Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Northern New Jersey Among Riskiest Real Estate Markets

The PMI Group's Winter 2006 Economic Real Estate Trends Report has been released and is available at:

Winter 2006 Economic Real Estate Trends (PDF)

Northern New Jersey again ranks among the Top 20 Riskiest Real Estate Markets..

Top 20 Riskiest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
1 - San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
2 - Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
3 - Boston-Quincy, MA
4 - Nassau-Suffolk, NY
5 - Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA
6 - Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
7 - Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, CA
8 - Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
9 - Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
10 - San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
11 - San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA
12 - Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA
13 - Edison, NJ
14 - New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ
15 - Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
16 - Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL
17 - Newark-Union, NJ-PA
18 - Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
19 - Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI
20 - Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

18 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Please help me.. how is 2/3 bedroom ranch with a galley kitchen worth $729? They couldn't even take a good picture of the place

http://newjersey.craigslist.
org/rfs/139244721.html

3/08/2006 10:00:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Can someone recommend any town in NJ that has Blue Ribbon school district but where prices are not going to Bust in next few years !!! I would like to buy a house, but don't want to pay high. Personally, since I work from home, I don't need to be near major metro area.

3/08/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

3/08/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

it is only worth what a real seller (not some fishing expedition)is willing to take and the highest price a willing buyer is willing to pay.

It really is this simple. But lately many buyers probably should have their heads examined buying houses they can't afford economically but through some risky mortgage scheme loan.

Home prices in this area are overvalued by about a 1/3.
Based on incomes to rental rates, incomes to mtg rates and base line annuallized appreciation of 5% in housing prices.

3/08/2006 11:48:00 AM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

to anon @ 10:00 AM,

It doesn't worth $729K. I would not take anything from craigslist too serious. Anyone can post properties there, and he can price them anyway he wants.

CC

3/08/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

to anon @ 10:00 AM,

It doesn't worth $729K. I would not take anything from craigslist too serious. Anyone can post properties there, and he can price them anyway he wants.

CC

3/08/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

Shailesh Gala,

Can you tell me what Blue Ribbon School District mean?

I have an argument with my co-worker regarding Blue Ribbon. He bought a house in East Brunswick. E Brunswick apparently is a Blue Ribbon School District. Houses there seem to be not too expensive relatively speaking. I did some research in NJ Magazine School Listing (it ranks NJ school districts every year). And East Brunswick barely made it to top 75!!!! He couldn't believe this ranking, he pretty said E Brunswick School District is top 5 in the state......................

I am just confused about the merit of Blue Ribbon. And what does it exactly mean???

The NJ Magazine ranking seem to discriminate larger school districts. I know ppl live in Marlboro and E Brunswick, both districts have 2000-3000 student body HS's. They claim their school systems are top 10 in Jersey and ranked by other media (i can't recall). But these districts barely made to it to top 75???? Can anyone comment on it.

For your question, "where prices are not going to Bust in next few years !!!" If you believe there is a housing bubble in this area like most ppl in this blog, then no area in this region is immune from this bust.

I hope this helps.

CC

3/08/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wouldn't put too much weight on "Blue Ribbon" schools. The school applies to be considered for that award and then works hard to make changes and whatever necessary just to win the award. After the review is over, you don't know if the improvements will be there forever...

3/08/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

anon @ 12:35 PM,

thx for the info for Blue Ribbon.

So, the "Blue Ribbon Board" don't inspect every school for its awards. The school districts invite them to come, then the "board" decides if these districts qualify for the awards!!!

Sounds like conflict of interest to me. If the board see anything they don't like, they can probably ask the district to implement certain changes and give the district the award anyway.

One thing for true, every East Brunswick realtor say they have a award-winning school district...hahahhahaha

3/08/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Can someone recommend any town in NJ that has Blue Ribbon school district but where prices are not going to Bust in next few years !!!"

Prices are going to decline everywhere.


"I would like to buy a house, but don't want to pay high. Personally, since I work from home, I don't need to be near major metro area."

Then I would recommend Princeton. Great schools, great properties (nice size lots, nice architecture, nice community), but the commute is a bit rough.

$600K will get you into a nice home there.

3/08/2006 01:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Please help me.. how is 2/3 bedroom ranch with a galley kitchen worth $729? They couldn't even take a good picture of the place

http://newjersey.craigslist.
org/rfs/139244721.html

One acre of land is the real driver on the price. They will probably get $650.

3/08/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Many people entirely disregard socioeconomic factors when looking at school rankings..

Do you think it is coincidence that the best ranked school districts are typically in the highest income areas?

Take two scenarios:

1) Wealthy family. Stay home mom is well educated and doesn't need to work. Parents know the value of education and are dedicated to the education of their children. Parents are able to regularly attend school events, after school events, sports, etc. No expense is spared when it comes to education. Mom picks up the kids at school, ensures they do their homework and study, etc.

2) Lower income family determined to give their kids the best. Parents must both work to be able to afford to live in the same area as Family #1. Parents both work in NYC, thus are out of the house most of the day. Parents are unable to attend many events, kids come home to an empty house. Expensive after school activities are out of the question.

Which children are more likely to do well?

3/08/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Blogger landgrab said...

Anyone else surprised to see no Florida in the top 15?

And how has Miami suddenly slipped to 20? I could have sworn they were top 3 the last time something like this was released ...

3/08/2006 02:19:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

I was in camp #2 although the neighborhood was pretty lower middle class, and I did quite well for myself considering dinner for me most of the time was $5 left on the table so I could order in Chinese. We lived paycheck to paycheck. My favorite meal was an entire package of bacon and Welch’s frozen grape juice pops [at least I got vitamin C]. I took the subway alone from age 11, and commuted to school for over an hour each way.

I knew my parents cared even though they didn't necessarily have the time of focus to give. I was motivated not to let them down because they worked so hard.

By the way, scholarship aside, it is 100x easier for a child from #2 [when #2 is in a bad zip code] to be accepted into a good school/college.

#1 are a dime a dozen, hence the bar is substantially higher
#2 creates “diversity”

Obviously, I am biased. However, I am involved with alumni contacts for Cornell University, and I believe it gives me a unique perspective on backgrounds and circumstances. My wife also worked briefly in the Ridgewood and Princeton school districts.

chicago [via Flushing Queens – no I am NOT for it]

3/08/2006 02:38:00 PM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

Grim,

I agree with you on the school analysis. And I also notice a lot of ppl treat it as an luxury item. They try to "out buy" each other in terms of school ranking.

And I also know a lot of ppl buy into these high rank school districts. And assume they don't have to partake in their children's lives because their children "should" do well.

However we can also acknowledge that part of the housing prices is driven by school district ranking.


CC

3/08/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger JMW977 said...

Does anyone know exactly what towns New York-Wayne-White Plains NY-NJ and Newark-Union, NJ-PA encompass?

I've seen this in real estate reports for years, and it has never made much sense to me.

Thanks in advance!

3/08/2006 10:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry to seem ignorant, but I am in this area. What is meant by a Risky Real Estate Market? Risk of decline in value? Most of the areas listed have been inflated for years--Boston,
SF, NYC, etc.

3/10/2006 02:42:00 PM  
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4/19/2006 12:12:00 AM  

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