Weekend Open Discussion
Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
100 Comments:
Sorry about that CF, was working on Lowball and forgot about posting the weekend thread..
grim
Need some opinions on which, if either, makes more financial sense, in terms of monthly payments, tax write offs, etc.
Note, I'm assuming that all other things are equal like school system, town services, etc.
Town A - lower home prices higher taxes
Town B - higher home prices lower taxes
Front page of The Bergen Record May 11, 2006 --- "Democrats Launch War on Waste in Government" ... Let's see how long this lasts! Key topics include shared services, public pension abuse, and school funding reform.. Not directly related to Real Estate but has a significant affect on our ever growing property tax bills. Put pressure on your local officials and district reps..
bobby
anonymous 4:23
I've been pondering the same thing on occassion.. Buy in a cheaper town with cheaper taxes and use the money saved to send child to private school..
depends on the trade off..
bobby
scratch my response to anonymous 4:23 --- misunderstood your post
bobby
Anon,
Not so easy. I'd suggest trying to run some numbers through a spreadsheet. Unfortunately, you are going to have to come up with some estimates on expected tax increases. Not an easy number to estimate. It's also important to know when the last reassessment was in the town.
However, you'll eventually pay your house off.. You never pay off your taxes.
Keep in mind, it's not like towns are burning tax dollars to heat city hall (although it is curiously warm in there).
I would hope that high taxes are a result of a higher level of services being provided, not that high taxes are due to wasteful government or debt service.
Or am I living in some kind of utopian-government dream world..
grim
from yahoo
Another week, another set of losses for the dramatically diminishing dollar, which on Friday slumped to its lowest level since October 1997 in trade-weighted terms.
....
for the financial gurus - what kind of impact will this have on RE if any?
"Democrats Launch War on Waste in Government"
That headline is too funny... oh, ok... and i guess they're going to launch a war on themselves or cut spending or get union concessions... hahhaha.. too funny.
If we weren't in a bubble, I would have said the more expensive house if monthly payments were equivalent. It would apreciate with a greater return YOY(based on past jersey prices). But if we have the correction you will be upside down on the loan much further.
grim said...
"I would hope that high taxes are a result of a higher level of services being provided, not that high taxes are due to wasteful government or debt service."
Not necessarily, imo. NJ Gov't can be extremely wasteful. We have only a few rare examples of good government.
for the financial gurus - what kind of impact will this have on RE if any?
no impact at all. completely different animals.
great info! thanks rich!
Seeing the dollar falling I can't help but think of the kind of impact it's going to have on imports.
We are a country with an unsatiable demand for foreign goods. As the dollar falls, those goods become more expensive for us. If import inflation starts to grow, I have a feeling it's going to have a significant impact on the CPI and other inflation measures.
Put that together and it seems like you have a recipe for stagflation.
...which would force the government to keep raising interest rates thereby applying more pressure to the RE market.
..which would further dampen demand in the face of exploding inventory.
that's the impact. but it will be a long drawn out process. not something "waiting til the summer" would help.
Agree with everyone who posted.
1 USD down
2 Price of goods up = inflation
3 Fed reacts & LT US Gov't Debt prices weaken
4 Interest rates up
5 Real Estate DOA
Yes, I think Bernake will continue to raise rates to try and shore up the dollar. The current deficit is a huge reason our currency is short, yes foriegn goods become more expensive but the pain will not be felt as large because corporations will take a profit hit rather than reduce sales and the prices being paid are to manufacture goods. Now on the other hand high priced foriegn luxury goods will experience price increases.
Now back to the original question, will inflation effect home prices. The short answer is yes when we experience inflation, our material costs go up dramatically and thus everything is more expensive.
Big Off-Topic - news of the week? the stock market? interest rates? USD? NO!!!
DEPECHE MODE has to unfortunately cancel tonight's (Thursday, May 11) performance at the Allstate Arena in Chicago as lead singer DAVE GAHAN has laryngitis. After seeing a doctor in Chicago this morning, he was advised to cancel the show and rest his voice.
Meanwhile, the group had to regrettably end their show last night (May 10) at the Starlight Amphitheatre in Kansas City, MO earlier than expected.
DEPECHE MODE's next scheduled shows will take place Saturday, May 13 at Jones Beach Amphitheatre in Wantagh, NY & Sunday, May 14th at the PNC BankArts Center, Holmdel, NJ.
Talk about unhedgeable risks!
another question kind of related to taxes: If/when home prices do fall, do your property taxes also fall - how does this work?
Town A - lower home prices higher taxes
Town B - higher home prices lower taxes.
If you are approaching AMT, the higher tax town may throw you into it. I don't think you can deduct any state or local taxes under the AMT regime.
The only way property taxes are going to fall is if state and local governments dramatically cut back spending.
grim
but aren't property taxes based on assessed values of homes? not that I can see them being lowered, but they are tied to home prices somehow...
I'm really thinking about going to the PNC show..
However, now that everything in my life priced in equivalent T-bills, I'm having a hard time justifying entertainment expenses. It seems buying more T-bills always wins out.
Treasury Direct is incredibly addicting.
Last two auctions I participated in..
4.864% on the 13 week
4.701% on the 4 week
Should have gone in for the 26 week this week, 5.020%.
In the course of typing this message I actually logged on t-direct and purchased more 4-week bills.
grim
Whats the best way to find an apartment if I want to sit this bubble thing out? Most realtors don't want to help because they'd rather sell a house.
I don't know why I find so little discussion about the housing bubble in New York City. I follow it by reading these monthly reports produced by an economist for one of the large brokers:
http://tinyurl.com/bjrqo
The report for April shows the median price of $722,000 has declined 13% since the peak in June, 2005 of $831,000. For some reason no one is talking about this number. It seems to me that a 13% drop in 11 months is a bursting bubble.
HA!
CF, I was just about to post that!
Grim, ebay and craigslist both have tickets under face value for sale if you decide to go at the last minute. There were 2 seats on ebay for $0.99 with no reserve and no bids today, but I think that auction has ended.
"Town A - lower home prices higher taxes
Town B - higher home prices lower taxes
You mention the school system would be equal, but usually the town with higher taxes has better schools.
It's hard to select a town on just the home price, or taxes, as there's more to a town than that. Take a town like Madison, which has a nice downtown area. For some, that's a big plus, and worth paying more for, etc.
Then there's a town like Montclair, which has absurd taxes.
Can you give some examples of towns you're comparing?
Chicago / Michelle,
I may hit the Borgata show next week. How long does laryngitis take to 'heal'? A few days?
"However, now that everything in my life priced in equivalent T-bills, I'm having a hard time justifying entertainment expenses. It seems buying more T-bills always wins out."
Life is short, enjoy a little live music now and again.
I love DEPECHE MODE if only the cure were paying too?!!
Metroplexual said...
I love DEPECHE MODE if only the cure were playing too?!! I don't go out often like grim.
I don't know why I find so little discussion about the housing bubble in New York City. I follow it by reading these monthly reports produced by an economist for one of the large brokers:
http://tinyurl.com/bjrqo
The report for April shows the median price of $722,000 has declined 13% since the peak in June, 2005 of $831,000. For some reason no one is talking about this number. It seems to me that a 13% drop in 11 months is a bursting bubble.
With a declining US dollar, RE in the US becomes more attractive for overseas investors. Remember when the Japanese bought Rockefeller Center?? Don't rule out overseas companies wanting a piece of the RE pie. They already do own quite a bit of the US, thanks to the US's $2 billion a day coke trip (the diurnal US deficit)
Dekorai
I threw my bra on stage as a boy at a Depeche Mode show in the Finger Lakes region in 1987, but my God, grow up chicagofinance! The Cure, on the other hand, may still be worth a reference, metroplexual, but both your heads have been in the numbers/sand too long and not in the music/aesthetics nearly enough. Pay more attention to Pink Martini now, boys.
rymingrealtor-
Thanks for following up on my question. That's interesting. I did get an email back from MelissaData saying not much more than their web site. Basically, they receive all this information from county record offices on a monthly basis. So, consider there is a lag from the sale to the county recording and sending out data.
I checked another source (unfortunately I can't share this one with the blog)* for Hoboken deed and propery transfers. Very eye opening:
1. Numbers were totally different**, but showed a similar large proportional drop in activity.
2. Several intra-family transactions.
3. Several low dollar transactions (around $150,000) for condos???
* sorry for being cryptic, but I really can't go into details
** there is a lot of "stuff" in these files, it would take me some real time to wade through it and filter out the dross
JM
Despite the falling dollar, if the Asians want to buy real estate it's going to be in Japan.
grim
"I threw my bra on stage as a boy"
I'm trying to visualize that, and it's not easy. :)
Darn, you beat me to it!
-P
Not enough pain in the system yet.
Despite some signs of weakness, I don't think there is a wholesale collapse in May-June. Something else needs to be introduced. Maybe those ARM resets have to start stepping up.
chicago
===========================
Retailers' Sales Rise Amid
High Gasoline Prices
Increase of 0.5% in April
Suggests Pain at the Pump
Isn't Hampering Consumers
By MARK WHITEHOUSE
May 12, 2006; Page A3
Judging from the performance of U.S. retailers, it might take more than $3-a-gallon gasoline to make a significant dent in consumers' spending habits.
Sales at restaurants, gas stations, department stores and other retail establishments rose to a seasonally adjusted $363 billion in April, up 0.5% from March and 6.6% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported.
The increase, below the 0.6% month-on-month advance in March, fell short of economists' expectations. But it indicates that consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy and a fifth of the global economy, is on track to expand at a healthy pace in the second quarter, albeit more slowly than in the first quarter.
Rising prices at the gasoline pump, which drove sales up 4.6% from the previous month and 17.4% from a year earlier, contributed a large part of the gain in overall retail sales. The average price of a gallon of gas rose to about $2.80 in April, compared with $2.30 a year earlier, pushing up gasoline's share of total retail sales to 10%, from 9% a year earlier.
Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.1% for the month. But a close read of the government report shows consumers still boosting their spending in many categories. After stripping out the usually volatile auto sector, and building materials, sales of which have been bumpy in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, retail sales in April were up 0.5% from March and 6.7% from a year earlier.
"That's pretty solid," said Ian Shepherdson, U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a Valhalla, N.Y., consulting company. "There's nothing in the last couple months that you could plausibly argue indicates a slowdown is under way."
RE: Anon 4:23
Calculators out there for you on various sites like bankrate.com. Run the pmts for both situations A & B under the "How much can I afford".
As grim said, the tax projection will be only an estimate but at least you can determine a good 3 year difference, then compound annually at expected investment return assuming investment in tax free munis, then same taxable (less your tax rate). It's a start.
Saw The Cure a few years back with Interpol and some other bands at a gig called Curiousa which was all acts that had been heavily influenced by The Cure. Quite fantastic. Another show that didn't bother stopping anywhere near North Carolina. Neither did Depeche Mode.
I think I would have been bored out of my gourd there...makes the cost of living here worth it (that and the fact that I'm heading out to softball practice on a team with my Mom, sisters, Aunt, and cousin! - priceless.)
Unrealtor, the Borgata tix have been sold out for ages - good luck scoring one. The Jones Beach show is still scheduled to go on tonight so I assume the very fine Dave is feeling better.
Must watch video. Good primer on many of the economic measures we look at.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2640239019877885520
Christopher Thornburg, senior economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management.
It's about a half hour video.
grim
MISERY TODAY
for starving realtors and pa pa pa pa pa pa PANICKING sellers.
Bababababababababa BOYCOTT HOUSES!
No MAAS to RIPOFF house prices.
Booooooyaaaaa
Bob
10 year treasury Rate increases!!!
Jan 1 4.39%
Today 5.19%
An 18.20% INCREASE....
Boycott Insulting House prices!
Boooooyaaaaa
Bob
GSML Listings
Relentless Inventory building
Today 28,911
5/12/06 28,820
5/10/06 28,660
5/3/06 28,110
4/12/06 26,582
3/06/06 24,111
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
There is no shortage of Insanely priced houses.
Do NOT sign up for monthly slavery.
BOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
This is why you Bababababababababababababababbababa
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Wise UP!
"Nearly one in 10 households with a mortgage had zero or negative equity in their homes as of September 2005, according to First American Real Estate Solutions, an arm of title-insurance company First American Corp. The study of 26 million homes in 36 states and the District of Columbia found that one in 20 home borrowers was upside-down by 10% or more.
The situation is even grimmer for recent borrowers. Of those who bought or refinanced homes in 2005, 29% had zero or negative equity, and 15.2% were underwater by 10% or more."
Booooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
WiseUP!
Think!
Use a little Common sense!
Use some math skills if you have any!
Boycott Houses!
Do NOT be a bagholder locked into a nightmare mtg situation.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA!
Bob
REinvestor wrote:
"Another threat on the currency front is the impending start of the Iranian oil bourse which will trade oil in Euros":
Just think this through.
Do Europeans buy oil? Since they don't use the good old U.S. dollar, it must simply be IMPOSSIBLE for them to buy oil!
But wait--they drive cars, manufacture products, heat homes, and generate electricity just like the U.S. does. So they must use SOME oil, so how do they get it?
Very simple--they take their Euros, sell them on the Forex market, and buy dollars to get the oil.
The EUR/USD is a very liquid market. If you think we need to rattle Iran over this, that is wrong, to be polite about it.
For some proper analysis of the situation:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/01/iranian-oil-bourse-nonsense.html
and
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2005/10/oil-priced-in-euros-would-it-matter.html
Babababababababa
Boycott Houses!!
Make the seller worry NO interest no bids Say "NO MAAS" to ripoff prices.
You bail them out while you sign up for monthly mtg slavery!
Do Not be an fool buying at the peak.
remember last fools buying at the 1989 peak took 10 years to BREAKEVEN! And m,any were under water for these 10 years.
Wiseup!
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
Has anyone been following the Dwek story down in Monmouth? It seems that a real estate mogul with hundreds of properties is accused of defrauding PNC Bank out of $20 million and he allegedly owes other banks and individuals millions as well. Now a fiscal agent has been appointed and many of the properties and pending developments are in limbo. Looks like a scary situation IMHO
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060513/NEWS/605130409
The Dwek story is only the beginning of a long list of Real estate blowups in the next few years.
WISEUP!
BOYCOTT RIPOFF HOUSES PRICES!
Booooooyaaaaaa
Bob
Yes Most if NOT all listings are overpriced.
I am tired of hearing that same BS line.
You sign up for monthly mtg slavery.
ask those that bought at last bubbeheads peak in 1989.
Underwater for 10 years!!!!!!!!
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Boooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
"Those selling are also buying"
Well Big guy they have to sell FIRST and get a insane price to step up or move!
if they can't sell then they HAVE TO LOWER THEIR PRICES.
Free markets work both on the UP side and the DOWN SIDE!
Now downside is in!
it's all business Nothing personal remember!
Boycott Houses!
Boooooyaaaaaaa
Bob
where did you buy a condo in 1989 for $30K?
anon9:18pm-
I live in Brooklyn and watch things happening in my neighborhood that make me believe we're definitely heading off a peak. Those numbers are interesting. Where are we going from here is the next question? It seems the hysteria of the last couple of years has started to disipate.
My guess is there will be a slow slide or plateau until late July/early August. Then we might see some panicked sellers which could lead to another slide. The big slide will come if inventories keep building like they have and/or there is an economic downturn.
Just look at the japanese real estate peak.
The first 9 months after the peak barely trended down then after the next 18 months was staright down then it sort of flattened and then grinded lower for another about 2-3 years. But the bulk of the drop occurred in about 2 1/2 years. Peak was summer 2005 so falloff should start to accelerate about now.
I recently had a conversation with an acquaintance who has been a full time real estate agent for nine years.
She told me that they're supposed to tell people that it's now a transitioning market, but the reality is that it sucks.
She personally is in a heap of hurt. She's 52, single, and has a $3400 mortgage on a townhouse she bought with an interest only mortgage. Her monthly expenses are $9K, she owes the IRS $50K, and she doesn't have a closing in sight. Needless to say, she's looking for work outside of the real estate industry.
Sad...
wj
"Unrealtor, the Borgata tix have been sold out for ages - good luck scoring one."
They're out there, for a steep price. :(
The market is talking, pay attention.
==========================
Taking TIPS on Inflation Concerns
Hot Commodities Market
And Doubts on Fed Stance
Widen 'Breakeven' Spread
By MICHAEL MACKENZIE
May 13, 2006; Page B5
Red-hot commodity prices and doubts over the Federal Reserve's sanguine outlook for inflation are driving investors into Treasury inflation-indexed securities, known as TIPS.
This demand has caused the difference in yields between cash 10-year Treasurys and TIPS, known as breakevens, to near its widest levels since the inflation-protected government bond market was established in 1997.
Breakevens are one of several inflation indicators followed by the Fed. The widening signals that investors are worried about inflation pressures picking up.
Breakevens on 10-year TIPS stood Friday at 2.75 percentage points, just shy of the 2.78 percentage-point peak seen in March. The 10-year Treasury note, the cash market's benchmark, lost 13/32 point, or $4.06, on $1,000 face value, to 99 16/32 point. Its yield rose to 5.19% -- the highest in four years -- from 5.162% Thursday, as yields move inversely to prices.
The move comes as prices for a range of commodities, from copper to gold, have been rising, though they came off their highs Friday.
[edit]
Barclays Capital, in a report published this week, said the trend of rising inflation risk premiums "has further to run, [and] is justified on several grounds," notably, "the sheer persistence of rising headline inflation." March headline inflation was up 3.4% on the year, while core inflation stood at 2.1% -- at the upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone.
[edit]
That has led Treasury market investors to think the Fed may not raise rates again at its meeting at the end of June, a view reflected in the two-year yield sticking to just under 5%, below the fed-funds rate.
"If we combine a pause in monetary tightening with no evidence of slower U.S. nominal demand growth, inflation risk premia on U.S. bonds can only move higher," wrote Barclays Capital in the report.
Add into this mix the dollar's sharp declines since late April -- which could add to inflation pressures as imported goods prices become more expensive and also make foreign investors leery of buying U.S. assets -- and there are reasons for concern.
Indeed, there are signs that the bond market is set to throw down a classic inflation challenge to the FOMC.
"Bond markets are recovering their historical role as inflation vigilantes, suggesting if the Fed does not tighten, the bond market will," said Barclays.
Factor in taxes if you are a fool buying at RIPOFF PRICES.
http://www.recordonline.com/archive/2006/05/13/news-camtaxes-05-13.html
Boycott Houses!
Booooyaaaa
Bob
"Not all listings are overpriced."
Can you provide the MLS # for a house that's not overpriced?
Property Taxes ONLY go up.
Wiseup!!
BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Booooyaaaaaaa
Bob
Think! ThinK for yourself for once!
If it sounds to good to be true it is!
BOYCOTT RIPOFF HOUSES!
Booooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
"I recently had a conversation with an acquaintance who has been a full time real estate agent for nine years.
She told me that they're supposed to tell people that it's now a transitioning market, but the reality is that it sucks."
The party is clearly over.
It's unfortunate your friend is in such deep financial trouble.
I feel bad for honest realtors, but for the rest of the shady ones, who deceive with a smile, I hope they enjoy the 2006 'spring bounce' with its 26% decline in sales.
Don't be a fool and listen to the spin from a starving greedy unethical realtor.They walk away with commish and you get stuck holding the mtg slave paper.
And for sellers it's all business just like before when sellers stuck it to buyers. Now things are different. Expect the same back.
Think!
Use your noodle!
Wiseup!
Boycott Houses!
Booooyaaaaaaa
Bob
Just put a bid on a house for 390,000 last wednesday and the seller turned it down. His listing price is 429900 and he said nothing less than 400,000. last year I would have jumped at it and my agent can't understand why I won't move to the 400000 mark???? I told him the ball is now in my court and If he wants to get a contract on this house he needs to push the seller not me!
Tell the agent it's your money and interest rates have just moved up 18% + in last 5 months.
make it a 24 hr bid then you pull out.
When they come back and they will you lower it by another 5%.
This all business, nothing personal.
Just walk away you are in the driver seat.
KL/all with more knowledge of RE records-
I decided to give a call to Hudson county records office on Friday to see if they could give any info over the phone.
They wouldn't give things out over the phone, but said you could come down to their office and pull an "index" of homes sold in Hudson county. Also, they said the Jersey Journal has # of homes sold data every week.
First, is anyone familiar with the index they mentioned?
Second, anyone have a copy of a Jersey Journal in your stack of papers with sales data?
BTW, I'll make a positive plug for the people I spoke to on the phone at the Hudson county records office. Very friendly and nice on the phone. Seemed to welcome a visit as well.
JM
I've seen many price reductions in the Bridgewater area lately.
Most price reductions are on very over-priced properties. Most sellers are still setting prices based on 10 or 15% appreciation over last year.
I think for jersey prices to come down 10% from their previous peaks in the next year is very realistic, especially since the big pharmas are all reporting poor performance (I've heard of some layoffs at the pharmas).
Boston's median re prices was down 7% according to an article in Boston.com. I also know this first hand. In my previous neighborhood, prices are down at least 7% from their peaks.
Though Bostonians are not taking in the wall street bonuses, MA is not having a major economic downturn either.
I know of a number of people who purchased homes with I/O loans and most opted for ARMs. They are not investors, but rather first time buyers who had no other way of entering the market.
I wonder if the NJ market is going to mirror that of MA (on a delayed schedule). BTW, MA has much lower property tax rate, though it is still Taxachusetts.
Unrealtor at 12:48 PM - Can you provide the MLS # for a house that's not overpriced?
2275085
Thanks for the MLS of a house that's "not overpriced."
MLS 2275085
12 Crescent Drive, 07054
Asking Price: $548,900
Problem is, that house IS overpriced, and would have cost about 100% less in 2002.
In 2002, comparables in that area sold for $275,000.
But be patient, the bubble is over, and we're starting the descent down, which began last August.
Those who buy now, while prices are close to bubble peak, are throwing away money. Which might be OK for some people, but they should understand they're buying an overpriced house.
Unrealtor - You are a keyboard quarterback. Relatively speaking , it is a fair list price for the house at this point in the market. Drive around, look at other comps in the area and then make a pronouncement.
That was a quick response. There ARE MLS listings, even if 1 in every 50, but there are listings which are priced reasonably enough that you can begin to consider offers.
The last sentence: I meant consider making offers.
"Relatively speaking, it is a fair list price for the house at this point in the market."
But as we're still close to the bubble peak, that's not saying much -- who wants to pay 100% more than a house was worth 4 years ago?
Relatively speaking, all houses in Northern NJ are significantly overpriced.
Are you saying if a house costs only 90% more than it did 4 years ago, that's "priced reasonably enough" to make an offer? Are you a realtor?
Unrealtor - Your statistics on this specific listing are wrong. Just because you can browse to zillow.com and recite what comes on your screen does not mean that you know what you are talking about.
Let us take this MLS 2275085 here. A Comp 7 Crescent Dr 07054 sold in Nov 2001 for $389K. Another comp 16 Crescent Dr 07054 sold in Sep 2002 for $390K. The town notated that this sale was below market value. So your claim that this MLS 2275085 was worth $275K in 2002 is wrong.
Now take a deep breath. I did not ask anyone here to buy this house for $550K or even $500K or $450K. I do not know what home prices are going to do next year or in 2008, 2009 or 2010. I just gave one example of an MLS listing as a response to the question you asked. I could give others if you are interested.
My advice to you - Stick to making comments and predictions on general real estate issues, not specific issues or listings. You will feel important and pompous.
"My advice to you - Stick to making comments and predictions on general real estate issues, not specific issues or listings. You will feel important and pompous."
LOL, the irony of your comments is lost, no doubt.
I was certainly not rude to you "anonymous."
Now, don't you have to prepare for your empty Open Houses tomorrow?
skeptic - you are right. Also, look at reasonably priced houses in Mountain Lakes. I know of a listing that sold 3 days of being listed.
ryming - prepend < i > and append < / i > to the section that you want to make italics. Remove the spaces obviously.
unrealtor - one size does not fit all. Real estate is indeed very local. Constantly mentioning that all real estate is expensive does not mean that it applies to every listing out there. Do visit some open houses tomorrow for perspective.
Dwek is the canary in the coal mine of RE speculators in NJ. They're all going down!
"I don't think there will be a sell-off in good towns, especially in the ones with environmental or zoning restrictions on the new construction."
Well, there's often a Greater Fool, but no town is immune from post-bubble declining prices:
320 Lupine Way, Short Hills
1) Sold last June for $1.3M.
2) Put on the market 4 months later in October for $1.3M (MLS 2204767).
3) No takers, withdrawn after 62 days.
4) Put back on the market in March (MLS 2261656), several price drops later, they're hoping to sell at a $300,000 loss for $1M. (Add in closing costs, carrying costs, etc.)
A realtor wrote: "Do visit some open houses tomorrow for perspective."
Not a chance in hell.
Boycott Open Houses
* Sign-in books sitting empty, no realtor sales leads.
* Realtors sitting bored from 1-4PM.
* Sellers perplexed they can't get 100% more than they paid a few years ago.
* Well-funded buyers waiting on the sidelines as prices drop in ALL towns.
The bubble is over.
"I completely agree with you, that house (MLS 2204767) is not worth a fraction of the asking price ($1.3M)."
Well, that's not true -- houses on that street have sold in that price range in the bubble market of 2005. But they're ALL overpriced.
But the point wasn't that the house wasn't worth the asking price, but that someone is selling it at a $300,000 loss. It's not like they're a retiring couple who lived there for 20 years and lowered the price, they're losing $300,000 since buying in June!
"Before I proceed, could you explain how you calculate the FAIR market value of a house?"
Fair market is what a buyer/Greater Fool is willing to pay. As inventory climbs, and prices drop, we're seeing fair market value drop.
But a house selling at "fair market value" can still be overpriced -- the guideline to use is incomes. If incomes stay relatively flat, and homes increase in value 100%, then a correction is in order.
"Also, just out of curiosity, how do you justify buying in Millburn/Short Hills instead of so-called Somerset Hills (Bedminster, Gladston/Peapack, Chester/Mendham)?"
Several reasons I'd prefer Short Hills over those towns. The architecture is superior (thanks to Stewart Hartshorn, who approved every new set of plans, before a house was built), the commute is far shorter into NY City via Midtown Direct train line, the schools are top-rated, there's a nice downtown area with shops and restaurants, there are many tall trees (no clear cutting when building the neighborhoods) giving most streets a tree-lined, storybook look.
"I mean, you spend 30 more minutes traveling to the Short Hills Mall, but you get a CHEAPER, big, nice new house on 2-5 acres of land instead of a 65-year-old shack on postage-stamp piece of land."
Well, the houses you mention are larger, but not architecturally nicer, IMHO. It depends on your budget, some people with big bucks can buy an acre in SH, and still have that 35 minute commute to Penn Station.
For me, I'm looking for 1/2 to 1/3 acre; any larger, and the taxes would be too high.
I think people either 'get' Short Hills, or they don't.
But here's a house near where you've mentioned that I think is architecturally superior to the two you mentioned: MLS 2259705.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1056959529
That's a serious house, and 2.1 acres. Taxes are 'cheap' at $15K given the size of the house and lot (2.1 acres). But this house has a long commute, no downtown, etc, etc.
Interestingly, I notice the price has dropped $100K since coming on the market a few weeks ago!
"The big builders are not wrong, housing will remain at these prices in the long and skort term."
You had better tell Robert Toll, of Toll Brothers, who recently said the market has cooled significantly.
Value of Toll Bros. contracts drops 29%
Builder scales back 2006 home-delivery estimate a third time
http://tinyurl.com/ef5qu
Toll Brothers 2nd-qtr orders drop 32%
NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - Toll Brothers Inc. on Friday cut its forecast for the number of homes it expects to sell in fiscal 2006, as quarterly orders fell 32 percent.
The decline in orders reflects softening demand and a build up of homes on the market, especially by speculators who are unloading their investments as their anticipated profit evaporates.
Orders fell sharply in Toll's biggest market, the Mid-Atlantic states of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia, where they were off 45 percent.
"Speculative buyers are no longer fueling demand," Robert Toll, CEO said in a statement. "Instead they're putting the homes they've recently acquired back on the market, or are canceling contracts in mid-construction."
http://tinyurl.com/zefpz
Yay! let's all gloat over other peoples misfortunes!
Bob,
This link is for you.
Boycott Housing
grim
The big builders are not wrong; housing will remain at these prices in the long and skort term."
I agree with you. The recent statements from TOL and HOV will force land owners to sell their land cheaper to these builders. Construction cost will decrease because of cheaper labor caused by downturn in construction.
The above factors will cause cheaper newer houses to be built. Home builders will always win. It's the guys banking on home builders doing well who end up losing :(
Dont go to a Cure Concert, they are nothing like they were in the 80s. Their current stuff is junk, I saw them the last time they were at PNC Arts Center in Holmdel.
The crowd is even scarier.
Save your money!
That's like saying "Don't see Paul McCartney - he's nothing like he was in the 60's".
***GAHAN UPDATE***
Heard the NY show last night was fab...great setlist...voice back in full force.
"Heard the NY show last night was fab...great setlist...voice back in full force."
Thanks for the update!
FYI, you can order a CD for every show they'll be playing here:
http://www.depechemodelive.com
Scroll down, they have every tour date listed.
"I guess you are correct, Toll Bros. is closing its doors, giving up"
Where does it say that?
"Yay! let's all gloat over other peoples misfortunes!"
Some of you realtors are piece of work.
For years you have led people by the noses, helping them buy over-priced houses, raking in huge commissions on quick high-dollar sales, and now you find morals?
This owner who lost $300K since June had the help of two realtors, the listing agent and the buyer agent. Sure he's a Greater Fool who got burned, but he had plenty of help from realtors making a commission off that $1.3M deal.
Your industry is polluted, and until some change happens, the disdain will increase. Keep running TV ads like "The Debate" with the woman browbeating the husband to buy a house at bubble peak, and keep re-listing houses with a new MLS # to conceal the days on market and prior list prices. Just don't blame anyone else for the disdain your industry reaps -- it's fully earned.
LOL, this is great!
http://www.boycotthousing.com
Check out their "Dump of the Day"
$700K for what looks like a shoebox:
boycotthousing.com/dumpoftheday.aspx
"Builders Don't Want To Cut Prices, But They Will"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=678
Regarding Toll Brothers and other builders....
It is easy for the builders to manipulate the market and maximize there profits... sure they will slow construction the next couple of years and take hits on the bottom line but let's remember they own the land... Every ad a builder has in your local paper for a new development take notice towards the bottom of each one. You'll see a phone number under each builders ad to call if you or somone you know has land to sell. When demand picks up again in the next cycle they'll have developable land....
bobby
I am going to vent..
I am 32 and my wife is 30... I make $85k in NY and my wife makes about $50k. I think we make very good living and I am greatful for what we have compared to others.
We paid for our own wedding last year and we have managed to save $60k for a house. And we are very dissapointed to see what's out in the market.
$60k gets you nothing.
$60k is 20% down payment on $300k house without even considering the closing cost. Yeah sure, we can get a creative loan and put 10% down and finance 90% on ARM mortgage or even worse I/O mortgage.
But it really shouldn't be this way. My wife and I make $135k!! That's a lot of money and we are greatful, but we can't even afford to purchase a decent house with a regular 30 year fixed mortgage.
How much money a family needs to make to afford a 3 bedroom colonial?
I am looking for a shelter, not a mercedes or a fancy jewerly.
But unlike some of other bloggers, I do NOT blame the agents. It's not at fault of anyone. It's like the perfect storm, created by low mortgage rate and this magical hype that property will always appreciate.
This Sunday, I caught myself saying, "What the fk does this seller think he is? sellign this piece of crap for $400k?" (I probably said it many times in the past...), but honestly, it's not their fault either... they are just marketing to whatever the going rate is. I would probably list it at the same price, since it is the going market.
So now what? I've done my calculations. It looks like everytime a mortgage rate goes up 1/4%, the value of the house needs to come down $10k to $15k to keep the monthly payment same, but I haven't seen it yet.
One thing that my wife and I might do is going to another honeymoon at our wedding anniversary and look for a house next year. We figured the value of house will go down that much anyway, so why not just spend it on an exotic trip? Fk it..
Good luck everyone and Grim thanks for providing a channel for most of us to vent....
iLoveData&Graphs -
I'm in a very similar position - similar income, I'm older and have more saved for a down payment, but otherwise sounds like a similar position.
We're waiting, or at least "passively shopping" - if we see something we like in our price range we'll jump, but otherwise we'll deal with whatever hassle comes with renting for a while. Certainly better than overpaying by $100K for something we'd consider decent but would have to sell at a loss if we were hit by a life-changing circumstance.
iLoveData&Graphs >>
We fit the same pattern. Early 30s ... 150K+ ... If we decide to buy a crapy house (which we won't), all we can do is pay 20-30% and hope that we continue to make the same kind of money over the next 30 years to save for retirement!
I agree with you on not blaming sellers but RE agents and IO lenders need a fair bit of whipping.
If RE turns out to be a crash, I can see IO and other special lending architects being paraded like Ken Lay and co ... all in time for the next presidential elections.
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