Slowdown
From PhillyBurbs.com:
Market slowdown
Market slowdown
If there's any doubt in your mind that the local real estate market has slowed, ask a seller.
“It seems like people are coming and looking, but nobody's making an offer,” said Terri Kiriakidi, who has been trying to sell her mother's Warminster house since June.
Or a real estate agent.
“I've never seen anything like this in my life,” said Herman Petrecca, a real estate agent with ReMax Associates in Warminster. “I've got a bunch of properties sitting on the market.”
Supporting these anecdotal assessments are cold, hard numbers, mined from the Multiple Listing Service used by real estate agents to track and record home sales and provided by Prudential, Fox & Roach Realtors.
Those numbers — all from the 43 municipalities of Central and Upper Bucks and Eastern Montgomery counties — show that it took 86 percent longer to sell a house in August than it did one year ago. They show that the number of homes sold in August, 521, was off 25 percent from a year ago. And they show that the local inventory of homes for sale hit an all-time high in August of 3,565, almost double December 2004's level of 1,814.
The numbers also show the area's median home-sales price hit an all-time high of $325,000 in August. But that median price was only 1.6 percent higher than the price in August 2005, one of the smallest year-over-year increases in recent memory and well below the year-over-year price increases homeowners enjoyed at the height of the boom. In May 2005, for instance, the area's median home price rose 17 percent from the previous May.
Many descriptive phrases are used to describe the area's current housing market. But all spell one word: slowdown.
43 Comments:
Just had an interesting exchange with BC Bob on another thread. I don't want it to get lost, so I'm repeating the gist of it here.
I posed the question: If this slowdown takes 10-15 years to play out, are you willing to rent for that long?
BC Bob responded:
I don't give a damn if it's 20 years. It's the SPREAD and money flow into this market, nothing else to me.
How many of you feel that committed to your position? How many are that willing to hold out for that long so that there's no risk of being underwater?
I'm honestly curious.
"""Never seen a slowdown like this in my life""" --- You wouldn't know it by looking at the listings on Craigslist and this smug arrogant attitude of most realtors in the NYC / NJ metro area.
They still think it is different here and that everyone looking to buy is a white six figure corporate professional who makes between $250,000 - $500,000 a year and is under 35.
They still think it is a hot market and that the railroad 'condo' apartment that is a 'huge & loftlike' 700 square feet is a steal at $400,000 in 'downtown' Jersey City.
Prices are still too high and for less than $500,000 you get utter crap. The best deals are North or West of the Catskills in Upstate NY or in southern jersey south of Exit 7A on the NJ Turnpike (which is outside the NYC metro area)
anon 3:49
"They still think it is different here and that everyone looking to buy is a white six figure corporate professional who makes between $250,000 - $500,000 a year and is under 35"
whys it gotta be like dat?
Japan's depreciation lasted 15-16 years but i believe the bulk came in the first 18-24 months.
i know everybody is calling the top Aug. 2005 but i think it was more like march 2006 (in my area)
the slowdown is gaining momentum alot of momentum. i wont wait more then another 18 months
plus for what i want i can afford now but i would rather benefit from the down like so many did on the up. im in good position
Sometimes, despite all the doom and gloom buying can still make sense depending on your own particular situation.
We had been looking for the past year to buy as our personal circumstances, first child and NYC rent (3500) made it seem like the right thing to do. After a lot of looking around we found a house in immaculate move in condition that my wife loved. Original asking was 699K and after some back and forth we got the house for 640K. We put 20% down with a 30 fixed.
Our gross income is 260K, so our mortgage of 512K is less than 2x our income. We can easily make our payments/taxes (9500 annual). Expect to be in the house for at least 10 years. Also the new location reduces my commute by about 30 minutes each way.
Buying for us is basically a forced savings program, subsidized in the form of tax deductible interest payments and tax deductible real estate taxes. After deductible taxes, and interest - the rest is principal, which I basically pay to myself, in the form of equity.
This compares quite favorably to the almost $3500 I used to pay in rent (for a smaller and much shittier apartment), even if 10 years later I sold our house at the very same price I had bought it. This is why NYC rising rents rising through the roof matter a lot in the equation.
For me, the worst case scenario, would be if some unforseen circumstance forced us to sell prematurely, in that case I may well have to eat a 20% loss. But absent that unforeseen circumstance buying was the right choice for us.
I guess I have to balance this potential worst case scenario against the savings I will get from not paying 42,000 a year in rent and no landlord who keeps raising my rent. Yes, I could put the $500/month that I am paying extra over renting into the stock market, but the stock market is much more volatile than the housing market, and I am already tied to the whims of the stock market thanks to my 401k, so investing in my own house has another big advantage: diversification and spreading my risk.
Finally, the house lets me protect against inflation deterioration. If inflation increases which appear likely, the dollar is worth less but my nominal payment stays the same. Every year the real payment is less and I pay less of my income toward housing i.e for us the house gets cheaper to live in every year.
Just my 2cents about my take on our situation.
Anon 4:58: when you posted this scenario under a different thread, the commute time saved was 40 minutes. Are you reverse commuting? Where, precisely, were you paying $3500 for shitty apartment (would presume midtown/murray hill), and where did you move to a house (in NYC?) for $640k that was 30 min closer to work? From my NYC vantage, the only way this makes sense is if you work in some place like Phillipsburg (on the border of PA/NJ) and moved from 42nd street to Allentown, a displacement loaded with all sorts of costs not accounted for in a ledger. Please explain.
Interesting article on aol
http://realestate.aol.com/article/_a/investors-run-for-the-exits/20060915175709990001
I am Anon 4:58.
Yes, i was reverse commuting. We lived in Gramercy near Murray Hill and I worked in White Plains which is about an hour commute.
Our new house is in Bronxville, NY and the commute is about 20-30 minutes.
"I've never seen anything like this in my life," said Herman Petrecca, a real estate agent with ReMax Associates in Warminster.
Get used ot it Herman. People are no longer willing to overpay, or use an ARM, knowing that appreciation will save them, and they can move on in 2-3 years with extra cash. Those days are gone.
Listing after listing have been bought only 2-3 years ago, and these people are hurting and can't sell.
200+ days on the market, several price drops, no Greater Fools signing up.
Even listing below what they paid 2 years ago, no one is signing up for the debt slavery.
Another listing just fell out of contract today after a week.
Greedy Grubbers are now in a storm, and there are no lifeboats. Nice to be on shore, watching the pieces of shipwreck wash ashore.
Anon, that article from AOL is good:
http://tinyurl.com/l8j7g
The nationwide supply of unsold homes hit a record in July and sales fell 11 percent from a year earlier as rising mortgage rates and market leeriness sent buyers to the sidelines. Since investors and second-home shoppers accounted for an unprecedented 40 percent of last year's buyers, their change of heart is having a staggering impact.
From the once sizzling markets of Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas to the major metro areas of New York, Boston, Chicago and California, investors of all types are dumping their holdings, experts say, especially inexperienced ones who bought in the last 18 months with minimal down-payments, hoping to flip properties for fast profits
"They're trying to escape a burning building and jamming all the exits," said John T. Reed, a noted real-estate newsletter publisher based near San Francisco.
Since investors and second-home shoppers accounted for an unprecedented 40 percent of last year's buyers...
First of all, that's 40% of last year's resale home buyers, not buyers overall.
A more granular view of those numbers shows that only 15% of homes in the Northeast were bought for investment. 17% of sales in the Northeast were second-home sales.
anon @ 04:58:40
I've seen you post past midnight and weekends. Are you really enjoying your house or are you at the edge of your seat trying to make yourself believe that you did the right thing?
In short i don't want to be like you. I would like to feel good about my purchase.
All your 2 cent posts have already added up to a more than a dollar :)
anon@06:33
Where did you pick those numbers from? I would like to see some proof.
Where did you pick those numbers from? I would like to see some proof.
Gladly. I got the more granular numbers from the same place the more global "40%" number came from.
http://tinyurl.com/nqdkl
My whole point of posting on this blog is to encourage people to look into the details, and not jut accept, and echo, others' sentiments.
Someone asked me, if I will move every year to find the best deal. It was about 5 threads back, probably lost by now; just reposting;
"Move every other year or so, looking for the best rental deal?"
WRONG,WRONG!!!!!! I negotiated up front. I pay cash, the first of the month. If I don't pay by the 1st, I pay a 4% late fee. On my end, I will not receive a rent hike for the first 2 years. The 3rd-5th, if I'm still renting is capped at 2% annually. Now if I don't live up to my agreement, paying cash by the 1st, the deal is null and void. What kind of deal did you negotiate with your municipality regarding your taxes?? What kind of deal did the I/O's, piggybacks negiotate with their lender??? By the way, I'd rather live like a chicken than be a dead duck.
BC Bob
BC Bob, that's great. But I'm sure, given the tone of your posts, that you still have your eye out for a distressed landlord, and would move at the drop of a hat to save some money.
Wouldn't you? Isn't that what you're all about?? The "spread," the return, in short, the $$$$, and the rest be damned?
Wrong,I have a pool, deck and backyard and best of all no maintenance. Live in the same community where I owned, same friends, restaurants, church, commute to work, etc... However,maybe a distressed seller not a landlord.
BC Bob
I've seen you post past midnight and weekends. Are you really enjoying your house or are you at the edge of your seat trying to make yourself believe that you did the right thing?
Aren't we all here on this blog, just trying to understand what is going on? Why beat the guy up for his decision? Why not look at his analysis, and refute it if you can, rather than draw conclusions based on when he posts and how often?
I've said it many times, but it's worth saying again: The attack dog stance of many on this blog discourages dialog and certainly does a diservice to Grim's hard work and calm rationality.
anon@07:34:31
What analysis?? He/she posts the same thing again and again and again!!
Give me your honest opinion... is this person really enjoying a half a million plus house??
Do you want to be in his/her position?? I really don't want to be and that's a true fact. Why am I being called an ‘attack dog’ for speaking the truth? As a matter of fact I feel you are attacking me for posting an honest opinion!
------
anon@7:15
thanks .. i'll read the article.
Anon at 07:04:50 PM
you said,
I've seen you post past midnight and weekends. Are you really enjoying your house or are you at the edge of your seat trying to make yourself believe that you did the right thing?
I didnt realize, you monitored when and how often I posted. I work alot of hours during the week and usually only have to post at night and on weekends.
Now, that being said and being irrelevant, do you have anything of substance to add?
FYI; I, my wife and son are are enjoying the house/yard or it sure feels like it but perhaps you want to refute that.
AM
@AM
No you have not made my post irrelevant!
Not everybody posts on this blog. It is the interested parties who do - buyers, sellers and realtors. For anyone else to post the same analysis over and over again there has to be an ulterior motive. Are you trying to flip that house you bought last month?
anon 07:47:16 PM
you said:
Give me your honest opinion... is this person really enjoying a half a million plus house?? Do you want to be in his/her position??
I dont know why I'm in such an terrible position (I'm presuming you mean financially). I have a job I love, am financially secure i.e. less than 30% of my total wealth is in the house and gosh darn people like me :)
AM
" Yes, I could put the $500/month that I am paying extra over renting into the stock market, but the stock market is much more volatile than the housing market, and I am already tied to the whims of the stock market thanks to my 401k, so investing in my own house has another big advantage: diversification and spreading my risk. "
Think correlation
Not trying to flip the house; i just bought it.
I'm just trying provide some balance to the blog to show that buying is not always a bad idea for everyone. That being said, I agree with most here that right now the market is terrible and its a lousy idea to buy for many.
AM
AM
>>I'm presuming you mean financially
I was talking about your home purchase not about your overall financial position. Your financial position is enviable to say the least :)
Anon @ 08:03:31 PM
you said..
Not everybody posts on this blog. It is the interested parties who do - buyers, sellers and realtors.
What are you a buyer, seller or realtor?
So according to you a person not failing into one of the above categories has not posted on this blog?
I think most people on this blog are none of the above; it makes no sense to be a buyer in this market and seller/realtor do not have much to legitmately post.
I'm starting to question your credibility.
anon@08:24
I'm a buyer.
So according to you a person not failing into one of the above categories has not posted on this blog?
please don't pull a Karl Rove on me. Read the next sentence. I said "For anyone else to post the same analysis over and over again there has to be an ulterior motive." Get that??
I think most people on this blog are none of the above
Was that a typo??? I'm starting to doubt whether you know what you are talking about.
AM,
I don't know why these posts are questioning you. I remember one of your initial posts. You analyzed this, knew the ramifications, did a purchase/rent analysis, knew the risk parameters and made your decision. Your decision worked for you, that's all that matters. I truly hope you are enjoying your new house/community.
BC Bob
An interesting question, one I have been asking myself over and over, has prompted me to stop lurking. Wow, 10 or 20 years of renting? Kill me first. Yes, I know I will get slammed for this statement, but I want to buy. I have been renting for the past 15 years, a result of job loss and then, later, being outpriced of the market. A very nice, small, apartment, 2 bedrooms, 950 sq feet, 3 kids, 2 adults, $1350 a month. No yard for my kids, no playroom for their toys, no storage for our stuff. Finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, I will lowball sellers down to my price range until someone is desperate enough to bite. That may happen next month, that may happen next year. When it does, I plan to stay there until 2021, when my youngest graduates high school. They will have stability, a childhood home, go to school with the same kids until they graduate. Why don't I rent a bigger home? It would cost me as much or more than a mortgage (in my price range). At the end of it all, I may be up or I may be down, but I will be half way toward owning my home (reguardless of it's market value). If the market swings back up again, great, but even if it doesn't, at least I took the chance. I just cannot throw away more money on rent, I have thus far spent $186,000 with nothing but memories of terrible landlords to show for it. I'm done.
Melissa
Anon @ 8:40:12 PM
I think most people on this blog are none of the above
Was that a typo??? I'm starting to doubt whether you know what you are talking about.
No, you read it right. I think and it appears fairly obvious most people are sitting it out for the time being and would not classify themselves as buyers in the current market.
In any event, this back and forth is idiotic especially since I think at the end of day, we probably agree on the state of the market, it sucks. Notwithstanding, I bought and mathematically it made sense given our situation.
Have a good night Anon.
AM
Thanks for the good wishes Bob. Btw, I really enjoy your posts, they are accurate and well thought out.
AM
"Those numbers — all from the 43 municipalities of Central and Upper Bucks and Eastern Montgomery counties — show that it took 86 percent longer to sell a house in August than it did one year ago."
...and don't forget, that's just for the ones that sold! The ones that still sit aren't included in that statistic. Wow.
AM-
Don't let these posters scare you. If you need to repost the same thing a few times, you go right ahead, as many times as you need to feel good about your choice and your position in life. If it helps someone choose to buy, great, (just FYI, it will most likely help others like yourself with 2 million net worth) but ho, hum for the rest of us 'nairy folk, we might just have to wait it out and lucky for us the tide is turning. Either way, each of us will make the decision that best suits us. Hoepfully, having a home that fulfills your lifestyle needs, net worth, and your wife's happiness is making you happy!
Thanks for sharing!!
AFE
"I negotiated up front. I pay cash, the first of the month. If I don't pay by the 1st, I pay a 4% late fee. On my end, I will not receive a rent hike for the first 2 years. The 3rd-5th, if I'm still renting is capped at 2% annually."
Wow, Bob, thanks for sharing that gem. Hope to use that one at some point. Squeeze them at every step, me likes, me likes.
An interesting question, one I have been asking myself over and over, has prompted me to stop lurking. Wow, 10 or 20 years of renting? Kill me first.
I would feel the same way. But there's so much cheering going on here for the benefits of renting that I wasn't sure if I was still in the majority.
But the posters are correct that there should be no real need to wait 10 or 15 years, but it is a good question to consider. Even five years would be too much for me, I'm afraid. Only one poster has indicated that he could wait 20 years as a renter if he had to.
Everyone's personal situation, financial picture, and tolerance for risk differs.
"Squeeze them at every step, me likes, me likes."
9/17/2006 09:29:49 PM
No, not at all. The lanlord is very happy. He receives his rent on the 1st and cash. Doesn't have to chase me down. Go ask any landlord if they would like that arrangement.
BC Bob
An update for Grim and others who took part in the discussion earlier in the week.
This house is now in attorney review:
MLS 2318033
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1067747176
On the market about a week.
This house is NOT in attorney review:
MLS 2303337
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1065267269
Greedy Grubbers take note. You will sit on your houses forever until they're properly priced.
The above house had ONE open house (today), and sold. Why? Properly priced for the current market (next year the buyers will be underwater, but that's another story).
Greedy Grubbers: 2005 is over. Stop dreaming with your fantasy asking prices, the party is over.
RE: Raritan Twp
That's way out there as far as location. I had mildly considered some homes out there (new 3,000 houses on 1-2 acre lots were running about $500K last year), but the location was too far out there.
Here's an example:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1066419104
I don't think you can compare a remote location with towns 30-45 minutes from NY City. The values will appreciate less, and stay more stable. Northern NJ towards the city is more 'bubble-fied', with prices in the stratosphere up to last summer.
That French Normandy home in Millburn is lovely. I want more land but that one is one pretty house.
Agree, fantastic place.
jb
AM@08:12
I consider myself a potential buyer. I'll buy tomorrow if the price is right. Likewise the 35K plus potential sellers in northern NJ will sell immediately for what they consider right price.
I bought outside Philadelphia in 2000. I bought right after my son was born. I will be hear or in a similar home until he gets out of school.
I miss renting. (There, I said it). I liked the maintenance free lifestyle. No roof to worry about. No yard work, etc...
Having re-financed twice, my 15 year mortgage is less than the rent on a two bedroom apartment. But everything else is more. Plus it seems like something always needs to be repaired.
Maybe some of us aren't cut out for ownership.
D2B
Its always about $$$ and nothing else.
If anyone wants to challenge me in this, give me your next paycheck.
SAS
D2B
I hear you. It's a worry with home ownership, and I'm factoring it in to the cost. My husband is a terrific Dad and husband, but it seems like he and maintenance just don't get along...kind of a Tim Taylor/Home Improvement tragedy wait-to-happen thing. When we DO buy, we are lowering our insurance deductible.
And I do dread the days we will give up to maintenance. But I'm hoping my attitude is just a residual effect of growing up in an huge, very-old, time-eater of a house. We ALWAYS spent Saturdays on maintenance (on ladders) and it was a drudge for the entire family.
Since we definitely will buy when the price is right for the house (lower net cost than our rent) we want, I just console myself with the thought that we're concentrating on homes that require a little LESS time.
It's nice to be able to have that luxury with the inventory on the market currently.
Pat
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