Monday, September 04, 2006

Housing Down For The Count?

From RealtyTimes:

Housing Market On The Ropes

A flurry of economic reports unleashed in August left the national housing market reeling and on the ropes as it headed into the final round of what is typically the heavy buying season.

With each month like another grueling round for a pugilist in dire need of a cut doctor, the housing market is sweating prices and bleeding sales as it faces the grim possibility of going down for the count.

Yet, even with the wind all but knocked out of the housing bubble and hopes for a comeback slim, some experts hesitated calling the fight after more than a month of mortgage interest rate declines put some punch back into buying power.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 10 major metropolitan areas reported in August that single-family home prices revealed zero appreciation from May to June, after only a 0.5 percent gain from April to May as the market braced for price depreciation.
"Home prices are clearly decelerating," said Yale University economist Robert Shiller, the chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, who has warned of a house price bubble going bust. Shiller predicted the tech-sector driven stock market bust more than half a decade ago and co-developed the index with S&P.
Six of the 10 metro areas showed a month-over-month decline from May to June, with Boston reporting the largest monthly loss and an annual price loss of almost 2 percent, the index revealed.
John Burns Real Estate Consulting reported 84 of 100 of the nation's largest housing markets are overpriced with only 13 markets below historical median affordability levels and three at their historical affordability level.

Burns said in nine markets, prices are so high the markets were worse off in August in terms of affordability than in the early 1980s when interest rates were 18 percent or more. They were New York; Washington, D.C.; Los Angeles; Seattle; Portland; Baltimore; Edison; , Nassau; and Naples.


Anonymous waiting in Seattle said...

Absolutely positively cannot wait for this to be over.

And by that I mean: an overcorrection past the mean.

Just to make up for all the years of insanity.

I'm really hoping that all the "bears" out there who thought they'd be happy with a 15-20% correction are beginning to understand that it's going to take far more than that for the housing sector to get healthy again.

This is one sick puppy we are dealing with now.

9/04/2006 08:59:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

i'm not seeing the big inventory surge that's supposed to be typical this time of the year. very little is coming out in the NYC commuter towns. could be people are holding out for the spring market thinking they'll be all this built up demand waiting to overpay.

9/04/2006 09:32:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

check out this 'flip'.

bought at $525k in 9/05, renovated and now 1 year later listed at $595k. hasn't gone lower in a while and i was wondering why. well it looks like he's just about underwater at this price point. let's add up costs to date:

$525k purchase
~$35k 12 months carry cost
~$30k 2 new baths, updated kitchen, paint, custom closets
$590k total cost

closing costs will put him firmly underwater. this bozo could've probably sold during the spring peak for current amount but got greedy. now he'll likely eat 6 months additional carrying costs before spring time.

expect more of these at a neighborhood near you.

9/04/2006 09:53:00 PM  
Anonymous jay said...

Interesting site:

9/04/2006 10:45:00 PM  
Anonymous mortgage calculators said...

The only way to go is up. The sooner. The better.

9/05/2006 12:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yes mortgage calculators up is the only way.
my realtor said things are picking up more lookers are calling the office just like she said. she lives by the there are alot of people on the sidelines just waiting to buy.
and also a family member who is an agent says thing will pick up. my question is when? isnt the fall a slow time for housing and winter even slower? time will tell.
im waiting for the credit tightening coupled with some job loss

9/05/2006 05:07:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

There is a consistent "pattern" to North Jersey real estate. There is no reason to think that we're not going to follow the same pattern, albeit at significantly reduced levels.

We're past the seasonal peak in closed sales. Contracts and Sales will begin to decline until closed sales hit their yearly low in February.


9/05/2006 05:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

so realtors are waiting for a pick up in the traditionaly slow part of the year which is a contradiction. so they're grabbing at air on the way down.
we should see construction layoffs and possible retail layoffs and with i.o. and arm loans under a microscope from congress and the criterea about to changed we could see credit crunch/ job loss really make this crash gain momentum

9/05/2006 05:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The only way to go is up. The sooner. The better."

I have to kindly disagree with you fellows. We have a long way to go down before we go back up.

This fall & winter season I suspect is were we will see the velocity of this downward spiral start to pick up speed.

Its going to be ugly.


9/05/2006 06:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes. And oil is going to be $100 a barrel by Labor Day.

9/05/2006 06:58:00 AM  
Anonymous gary said...

It's over, no use fighting it. What are the steps? Denial, anger, depression, acceptance.

Once again, I'm a homeowner of many years.

9/05/2006 08:23:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

richard: labor day is behind us, and I thibk over the next couple of weeks, you will see a surge in inventory form people who too houses off the market that did not sell in Spring/Summer.

The thought being one last try before the holidays, and that if people are looking now, now is the time to buy if you would want to be in before the holidays.

Those who think we are at the bottom, are cluless, this is just getting started, 12 to 18 months in my opinion is when you will see some real bargains.

I used to think that we would get back to 2003 prices, now I can easily seeing prices reverting back to 2001 and 02.

9/05/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Richard, that's my favorite flipper.

He overpaid when buying, and then overpriced when "selling." He's been at $595K for about 3-4 months.

Houses on that street sold for $350K a couple of years ago.

9/05/2006 11:31:00 AM  

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