Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
2/22 - 12,597
3/08 - 13,094

NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
2/22 - 6,078
3/08 - 6,415

MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
2/22 - 2,078
3/08 - 2,100

* Since I was away last week I did not get data for March 1st. The data above represents a two week change.

Inventory stats will be posted every week, prior to noon on Wednesday. The numbers will include all 3 of the Northern NJ MLS systems, GSMLS, NJMLS, and the Hudson MLS. If someone would like to provide me with numbers from the FSBO systems, I'll gladly include them as well. These numbers do not include multifamily homes, only SFH, Condos and Coops. Realize that this does make an impact in certain areas of North Jersey with high densities of multifamily (Hudson, Passaic, etc).

19 Comments:

Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Courier News has article titled, "With new Hillsboro housing comes worry".

http://www.c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060308/NEWS/603080311

According to article, The minimum lot size in the 11.15-acre development would be 17,500 square feet, and the average home would cost about $650,000, according to the application.

Why in the world one House should need 11.15 acre land???? Isn't that more damage to environment?

I firmly believe, the Zoning laws in some of these towns have gone too far. It only protects the Residents & Rich folks who can control the town council.

3/08/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

This article is from Philly Newspaper.

Squeezed out at the Shore

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/13095333.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

It is for south jersey counties, but it is worth reading. It is true irony that some cities have vacancies in school because folks with kids cannot afford house there.

3/08/2006 11:44:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

I think they meant that the total size of the new development will be 11.5 acres. This 11.5 acre area will be subdivided into smaller lots with a minimum of 17,500 square feet.

At 17,500 ft3 (0.4 acres), this development can fit 28 homes at the minimum size (not counting streets, right-of-ways, etc).

3/08/2006 11:46:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

It is true irony that some cities have vacancies in school because folks with kids cannot afford house there.

This is a really big problem. I know that California has been dealing with this for some time. I know that some areas in CA are also having a tough time finding employees to fill blue-collar jobs.

I know many towns in NJ are having trouble finding volunteer firefighters and EMTs. Long time residents are leaving to “cash out” or trade-up. The new residents don’t really have a strong connection to the new town and are less likely to get involved in the community.

3/08/2006 12:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Howdy, been noticing something I hope you can comment on Grim (or anyone else who cares to!) I sold my co-op last year, and have been noticing prices in my brooklyn neighborhood for co-ops and condos go DOWN significantly - my place had few amenities but it looks like I could move right back to a larger place, with a roof deck, new kitchen etc, - for the same price!Also astonishing is Manhattan drops - never thought I could live there with same price and Sq footage as what I sold for in brooklyn but lo and behold I can if I wanted! - also co-op prices seem to have dropped in the area where I rent - Grim did I read somewhere here where co-ops and condos are sort of the canary in the coal mine? If so, she's singin....

3/08/2006 01:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

here's a good one

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-poll8mar08,0,1455490.story?coll=la-home-headlines

3/08/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Anonymous NortherNJ_Searcher said...

Home loan applications rise despite higher rates


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060308/bs_nm/economy_mortgages_dc

3/08/2006 01:50:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Home loan applications are up, but it's due to refinancing activity.

Purchase applications, on the other hand, fell 0.4% this week.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

3/08/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

In theory in an open market, as housing becomes more expensive and forces lower paid professionals out (teachers, nurses, police), eventually services decline, the standard of living declines and the value of housing in the area drops. Trouble is, these shifts can take a whole generation to complete.

3/08/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

I agree. In theory, when Demand increases, more Supply becomes available to meet the demand.

In practice, at least in NJ, Supply is constrained by various factors such as land availability, infrastructure requirement etc... On top of that you have towns & residents opposing any new development. The supply side restrictions along with low Interest rates & better employment resulted in Drastic price rises of last few years.

Hence while demand has increased supply has not been allowed to increase.

3/08/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

"...did I read somewhere here where co-ops and condos are sort of the canary in the coal mine? If so, she's singin...."

Yes, for several reasons:

- In a condo complex you can have a number of similar units for sale at one time. This creates competition among sellers and makes for a more efficient market. With SFHs, differences in personal taste, location, condition can make home-on-home price comparisons more difficult. Multiple sales of similar units help make pricing more “accurate” and transparent for condos. When the market changes direction, it will readily show in the condo market.
- Second, because of the lower barrier to entry, condos are more likely to be purchased by speculators. Unlike true homeowners, speculators will jump ship as soon as the market goes bad. This further exacerbates the situation described above.
- Lastly, condos are often seen as an “temporary substitute” for a SFH. Many people buy condos because they can’t afford a SFH, but intend to trade up when conditions improve.

3/08/2006 04:41:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

In theory in an open market, as housing becomes more expensive and forces lower paid professionals out (teachers, nurses, police).

I actually look at this from a different perspective. The problem is that salaries for teachers and police are based less on market forces and more on union contracts. Cops actually make very good money in North Jersey (suburbs) because their salaries are negotiated based on the cost of living. After all, we are a heavily Democratic/pro union state. This makes property taxes go up, which in turn makes the cost of living go up.

3/08/2006 04:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

About the comment on declining Manhattan prices, I have been following it closely since I sold my Manhattan condo last Spring. One of the broker's has a monthly market report. According to the January report (here: http://tinyurl.com/laa6p)
The median price of a Manhattan apartment declined from the peak of $831,000 in 6/05 to $750,000 in 1/06, a drop of 10%

I find it amazing that you never read this anywhere, least of all in the NY Times. Most articles only quote y-o-y prices. I still see articles about maybe a price drop of 5% or 10% in the future. Well, the future is now.

As for buying in Manhattan, I would wait 3 to 5 years at least. It took 15 years for a bottom in Japan after a 60% to 80% drop.

3/08/2006 07:42:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Shailesh gala said:...Hence while demand has increased supply has not been allowed to increase.

Actually, 2005 was a record or near-record year for the number of building permits issued in most North Jersey counties. At the same time, population growth has been slowing. As an extreme example, Hudson County had a record number of building permits issued in 2005, but actually lost population in 2004 (05 stats will be released in April).

It's true that demand is high, but demand is incidental. It is a symptom of the psychology that is driving this bubble. It is not a result of strong fundamentals.

3/08/2006 11:18:00 PM  
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