Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Soaring Energy Puts Jersey At Risk

From the Star Ledger:
Soaring energy costs puts Jersey at higher risk
BY JAMES W. HUGHES AND JOSEPH J. SENECA

"Sharp surges in energy prices have been associated with three of the last four recessions in the United States. The first of these was the national downturn of 1974-75, which for New Jersey turned out to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. Its severity was linked to a state economy still highly dependent on an aging, inefficient, energy-intensive manufacturing sector. That recession helped precipitate a manufacturing employment hemorrhage that persists to the present day. In the 1970s, manufacturing quickly migrated to lower-cost Sunbelt states."

"Subsequently, the recession of 1980-82 -- the nation's worst recession since the Great Depression -- and the 1990-91 recession also occurred when there were spikes in the price of oil and related energy sources. Only the most recent recession of 2001, caused by the bursting of the information-technology investment and stock market bubbles, was unrelated to energy."

"If an energy cost related recession once again strikes the nation, New Jersey will be particularly hard hit due to several factors. One of the most critical is that higher energy costs will force businesses and people to reduce other costs. New Jersey is already a high-cost place to do business, and a high-cost place to live. This competitive disadvantage has led to population out-migration to more affordable states. Similarly, white-collar corporate America, facing intense global competition and the imperative to control costs, is now directing its high-end investment and expansion largely outside of New Jersey."

"But what are the effects of high-energy prices on individuals and households? Shouldn't New Jersey's high income and wealth provide a better-than-average buffer against soaring energy costs?"

"On the surface, the answer would seem to be yes. According to the Census Bureau's 2004 American Community Survey, New Jersey's median family income continued to rank number one among the 50 states. Our median family income was 38 percent higher than that of the nation. However, New Jersey also ranked number one in median housing costs (for owner occupied units with a mortgage) and our housing costs were 52 percent higher than the national average. Thus, our high-income advantage is largely offset by much higher costs of living."

"Expansions in the United States do not have a natural lifespan the Federal Reserve usually murders them. As soaring energy costs raise the specter of higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to raise interest rates. Thus, the effect of higher energy costs directly on the consumer and the economy, and the secondary impact via higher interest rates, certainly places the national economy at more risk as we move into 2007. If an energy-related recession comes, the impacts will not be pretty in New Jersey."

64 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...38 percent higher than that of the nation. However, New Jersey also ranked number one in median housing costs (for owner occupied units with a mortgage) and our housing costs were 52 percent higher than the national average."

38% higher for incomes but 52% higher than national average means BUBBLE prices must come down.

I wonder if this includes property taxes too? If not the disparity is that nuch greater!

5/09/2006 11:35:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

It is not just New Jerseyans at risk. How about all those PA folks that commute to various NJ locations. How will the businesses in NJ be affected as their already financially stressed employees with their "extreme commutes" Newark alone has thousands of PA residents working there. Imagine that commute, pick your poison I-80 or I-78.

5/09/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe that a majority of the households in New Jersey can withstand the gas and energy prices at the current levels.

After living in Europe for several years, gas prices here are very reasonable at $3.00/gal. People to need to feel the pain before they actually do something about it. Asking the government for help is not the answer.

5/09/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

BTW, in the 2000 census the total of PA commuters to Morris County was over 21,000. And I am sure the number is only going up.

5/09/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

After living in Europe for several years, gas prices here are very reasonable at $3.00/gal.

Yes, but gas has always been expensive in Europe. The infrastructure has been set up around high gas prices. Mass transit is good and cars are generally small and fuel-efficient, with many diesel cars. Sure, the US would eventually adapt to $3 gas, but the transition would be painful.

5/09/2006 12:29:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Our urban form is generally dipersed in the US. Parts of the NY metro would weather it better than most of the country. The urban core of NJ is well networked but I keep thinking of PA FB's driving to work all that distance.

Although I am surprised by some cities that you just don't think of as having good transit. Dallas was a big shock, I visited the Plano station and their 1000 car lot was packed. Atlanta has an excellent subway that goes to the airport as does DC.

5/09/2006 12:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gas prices are cheap IMO. Take a look at all the damn SUV's on the road. And people continue to buy them as oil prices go up.

When you start to see a decline in the number of SUV's on the road then you'll know prices are having an effect.

5/09/2006 12:52:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Actually gas prices are on par with historic highs from the early 80's. As for SUV sales they have stopped selling, that is why Ford and GM are hurting.

5/09/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Atlanta has an excellent subway that goes to the airport as does DC.


I agree, Atlanta has a great metro sysem know as MARTA, but the problem there is the southerner's love affair with their automobile. Also, MARTA has a higher incident (crime) level than NJ/NY Transit--maybe they need more MARTA police, perhaps another reason why it is not as popular with the suburbanities.

5/09/2006 01:08:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Chicago has a tremendous mass transit system, but EVERYONE still owns a car.

The only U.S. City I know that has a true no-car culture in NYC.

I didn't have a driver's license until I was 25.

In my high school graduating class of 186, only three people had a license at the time.

5/09/2006 01:36:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Agreed crime is higher, but it is a subway not a commuter service line. I think the perception is that crime is higher than it already is. I lived in Roswell and drove to North Springs station all the time and especially when I flew. $3/ day parking fee and you get dropped off right at the baggage check in counter.

5/09/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

CF,

I knew people from Chicago who lived W/O a car. I imagine they are to an extent the only other city that would compare but they love their cars there too.

5/09/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would love to give up my car, but then I would have to live in Hoboken, Jersey City, or NYC--all unaffordable at the moment.

5/09/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone familiar with Plainfield? A lot of spacious housing at great prices, or am I missing something?

Spill the beans!

5/09/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Blogger jhawk92 said...

Plainfield,

From a amateur NJ historian and Scotch Plain resident:

"Plainfield was once a very well-to-do city with a lot of great businesses around the turn of the century. Now, there are some nice houses in the northern section near Scotch Plains. But schools are not great and rest of the town is sketchy, at best."

5/09/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Are you familiar with the area around Plainfield?

It is called the "Queen City". It had a glorious heydey when it was home to many factory owners who built huge Victorians. After the riots in Newark it too got stigmatized. It is now a place where those houses have been cut up into 3 and 4 family units filled alot of poor people.

I hear there is a gay section.

5/09/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From a amateur NJ historian and Scotch Plain resident:

"Plainfield was once a very well-to-do city with a lot of great businesses around the turn of the century. Now, there are some nice houses in the northern section near Scotch Plains. But schools are not great and rest of the town is sketchy, at best."


Do you think it has potential to move forward again? I hear there are some "pioneers" out there looking to do "great" things--whatever that is.

...filled alot of poor people
I hear there is a gay section.


Poor people do not bother me, but criminals do. As for gays, I'm gay myself so I guess family is near by. I'll have to check it out!

I keep hearing the good, so it might be worth a look.

5/09/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

NJ has it's fair share of once great towns that have fallen into disrepair.

Really makes you wonder. Just because an area is "tops" now, what makes you think it is going to stay there?

How many "prestige" shoppers would live in Newark? What about Paterson? Plainfield?

I think you would get laughed at if you suggested it.

However, take a ride around Branch brook park in Newark.. It's surrounded by mansions that would command multimillion dollar prices if they were located elsewhere. Eastside Park in Paterson, more mansions. Same goes for areas of Plainfield, Passaic, etc.

Who is to say the same fate won't befall Summit, Montclair, Short Hills, etc?

grim

5/09/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I don't know the crime stats. Maybe the FBI site has them. Like many urban areas they tend to have higher property crime, as for violent crime, I don't know.

5/09/2006 02:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think I'll checkout Nutley :-)

5/09/2006 02:31:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Who is to say the same fate won't befall Summit, Montclair, Short Hills, etc?"


Newark was hit by riots in the 1960s, and they destroyed everything.

I guess a riot could happen in Summit?

5/09/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Interesting piece in Newsweek on extreme commuting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12438812/site/newsweek/

5/09/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Disinvestment leading to disrepair is more likely..

grim

5/09/2006 03:20:00 PM  
Blogger Boycott Bob said...

GAS PRICES TOO HIGH!!!

Ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT GAS!!!

GAS WILL BURST!! Prices to high!!

Booooyaaaaaaaaa


Bob

5/09/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

plainfield is nasty. alot of crime and the schools are the pits. if you don't have kids maybe you want to be a trendsetter but i wouldn't. if you look at prices in a town and wonder why are they so cheap, there's usually a reason. plainfield ain't no meat packing district.

5/09/2006 03:40:00 PM  
Anonymous trroll said...

anon 3:15,

"Poor people do not bother me, but criminals do."


Poverty usually means higher crime rate.

For more info on crime rates you can go to www.city-data.com. They only thing is - their stats are usually outdated by few years.

5/09/2006 03:53:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Well timely article. I was just exploring ways to reach city from central jersey. The idea is to drive to a station, park the car and take train. Recently (I guess few years now), they added new station near Newark airport which is connected by Airtran. This I think was good so someone flying to Newark can take train and go to city.

So, I was looking for this station as I thought it would be great to park there. To my surprise, there is no parking, and not even a road to this station. Hence I looked it up on Google map. Here is the link,

Google Map

This station is so close to Rte 78, I wonder wouldn't it be better to have a large parking lot near by from Rte 78, where one can park and take train ?? That would make commute to NY so much better.

Also I personally would like if they extend PATH train to this station, that would make it easy to go to Downtown as well as midtown.

In my mind this is no brainer. Why they would build a station, but no road or parking around it !!!

5/09/2006 04:04:00 PM  
Blogger jhawk92 said...

anon/Plainfield...

Check out this site...handy quick list of information and stats about a community...

Not sure if it had crime below county level though...but a very handy site in general for checking out towns...

http://www.hometownlocator.com/City/Plainfield-New-Jersey.cfm

5/09/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Blogger Boycott Bob said...

shailesh gala -
please learn english before posting again.

Bob

5/09/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Shailesh, have a look at parking in Jersey City, and taking the PATH actross the river into NY City.

I think monthly parking in JC would run about $200. There is also the light rail from Liberty State Park to Exchange Place, which may be a bit cheaper.

5/09/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

let's help this idiot out...

put an "a" wherever you see a star.

put a "the" wherever you see a +

. The idea is to drive to a station, park the car and take * train. Recently (I guess * few years now), they added * new station near Newark airport which is connected by Airtran. This I think was good so someone flying to Newark can take * train and go to + city.

In my mind this is * no brainer.

Replace
Why they would build a station, but no road or parking around it !!!

with
Why would they build a station, but no road or parking around it !!!

5/09/2006 04:17:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Gas prices at $3.00 a gallon vs $2.00 a gallon.

Crappy houses at $600,000+ in a half-decent neighborhood.

Which bothers me more?

5/09/2006 04:25:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

5/09/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Bob: You are just jealous that you did not come up with the idea.

As far as English, I don't think you have done similar check for all the posting. Why are only mine? I would say please do that for all the post as I have never seen the word BOOOOOOOOOYA in dictionary as well.

5/09/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Newark Airport Station is intended purely as a rail link for the airport. If you are in a car, you drive to the airport. If you are going to NYC, you drive to another station.

The big PATH parking lot/deck, I believe, is adjacent to the Harrison PATH Station.

5/09/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Harsh stuff Bob.

5/09/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

chicagofinance: I understand the use with Airport, but wouldn't it be better to have something that is dual purpose ( for folks coming airport as well as local folks who can drive to it ).

Also there is lot of traffic driving all the way to Harrison or Jersey city, as the stations are not close to freeway. Also parking is hastle. You spend more gas driving through traffic than on freeway. If you see google map link, there is decent amount of land where good size parking lot could be built.

I think this is really win-win for both locals & air travellers.

Metro: I would like to see your opinion as Urban Planner.

5/09/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger Boycott Bob said...

gala -
are you even familiar with the dictionary? english dictionary that is...

You are just jealous that you did not come up with the idea.

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
that is the most juvenile statement i've EVER seen!!

you think too highly of yourself. why do you people have this superiority complex? you feel like you're the most intelligent people in the world...and you can't even speak english.

5/09/2006 04:38:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Bob: You are fighting the wrong battle. Focus your attention on the issue.

5/09/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Blogger Boycott Bob said...

gala -
you're right...I feel so enlightened.

5/09/2006 04:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boycot Bob is a fake.

Boycott Houses!

Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!

Do Not let anyone associated or has a vested interest in this Real estate ponzi scheme try to con you into buying at these Bloated prices.

BOOOOOYAAAAAAAA!

Bob

5/09/2006 04:56:00 PM  
Blogger JMW977 said...

I think I'll checkout Nutley :-)

I work for a Nutley company, and know lots of folks who live there.

While it is still a relatively nice town, the local government has a tendency to cover up any unpleasantries.

The schools are not as good as they once were. I've heard some stories about gang activity, and a high school girl was recently arrested for selling $10K worth of crystal meth a week.

I think the prices are wildly overpriced in Nutley, like the rest of the area.

5/09/2006 05:00:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

Plainfield still has some majestic mansions. And not just in Sleepy Hollow. There was a majestic mansion that was being sold for $699K earlier this year. In Summit, that would be worth several millions. But in Plainfield, it was surrounded by public housing and bus stops. What a tragedy.

5/09/2006 05:04:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


why do you people have this superiority complex? you feel like you're the most intelligent people in the world...and you can't even speak english.


Boycott bob, just who are these "you people" you're referring to ?

5/09/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"chicagofinance: I understand the use with Airport, but wouldn't it be better to have something that is dual purpose ( for folks coming airport as well as local folks who can drive to it ).

Metro: I would like to see your opinion as Urban Planner."

I am having a hard time concieving what you are talking about. This airport link had a hard enough time getting built with NJ transit, Amtrak, and the Port Authority squabbling.

If what you are talking about is a park & ride to the plane they've got those in the long term parking lots. If you are advocating a park and ride to go in the city then I don't see the point. I seem to remember you saying you live around Readington. Take the raritan Valley line to Hoboken and transfer to Path. Very little hassle there, PATH goes from downtown to midtown. The point of transit is to get you out of your car as early as possible not to drive into the congested areas where real estate is at a premium for parking.

As for the dual purpose, by the time you are in Newark you should have already been boarded on something other than your car.

BTW, that area on your google as well as the surrounding area is being seriously looked at for warehousing as the port activity is only going to increase over the next 2 decades. If the warehouses don't get built there, watch the warehouses go in PA, with alot more trucks on the road going back and forth from their distribution centers. in Monroe, and Pike counties.

5/09/2006 05:22:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

San Francisco has an excellent public transit system. There are also a lot of good links into the city (via BART) and CalTrain. You can live in SF without a car.

5/09/2006 05:33:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

SF just finished it's airport BART link 2 years ago. We used MUNI and the trolley to get around town. However, as with much of the US, you would still rather drive if you lived there imo.

5/09/2006 05:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Newark Airport Station is intended purely as a rail link for the airport. If you are in a car, you drive to the airport. If you are going to NYC, you drive to another station.


Unfortunately, there are communters parking in P4 and riding the Air Train to the Rail Link station, and then take Amtrak or NJ Transit to NYC. I say unfortunately because I travel out on Monday, and P4 is 80%--roof top only. If I am running late, I may have to settle for P1 or P2 on the otherside of the airport which adds 15 minutes. Stop the madness!!!

5/09/2006 05:56:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

metro: The issue with Raritan line is very low frequency, especially in non-peak hours. Compared to that North East corridor line has much higher frequency. I would like more frequency on Raritan line, but I don't think there is that much traffic to support it.

Hence, I was thinking of this as potential solution. The normal thought would be to park at airport and take Airtrain. In that case, one has to make one more change i.e. take Airtrain, then reach the station.

I am sure this may not solve all the issues, but I think for many folks having a parking, right next to freeway from where you can catch train will save significant time.

5/09/2006 06:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I work for a Nutley company,....
I've heard some stories about gang activity, ....


Gee, this sounds like Maplewood! If you walk down Maplewood Ave after 7PM there are groups (gangs) of smart mouth punks roaming the streets, littering, writing graffeti (sp) on the buildings, leaning against cars, and yelling. I often say, "I'm glad I don't live in this trashy hood." And to think I almost bought there back in 2001. This is a hood that once was great, then people moved out (I knew a lot of them in the early 90's), then became popular when property values were on the up, and now it is quickly sliding down hill. I know several people who would like to leave, but they bought 2003 -2004 and stand to lose money.

5/09/2006 06:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Stan said...

I would love to give up my car, but then I would have to live in Hoboken, Jersey City, or NYC--all unaffordable at the moment.

I hear this a lot but is it true? Let's say you have a one bedroom apartment in Hoboken for $1700. How much less can you get that apartment in Morristown or Piscataway? $1500? So you save two hundred dollars on rent but then you need to buy and maintain a car and buy monthly train passes. All things considered, I think Hoboken/Jersey City are pretty cheap options if you want to work in NYC.

5/09/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hence, I was thinking of this as potential solution. The normal thought would be to park at airport and take Airtrain. In that case, one has to make one more change i.e. take Airtrain, then reach the station.


KEEP YOUR COMMUNTER @SS AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT! DIDN'T YOU JUST READ THE LAST POST!

5/09/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


hear this a lot but is it true? Let's say you have a one bedroom apartment in Hoboken for $1700. How much less can you get that apartment in Morristown or Piscataway? $1500? So you save two hundred dollars on rent but then you need to buy and maintain a car and buy monthly train passes. All things considered, I think Hoboken/Jersey City are pretty cheap options if you want to work in NYC.


For renting, I agree its better to rent closer in. I would still not go with Hoboken or Jersey City. Both areas are too expensive for newer housing, or are in bad areas.

I would instead suggest Weehakwen or one of the towns along Blvd. East in Hudson County. Or one of the rental complexes on River Road in Hudson/Bergen County. Commute to Midtown is as good as Hoboken, Edgetwater and Weehawken are good safe towns with reasonable school districts. Even Fort Lee is a possibility (longer commute though).

5/09/2006 06:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would instead suggest Weehakwen or one of the towns along Blvd. East in Hudson County. Or one of the rental complexes on River Road in Hudson/Bergen County. Commute to Midtown is as good as Hoboken, Edgetwater and Weehawken are good safe towns with reasonable school districts. Even Fort Lee is a possibility (longer commute though).

7:21 PM


I hear that Union City, specifically on Park Ave--near Weehawken, is okay. A lot of local type of shops and restaurants.

Any one know the area?

5/09/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


I hear that Union City, specifically on Park Ave--near Weehawken, is okay. A lot of local type of shops and restaurants. Any one know the area?


I'm somewhat familiar with it since I lived on Blvd. East for a few years. Union City is more mixed. Generally, the closer you get to Blvd. East, the better the area. However, there is some gang activity, and the like in some areas. The housing stock tends to be older as well. The shopping area is good though it tends to be aimed more at Hispanics (although anyone can pick up some bargains there). School system is average at best.

Weehawkwen would still be my preference, or Edgewater. Otherwise, try Guttenberg or the area near James Braddock Park.

5/09/2006 06:38:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"Shailesh Gala said:

metro: The issue with Raritan line is very low frequency, especially in non-peak hours. Compared to that North East corridor line has much higher frequency. I would like more frequency on Raritan line, but I don't think there is that much traffic to support it.

Hence, I was thinking of this as potential solution. The normal thought would be to park at airport and take Airtrain. In that case, one has to make one more change i.e. take Airtrain, then reach the station."


That is the problem with commuter lines. Often they need top shre the same line with freight (who own it and tolerate commuters, of course with money). The old addage applies "time to spare, Travel by air".

5/09/2006 07:41:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"Gee, this sounds like Maplewood! If you walk down Maplewood Ave after 7PM there are groups (gangs) of smart mouth punks roaming the streets, littering, writing graffeti (sp) on the buildings, leaning against cars, and yelling. I often say, "I'm glad I don't live in this trashy hood."

Home of among many things the Shues, Elizabeth and who cares, and freestyle frisbee at Columbia H.S. Great town when my sister in law livwed there in the mid 80's.

Is the Kress diner still in business?

5/09/2006 07:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

any one have thoughts on randolph...it is a bit of a commute to nyc but the school systems seem very good and the prices 'relatively' reasonable relative to other towns...unfortunately we are moving from out of state and have young kids so would like to buy sooner than later

5/09/2006 08:55:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Boycot Bob is a fake."


Glad to hear that, I didn't think you were a bigot, Bob.

And Shailesh thought some of my posts were too harsh.

:)

5/09/2006 09:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randolph has a good school system. You can commute to NYC by train (nearby NJ transit stations of Denville, Morristown & Morris Plains) or Lakeland bus. For a town with a such a good school system, the house prices in Randolph seem reasonable (compared to what you get for the same money in towns east of Randolph).

CNS

5/09/2006 11:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 7:21

Union City is not bad at all. In respects to "gang" activity - there are gangs everywhere even in my old town of Rutherford. Most of these kids look like they are but that the style. All I am saying is that UC is worth a look.

5/10/2006 01:32:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said...

any one have thoughts on randolph...it is a bit of a commute to nyc but the school systems seem very good and the prices 'relatively' reasonable relative to other towns...

Randolph is nice and has decent ratables. If you get a job with intel down on 10 near 280 or at Pfizer in Morris Plains. You are in an affordable nice area of Morris during the mid 90's I saw a 3bdrm split level for around $180K but now the prices have soared to over $500K . Rent and wait ou the madness.

5/10/2006 06:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Metro's suggestion to rent in Randolph is also a good idea. Randolph has some of the best rentals in Morris County (best units - not necessarily best price).

CNS

5/10/2006 10:04:00 AM  
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