Friday, September 15, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by week.

102 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The news out this week was compelling, to say the least.

Robert Shiller, a Yale economics professor, ‘We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen because we’ve just experienced the biggest housing boom this country has ever seen,’ he says.The real question is, ‘Is this the beginning of a major period of decline as we saw in Japan, or will we see a kind of sharp and sudden correction?’”

Bob Toll- "The current downturn is unique. It's the highest level of speculative inventory ever."

Rick Sharga, Realty Trac-
"Usually, foreclosures are a lagging indicator. But we have never had a situation like this with ARM's amounting to approx 500 Billion coming up for adjustment for the rest of the year.

Business Week- calling the I/O's the most riskiest loan ever created.

When I hear ever,never,usually it tells me that this is an unprecendented phenomenon. People, we are in unchartered waters. I am beginning to think that my original estimate of a decline of 30-40% may be conservative. Remember, I am talking from peak to valley. Time frame?? Please don't look for immediate gratification, it will take time.

BC Bob

9/15/2006 11:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think we had compelling news
out today on our former governor.

very nice.

9/15/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about this for a weekend discussion;

On Craig's today;

"Hi, I currently have 6 properties for sale by owner and 20 more properties I will be selling in the next 12 months; Unfortunately,I haven't been able to sell them for the last couple of months. At this point, I made a decision to listed with a Real Estate agency.
Therefore, I will be interviewing agents within the next 3 to 4 weeks."

But it's different in NNJ?????

BC Bob

9/15/2006 11:50:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Bob, using the past two boom/bust cycles as a guide, we're looking to hit bottom in 2010:

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

However, given the toxicity of the loans used to support this bust, the unprecedented levels of stupidity exhibited by millions of buyers, and the free flow of information via the Internet, we should hit bottom sooner this time around.

We're in for some substantial price drops, and anyone who looks at the above chart and disagrees, is selling something.

9/15/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

I am beginning to think that my original estimate of a decline of 30-40% may be conservative. Remember, I am talking from peak to valley. Time frame?? Please don't look for immediate gratification, it will take time.
BC Bob

Bergs: real or nominal?

real I can fathom, nominal seems a little over the top

it is beyond rational expectation to expect people to "lock-in" massive losses of that type, I don't see how people will rationalize it - and I do think the majority WILL have a choice about it

9/15/2006 12:02:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Sorry for long post - from WSJ Editorial Column

New Jersey Switcheroo
September 15, 2006; Page A12

For pure entertainment value, not much can compete with the blood sport of New Jersey politics. Last week federal investigators launched a probe into whether U.S. Senator Robert Menendez illegally benefited to the tune of more than $300,000 from a rental-income deal he had with a nonprofit agency that received millions of dollars in federal contracts. Even liberal good government groups agree that the relationship may have violated congressional conflict-of-interest rules.

The allegations have sparked a mini-panic among state Democratic operatives, who not so long ago thought Mr. Menendez -- who was appointed by Jon Corzine to complete his Senate term after being elected Governor in 2005 -- had the November election in the bag. Now they see Republican Tom Kean Jr. surging into a lead. If Republicans were to pick up a seat in this deep blue state, Democrats' chances of winning control of the Senate would be all but slammed shut.


That's why, as reported by the Newark Star-Ledger, there's now widespread speculation that the party brass may decide to throw Mr. Menendez overboard and replace him with an alternative -- nine-term Rep. Rob Andrews, perhaps -- who is regarded as more electable. This has become a familiar practice in the Garden State and has become known derisively as the New Jersey Switcheroo.

The details of the case are as follows. In 1998, while Mr. Menendez was a member of the House, he helped a nonprofit housing and health-care agency known as the North Hudson Community Action Group win designation as a federally qualified health-care center. This designation allowed the nonprofit group to obtain $9.6 million in federal grants. The nonprofit's employees have contributed some $30,000 to Menendez campaigns over the years, including $9,000 from the agency's director. The alleged conflict of interest arises from the fact that the Hudson County nonprofit paid Mr. Menendez a total of $329,353 starting in 1994 to rent a building he owned.

The Senator responds that his efforts on behalf of the Hudson County Action Group are no different than interventions he has made on behalf of dozens of similar nonprofit groups seeking federal funds. He also says that he received verbal authorization from a House Ethics Committee staffer on this deal. But strangely enough, as reported by Roll Call, the staffer didn't work for the committee at the time Mr. Menendez says he received the approval, and that person has subsequently died. It is also considered standard practice to get written approval from the committee when an ethical issue like this arises.

If this story seems like déjà vu all over again, it should. This isn't the first time New Jersey Democrats have nominated ethically challenged candidates for high office. Last year Jim McGreevey resigned the governorship after he hired his gay lover as the state's national security director. In 2002, Senator Robert Torricelli was implicated in a bribery and campaign finance scandal, prompting the party oligarchs to throw him off the ballot and handpick Frank Lautenberg as his replacement on the ticket. Never mind that the deadline for ballot changes had passed. Senator Lautenberg kept the Senate seat from falling into Republican hands.

Republicans haven't won a statewide race in New Jersey since the election of Governor Christie Whitman back in the mid-1990s, in part because the Democratic machine reserves the imperial right to replace elected candidates on the general election ballot. Nowhere in the country do party leaders so cavalierly disenfranchise their primary voters when they fear their nominee is going to lose. For the New Jersey GOP, it's like trying to win at poker when your opponent can call for a redeal every time he doesn't like his cards.

Senator Menendez has vowed to stay in the race to the bitter end. Democrat leaders publicly insist they will stick with the Senator, but they sound about as sincere as a sports franchise owner who gives the head coach a public vote of confidence after a third straight last-place finish. At the next press conference, the coach invariably is gone.

The more serious issue here is whether Garden State voters are growing weary of the culture of big boss cronyism that has contaminated their government from city hall to the U.S. Senate. This is a state with a steeply rising cost of living and a property-tax burden that is both the highest in the nation and twice the national average. The state has some of the worst schools and most expensive municipal services in the country.

We don't know whether Mr. Menendez is guilty of violating federal conflict-of-interest laws. But it's worth noting that a Senate ethics complaint has been filed against him. The last major Senate ethics investigation was the one launched four years ago against New Jersey's Torricelli.

9/15/2006 12:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

UnRealtor,

I totally agree. Also, use Japan as a guide.
We are on the same track as they were, and think we are about 5 years behind them, so you may be right on with your predictions.

Internet and free flow of information will speed things up and make things alot worse too. Without internet, it was pretty easy to keep things in the dark, but the world had changed alot in last 10 years.

Its going to get real ugly. But hey....RE always goes up right? This is NYC metro area...we are different.

SAS

9/15/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sellers must be getting miserable right about now. Now all they can think about is "I wish i sold last year"

Well you are to late and if you don't start lowering your price you will be making even less as price tumble next year.

9/15/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

More Jersey corruption.

Power broker Lynch pleads guilty

Former state Sen. John Lynch pleaded guilty this morning to corruption charges, admitting he secretly took tens of thousands of dollars from a contractor who wanted his help developing state parkland.

In a hearing in federal District Court in Newark, Lynch pleaded guilty to theft of honest services through fraud and tax evasion.
...
Lynch admitted that he broke the law when he accepted consulting payments from officials at a South Brunswick sand company. Though the company was not named during the hearing, it is Dallenbach Sand Co., a company that sought state permission to buy and mine parkland in South Brunswick Township at the same time Lynch was a state senator.

9/15/2006 12:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

10 to 1 ratio.

10 sellers to each 1 qualified buyer.

The odds are stacked against you.

Can you fathom that house prices went up at quadruple the rate of income increase the last 4-5 years?

I can fathom prices dropping just as hard, since most of this bubble was built on phoney loans.

9/15/2006 12:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's all common sense. 1+1 = 3

The dummies are using fuzzy math.

9/15/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CF,

Sorry, nominal. Yeah, I know a lot of people think I'm crazy, so be it.

It is also beyond rational thinking that what occured in this market actually has. Unfortunately most won't have a choice about rationalizing it. Note holders will become very rational when they realize that they owe X amount on an asset valued at Y, especially when their toxic loan blows up. Remember, I'm not talking about long time owners that have built up substantial equity. By the way how did you come up with Bergs??? I saw you post that in the past, never knew you were referring to me.

BC Bob

9/15/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whatcha going to do when the IO ARM readjusts,Dummies?

Papapapa
PANIC?
Foreclosure?

Do not worry RE never drops more than 5%?

9/15/2006 12:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh I forgot to say that RE pimps say the markets are balanced "normal" now.

Would do you think grubbers? Ypur house sits on the market for 3-4 months and NOT one bite?

Feel normal to you?

Keep fantasizing.

9/15/2006 12:23:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From Inman:
Short sales expected to rise as housing slows

Have you ever closed a short sale? If you've been in the business for fewer than 10 years, this may be an entirely new term for you. It's also one of your worst nightmares as both a listing and selling agent.

A "short sale" refers to a situation where the seller lacks sufficient equity to close the sale. When this occurs, the seller must contribute additional funds or ask the lender to reduce the loan amount in order to close the sale. As you might imagine, earning a full commission under these circumstances can be extraordinarily difficult.
...
With almost 9 million loans readjusting to a higher rate in 2007, there will be an increasing number of people who cannot afford to make higher loan payments. Foreclosure rates are continuing to climb. If you want a steady stream of business during a market downturn, learning how to negotiate short sales can be a lucrative source of business. Representing sellers who have little or no equity is not for the faint of heart, however. If you're ready to tap into a difficult but lucrative market, see next week's article to learn how.

9/15/2006 12:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i heard some spin today that existing
home sales for August, due out on
9/25 I believe, might surprise to the
upside.

on the contrary, i think August might
show a sharp decline, as nothing
around here seems to be moving.

it's a wonder the gov't and industry
groups just don't fudge the numbers,
as they do with "core" inflation.

9/15/2006 12:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Help! Home for sale - the Eatons
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/15/real_estate/help_home_for_sale_Eaton/index.htm?postversion=2006091512


May apply to some areas of S NJ

9/15/2006 12:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

According to the MLS website here is the actual numbers sold:

04/01-07/01:
2,339 homes and condo's in BC sold (closed)

07/01- to date:
2,083 homes and condo's in BC sold
(closed)

not really great but not a sharp decline either.

9/15/2006 12:52:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

the fact that inventory is increasing as we head into the slow season is a very bad sign for sellers.

the question is whether a lot of these people are just fishing for a sucker to pay an inflated price, or whether most are serious sellers.

difficult to get a handle on the "serious seller" question esp when you consider that realtors in many bubbly areas may be discouraging people from listing right now. continued talk of a rebound in 2007 may have convinced some people to hold off listing.

what will happen as sellers and potential sellers start to realize that this downturn isn't temporary? will they rush to sell, or will many of them pull out?

9/15/2006 12:52:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

04/01-07/01:
2,339 homes and condo's in BC sold (closed)

07/01- to date:
2,083 homes and condo's in BC sold


This comparison is invalid. Due to the extreme seasonal variation in sales volume month to month or quarter to quarter comparisons are meaningless (without seasonal adjustment). The proper comparison would be to compare the same time period year over year.

jb

9/15/2006 12:56:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Please see:

August Residential Sales

For an example of that I am talking about.

jb

9/15/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
I was only pointing out that compared to the previous few months that were horrible for the the industry.. the summer normally slow and worse than spring wasn't hugely different as the previous poster suggested August was going to be worse


If you want the acutual last years number I can give those to you

9/15/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Gotcha.

Sure, I'd like to see a YOY comparison of both those ranges. NJMLS?

jb

9/15/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes

BC only
04/01/2005-07/01/2005-
2,936 sold

07/01/2005-10/01/205
3346 sold

odd huh

9/15/2006 01:11:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Anonymous said...
Help! Home for sale - the Eatons
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/15/real_estate/help_home_for_sale_Eaton/index.htm?postversion=2006091512


May apply to some areas of S NJ

9/15/2006 01:46:26 PM


"We had someone make an offer of $275,000," says Eaton. "I didn't even counteroffer. "The most I'll come down is $10,000."

Perhaps she shouldn't be so smug and actually give a counter offer lol

9/15/2006 01:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Listen up grubbers.

“To hear the off-the-cuff remarks of real estate agents is enough to inspire a new horror genre. ‘It’s cratering underneath my feet,’ muttered one agent after his pristinely marketed, cautiously priced listing engendered only a single, below-asking offer.”

“Another agent, whose characteristic optimism had evaporated like the sheen on a new floor after an open house, bluntly described the market as ‘flat-lined.’”

It's bad really bad!

9/15/2006 01:14:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

You've got 15 extra days in the 7/1-10/1 range. The issue there is that you are including the large number of closings that typically take place EOM.

grim

9/15/2006 01:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A friend spoke to a re agent yesterday. She said the realtor said things are going to be "ugly" next year. Exact term. Plenty of "short sales".
is short sale bankruptcy?

Believe it or not an honest realtor. Said things were "overdone" last 5 years In need of correction to take them down. "20% was number she threw out.

Are we seeing the first signs of the new ATTITUDE ADJUSTMENT?

To early for this. Many more months and year(s) of crabby miserable harassing realtors before it bottoms.

9/15/2006 01:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks.. Its friday and I haven't slept in 2 days due to an infant and double pink eye couldn't figure out why so different

9/15/2006 01:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

pink eye always goes around right after schools reopen.

Get the drops - you'll have a better Monday.

9/15/2006 01:24:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

By the way how did you come up with Bergs??? I saw you post that in the past, never knew you were referring to me.
BC Bob
9/15/2006 01:20:29 PM

Didn't you once post that "BC" stands for "Bergen County"?

When I read "BC Bob" I hear "Bergen County Bob" in my head.

9/15/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

She has been on the drops for 4 days... Its a bad one all gooey and it was in her hair this morning.. YUCK.. I have another appt with the doc tomorrow

9/15/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

Lynch is pure evil. He was my mayor when I lived in the "Hub City".

Back in the early 80's he was being investigated by the FBI. He married his girlfriend Deb D'Auricchio that was being questioned by the FBI just to shut them down. BTW, her Brother is a convicted mobster.

9/15/2006 01:28:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

To be honest, I don't see the prices dropping. I get new listings from an agent everyday (Pascack Valley area) and still see the prices being set at 2005 levels. I really don't get it. They must be moving or else the agents would be telling the owners to price lower. What gives?

9/15/2006 01:35:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Anonymous said...
She has been on the drops for 4 days... Its a bad one all gooey and it was in her hair this morning.. YUCK.. I have another appt with the doc tomorrow

9/15/2006 02:27:33 PM


I usually read from the bottom up, not from the top down. You can imagine what went through my head when I read that!!

9/15/2006 01:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

THAT IS SOO NOT RIGHT...

9/15/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

The Realtor.com site for Monmouth and Ocean Counties has changed how it classifies age-restricted communities in its listings.

Last week, age restricted units were listed with the condos, now they are listed with the single family homes.

Why I know this and why it is significant will hopefully become a little more clear next week.

9/15/2006 01:40:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

To be honest, I don't see the prices dropping. I get new listings from an agent everyday (Pascack Valley area) and still see the prices being set at 2005 levels. I really don't get it. They must be moving or else the agents would be telling the owners to price lower. What gives?

Don't confuse the asking price with the sold prices. Asking prices are marketing tools.

grim

9/15/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CF,

No, once I posted that the BC does not stand for Bergen County. Someone was getting all confused with the different Bob's posting. I decided to add something for differential purposes. The BC is my alma mater.

BC Bob

9/15/2006 01:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"They must be moving or else the agents would be telling the owners to price lower. What gives?"

In gereral, things are not moving, because sellers don't want to lower their prices and agents won't offer the lowball that the sellers want.

Right now we may have the early stages of a "lamb market".

lamb market = neither a sellers or buyers market.

Or put it another way:

We have a Mexican standoff going on between the sellers and buyers.

SAS

9/15/2006 01:48:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Senate hearing on Nontraditional Mortgages next week..

Calculated Risk: Assessing Non-Traditional Mortgage Products

9/15/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

Gary,

Just because asking prices haven't dropped much yet doesn't mean houses are moving. Take a look at overall inventory in the market your referencing. My guess is that it's up significantly.

Sellers take a long time to realize they are overpriced, so asking is still up. Also, if you can, check out where the actual sales prices are compared to a year ago.

Hhomeowners have been accepting below asking price on their homes for months now while that was not the case a year ago.

Obviously the same sort of thing is goiing on with new construction as builders offer "incentives" that weren't in place last year.

9/15/2006 01:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,

Did you notice your web site was down for a few moments or was it me? I was getting a message from blogger saying this site was not available.

You must be ruffling some feathers with this web page. Watch out for that horse head....

;)
SAS

9/15/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

think the big question in this market is when prices go down, how much and when? transaction levels are approaching 2003 levels but prices are far removed from that. will prices follow linerally with transaction volume even given a lag? remember prices are sticky on the way down and might not move linerally. this is unclear territory given the biggest liquidity pump in history and all the toxic loans. no we haven't been this way before.

9/15/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

transaction levels are approaching 2003

National or local?

jb

9/15/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Toll Brothers are putting on a picnic in Hoboken this weekend:

Toll Picnic

Free food, prizes? I'd be there if I didn't have a prior engagement.

jb

9/15/2006 02:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We need to drink more .. That is the solution


Alcohol use helps boost income: study Thu Sep 14, 6:44 AM ET



WASHINGTON (AFP) - People who consume alcohol earn significantly more at their jobs than non-drinkers, according to a US study that highlighted "social capital" gained from drinking.

ADVERTISEMENT


The study published in the Journal of Labor Research Thursday concluded that drinkers earn 10 to 14 percent more than teetotalers, and that men who drink socially bring home an additional seven percent in pay.

"Social drinking builds social capital," said Edward Stringham, an economics professor at San Jose State University and co-author of the study with fellow researcher Bethany Peters.

"Social drinkers are out networking, building relationships, and adding contacts to their BlackBerries that result in bigger paychecks."

The authors acknowledged their study, funded by the Reason Foundation, a libertarian think tank, contradicted research released in 2000 by the Harvard School of Public Health.

"We created our hypothesis through casual observation and examination of scholarly accounts," the authors said.

"Drinkers typically tend to be more social than abstainers."

The researchers said their empirical survey backed up the theory, and said the most likely explanation is that drinkers have a wider range of social contacts that help provide better job and business opportunities.

"Drinkers may be able to socialize more with clients and co-workers, giving drinkers an advantage in important relationships," the researchers said.

"Drinking may also provide individuals with opportunities to learn people, business, and social skills."

They also said these conclusions provide arguments against policies aimed at curbing alcohol use on university campuses and public venues.

"Not only do anti-alcohol policies reduce drinkers' fun, but they may also decrease earnings," the study said.

"One of the unintended consequences of alcohol restrictions is that they push drinking into private settings. This occurred during the Alcohol Prohibition of 1920-1933 and is happening on college campuses today. By preventing people from drinking in public, anti-alcohol policies eliminate one of the most important aspects of drinking: increased social capital."

The researchers found some differences in the economic effects of drinking among men and women. They concluded that men who drink earn 10 percent more than abstainers and women drinkers earn 14 percent more than non-drinkers.

However, unlike men, who get a seven percent income boost from drinking in bars, women who frequent bars at least once per month do not show higher earnings than women drinkers who do not visit bars.

"Perhaps women increase social capital apart from drinking in bars," the researchers said in an effort to explain the gender gap.

9/15/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Real Estate market in Japan is in terrible shape. The bubble there burst in 1990. My family owns an apartment building there which was valued at $7 Million in 1990 (peak) and in 2006 Jan it was valued at only $2 Million.Rental income went down by 50% Interet rates went down to 1% several years ago to try and revive the economy there but it did not work. The real estate market shows no sign of recovery and there is hardly any activity. It is over 16 years now. I dont think we can compare what may happen here to Japan because in Japan it is not easy to get financing for housing there. They even banned bank financing for real estate for many years to try and prop up the values but it did not work. It still is a horror story there.

9/15/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Anonymous said...

WASHINGTON (AFP) - People who consume alcohol earn significantly more at their jobs than non-drinkers, according to a US study that highlighted "social capital" gained from drinking.

So, why am I not a CIO then?

9/15/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

100 year loans in japan were common 15 years ago.

Today in US the toxic loans are IO IO IO!
Lot of dummies very worried about now, but but they have not realized they are deadmeat yet. Many probably believe they can sell. hehehehe
Man they are in for a nightmare.

9/15/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CHEERS!

babababa
Burp!

Enjoy the weekend, should be another disappointing and miserable one for the delusional grubbers.

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

9/15/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just want to let you know I have been following this site for awhile, and love it. Just saw a house i like, it has been on the market aprox,8 mts. and is vacant,I was able to find out(thanks to your site) The seller bought in 2004, there has been no updating done, although it is a very clean house, he is now asking 80k over what he paid, in this market what do you think is afair offer?

9/15/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe offer to rent it from them for 1/3 of their carrying costs or whatever the going rent is in your town? After almost a year, they might take you up on it.

Then you'll be in like flint when the price drops another 30%.

Just a thought.

9/15/2006 03:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The Real Estate market in Japan is in terrible shape."
9/15/2006 04:11:50 PM

Thanks for sharing your story. I bet the majority of the homebuyers/flippers, in the last 3-4 years, have no idea what happened in Japan starting in 1990. Can our RE market go through a similar period???

BC Bob

9/15/2006 04:02:00 PM  
Blogger Ms Somers said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

9/15/2006 04:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

She has been on the drops for 4 days... Its a bad one all gooey and it was in her hair this morning.. YUCK.. I have another appt with the doc tomorrow

Just an FYI, the first time my DD had pink eye, we found out she was allergic to the drops to treat it. She was allergic to one brand, but not another. You may want to check that, especially if the has other allergies (my DD is allergic to almost every antibiotic).
D

9/15/2006 04:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can our RE market go through a similar period???

In answer to the above question regarding the outcome in Japan, I can only say that the fundementals here are completely out of whack and that the dollar is inflated .The hipe about income and growth is a lot of bs because when you wipe out all the inflated gains in real estate which has already been taken out in form of equity loans and already spent in consumer spending (bye-bye, gone) which supported some of the jobs and income talked about,what happens when the real estate values are slashed? Negative territory, plus unemployment due to construction pull back, and land option renegging and what have you. More war is on the agenda to employ more people towards the war machine and its chaos. The economic indicators do not show any improvement in my estimation for at least 8 years down the road for the housing sector to recover.The banks will play their games to induce more sales with creative financing but it wont work anymore.Comes Spring the stock market is going to take its toll. Hedge while you can because the election year shennanigans are artificially supporting the stock market and somewhat the real estate market with low interest rates.Use this timing as a great opportunity to get out and hedge wherever possible.

9/15/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger cs said...

"When I hear ever,never,usually it tells me that this is an unprecendented phenomenon."

Good point BC Bob. The baffling thing for most experts is that this downturn is happening when interest rates are historically low. Most people go by the logic that RE is robust when interest rates are low.

9/15/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
Toll Brothers are putting on a picnic in Hoboken this weekend:
Toll Picnic
Free food, prizes? I'd be there if I didn't have a prior engagement.
jb
9/15/2006 03:27:13 PM

There is so much Laphroaig at the end of that rainbow. I can't possibly think what could be more important.

My wife has her baby shower tomorrow afternoon, and I'll be all scotch, all the time, and BBQ on Toll's time.

I'm partying with my uncle the Albaninan way........!

9/15/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

She has been on the drops for 4 days... Its a bad one all gooey and it was in her hair this morning.. YUCK.. I have another appt with the doc tomorrow

--
Also, the kids are getting immune. On a positive note, pinkeye eventually goes away by itself, right, like most ear infections? It's just horrifically Dawn-of-the-Dead-like to have to look at for 2 weeks.

9/15/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah!!! Baby Shower time!

My husband loved the baby shower day. It was like his first get out of jail day in almost nine months.

Pat

9/15/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger cs said...

Jim Kramer wins the idiot of the year award. Today he recomends homebuilders. Someone should show him the WSJ. Good thing I don't buy his stocks.

9/15/2006 05:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The baffling thing for most experts is that this downturn is happening when interest rates are historically low."

CS,
You are right on target. They are like a deer in headlights, frozen. The are confused because there was no economic, interest rate reason for this to occur. When markets exhaust themselves after a major blow off top, they implode on their own. The industry doesn't get this. They will. At this point, realtors,sellers and buyers don't have a concrete idea of what pricing realistically is. When you go to an open house you usually get a brochure on the house. I take it a step further. I present them with my brochures, print outs of what is really happening in this market. Let them read my brochures. Their's doesn't mean a thing to me. They are pulling prices out of the air.

BC Bob

9/15/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CS,

I don't advise buying these stocks. However, the street started to sell these last summer.It could just be sell the rumor,buy the news. There have been tremendous profits on the short side. Currently, these stocks certainly are a candidate for a powerful, counter trend, short covering rally. Be careful. I would not short here. If they have a 50% retracement, take out a HEL(not meant for CS) and short the house. Homeowners could hedge their outrights. Cushion the blow.

BC Bob

9/15/2006 05:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This guy anon-9/15/2006 05:18:05
knows exactly what he is talking about. That was a great post.

You all should read and take note.

SAS

9/15/2006 08:40:00 PM  
Blogger cs said...

" The Best Buy in Cedar Grove!!!!! And, will contribute $5,000 at closing for cosmetics. Open House- 9/17 (1-4). "

It's such a good buy that the seller is paying you!

lol

9/15/2006 08:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

O.K.

Buyers are trying anything.

I just saw a listing with the following description, "Spectacular, Completely Remodeled & Expanded...

...a Must See! HUGE REDUCTION! Previously listed w/another broker at $__________

They have the two numbers, and it's a 13% price reduction. It's almost like the broker's trying to lowball the other broker.

Anybody else seeing this?

Pat

9/15/2006 09:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i am in the downtown jersey city just waiting...

Since i moved in back in June of this summer i have seen the same open houses. They spin them in all kind of ways by offering wine and cheese oh and moonlight open houses from 10 to midnight. Yes the prices are slashed a bit here and a gash there. Nobody is biting yet though. Its as if the milk is spoiled, the love is lost, there is no attraction at all to by for anybody anymore.

my concern.

will prices be allowed to dip low enough 40 - 60% without triggering another frenzy? If the IO loans and other toxic loans are available, i think this could put a damper on our little plan of sweeping in. does this make sense to anybody else?

YET! I have seen homes drop prices enourmously in some cases and still nothing. Is this just the psycology of the consumer now? back to the sentiment i was speaking of earlier. NOBODY wants it anymore. NOBODY cares to buy your stinky house for 500K or 400k for that matter.

9/15/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Especially not the ones that smell like old chicken soup.

9/15/2006 09:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

or my personal favorite: cigarete with scented candle.

9/15/2006 09:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" NOBODY wants it anymore. NOBODY cares to buy your stinky house for 500K or 400k for that matter."

Yes, money is trying to find a new home.

SAS

9/15/2006 09:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

if money is trying to find a new home, doesn't that support the notion that it will find its way to the stock market and support its gains?

just wondering

9/15/2006 10:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi all,

We just bought and the house appraised at over the sale price.

Does this mean squat?

9/15/2006 10:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There are buyers out there.

I moved to NJ in April and immediately realized the market direction seemed going down.

I am one of 30 or so new hires in my company, a top Fortune 500. We are all renting and no body buys anything yet. My company will pay closing cost if I buy in a year. but we all agree housing price is going down more and we would rather give up this benefit.

I sold mine just in time and now interest of my savings pays more than my rent. Wait and you will make money. Sell high and buy low, guys.

9/15/2006 10:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:23

Darkness is fickle,
To follow is folly-
A stream to a fall common.
Light the vapor frees,
Fragrant and new.
And the footpath sure.


{Money is in the dark right now}

9/15/2006 11:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I sold a six family unit in JC recently... After my listing expired. I decided to market it myself :) I listed my property for free on njville.com and craigslist.com

I had to sift through all the Realtor emails but sure enough I found my buyer :-)

I also have a building in North Arlington which needed a tenant. Being that I had such good results marketing the JC property I decided to run with this as well.

"LOL" I got so many calls from NJville and craigslist I had to cancel the ads after 2 days... I rented it myself. Just thought I would throw in my 2 cents :)

9/16/2006 01:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Metal said...

useful information blog,very good content.

9/16/2006 03:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As long as wall street bonuses are large, the nnj market will stay bouyant..and by the looks of it, bonuses should be solid this year.

9/16/2006 05:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i think this could put a damper on our little plan of sweeping in. does this make sense to anybody else?

If the future is as pessimistic as the posters here make it out to be, why hope to "swoop in" and buy property, even at 30 -40% off?

Why own an ever-depreciating asset?

9/16/2006 06:19:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Chicagofinance,

Albanians sure know how to party.

And Albanian girls are the best women/wives in the world.

9/16/2006 07:17:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

I want to see the housing market coming down.

But I failed to see why all the cheering at the misery of others.

9/16/2006 07:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"if money is trying to find a new home, doesn't that support the notion that it will find its way to the stock market and support"

Its possible... I think that is why you see the market getting that nice bump as of late.

But as soon as equity starts to go up in smoke, so will stocks. Will the stock market crash? No, but I think it will be below 10,000.

9/16/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
Hi all,
We just bought and the house appraised at over the sale price.
Does this mean squat?
9/15/2006 11:36:22 PM

No, it does not.

Good luck in your new home.

9/16/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

Hi all,
We just bought and the house appraised at over the sale price.
Does this mean squat?


Try to sell it at appraised price, then you'll see if it's squat or not.

9/16/2006 08:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well I guess the follow up question is that if a house appraises at less than the sales price does that mean the appraisal is a more credible?

thanks

9/16/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Hi all,
We just bought and the house appraised at over the sale price.
Does this mean squat?
9/15/2006 11:36:22 PM

Congrats you are now a bagholder.Slice another 15-20% off that so called appraised value.
All an appraisal is a trend valuing service. The trend is going down now so you can imagine where that appraisal will go.

9/16/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want to see the housing market coming down.

But I failed to see why all the cheering at the misery of others.

9/16/2006 08:18:06 AM

Why is it considered cheerleading and misery of others when prices go down?

What about when a rational buyer who cares about value keeps being priced out by a bunch of numbnuts dummies that use phoney loans?

Let the damn prices crash already. To many scamsters involved in RE right now.

9/16/2006 08:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If these greeedy grubbing "it's not 2005" sellers would just lower their ripoff prices the starving realtors may get a few scraps.

9/16/2006 09:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 32,222 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site

Oh NO! More inventory again.

9/16/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How little you know of my situation and yet you have such a definate conclusion. You would need more facts to make your claim.

Congrats you are now a bagholder. Slice another 15-20% off that so called appraised value.
All an appraisal is a trend valuing service. The trend is going down now so you can imagine where that appraisal will go.

9/16/2006 09:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey if you do not mind being a underwater bagholder down 20% at some point then so what.
What's a couple $100K anyway?

9/16/2006 09:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

realtors are pushing low balls.
Guess a few months of no commish checks can change your attitude.

COOOOOOLLAPSE!

9/16/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who is the pigeon that bought?
Good luck watching your equity evaporate before your eyes next 2 years.

9/16/2006 09:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know of a home that appraised
at 679k for an equity line.

The house is worth about 450k,
been siting on the market for
months.

Thats what a drive by appraisal
is worth.

Careful with your equity.

9/16/2006 10:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Drove thru Northvale and Norwood
recently. Seems to be alot
of homes for sale. Many
FSBO.

I just the grubbers could not
get their price, blame the Realtor.

9/16/2006 10:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As Pres. Bush would say, "Yo Grim".

Thanks for this informative site. I've made it a regular stop. Reading your blog is kind of like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Unfortunately, it's a train I'll be jumping on next year.

Casey Jones you better watch your speed...

9/16/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grubbing sellers you missed the top.
To bad.
But the wise thing to do is get ahead of the curve as prices tumble lower. Cut your profits or losses depending on the situation.

9/16/2006 12:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Just saw a grubber drop the price $2000 on a bloated overpriced 1 bedroom condo.
Chase the market down.
Good LUCK!

9/16/2006 12:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Union County property I was looking at for $615k in April was under contract by May per the broker. I just searched today and its back on the MLS listed at the same 615k price. Deal fell through after the buyer started reading nnjrebubble blog? Perhaps...

9/16/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Why own an ever-depreciating asset?"

Bogus question -- the asset isn't "ever-depreciating," just depreciating until it hits bottom:

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

If you feel like buying said asset near it's 100-year-peak, go right ahead.

9/16/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bogus question -- the asset isn't "ever-depreciating," just depreciating until it hits bottom

Not a bogus question. According to some of the prevailing thinking on this blog, it will be 10-15 years before housing appreciates again.

So why the avowed plans to "swoop in"? Why not just rent for 10-15 years?

9/16/2006 06:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 07:19:32,

Like shytowns says...

Beware of the false bottom.
Cross off at least the next 2-3 years.

SAS

9/16/2006 09:26:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home