Friday, November 11, 2005

Slowdowns Reported Across The Nation

How many readers have ridden Freefall at Great Adventure? You know the part when you hit the top of the structure, pause, and then hear the signal? That's exactly where the North Jersey market is right now...



It would seem that the froth seen in some metro areas is more nationwide than the experts predicted. We all knew it, and I think they did too, they just wouldn't acknowledge it in the press. While there may have a handful of areas not affected(the fly-over states, etc), believe me when I say we are sitting right on top of a whopper. Many of us have noticed similar trends locally in Northern NJ. Inventory continues to creep upward going into the traditionally slow winter season and price reductions are becoming expected.

The Week In Review:

Housing market cools ... along with weather

Now the Phoenix market has cooled substantially, and there are signs the housing boom is fading in many parts of the country. The question is whether the slowdown is the beginning of a potentially damaging decline in sales activity and prices predicted by some experts, or whether the market will regain momentum again in the spring as it often does.

Housing Market Cooling, Data Say

New data released yesterday show that in the past year, home sales in the Washington region have declined sharply, the inventory of unsold homes is up significantly, and prices have flattened and, in some cases, fallen.

Kauai Median Home Prices Fall $100,000

The median price of Kauai home, which spiked to $750,000 in September, fell back to $652,500 in October.

Toll Bros at risk of housing slowdown

The luxury home builder said it will cut its fiscal 2006 earnings forecast and will build fewer homes next year because of softening demand and tighter building restrictions, raising concerns of a housing slowdown.

Housing forecast: downturn until '07

The Massachusetts housing market will slump over the next two years, with prices falling slightly, then flattening before resuming modest appreciation, according to an economic forecast released yesterday.

Home prices leveling off

Home buyers may have a little more wiggle room these days.

Housing prices are leveling off, the supply of homes is going up, and the demand for new homes is dropping.


The Fading Housing Frenzy

A rapid price decline can bring equal parts pain and pleasure to homeowners. A buyer who used a creative mortgage plan to purchase an expensive house, while paying on the interest only, may find their property not appreciating fast enough to sell before their mortgage rates increase. Many sellers and realtors are already offering discounts, gifts, and other tricks to get deals closed.

Houses languish on market

Sales of existing homes in Metro Detroit fell 7 percent in October and houses languished on the market for an average of 101 days as buyers retrenched in the face of more bad economic news.

Housing slowdown signs pop up

Investors trying to shed their lots offer incentives while builders competing with them slash prices.

In Ballantrae, Pasco County's bestselling neighborhood of new homes in the past year, signs of a real estate boom could be starting to sputter. And that could be good news for house hunters put off by high prices and poor selection for the past couple of years.

Valley's housing frenzy cooling

Metropolitan Phoenix home prices dipped slightly in October, signaling the housing market has likely peaked. The median price of an existing house inched down 1 percent in October to $259,900, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University's Polytechnic campus. The median Valley home price was $263,000 in September.

New signs of decline in U.S. housing

"Some kind of adjustment has to happen," said Gene Huang, chief economist of FedEx. "Home prices have been growing so fast for so long, outstripping income growth for many years." Over the long term, Huang said, house prices do not rise much more quickly than incomes.

Housing market loses steam

Fewer purchase offers in Oct. hint buyers have upper hand.

Editorial:A rise in foreclosures

Don't look now, but that whistling sound you're hearing is the air leaking out of the housing bubble.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

9 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

So what happens to areas that demand top wages due to a high cost of living?

The jobs leave in search of lower wages.

Nissan moving North American headquarters from California

Nissan Motor Co. said Thursday it is moving its North American headquarters and nearly 1,300 jobs from California to the Nashville area to take advantage of the low cost of doing business in the Southeast.

Of course it wasn't just wages that pushed them to move, it was a number of issues. However, I'm sure high taxes and wages played a significant role. As home prices ratched skyward, wages need to increase to match. So what is a company looking for the competitive edge going to do? Move.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

11/11/2005 02:48:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Here come the natural gas hikes..

Homeowners face new hike in natural gas -
Utilities seek rate increases up to 29 percent


The squeeze is on.

-grim

11/11/2005 02:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do the MLS agents manipulate data ?

I saw one listing in Berkeley Heights, NJ (nice town) that was listed at $574K, after a month got reduced to $554 K and then went into contract (GSMLS 2107553). Now the MLS apparently says it sold at $656K !! That doesn't make any sense at all to me. Could that be someone trying to manipulate the MLS ? O course the county will publish the data, but thats probably months away.

11/11/2005 03:34:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

No I don't think so. It's possible that it sold that high. I also wouldn't rule out an honest mistake like a keying error either.

I usually try to get my hands on the tax records to verify the selling price, however, you'll likely need to wait a while for it.

You can always call the listing agent and inquire about it..

grim

11/11/2005 04:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim, thanks. The reason I'm doubtful that it sold at that price is that it was at 579K for a month, then dropped to 554K. Then it went into contract in a week. I find it very hard to believe that it got a frantic bidding war that pushed the price up 100 K in that time.

Also, I saw the house in an open house. Reasonable area of town, but its a 3bed/2bath 50 year old ranch. In that town, there are far better houses in the 650K range (4 beds and up).

I think a keying error is most likely (656 K instead of 556K).

11/11/2005 04:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

leveling off , flat prices NO WAY...
COLLAPSE!

Can;t wait to be on the other side of the trend abusing a few realtors and sellers.
Last 2 years sellers and realtors were pricks and derserve the pounding they are getting.

11/11/2005 07:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i am planning to buy a home, but no hurry to do so. I would be appreciated for any advice on when do I know is the right time to buy. i.e. mortgage rate going back down again, after decline in housing price, etc.. thanks!

11/12/2005 07:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

If you can wait, I'd suggest that you wait. But you need to weigh that decision yourself, all I can provide is my outlook on the market. And at this point in time, I'm going to wait, likely until next summer at the earliest.

Why are you concerned about low mortgage rates?

grim

11/12/2005 08:05:00 PM  
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