Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Northern NJ Weekly Residential Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
2/8 - 12,233
2/15 - 12,376 (1.2% Increase)

NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
2/8 - 5,865
2/15 - 5,960 (1.6% Increase)

MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
2/8 - 1,990
2/15 - 2,054 (3.2% Increase)

Inventory stats will be posted every week, prior to noon on Wednesday. The numbers will include all 3 of the Northern NJ MLS systems, GSMLS, NJMLS, and the Hudson MLS. If someone would like to provide me with numbers from the FSBO systems, I'll gladly include them as well. These numbers do not include multifamily homes, only SFH, Condos and Coops. Realize that this does make an impact in certain areas of North Jersey with high densities of multifamily (Hudson, Passaic, etc).

13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've been watching the houses sit longer, and the prices drop, but the homes with good schools and good commutes into NYC are still selling.

2/15/2006 12:22:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Are you a broker/agent or in the industry? Or is the observation anecdotal? It's hard to put any kind of weight on your statement without knowing.

grim

2/15/2006 12:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anth said...

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/Business/Federal_Reserve

Bernanke will keep hiking the rates. Doesn't look like he's afraid of the RE consequences..

2/15/2006 12:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
I am not anon 12:22. I am a buyer waiting the prices drop. However, will you ask the same questions if anon 12:22 said homes are not selling?

2/15/2006 12:58:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 12:58,

We are broker/agent friendly here. I had a few reasons for asking..

The first, simply because the statement "homes with good schools and good commutes into NYC are still selling" sounds like information someone in the industry would have access to, not the average joe.

I have a good relationship with a number of brokers and agents, many of which have been cultivated through the blog. Maybe Anon @ 12:22 could have been another one, so I asked. It's hard to take the pulse of the market without having contacts that 'walk the beat'.

The other reason I asked was because I'm seeing a different trend in sales.

To me, it doesn't look like the 'mix' has shifted to favor one town or another. That just doesn't look to be the case at all. Homes in towns with terrible schools are selling, towns nowhere near NYC mass transit are selling. Like I said, the 'mix' looks to be the same, only with reduced volumes. That looks to be true across the board.

Homes are still selling. Period.

I don't think there has been a shift to favor good schools or good commutes into NYC. If there has, it's not readily obvious in the data I'm looking at.

That aside. Data at a town level is pretty volatile, I'm not sure how you could even make a comparison month to month at that level. It's even hard to see trends clearly unless you aggregate up to the county level.

Look at the Q4 Otteau reports for what I mean by volatile at the town level.

The Otteau Report

grim

2/15/2006 01:34:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

my own research in the nicer towns of morris and union counties show the overpriced houses REGARDLESS of where they're located are for the most part still sitting. some have moved but that's after reductions. new inventory is few and far between. i think sellers are waiting for mar/apr and for the moment sitting back and seeing how current inventory does.

2/15/2006 02:29:00 PM  
Blogger bubble disciple said...

From what I've noticed, the homes that are selling quickly are the ones whose prices have been reduced approx 10% from what equivalent houses would have been listed at the peak last Fall.

2/15/2006 02:40:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Here are today's sales from the GSMLS hotsheet.

Town/# Homes Sold
Fairlawn 1
Glen Rock 1
Irvington 3
Livingston 2
Maplewood 2
Montville 1
Morristown 1
Parsippany 1
Rockaway 2
Paterson 1
Bedminster 1
Branchburg 1
Franklin 3
Hillsborough 2
Byram 1
Hopatcong 1
Clark 1
Elizabeth 1
Summit 1
Westfield 1
Phillipsburg 1
Washington Twp 1

grim

2/15/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Houses are sitting there in NYC commute areas. Anyone saying they are is wrong. And prices are coming off asking prices, but we know asking prices is one BIG SCAM!

2/15/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim wrote:

"Are you a broker/agent or in the industry? Or is the observation anecdotal? It's hard to put any kind of weight on your statement without knowing."

I'm a hopeful buyer, with a solid income, who is frustrated and unable to get into the markets I describe.

2/15/2006 03:25:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Relax. You need to sit back and have patience. This is an illiquid market brimming with emotion.

As much as I dislike Lereah, this market does move like much like a ship. Changes take time to manifest. It is going to take time for sellers to capitulate.

grim

2/15/2006 03:52:00 PM  
Anonymous looking said...

I am also a hopeful buyer, feeling a bit pressured by the professionals helping me at times.

I am wondering how much pressure - among buyers - there will be during this spring season which i've been warned about. I was told when I first started (two months ago) If I could buy 'something' in the next 3-4 weeks I'd be better off.

And, here I still sit on the sideline. Any guess as to the spring 'frenzy' I'm being told about or what it's been like in previous spring markets?

Maybe put my purchase of til after school gets in session?

2/15/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey grim... how about posting a chart to show the rise in listings as well as a chart to show the rate of price reductions?

2/17/2006 04:49:00 PM  

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