813454.html
Made a call to an old "old" friend today.Man is very wise. He has been investing in real estate since the 1950's.(60 years)
We spoke about the normal everyday stuff. So I threw some bait out....ya know about the housing bubble....
The response was not shocking to me....but here is what he said.
"The residential housing market is the most overpriced I have seen in my life."
Asked him what he would do if he was a youngster and was looking to invest or buy a home now. He said "Do not even consider it" "rent or wait". No surprise to me either but...... 60 years of experience a fortune to back up that impressive record and one to take seriously.
He emphasized single family "residential" housing market when he talked about extreme overvaluation.
Felt like passing this along to my BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA friends.
BABABABABABA
BUST!
Bob
Ohh regarding the Old "Old" friend. A long-term real estate "bull". mainly focuses in the NYC & NJ area.
He sold some of his holdings off last year. Last time he sold some real estate was in late 1980's. great timing eehh. He moves like molasses with his investments.Very slow to make changes.
"The residential housing market is the most overpriced I have seen in my life."
Listen up!
babababa
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
back at the Bob
babababa
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
patienthomebuyer & njgal -- I am with you. I am a newlywed who has been living with the in-laws since my wedding 3 months ago. The people who typically say "you still haven't found a house yet?" are the ones who have no clue on the state of the RE market. When we explain the over valuation and how today they probably couldn't afford the type of house they bought 5 or 6 years ago they pretty much shut up.
We are 30 years old, have more than a 20% downpayment saved so we are waiting it out a little more so we don't see our life savings go down the drain.
Good luck to everyone...
~First Time Buyer~
First Time Buyer at 3:33 - You have the right idea. Good friends of mine got married in '97 and lived with her parents afterwards to save for a house. Four years and two kids later, they bought a house in '01 - a beautiful house in Fairfield. They paid $420K and, at the time, felt like they were getting ripped off. Five years later their living room still does not have furniture and their family room has a couch that's about 15 years old. They only have one credit card with a $2K limit and if they don't have the cash, they don't buy it. They tell me all the time I'm better off renting and that they'd never be able to afford a house in these conditions. They are my only normal friends. Everyone else I know spends money like it's water on things that I KNOW they can't possibly be able to afford without credit.
Chicago: You sound like you're really obsessed with that fat-faced guy's wife. Maybe you should call her up and ask her out. Would be a nice night for a walk.
;)
Pat
I'm confused about what kind of situation many of you are in. I'm single with no kids and purchasing a new townhouse for 350k. After taxes, maint, car payment, credit card bills, cabletv, grocery, gas, etc I'm still left with a savings of over 1000$/month to put into my piggy bank. Why do you think people are in over their heads? If I'm single and can afford a house in this market, why can't people with 2 incomes etc?? Very odd.
When we couldn't afford to buy during the 1980's bubble, everyone thought we was crazy. I saw a friend lose money on a sale after the crash, and was glad I hadn't bought. We saved some money and finally in 1996, just before the market run-up, we bought a 4 BR, 2 BA cape on a dead-end street, in which NOTHING had been updated AT ALL since 1975. But the rooms were big and the bones were good. And we have been little by little updating it ever since. The day we moved in, a friend's mother said "You are going to be working on this house till the day you die."
But since we have no kids and don't want to move, so what?
We waited till we had CASH to pay for new siding/roof/windows, we refinanced 3x down to a 4.75/15 year, and now even with the price drop, we are sitting pretty. If we had to sell, we could lowball.
My advice to you bubble-sitters: Keep sitting. I know how awful it is when you want a house and prices are out of sight. I've been there. But I do believe that while Bergen is not going to crash (due to the fact that it's mostly built up and starter housing is harder to find), I think prices will drop significantly.
And if mortgage rates go up, well, eventually they will fall too. You can always refinance a mortgage to lower the rate. You can't refinance your initial cost.
Don't take on more than you can afford. We have been able to weather FIVE periods of single-income because we didn't overextend ourselves.
I am a recent home buyer. I purchased a house as to what I thought it was worth (150K less than asking). I bought becasue my husband and I have been living with his parents for 1+ years. We tried to wait longer but we both needed to move and we feel this is the house we will retire in its in Bergen County. I am sure every person knows how hard it is to move back when you have been out of your parens home for almost 10 years.
man my spelling is awful.. Grim can you install spell check because and parents
Pragmatist:
Bergen County is not anything special.
Just as it did last time it will drop just as much as any place else.
Don
Oh, by the way, just as an FYI to you young folks -- we closed on our house on my 41st birthday. So I waited a LONG time for a house. I agree with those who say the market is ridiculously overvalued. That my house is "worth" well over $400K is absolutely insane.
You guys who are sitting tight will have the last laugh on your friends -- I promise you. When they have to sell in a depressed market, or get foreclosed and have nothing but the Hummer and the BMW and the photo album from the Mediterranein cruise, you will have earned the right to feel some Schädenfreude.
We've got our share of celebrities here. The goofy guy and hot chick were also in this Bankrate piece.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/celkupafamily.asp
jb
Chicago: You sound like you're really obsessed with that fat-faced guy's wife. Maybe you should call her up and ask her out. Would be a nice night for a walk.
;)
Pat
8/11/2006 03:57:22 PM
You have to see her now...regular Mrs. Chicago with a big basketball in her shirt.
Anon 4:01:
Kids are expensive...really expensive. That's a big part of it. If both parents work, easily deduct $1,300/month to pay for care and basic costs of raising a child (this doesn't include the fun stuff, like if your child needs special care or non-covered health/therapy..tack on another grand a month for that. Just imagine spending $2,300 a month. I'm not making that up, it's what my husband and I spend on our little one).
If you were a single parent, you'd have zero/neg. savings based on the numbers you just gave. Now imagine all the single parents out there.
Plus, it sounds as if you make more than median income.
Median in many parts of NNJ is around (guessing) $75,221.57.
Take home on that, after FICA, SUI, 401(k) deferral, health care average employee contribution, etc., would be $4500/month.
Assuming 20% down, 30 yr. fixed, your townhome payment is $1900 BEFORE your tax escrow (which probably just went up $1,000 this year.)
I'm not saying you were ill-advised to purchase, but over time half of earnings is too much to spend on home/home maintenance/taxes.
Too much can happen..job loss, illness, terrorists, etc.
Pat
Chicago, maybe I was wrong. No walk.
A great alternate ..you can just quietly sit in front of the Mets. Bring her a water ice, put her feet up, and call it even.
Pat
"007 said...
My neighbour "disappeared" over the weekend (1 week) while I was in vacation. I think he might be "foreclosure". Is it possible to check it out?"
I think you can go to realty track and put in the town by name or zip code. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe 1 month free registry? Any way the free aspect will give you road names.
Amen njgal! We are right there with you.
The math tells us we can afford a $500K home with 20% down, 30 year fixed. But we can't bring ourselves to buy a home for a half a million dollars that some bought 3 or 4 years ago in the 200-300 range. We just can't......
~First Time Buyer~
chicago-
Congrats on the bun (in the oven). She sure is a pretty girl, and lucky for her she has a guy who can run the numbers!! The toll deal sounds great too!
So why not buy a house someone paid $600K for 3 or 4 years ago that is now $500K? (not being sarcastic, just curious)
8/11/2006 04:31:43 PM
Show me the house and sign me up for it. Haven't come across that in the area we are looking in.
Do the other young childless couples here just assume they will always have two incomes?
We have two incomes now but there is always the possibility that my wife will want to stay home to care for our child when we have one. Buying a house would lock us into a two-income lifestyle. I just can't see paying down a 500K+ mortgage, taxes, maintenance, etc on my income alone.
NJGal, I did like Babs Corcoran's comment on the show that the host liked owning a home because he is rich. It got a good laugh out of the production crew, who are almost guaranteed to be the opposite of rich.
Any chance of getting the lowballs back? Maybe just a few for each county? I'm very curious about whats going on. Thanks.
The Bubble Sitters
Some of Hunterdon Counties July Sold Listings:
High Bridge
MLS2294177 3BR,1Bath 309.9K Sold= 300K DOM 4
MLS2276464 3BR, 1Bath 289.9K Sold=284.9K DOM 26
Lebanon Boro
MLS2267975 3BR, @.5 Bath Condo 359.9K Sold=350K DOM 25
MLS2255423 2BR, 2 Bath Condo 329.9K Sold =322.5K DOM 31
MLS2260794 2BR, 1.5 Bath Condo 299.9K Sold=291.5K DOM 58
Town of Clinton
MLS223921 3BR, 1.5 Bath 549K Sold=540K DOM 5
MLS2252835 3BR, 2,5 Bath Townhouse 405K Sold= 395K DOM 72
Bethlehem Twp.
MLS 2272196 3BR, 3 Bath 599.9 Sold=605K DOM 61
MLS 2274800 4BR, 2.5 Bath 569.9K Sold=565.5 DOM 12
Clinton Twp.
MLS 22119109 5BR, 2.5Bath 1.199M Sold= 1.125M DOM 87
MLS 2226964 4BR, 3.5 Bath 1.1 M Sold=1.075M DOM79
You posted an identical list in the prior thread. Please don't spam with duplicate information, it's not necessary.
Everyone that reads this thread would have read the last thread.
grim
Chicago, maybe I was wrong. No walk.
A great alternate ..you can just quietly sit in front of the Mets. Bring her a water ice, put her feet up, and call it even.
Pat
Pat: You forgot foot massage, spoonfuls of Breyer's Choc as needed. :)
chicago-
The toll deal sounds great too!
The Toll deal was in fact not good enough. The deal was offered in April 2005 which was a 7.5% discount off of the THEN market price in Toll's opinion. We declined.
It appeared to be an unfortunate decision for a period of a few months, but now everything is falling apart around here. We almost feel as if we are in the eye of the hurricane.
chicago-
well, as we have all said around here before, renting does afford the chance that you can get out of hurricane. Had you bought and then the building started falling apart...well there goes all of your hard earned cash.
Sorry about thr repeated info.
Didn't see it at first on the other thread.
Didn't mean to clog things up, just provide info on an area not usually covered by your usual MLS listings.
No problem, are you in RE? If so, please drop me an email.
Thanks,
jb
No I'm not, but a local realtor sends me his newsletter with recent Under Contract's and Sold listings. I sold last September but still like keeping an eye on what's been happening there.
Re: The Bubble Sitters -- OMG, I used to work with Jordan Celkupa. And he's married to the sister of a friend of mine who I haven't seen since she moved out of the area.
Small world....
Congrats CF,
Welcome to the club. ;)
Chi,
I just hope that when you're making the media rounds, appearing on Anderso Cooper, Keith Olbermann, Jon Stewart and the like that you will remember the little people that got you there.
I am glad to say I knew you when!
Please, though, promise me you won't give those ass-clowns O'Reilly, Hannity or Colmes a minute of your time.
I consider myself a-political. However, I was made aware of this footage, since the gato-hombre mentioned the prime time personalities.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf8oOU0wk7k&NR
would appreciate everyone's input on upper montclair. currently live on the upper west side and have a 9 month old and ready to move to the suburbs for a more family oriented lifestyle. grew up in queens and lived in manhattan the last 10 years. i've heard montclair is called the 'west west side' or the park slope of nj and that sounds appealing due to the mix of culture and suburbs.
however, aside from the high taxes i've heard the schools aren't that great and you are not only near but also share some parts of montclair with 'less desirable' people. can anyone speak more authoritively on this? really need the scoop and won't trust a real estate agent to tell me. thanks a bunch.
tim
Chi, thank you for the video.
I saw that the night it aired and thought it was very well done.
By the way, now that I know you're a Met fan, I'm trying not to let that change my high opinion of your opinions.
gato
let's talk mid-October - we may have a wager to make if things cut correctly
How does the song go?
"Beat the Mets..."
:)
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