Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Northern New Jersey August Residential Sales

Preliminary August sales data for Northern New Jersey is in..

The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph displays the same sales data (2003-2006) for the first four months of the year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.


(click to enlarge)

The third graph displays only August sales, 2000 to 2006 YOY.


(click to enlarge)

The last graph displays YOY August sales, broken down by county.


(click to enlarge)

The numbers:

January
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2000
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1705
(Down 15.3% Year Over Year)

February
Average Sales (2003-2005): 1583
2005 Sales: 1578
2006 Sales: 1395
(Down 11.6% Year Over Year)

March
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2193
2005 Sales: 2256
2006 Sales: 2033
(Down 9.9% Year Over Year)

April
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2322
2005 Sales: 2383
2006 Sales: 1817
(Down 23.8% Year Over Year)

May
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2615
2005 Sales: 2725
2006 Sales: 2298
(Down 15.7% Year Over Year)

June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)

July
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3495
2005 Sales: 3338
2006 Sales: 2428
(Down 27.3% Year Over Year)

August
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3661
2005 Sales: 3668
2006 Sales: 2599
(Down 29.1% Year Over Year)

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

54 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Keep in mind that these are preliminary numbers.

This thread will remain at the top today, so be sure to scroll further down the main page to check for new topics.

jb

9/05/2006 06:49:00 AM  
Blogger lindsey said...

Thanks so much for this.

The deterioration of the market is very clear here and I think a lot of people would be surprised to see how far below even 02 (and clearly 00 and 01) we are.

The unravelling is undeniable now, the only questions that remain are how deep and how wide.

9/05/2006 07:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

goverment jobs on increase. taxes on increase, and already above all others. housing market on decline. people leaving due to lifestyle/costs. housing jobs and contractors declining. equities already argueably priced at or above market.

prediction: december thru febuary will be toughest yet (ok, no brainer)... and then NAR will start printing the 'summer season demand forecasted to bring major increases'... and start stating 'july's sales outstrip june by 20%' due to seasonality... even if the numbers in '07 are worse than '06 Y-o-Y,which looks likely. anything to stop this train wreck...

curious

9/05/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

My fiancee is waiting to see if she gets promoted in 2 years. If she doesn't, we are out of NJ. Only problem is, we really don't want to rent for those 2 years, but if we bought something soon in a declining market, we could risk being stuck in NJ.

9/05/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great Post Grimster. Now lets see how the starving grubbers will twist the data?

Starting in june the market fell off a cliff and is in freefall.

BOOOOOOYAAAAAAA

Bob

9/05/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does the declines in june July and August compare to historical sales rates?

Maybe avg sales over last 10 years?

Demand is cratering......Cant't wait to see what it will look like in Jan-March '07. Small ($0)commish checks in the future.

Get used to it grubbers. If ionly you could contain your greed maybe the housing market may not be so over inflated.

9/05/2006 07:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about avg sales from 1992-1994?

May give some indication of the fall off in bad times.

9/05/2006 07:52:00 AM  
Blogger lindsey said...

For those of you who caught the BusinessWeek cover story this week, check out what Realty Times is saying about what is happening in the Lending market.

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20060905_lendersrisky.htm

very scary stuff, The banks don't seem to care about the quality of their loans at all.

9/05/2006 07:54:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I'm not so sure it will play out as quickly as many of you are expecting. Could it? I suppose anything is possible, but will it? Only time can tell.

The last downturn saw 3 years of nominal declines and 3-4 additional years of real declines (inflation adjusted). False bottoms were being called throughout the entire decline.

grim

9/05/2006 07:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The nnj housing market peaked summer of '05 so we have completed the first year of the bear. usually year 2 and 3 are the worst.

Similar to 1990-1992..housing scraped bottom for another 2-3 years afterwards.

Do not let any blabbering realtor fool you.

9/05/2006 08:01:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

grim: I would agree with you about it taking longer than many here might thibk, if it were not for the fact, that this time around we have all the toxic financing, which was not present during the last down turn.

It is much more dangerous this time around, adn I am amazed at how the market appears to haev stopped on a dime. No I think it will be in full decline by Spring 07.

9/05/2006 08:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

QUOTE FROM A REALTOR

"Absolutely, I'll keep them coming. And you are smart to be patient...the
older homes have more cost replacement value then the newer; wood detail
work,character, etc., but as homes sit on the market they definately become
more negotiable. I'll keep you posted on any reductions.
Take Care,
"

9/05/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another Realtor Quote
"JUST SPENT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TRYING TO GET YOU CURRENT INFO....DID
NOT PUNCH IN A PRICE WHEN I DID A CURRENT SEARCH...WHICH RESULTED IN
PROPERTIES THAT HAD MOST OF THE AMENITIES YOU WERE LOOKING FOR, BUT, IN A
HIGHER PRICE BRACKET. THIS SHOULD GIVE YOU AN INDICATION OF WHAT THESE TYPES
OF PROPERTIES ARE MARKETING FOR...SOME HAVE COME DOWN, ALREADY, CLOSE TO
$100k. GIVE ME A CALL TOMORROW, IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS ANY OF THE
INFORMATION I HAVE SENT YOU...THERE SHOULD BE A LOT!!! THINKING OF YOU AND
HOPE THE INFO IS HELPFUL.
"

9/05/2006 08:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree, grim. If you look at that NY Times Shiller graph, historically it looks like each "bust" lasts about as long as the preceding "boom". If that holds true, it could be 2013 before we hit the absolute bottom. Scary.

9/05/2006 08:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone consider housing a bad investment?

You will at the bottom
hehehehe

9/05/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

while the age of adjustable and toxic mortgages is upon us, it's anyone's guess how much impact this will have in our particular region of the world. there's alot of wealth around here so that's one case for not too much damage. also couple that with lenders still pretty much giving money away with little documentation. sure it's tightened up slightly but it's still far too loose.

i'm of the belief we'll see pain from this and other various factors but i believe price-wise we're more likely to see 4-6% inflated adjusted declines over the next 12-36 months than some one time 30% correction. remember a downard 15% inflation adjusted figure 3 years out is still ~25% decline.

9/05/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is an article on recent price reductions on new construction in Montclair.

http://baristanet.typepad.com/home/2006/10/new_homes_slash.html

9/05/2006 09:54:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

From Reuters:

Fed may have to hike, ECB should do so: OECD

The U.S. Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates again to tame inflation and the ECB can afford to hike euro zone rates further now that it has proof of solid economic recovery, the OECD said on Tuesday.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the U.S. central bank had to get to grips with stubbornly high inflation, notably fueled by rising labor costs, and this could prove a more real concern than the spectre of a housing market collapse.

9/05/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger Presidente d'Societa said...

Great stuff, keep it coming.

I nearly jumped into the market a few weeks ago as a first time home buyer.

People have been telling wait until next fall -- except of course the realtors.

Are the people who say the foreclosure market is about go bananas right?

Will Fall 07 be a better time to buy?

9/05/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

richard: Time will tell, but I still think the correction will be swifter than many believe, and by swifter I mean over the next 18 months or so.


I am starting to hear many stories, live stories if you will, of big price declines, and people already over 100k under water, and even more.

Grant it they are just stories, but once people start to see and hear, and not just on TV or in other forms of media, it bececomes much more real.
When you see a house today listed for 500K, on the market for 3 months, that last year sold for 575 in matter of days, it really chills the environment, every other home owner on that block is seeing it as well.

Plus many are reeling from yet another incredible increase in property taxes in many north Jersey towns, 40 to 50% increases in already high property taxes in 3 years is shocking.


I also believe the wealth that you refer to, is in many many cases illusional, fuled by people borrowing from their homes to fuel consumption, that their incomes could not.

9/05/2006 10:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Home Prices Show Sharp Slowdown in 2Q
Tuesday September 5, 11:13 am ET
Home Prices Across the Country Show Sharp Slowdown in 2nd Quarter, Report Shows


WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. home prices continued to rise in the second quarter but showed the biggest slowdown in three decades, federal regulators reported Tuesday.
The figures released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the agency that oversees the big mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provided the latest indication that the housing market is cooling substantially.

Average home prices rose 1.17 percent in the April-June period, compared with 3.65 percent in the second quarter of 2005 -- the biggest decline in price growth since OFHEO started keeping track of home prices in 1975, the new report showed.

The agency cited higher interest rates and rising inventories of homes for sale as possible factors in the slowdown in price growth.

9/05/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grimy:

Thanks for nice graphs....picture's worth thousand words. I noticed in the last graph that warren county has the least number of sales. Is it because warren has rural geography, far from NYC, has no economy and no transportation, etc. or combination of all? I was looking in warren county....particulary, Hackettstown. Any thoughts? Thanks again.
-poigant

9/05/2006 11:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

nice charts,

whew, what a downward slope...

SAS

9/05/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess we can all go home now and retire this blog. (Just kidding Grim)
Those graphs pretty much speak for themselves.
Don't even think about buying anything for at least the next year

9/05/2006 12:30:00 PM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

There is a vacuum being created with the dearth of buyers for the sellers waiting it out and hoping for a high asking price. This 'black hole' is going to suck the heavens out of stratospheric house prices soon. With school season just starting, just where is the urgency for buying going to come from into next spring?

As Green Day says "Wake me up when September ends".....umm, make that next September.

9/05/2006 01:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have not seen the prices go down in Hoboken, what do you think of that area?

9/05/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I have not seen the prices go down in Hoboken, what do you think of that area?


O'RLY??
MLS# Amount Reduced
2604759 -70,000
2604759 -120,000
2616135 -5,000
2616828 -24,900
2617300 -4,000
2617300 -14,000
2619415 -20,000
2621475 -20,000
2622305 -39,000
2622305 -69,000
2622311 -100,000
2622311 -154,000
2624207 -20,000
2624366 -18,000
2624562 -10,000
2624577 -16,000
2624786 -10,900
2624799 -20,000
2624814 -10,000
2624998 -30,000
2625290 -20,000
2627299 -20,000
2628473 -15,500
2631267 -10,000
2623369 -14,000

9/05/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

just saw a guy on from]NOrth american mortgage ,,says ARMS are
still an ok way to go.

9/05/2006 02:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://flippersintrouble.
blogspot.com/

You want some of this Go Ahead Be a Bagholder and listen to some blabbering realtor.

9/05/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are all a bunch of biiter renters..
Housing is not coming down, If there are more houses on the market big deal. That just means there are more houses on the market that buyers will have to buy at those prices...
Stop Crying!

9/05/2006 02:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Poster above me is a prime example of a troll. Do not even humor it.

9/05/2006 02:42:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Housing is not coming down..."

Read 'em and weep:

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5


Buy now and learn all the nuances of:

* negative equity

* being underwater for a decade

* crushing mortgage payments

* foreclosure

9/05/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
You are all a bunch of biiter renters..
Housing is not coming down, If there are more houses on the market big deal. That just means there are more houses on the market that buyers will have to buy at those prices...
Stop Crying!

9/05/2006 03:37:01 PM
Bitter!
HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!

Some of us who are homeowners believe that houses are extremely overvalued. SAAAAWWWWWRREEEEEEEE!

I expect to bleed a few RE tycoons DRY when the time comes again like I did 15 years ago.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

9/05/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
You are all a bunch of biiter renters..
Housing is not coming down, If there are more houses on the market big deal. That just means there are more houses on the market that buyers will have to buy at those prices...
Stop Crying!

9/05/2006 03:37:01 PM

When I no lionger see Jerks like this posting this garbage THEN WE ARE AT BOTTOM. MOST OF THESE PUMPERS WILL BE IN HIBERNATION. THE CHATTER WILL COME TO A HALT.

The winter of 1993 was mighty cold for grubbing "It's Not 2005" sellers and starving realtors. WOW was it slow and houses were just sitting deserted. NO interest NOOOTT""ING. It was great. Unfortunately starving realtors were very harassing. Begging for any scraps.

BABABABABABA

9/05/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another stake into the hearts of the RE clan.

‘The Effect Could Snowball If Sellers Get Panicky’

CNN has this report from a Federal regulator. “New evidence of a housing market slowdown emerged Tuesday - growth in the price of a single family home was just 1.17 percent in the second quarter, a decline of one percentage point from the prior quarter.”

“The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which released the report, said it was the slowest quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 1999 and was the sharpest quarter-to-quarter pullback since OFHEO began the index in 1975.”

“According to Jonathan Miller, an appraiser in New York, ‘The index may not reflect what’s really happening out there.’ He believes that many sellers are holding out for unrealistically high asking prices, and the buyers actually purchasing homes are only the ones willing to pay the higher prices.”

“To close deals with the on-the-fence or reluctant buyers, sellers will have to drop their prices and the index will only then reflect that. The effect could snowball if sellers get a bit panicky and try to sell their properties before prices erode further.”

“‘These data are a strong indication that the housing market is cooling in a very significant way,’ said James Lockhart, OFHEO director. ‘Indeed, the deceleration appears in almost every region of the country.’”

“It’s the fastest deceleration in the index in its three-decade history, OFHEO said.’

9/05/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“Don’t panic. But if you are going to panic, be the first to panic.”

good advice for grubbers.

9/05/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

"If there are more houses on the market big deal, it just means that there are more houses on the market that buyers will have to pay those prices for."

I think I got that quote right.

Gee I am trying to be charitable but, this poster has got to be a compelte moron, but hey, he is a savvy homeowner, scary, just incredibly scary, and sadly this poor fool probably believes it.

Best he go back and re-read what he wrote, perhaps he will then truly understand just how stupid he is.

9/05/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

can we all calm down a bit?

not much has happened - yet - at least in a way we can measure

we know that there is a momentum, but the ironclad proof is going to require some patience

the real issue is that there is no good reason to see conditions stop in their deterioration, so it bodes for some very poor performance in 2006 and 2007

however, we are in a marathon and we just whipped off the first 5 miles REALLY FAST

be proud of that accomplishment and keep a level perspective

booooyaaaa [intentionally lower case]

9/05/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

Grim,

Can I use the plunging sales graph on my blog as is?

David
Bubble Meter Blog

9/05/2006 05:01:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

August NJMLS Bergen County ONLY:

SFH, Condo, Co-op and Townhouses
Year- Med$ - Sold - UnderContract
1995 $216,000 672 612*
1996 $215,000 894 701
1997 $215,000 902 617
1998 $226,000 1029 736
1999 $247,500 1087 779
2000 $270,000 1018 891
2001 $310,500 1138 862
2002 $350,000 1109 844
2003 $390,000 1140 895
2004 $425,000 1066 973
2005 $497,000 1301 986
2006 $500,000 897 833 as of 9/5

Single Family Homes ONLY
Year - Med$ - Sold - UnderContract
1995 $230,000 539 458*
1996 $230,000 726 563
1997 $229,900 730 473
1998 $245,000 806 539
1999 $274,000 838 588
2000 $294,900 768 619
2001 $335,000 871 627
2002 $380,000 838 611
2003 $425,000 865 647
2004 $469,000 777 664
2005 $539,000 933 688
2006 $537,500 660 608 *as of 9/5

*1995 data may be incomplete as I believe this is the first year this data becomes available.

9/05/2006 05:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Arena project divides Brooklyn residents"

http://tinyurl.com/oeumy

SAS

9/05/2006 06:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You are all a bunch of biiter renters"

On the contrary dear blogger,
I happen to have 3 fully paid for homes in this area. Sold 2 others about 2 years ago. Made some nice cash, after I watched people bid up the price. Enough cash that I went out and bought a car that costs more than some make in a year.

Do I wanna see a housing crash?
You bet your ass I do. Because I want to see normal markets, and a sense of reality in people's minds, no more irrational exuberance, and what I really want to see is new people allowed into this market without predatory loans.
I want to see hard working middle class people be able to own a home the old fashion way: nice down payment after they have saved up the cash.

;)
SAS

9/05/2006 06:17:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

David,

Absolutely.

jb

9/05/2006 06:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are all a bunch of biiter renters

Good to hear sellers/realtors complain :)

9/05/2006 08:00:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/viyDAOdzT4wE.mp3

Sep. 5 (Bloomberg) Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene from New York about today's report on U.S. home prices by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (Ofheo), Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the outlook for the housing market. Ofheo said U.S. home-prices grew at their slowest pace in three decades in the second quarter. Home prices increased at a 4.7% annual rate. (Source: Bloomberg)

9/05/2006 08:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anyone , including the bergen
county cats, that think this is
a sellers market is either stupid,
or a moron.

take your pick.

And those teachers in the Northern
Valley want and expect those increases.

Not enough time off.

9/05/2006 08:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can anyone explain how the town
of Carlstadt is going to handle
the 1.9 Million shortfall because
of xandau?

Answer: They raised the homeowner
taxes.

9/05/2006 08:33:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Keep in mind that the HPI is calculated based on conforming mortgages that are purchased by Freddie and Fannie.

6. What transactions are covered in the HPI?

The House Price Index is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. Conforming refers to a mortgage that both meets the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and that does not exceed the conforming loan limit, a figure linked to an index published by the Federal Housing Finance Board. The conforming mortgage loan limit for single-family homes in 2006 is $417,000. Conventional means that the mortgages are neither insured nor guaranteed by the FHA, VA, or other federal government entities. Mortgages on properties financed by government-insured loans, such as FHA or VA mortgages, are excluded from the HPI, as are properties with mortgages whose principal amount exceeds the conforming loan limit. Mortgage transactions on condominiums, cooperatives, multi-unit properties, and planned unit developments are also excluded.

9/05/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been looking in Essex -W. Orange and Bloomfield (mostly) for the whole summer and have seen houses over 400K have their prices slashed, not by much though. But is seems there still a healthy appetite for the good houses that are out there and they are getting snathed up still. It seems when you get up into the 750+ range the house prices are getting slashed more-so than the lower end houses.

It's hard to see how this bubble will play out. Especially in and are close to Manhattan-direct trains close by. Some of these houses in the $400K range are pretty damn good, I am just not sure how much they can fall. It would seem a total steal to find one for under 300K 2 years from now. Maybe in the 325-350 range... can anyone comment on this?

-cs

9/06/2006 02:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hunterdon County Sampling

MLS CD DOM LP SP
Clinton Twp
2258323 6-27 1 589.9 589.9
2286925 8-15 5 579.9 566
2285770 8-18 25 559.9 554.9
2254342 6-29 35 1.295 1.250
Clinton Town
2296611 8-22 19 509.9 500
2288168 8-16 10 498 498
2288844 8-18 17 469.9 469.9

9/06/2006 03:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

cs,

Thats fine and dandy until there is an economic slowdown.
When this happens, look out....
minimum 30% reductions across the board.

SAS

9/06/2006 06:26:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Some of these houses in the $400K range are pretty damn good..."


Have a realtor send you listings for all closed sales under $400K for the last 5 years in the towns which you are interested.

A real eye opener.

9/06/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks folks.

unrealtor, do you think someone welling you a house would be willing to give you that info?

9/06/2006 01:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i am so confussssssed, realtors chew my brains, sellers don't budge and me no biting yet, get real, the market is going down bad - real bad -

am wondering were i to buy now and sell in 3-4 years from now would i be able to make anything - i think not - may have to hang in for another 5, bwaaaaaah

9/16/2006 09:48:00 AM  

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