Thursday, June 22, 2006

"The market isn't soft. It isn't even slow. It's dead"

From the Journal News:

Region's housing market deflates

It's over.

The crazed phase of frenetic home buying in Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties has screeched to a halt — leaving some industry experts wondering if the sound they hear now is the housing bubble bursting.

"The market isn't soft. It isn't even slow. It's dead," said Liz Rosenblatt, an agent with Fuerst & Fuerst Inc., a real estate firm in New Hempstead.

Scott Stiefvater, a broker-owner at Stiefvater Real Estate Inc. in Pelham, said prospective homeowners are still looking at properties. "They just aren't buying," he said. "I'm getting a little worried."

After nearly seven years of unprecedented strength, the housing market has taken an unexpectedly steep slide, real estate professionals throughout the Lower Hudson Valley concur. It's gone from multiple offers for more than asking price just hours after properties were listed for sale to no offers at all, even after price reductions.
...
The number of homes on the market in Westchester and Putnam counties has swelled from about 1,000 at the end of the first quarter of 2005 to about 1,500 at the end of the first quarter this year. In Rockland, inventory soared from 734 at the end of the first quarter of 2005 to 1,325 at the end of the first quarter this year.

Real estate brokers have concerns because inventory continues to grow, at an average pace of five to 10 listings in most communities each week. Stiefvater said there usually are about 25 homes for sale in Pelham. Now, he added, it has climbed to more than 80. In Clarkstown, Rosenblatt said, there usually are about six residential properties for sale. "Right now, we have about 45," she said.
...
In Westchester and Putnam, for example, the report released in April shows that there were 1,823 closings in the first quarter of this year, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Single-family home sales fell 14 percent, compared to the first quarter of 2005, while co-op sales slipped 5.7 percent in that same period. Only condominium sales were strong, posting a gain of 3.8 percent.

In Putnam, first-quarter home sales were 11 percent lower this year than 12 months earlier, the report continued. Rockland had a more modest decline in the first quarter, when 323 homes and 134 condominiums were sold, compared with 325 and 136, respectively.

Real estate agents and brokers speculate that second-quarter statistics will show an even steeper decline in sales.

116 Comments:

Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Can we get a BOOOOOOYA?

My mother and many people in her age group who I have talked to personally(60's) do not think that prices will go down. They really want that house they paid 45,000 for 30 years ago to be worth 845,000

What financial foresight!

6/22/2006 07:00:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Minutes, my father, same age group, insisted the same thing! He's going on about how prices won't drop. Then I say to him, "Well, so you're telling me that a starter home SHOULD cost 700K?" No answer. He finally acknowledged that we'd have a problem when first time buyers could no longer afford the houses - I had to tell him, uh, dad, that's now.

Love the Westchester piece - Pelham is one of my go to areas, and I have actually looked with Stiefvater. The article is right - last year, they had one home to show me, got 5 bids. This year I haven't even bothered to go up there despite numerous houses to look at.

6/22/2006 07:19:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/22/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

As a mortgage underwriter from 2001 to 2005, I kept telling people what was going on. All I ever heard was "the market always goes up"
Nobody believed me when I said the banks were doing NINA loans left and right so anybody with a credit report could qualify for 95% financing with no questions asked
I get a major sense of satisfaction reading these articles now. Thanks Grim. I just wish it had happened sooner because now the drop back to normalcy will be a very steep one. A lot of decent people will be getting hurt

6/22/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Of course this is strictly anecdotal, I have been very busy, with buyers.. I have stressed the market dangers ( which I have mostly been made aware of here) but yet they still buy. I also have more sellers at one time than I ever have but luckily these have been lower priced condos that have in fact sold.
KL

6/22/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am wondering if the suicide rate will go up as the housing values go down????

anyone?

6/22/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

With housing prices? Probably not. With unemployment Levels? Much more probable.

grim

6/22/2006 08:18:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Just watch a report on CNBC on Real Estate today morning. They had a Guest from ML.

To the question of Hard landing, his response, Home Builder stocks are down 50% in last 6 months. That definitely points to Hard Landing. Of course, he also said, the Home Prices won't come down significantly, but at least he acknowledged they are going to come down.

6/22/2006 08:21:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

My mother doesn’t believe prices will drop either. It’s the old “close to NYC argument”, as if the Island of Manhattan just floated up to NJ 5 years ago.

She is also caught in a catch-22. On one hand, she is devastated that I am seriously considering leaving NJ due to the cost of living. On the other hand, she believes that the price of her house is completely justified. She is also counting on it for retirement.

I said that I thought NJ was in trouble because many young people are leaving because they can’t afford to stay. At the same time many boomers are planning to leave to escape high taxes and to cash in on their houses. She suddenly got a very serious look on her face. “So, what’s going to happen”.

I have been trying to convince her to sell her house and move to South Jersey near my sister. Not great, but lower taxes and housing costs.

6/22/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dead is an interesting term. For a realtor to say dead they would have to have some very seriously overpriced properties on their hands and some very stupid clients who aren't seeing the writing on the wall.

Right now there is still a flicker of hope out there, but if inventory builds much over the summer, hope will be taking a hike.

I don't think anybody knows where the bottom is, but we sure ain't there yet. By the end of the year I think RE will be considered so ugly that even the thickest beer goggles wouldn't let you go home with him/her.

The questions now are about the rest of the economy. How housing dependent is it really? Which financial institutions are going to get sucked down the drain with by housing's collapse?

And finally the biggie: Are we talking recession or depression?

-Lindsey

6/22/2006 08:44:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

All -

It is quite interesting to see the mentality of the baby boomers...perhaps this generation clash will keep everything at a stand-off??

Who will give in first? The boomers or the X'ers?? lol!

6/22/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

I'm finally feeling like my wife and I are in a good place.

For the past few years, we have watched so many of our friends buying homes with 5% down, interest only, ARM type mortgages. They would tell me what a mistake we were making, real estate never goes down, it is NYC, etc.

I'd ask what about 88-92, when NY Metro lost 15% or so, and they would say it is different now. Of course, they could not tell me why.

We may yet have the last laugh.

6/22/2006 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My folks sold a couple years ago for about 85% of peak value, and now live upstate with much lower property taxes. They'd probably leave NY but for the income tax exemption on civil service pensions.

6/22/2006 09:16:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i'm motivated to find something for personal reasons so i put in a few offers on houses about 10% below current asking. to date the sellers have dropped their prices once approx. 5% from their original asking prices which were about 5% above peak prices last year/this spring (about the same in this town). so now the prices are at peak levels

a 10% discount considering the market has hit a wall and we're going into the dog days of summer is VERY reasonable. they said willing to entertain offers but not that low.

folks, sellers are still in denial about what's going on. i'll sit back, make serious interest on my down payment and wait for a call from at least one of them.

6/22/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Who will give in first? The boomers or the X'ers?? lol!

At this point, I think the average X’er who doesn’t already own, for the most part is priced out and couldn’t get in even if they wanted to. Wall Street X’ers or X’ers with daddy money are already “in”.

Prices will have to drop. The question really is; will X’ers jump in as soon as affordability allows them to do so? Or, will they play it smart and wait for the market to unravel? Do X’ers even have the numbers to soak up all of this inventory? Will enough of them even stay in NJ?

6/22/2006 09:21:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

lindsey, well said. no one knows the bottom but i too don't believe we're near it. sept/oct will be very telling on where this market goes but with 31k+ of inventory out there in NNJ i don't see a balanced market for quite some time as there is no way there's enough buyers out there to sop up this kind of inventory.

6/22/2006 09:24:00 AM  
Blogger mr.patient said...

there are just too many homes on the market both in nj and in the ny area, it is a simple law of supply and demand, prices must come down. i am looking for a home and i will start all offers at least 10-15 below asking. the greed of some people is disgusting
and a reality check for the sellers is needed.
bravo to grim love your blog!

6/22/2006 09:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone else see this guy, Ian Sheperdson, on CNBC this morning, he called for a 50% drop in RE sales within the next year...here's his blog...

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/

JM

6/22/2006 09:34:00 AM  
Blogger mr.patient said...

if you guys think jersey is bad try buying a house in a nice part of queens. 600k for attached 3bdrm
18 x100 that needs updating of all sorts, it is a nightmare

6/22/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

From Newsday:

New tomorrow in Newsday

Starting tomorrow, the pullout Real Estate section inside Part 2 will debut with not only a fresh look, but also brand new content.

Each week in "Why You Should Buy My House," homeowners will make a pitch - in their own words - on what makes their house so special.

6/22/2006 10:05:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Grim,

Do you think that the NAR has gotten to Newsday?

6/22/2006 10:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

X-Underwriter said...
As a mortgage underwriter from 2001 to 2005, I kept telling people what was going on. All I ever heard was "the market always goes up"
Nobody believed me when I said the banks were doing NINA loans left and right so anybody with a credit report could qualify for 95% financing with no questions asked
I get a major sense of satisfaction reading these articles now. Thanks Grim. I just wish it had happened sooner because now the drop back to normalcy will be a very steep one. A lot of decent people will be getting hurt

6/22/2006 08:34:22 AM

Well those decent people are partially to blame for the irrational prices.
They all deserve the consequences!

Babababababababa!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

NO MAAS to inflated home prices

Let greedy money grubbing sellers panic!

Bob

6/22/2006 10:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It`s not a BUYER`S MARKET until we see a 30% price reduction in HOME SALE prices !!!!

6/22/2006 10:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RentinginNJ said...
My mother doesn’t believe prices will drop either.

Bob's dad says prices are too high. he owns his house outright too.
He thinks many people are losing sleep worrying about the bills. Watch for the late night lights on.

No bids No buyers = No sales = PAPAPAPA PANIC!

Babababababa!!!!!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

Bob

6/22/2006 10:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

x-underwriter..

I was at a picnic last night, and one of the Dad's is in tech/report production for a large mtg. underwriter, and told me he has had a lot of free time lately at work.

Pat

6/22/2006 10:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It`s not a BUYER`S MARKET until we see about 30% price reduction in HOME SALE PRICES !!!!


Homes been on the market for months... then offer at least 20-30% below ask price !!!!

6/22/2006 10:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Greedy Money Grubbing sellers are in denial.

Let'em Sit and ROT!

BOOOOOOOOOOOyaaaaaaaaaaa

Bob

6/22/2006 10:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These grubbing sellers think they are entitled to something.

Show them they are entitled to 35% less!!!!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

6/22/2006 10:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob's dad says prices are too high. he owns his house outright too.


You refer to yourself in the 3rd person????

FREAKY!!!

6/22/2006 10:38:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

There is going to be a false start in here somewhere.

The people forced to sell will get their transactions in the databases. Suddenly a bunch of people will drop prices and volumes will pick up dramatically. Don't be fooled. It is the pent up demand and the impatient just satisfying their needs.

Let's say the volume spike will be in September and October, with the data being publicly available in December or so. You are not going to see the real death spiral until February 2007 or so, but again there will be good Wall Street money sloshing around at that time. I think the serious situation is going to be roughly April 2007.

If the situation falls apart in advance of this timeline, I would note it as a sign of "doom".

If you are on the fence now, you have to lowball 15-20%. If you "win" a home with just a 10% discount, you will suffer "winner's curse".

chicago

6/22/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Anonymous LeeS said...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060622/economy.html?.v=8

AP
Leading Indicators Fall 0.6 Pct. in May
Thursday June 22, 11:21 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Leading Indicators Fall 0.6 Percent in May; Points to Plodding Economy


NEW YORK (AP) -- A widely watched gauge of economic activity slipped by 0.6 percent in May, the Conference Board said Thursday, suggesting that the nation's economy could weaken in coming months.
The Conference Board, an industry-backed research group, said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell to 137.9 in May after it declined 0.1 percent to 138.7 in April.

ADVERTISEMENT


The May figure was in line with what analysts had expected.

The index is watched closely because it's designed to predict economic activity three to six months in the future.

It was index's third decline in six months, and the lowest since a reading of 136.9 in October. The drop in the index comes as gasoline prices run high, interest rates creep up, and the home sales market grows tepid.

"It does serve to confirm that the economy is slowing. That's something that should come as no surprise, but we had some conflicting numbers earlier this week," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp.

He noted that Tuesday's housing construction figures from the Commerce Department gave some market watchers a false sense of optimism. The department reported that builders started construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.957 million units last month, a better-than-expected 5 percent gain from April when construction had fallen 5.5 percent.

"We think it's clear the economy's slowing, and it will become increasingly evident as we move into the second half of the year," Vitner said.

Seven out of the ten indicators that comprise the leading index decreased in May -- the biggest negative contributor was average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, followed by consumer expectations, real money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, stock prices and vendor performance.

Three indicators improved in May -- manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, and interest rate spread.

Over the last six months, the biggest negative contributor to the leading index's drop has been declining housing permits.

6/22/2006 10:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in one of the NJ shore areas where people insist that prices will not drop here. They say it is different, more money is here, these are houses that people don't have to sell. I also see sellers still lisitng at ridiculously high asking prices.

6/22/2006 10:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am see a lot of realtors advertising themselves - no listings - just their photo. That makes me want to but a house...

6/22/2006 10:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...Who will give in first? The boomers or the X'ers?? ....X'ers will - we have more time on our side!

6/22/2006 10:58:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

A false bottom and suckers rally seem to be fairly common occurrences within the anatomy of a bubble. The Dow in 1929 and NASDAQ in 2000 both bounced back rather strongly after their initial drops, as bargain hunters sought their big “second chance”.

If the economy slows significantly and it looks like the inflation genie is firmly in the bottle, a rate cut by late fall isn’t completely out of the question. This, coupled with sellers dropping prices, could lead to a “dead cat bounce”.

6/22/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"The market isn't soft. It isn't even slow. It's dead."


Have to agree. Any recent closings we're seeing for May took place on deals signed months ago.

In the zips I'm watching, there are hundereds of huses listed, and only 2-3 under contract -- that translates into hundreds of realtors scrambling for the same 2-3 houses.

Must be brutal out there for sellers and realtors.

6/22/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Mr. Patient, why do you think my wife and I are looking in Maplewood?

I've been in Astoria since '99 and absolutely love the neighborhood. However, the prices are truly out of hand. One-family homes are going for $600 and need a bunch of workd.

2-families are going for $900k around the corner from our apartment. Weren't those supposed to be places that people would buy so that they could afford to live in the City? Live downstairs, rent out the upstairs?

I do live the neighborhood though, and will miss it when we leave.

This begs the question, do we think that NYC market is as overblown as NJ, particularly Queens? Will NYC have as hard a hit as NNJ?

6/22/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I need to find Road Rage statistics by metropolitan area.

I'm gonna start a road rage vs. price drop index and see if I can formulate a graph for the rate of listing price decreases in NJ.

Wouldn't it seem logical that people who exhibit road rage would have less fear tolerance, and therefore drop prices more quickly?

Pat

6/22/2006 11:15:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Leading indicators fall 0.6% in May

http://tinyurl.com/l4zcq

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.6% in May, suggesting that the economy is likely to grow at a "slow to moderate' pace in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday.

Economists were expecting the index to decline 0.4%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

...The leading index fell 0.1% in April, and has fallen in three of the past four months. It's down 0.2% over the past six months, with half of the 10 indicators showing weakness.

It's the first back-to-back declines in the leading index since early 2001.

The index is designed to help forecast turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead."

6/22/2006 11:30:00 AM  
Blogger desi dude said...

>>I am see a lot of realtors advertising themselves - no listings - just their photo. That makes me want to but a house...

I'm collecting RE magazines liek "Homes And land". I see the sma thing. Some Agents list pictures with SOld sticker on them , probably last year, NOt one picture of the current listing.

THis is in Ven County, CA

6/22/2006 11:35:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Mr. Oliver
This begs the question, do we think that NYC market is as overblown as NJ, particularly Queens? Will NYC have as hard a hit as NNJ?
6/22/2006 12:01:11 PM

Gato-hombre:
Yes and yes. However, I would say that the correlation is much stronger toward financial services.

As long as Goldman, Lehman, Bear, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, & Citi rake in record profits, NYC real estate will be OK. The money generated by these people, and in turn recycled throughout the city, keeps everything going.

Look at what all the banks have reported in the last week. This news is great, but we are only through the first two fiscal quarters of 2006. Six to seven months to go. Hold your breath.

chicago

6/22/2006 11:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DO NOT VISIT HOUSES

DO NOT BID ON HOUSES

DO NOTTING BUT WAIT!

MISERY WILL SET IN FOR THESE GREEDY MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS TRYING TO STICK YOU WITH HUGE MTG PAYMENTS WHILE THEY CASHOUT!

BY DOING THIS YOU TELL THEM TO SHOVE THEIR HOUSE UP THEIR ___.

BOOOOOYCOTT HOUSES

THE ENTITLEMENT GAME IS OVER.

Bob

6/22/2006 11:46:00 AM  
Blogger mr.patient said...

THE THINg IN NYC IS ESPECIALLY IN THE desirable parts of queens is that these older people who bought these homes for like 50k or less 30 years ago and have not touched them since are very stubborn and think they have the taj mahal.
i am willing to wait them out
as for the lic, williamsburgh and the like if you can plunk down 800 a sqare foot for a 1 bdrm god bless you i refuse to bend

6/22/2006 11:50:00 AM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

Mr. Oliver:

remember Queens and NNJ are not isolated markets, they are reflected directly by Manhttan, lets be honest 80% of homebuyers in the metro would live in Manhattan, if they could replicate/afford the quality of life. So a market correction that will bring Qns or Bklyn or even the Brnx back to real world affordability (ie: 3-4x "avg. US" salary of ~60-80K) would be catastrophic.

the people driving the prices up in Manhattan and bklyn (primarily) are no longer just people who make a lot of money - they are foreigners, the very wealthy and I would suspect some investment types. (B.Joel looking at 20MM house in Bklyn Hts.)

i am sure I am somewhat off the mark, but my point is the days of Archie Bunker and Ralph Kramden, even of Jerry S and his gang are long gone. It is now the surreality of Friends. NYC (includ. the boros and outliers are no longer for the working class)

6/22/2006 11:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't understand how anyone with a family making median salary, can afford to own a home in NNJ at all.

Even if you bought your house 20 years ago, or inherited it, if you earn 70K a year, how can you afford the taxes?

Pat

6/22/2006 12:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I don't understand how anyone with a family making median salary, can afford to own a home in NNJ at all.

Even if you bought your house 20 years ago, or inherited it, if you earn 70K a year, how can you afford the taxes?

Pat


Pat,

You can't. NNJ and NYC Metro is transforming. The economy is getting better and better in NYC Metro. And blue collar or lower income jobs are being phased out. Most new jobs are corporate professional jobs. If you are not a professional in a corporation. It would be very difficult to be settle in this area.

6/22/2006 12:27:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


ets be honest 80% of homebuyers in the metro would live in Manhattan, if they could replicate/afford the quality of life


No, they wouldn't. Some people love the urban life. Me, I prefer having a huge lot around me, total privacy and the like.

6/22/2006 12:34:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

grim ghost: but if you "could" you probably would. The grand mansions, The frick was a residence, wasn't it? think of gracie mansion. The island has been transformed of course, via necessity of workers and commerce, one would never be a real farmer on the island of manhattan, but at one point there were plenty of residences we would consider 'rural' today.

Ever see pictures of when they laid out queens boulevard and the elevated, there were no streets our even houses. It was a hypothetical statement

6/22/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have watched the up to 900k in Mendham inventory grow from the mid to late twenties to 67 (to date) and prices are still not falling on some homes. It seems like the worst looking 2 bedroom condos in the Commons are the longest holdouts and their are currently 13 listings in the Commons!

I guess it will just take months and months and months of houses sitting for the sellers to get the message.

6/22/2006 12:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 6:22:

If that were the case, then how can we explain the median income statistics..for example, for Bergen County? About a million people live there, with a 60%+ home ownership rate. More than 60% live in the same house they did five years ago (est.)

The median income is 75K. Most people are families.

Somehow, these people are affording to live there. They are paying their taxes, paying for their children to go to daycare, paying for gas.

Pat

6/22/2006 12:51:00 PM  
Blogger mr.patient said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/22/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reports like this really scare the $h!t out of me...I myself was hoping for significant declines in prices. but now I found out my sister will be closing on a property in a couple of weeks.
her friend also bought a townhouse in vegas recently.
we had quite a debate weeks ago when they mentioned their intention of buying properties. believe me I tried to talk them out of it. I tried to mention every piece of article and comment I've come across on this blog that I could remember. as we were arguing things I read on this blog kept ringing in my head - "bagholder", "greater fool", etc.
God I wish you guys were with me. I was like "Grim!! ChicagoFinance! help me out here!!"
needless to say I failed. God help them.

6/22/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

If that were the case, then how can we explain the median income statistics

If you bought your house a while ago, you can definitely make ends meet on $75k. Lets say you bought 5 years ago for $250k and put down 20% and your property taxes are $8k/year. You would be paying under $2k/month and about 1/3 of your income would go to housing if you made $75k.

Today, that house would list for $500k. The same family that lives in that house today wouldn’t be able to afford to buy their own house.

A young family that makes $75k today, but does not own, simply cannot afford to live in NNJ, unless they are happy renting a run down apartment forever.

6/22/2006 01:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok, now put a kid in daycare for $900 a month, and to be conservative, only one car payment at $300.

They are eating macaroni and cheese, even if they bought 5 years ago, no?

Pat

6/22/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Don't forget that the house will be reassesed at $500,000 and the taxes will double several months after the closing.
Houses for sale list their current tax bill which may or may not reflect the current market value. Chances are, they'll go way up

6/22/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interest rates up over 20% on mtg's.

But the greedy money grubbing sellers feel they are entitlted!

Do NOt Bid on Houses

Do Not visit houses!

Let'em sit and rot!

Bababababababa

Boooooooycott Houses

Bob

6/22/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And when you say they are only paying 1/3 of income toward housing, I cannot get that number based on net income.

Remember $75K median is gross.

They have to live on maybe $55K of that.

I can only guess that many, many people are renting, with a few people at very high salaries who owning the other 40% of the homes.

6/22/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

now that we are sliding towards the Tax issue, let me throw this out there...if R.E. taxes set me back $1000 a month and interest payment is $300 - $1000/month; is it finacially responsible to say : RENT ?

6/22/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You buy and can't afford with rational mtg loan

YOU DESERVE THE CONSEQUENCES!

Bababbabababa

BOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

No buyers=No sales = Papapapa panicking sellers and starving realtors

Bob

6/22/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I personally think that Queens and LI are COMPLETLY out of wack.. My sister lives in Floral Park on the border of queens a 40X100 lot pays 10K in taxes.. I need to mention in this section of Floral Park it used to be single families.. It seems now there is a big push from other areas of queens where 2 or three families are living in 1 house. The neighborhood has changed to the point that she can not let her daughter play out front..There was a small riot recently.. Her neighbor is asking 600K for her house and got it. That to me is crazy.. I can also tell you My mother lives in a very nice neighborhood in LI and her taxes are about 50K per year.. All of the old neighbors have sold and the only people who are buying are older Arabs (they paid 5M in cash for a house down the block) or Asian. My Mom was dissapointed because there are no young families buying in her area because the taxes are just crazy.

6/22/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

booooyaaaaanomaasnonotting

6/22/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Each week in "Why You Should Buy My House," homeowners will make a pitch - in their own words - on what makes their house so special.


Can't wait to see what the owners of a POS will have to say.

"My POS is better than any other POS because my POS has wood paneling in the living room and is wrapped in aluminum siding."

6/22/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

clarification - when I mentioned foreginers as a buying force before I did not mean immigrants, I meant wealthy foreign nationals who may be buying as an investment or part time or holiday apt./house

I think few immigrants come with the fabled "shopping bags of cash" and that does not sustain a market.

No the market was driven up by moronic 'mericans who thrive on easy credit and mortaging their future.

6/22/2006 01:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Seems to me all you people
want to do is root from the sidelines. Why not get involved in the action instead of knocking
New Jersey, home of the Devils.
(and a new facility)

6/22/2006 01:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 2:37
See comments under the heading "Exodus from New Jersey" for many many reasons that people who post here like NJ.

Posting on blogs these days IS GETTING INVOLVED!

You think no politicians read this?

The stuff people post the most on blogs is how online news picks their pieces for the next day. Haven't you noticed that?

Bunch of postings, yelling and hollering here about inflation, and BOOM, next day CNN.com has a big article on it.

Pat

6/22/2006 01:46:00 PM  
Anonymous LeeS said...

Here's another reason we may see boomers selling sooner rather than later:

Age 50 ... and little saved
When you hit that milestone, you've got to act fast. Here's a catch-up plan to follow.
By Clint Willis, MONEY Magazine contributing writer
June 22, 2006: 11:54 AM EDT
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/22/retirement/huarte_0706.moneymag/index.htm

NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - Some questions just can't wait. Barbara Huarte was sitting at a chamber of commerce breakfast last April when she suddenly turned to her neighbor - a local financial adviser - and blurted out, "I'm turning 50 soon, and I've just started planning for retirement! Any ideas?"

Good question.


As Barbara Huarte nears 50, her paltry savings are suddenly a worry.

More from Money Magazine
Age 50 ... and little saved

Manage your mortgage, save thousands

High costs keeping Americans home


Best Places to Live
Current Issue
Subscribe to Money

Save more, work longer
Say you're 50 with $25,000 saved. Saving a little more each month and working 5 years longer provides a big boost to income.

Plan A Plan B
Monthly contribution $250 $350
Annual return 7% 7%
Retirement age 65 70
Annual retirement income to age 90 $10,676 $22,732


Assumes funds are held in a tax-deferred account and the annual return drops to 5% in retirement.
Source: T. Rowe Price


Building a retirement stash from scratch
Catch-up tips from financial adviser Helen Modly.
1. Save a third of pay
In addition to directing 20% of her salary into her 401(k), Barabara Huarte should have another 10% to 20% transferred automatically from her bank to a broker or fund company, says Modly.
2. Plan for emergencies
As Huarte builds up savings outside of retirement plans, she should keep the first $25,000 in money-market funds, which pay as much as 4.8% today.
3. Keep costs low
The less she pays for money management, the more her money can grow. Modly suggests Huarte divide her $10,000 rollover IRA among three ETFs, putting 40% in iShares Russell 3000 (IWV); 20% in iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), a fund of foreign stocks; and 40% in iSharesLehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY).


The 49-year-old had once run her own company and had recently embarked on a new career, and yet she has little to show for her success. She has roughly $30,000 split between a 401(k) and an IRA that's sitting in a money-market fund, and not much else.

For 15 years Huarte ran her own business providing cosmetics services and supplies to television and film production companies. She phased out the company between 2002 and 2004 and found a better-paying job selling communications systems.

"I broke the cardinal rule of self-employment," she says. "I didn't pay myself first. I put everything back into my business."

What's more, Huarte doesn't own a home, so unlike many of her neighbors in Morristown, N.J., she isn't sitting on a pile of home equity.

"For most of my life, I haven't thought much about money," she says. "When I realized that I was completely unprepared for retirement, I knew I had to do something."

Huarte's predicament is a common one. The Employee Benefits Research Institute reports that more than half of workers 45 to 54 have saved less than $50,000 for retirement. A recent Fidelity study found that the average boomer is on track to replace just 60% of his or her current income in retirement, even with help from Social Security and pensions.

Why so unprepared? The easy explanation is

6/22/2006 01:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, Lee, I caught that one, too. She was from North Jersey, I think.

6/22/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

anon 2:37:

I have put in two bids on houses in NNJ in the last 2 months (sorry Bob; or maybe it should be Thanks Bob as I underbid one, and the other would have made me a bagholder) i think others here are invested or waiting to invest...




I fell for it didn't I?

6/22/2006 01:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wfmukerm, say three Hail Mary's and two Our Father's and good luck.

6/22/2006 01:59:00 PM  
Anonymous LeeS. said...

Yes, she was from Morristown.

As for the bidder, I went to an open house last weekend (actually more like 4), I prefer to stay in tune with the market. One house I went to was nice, and I asked why they were selling after only 4 years, answer: divorce. I asked what they paid, realtor said he was the original realtor and they paid $275,000. I told him I would offer $295,000, they were asking $395,000. I don't think he liked me. :)

6/22/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Anonymous lees. said...

Oh, and btw, I've had realtors call me back after open houses, but NEVER the very next day. Man are they getting desperate. Luckily, I only left one house my real number, just to see what would come of it. And now they are asking "What did you like, or dislike about the house? Is there anything you would like to see improved?" Yes, the price. :)

6/22/2006 02:05:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

New Jersey real estate was a much different place 5 years ago.

It was affordable.

If I posted a list of sales from 1999-2001, you wouldn't believe the numbers. Having just pulled some old sales records off the tax databases, even I didn't believe them.

grim

6/22/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Very true Grim. I sold my home in 2001... due to divorce.

Would cost me way over double to buy it back.

Oh, the heartache!

Of the prices, not the divorce.

6/22/2006 02:17:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

keep an eye on stuff like this.....
================================
Hedge Funds Hit
Rough Weather
But Stay Course

By HENNY SENDER
June 22, 2006; Page C1

Amid the market tumult of the past two months, a handful of hedge funds have shut down. But even as markets have become tougher to navigate, problems among hedge funds remain fairly well contained.

As ever more money has poured into these investment pools for wealthy people and institutional investors, regulators have expressed concern that a rough period could cause hedge-fund failures and market mayhem in a manner similar to the downfall of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. LTCM had an estimated $80 billion in assets at the time of its near collapse. That hedge fund's problems crippled financial markets, as it dumped securities across the globe, triggering plunging prices and losses at other hedge funds and securities firms. Regulators led a push to have Wall Street firms rescue the hedge fund.

[edit]

Hedge funds are vulnerable to "runs on the bank," where investors worried about their investments demand withdrawals all at once. Thus, a string of difficulties in the market can quickly evolve into a crisis for a hedge fund as managers sell more and more losing investment positions to satisfy those seeking to withdraw their money.

[edit]

"We were too concentrated and too leveraged," Mr. Georg says, noting that KBC's funds had borrowed, or "leveraged up," as much as six times their cash on hand in an effort to amplify bets. "If we did not have so much leverage, we could have liquidated without pain," he says. People close to the Ospraie Point Fund that closed describe a similar scenario.

Pockets of concern remain. Market participants say that hedge funds increasingly have made similar bets, resulting in so-called crowded trades.

When riskier markets are rising, investors comfort themselves that trading volume is sufficient to permit an easy exit, should things turn ugly. But many markets such as India, which were easy to trade when the direction of trading was up, lurched lower in jerks and tumbles in recent weeks as everyone sought to exit. Risk models tend to underestimate how hard it is to get out of a market when the exits are stuffed with folks trying to do the same thing.

"You can't stress test a crowded trade," said Bradley Ziff, who led the Mercer Oliver Wyman study. "Everyone is worried about how to handle a situation when everyone piles in."

That is also the case with the latest generation of complicated corporate-debt securities, known as structured products. These include slices of corporate debt, sometimes involving as many as 100 different companies. Each slice is rated in terms of default risk. In a demonstration of the power of financial engineering, these slices generally offer higher yields than the debt of a single company carrying the same risk rating.

Many analysts wonder how to accurately value these untested securities, especially because many are custom designed to meet the preference of investors. "There are significant issues on where you [value the investments] and whether you may have trouble [realizing the value when selling them]," said the chief risk officer at one major Wall Street firm.

Hedge funds aren't the only ones with such potential headaches. "Hedge funds are not the biggest user of structured products," said Andrew Feldstein, founder and chief executive of BlueMountain Capital Management L.P., adding that BlueMountain is positioning itself for a reversal in the credit markets, albeit cautiously.

If the rating companies downgrade the ratings of the slices within these structured products, some investors -- especially nonhedge-fund managers such as insurance companies, banks and pension funds -- may be forced under their investment mandates to dump them. With such traditional money managers "downgrades are a major potential problem," said Michael Hintze, founder and chief executive of CQS, a $5 billion London-based hedge fund.

The danger of untested products is magnified by heavy borrowing. As the example of KBC shows, it is hard to know except in hindsight when leverage is excessive. But the speed of the withdrawal from emerging markets suggests many investors used lots of leverage, forcing speedier liquidations than might otherwise be the case. "We live in a leveraged world," said Bill McCauley, chief executive of hedge-fund group AVM L.P. in Boca Raton, Fla. "And this market environment will test it."

Perhaps the biggest concern of hedge-fund managers themselves is directed at the trading desks on Wall Street that bet with house money. "The [investment] banks support us in our trading, they extend leverage to us, and at the same time they are many times more leveraged than we are," said Mr. Hintze of CQS. "That is the potential danger."

One test will come at the end of this month. So far, June has been ugly for many hedge funds' investment results. With the end of June a widely used withdrawal date, many fund managers are holding their breath.

6/22/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

All the various posts here, talk about meduan incomes, and income statistics, and a young family of four, and never being able to affrod to live in this area.

And Wall Street money will keep this market alive, its all just a bunch of nonsense in the end.


my older brother told me that when he bought during the last bubble, ti was the same talk, incomes not able to afford prices, the go-go 80's on Wall St. He said there was articles and news reports all the time, about how a whole generation would be closed out of home ownership forever.


Well guess what that did not turn out to be the case then,and it wont turn out to be the case this time. Oh and eh bouth the hype at the time, and sold 11 years alter at the same price, thats a long, long time people.

No area including NYC, and its oulying boros, and NNJ, and Westchester and all the rest will be immune from the downturn.


Wall St money please people not this again, most of the big money people on the street already own This is the same crap i hear form neighbors and friends who know little to nothing about the steeet not alone work there. should nto all this Wall St money be sucking up the huge inventory thats in the market now, its just common sense people.

Oh and the street has contracted as far as jobs, oh yes employment for the rainmakers, but much of the mid manger and back office jobs whcih were good paying jobs have either been automated, or outsourced or both.

I repear the NYC metro area is not immune, it is that simple.

6/22/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

If I posted a list of sales from 1999-2001, you wouldn't believe the numbers.

Grim,
Out of curiosity, could you post them?

6/22/2006 02:23:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

[hedge fund/prime brokerage/wall street] x BLOW-UP = NNJ RE DEATH + NYC RE DEATH

6/22/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

LOL, richinnorthnj.

Been there, done that.

6/22/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Blogger mr.patient said...

i get calls from realtors all the time, in fact one called me today and said i have a house for you (lol) well its only 100k more than i said was my absolute top number, these people are desperate and it shows i told her call me in 90 days i am mr. patient

6/22/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

x-underwriter,

Working on it, it'll be on the front page when it goes up.

jb

6/22/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Renting in NJ said "Today, that house would list for $500k. The same family that lives in that house today wouldn’t be able to afford to buy their own house."

Well said and worth repeating. There you have it, that thesis covers RE in NYC, Queens or NNJ. prices will come down in a big way. When I talk RE with people they are so naive it is mind boggling. A biggie is a refier who says "the bank's appraiser said my house is worth x"
They don't understand their liability is the banks asset. Dummies.
To the notion that Wall Street will do great and save NYC, think again.

6/22/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

anon 3:44 said

"They don't understand their liability is the banks asset."

right...why would they let the mkt collapse?

they got themselves into this mess, no? 0% down, 120% financing?

If this is the case then the next decade should be the decade of the write off.....won't this destroy Mortgage backed securities and the like?

I don't know if "Wall St" will save nyc RE on its own, but somehting has pushed NYC apartments to an avg. price of 1MM

6/22/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

History has proven over and over again that NO Governement, Bank, etc. can control any market for an EXTENDED period of time.

6/22/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

government

6/22/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Ok, now put a kid in daycare for $900 a month, and to be conservative, only one car payment at $300.

They are eating macaroni and cheese, even if they bought 5 years ago, no?
Pat


It’s very possible. I never said it would be easy or fun or that you would live like a king, only that would could make ends meet on $75k if you bought your house for $250k 5 years ago and put 20% down. Yes, you will probably be stretched and might have to eat macaroni and cheese for a few years.

However, that same family today would simply not be able to buy the house they live in for $500k. There is no amount of macaroni and cheese or Ramen noodles or car repairs with duct tape and bubble gum that can stretch a budget far enough. They simply wouldn’t be taking enough in to cover all their bills.

6/22/2006 03:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Listen to this. I buyer bought a houses for something like $700,000 and the closing is in about 2 weeks. However they have to sell their existing home.
You guessed it their asking price is ridiculous. Can't wait to watch this unfold.
House probably worth about $75k less than asking about now. a year or two about 175k less so the bagholder who buys should be underwater a nice amount IF IT SELLS!

6/22/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is no amount of macaroni and cheese or Ramen noodles or car repairs with duct tape and bubble gum that can stretch a budget far enough. They simply wouldn’t be taking enough in to cover all their bills.

Which is where the credit cards come in. Up until recently, you could just do a cash out refi, pay off the balances, and voila! you have a clean slate on your credit cards AND your monthly nut went down a couple hundred bucks due to ridiculously low interest rates.

That game's over now, and people are going to realize what they have gotten themselves into. It's bound to be ugly.

jw

6/22/2006 04:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lindsey,

You send early in the comments that the real question is: are we heading towards a recession or depression.

I firmly agree we are heading at least towards a recession. As you said, the question is: how bad?

Andy

6/22/2006 04:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jw is right on target...

Credit cards make up the difference. Bottom line, if you are not making over 130,000/year, you are eating mac and cheese.

Thats hoping you don't have more than 1 kid.

6/22/2006 04:40:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

A lot of gloom and doom here. Did anything happen that was good today? Did someone sell their house for exactly what they wanted and make good money? Did a buyer go for the home of their dreams and not worry about lowballing and boycotting? Did someone wake up and be thankful that they live in the greatest country there ever was and that everything will be just fine?

It's time to be happy and to not wallow in the supposed misery of others.

6/22/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

REInvestor,

It's only your way or noway. maybe you are the gloomster. wanting buyers to lock themselves into monthly salve payments. I say shove it!

Many are quite happy with a nice cash downpayment sleeping well at night and patiently waiting for the idiots to go bust.It's their problem and they made their own bed.
Others that have plenty of money saved up for retirment are not looking to ripoff a buyer and set them into mtg slavery. You think that's fun putting someone into monthly debt slavery REIN?
House Prices are a RIPOFF!
Babababababa
BOOOOOOOOOycott Houses!

Bob

6/22/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I wish I could live my life in some kind of blissful ignorance. Far far away, in the land of butterflies and lollipops. The kind of place where a magic fairy makes sure there is always a happy ending.

grim

6/22/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

everyone, for those houses still priced anywhere near the peak selling prices from either last summer or this past spring are SITTING. for a few months i've been personally tracking about 100 properties across 9 of the top towns in northern nj. about 9 are pending. that's right, 9. these are all nice houses. the problem is THEY'RE ALL OVERPRICED. yep, every single one of them. a few suckers bought in due to being out when the memo came in that the bubble is deflating.

those who know me know i'm aggressively looking for a house due to personal reasons but i will not pay asking today. i need at least a 10-15% haircut before even considering a property that has everything i need for the next 7-10 years.

sellers are still in denial. so what? their houses will sit and they won't sell. if they're serious very soon they'll start dropping their prices enough to raise one eyebrow. until then as booyah bob says pay them no heed. track the price reductions on the internet but do nothing. everyone else appears to be doing the same. the market at least according to the properties i'm tracking looks almost completely dead.

6/22/2006 06:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Been looking at houses in Westchester since February - April. Seen about 41. Out of the 40, 35 are still on realtor.com. My realtor told me 2 were in contract and 3 were withdrawn. She said her office is down over 50% yoy for April and May. She said June is worse than April and May.

Check out http://westchesterny.blogspot.com
for some good discussion on Westchester RE.

6/22/2006 07:00:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Did anything happen that was good today?"


Yes! Inventory continued to climb, prices continued to drop, and yet another 'under contract' house dropped back onto the market!


Currently, there are 31,377 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.

http://www.gsmls.com/

6/22/2006 07:05:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

A realtor who operates in the Midtown direct area (Summit, Millburn, etc) just started a blog this week:


"If you'd like the latest Otteau Report, it really backs everything I have experienced in this market. I have it in pdf so I can email it to you at your request, but I can't seem to figure out how to post a pdf here."

http://sueadler.blogspot.com/



Now, she's a nice lady, so don't be mean to her, but it might be interesting to see how she reacts to a few 'Northern NJ Bubble' visitors to her new blog.

Again, be nice. :)

6/22/2006 07:12:00 PM  
Blogger Moon Man said...

The vast majority of posters here are RENTERS............those poor souls to stupid or broke to have participated in the real estate goldrush of the last 15 years.............Wish all you want but it wont help a damn bit. You are NOT going to EVER own your own home. You will be paying ME or others like me for a roof over your head..............LOL
IDIOTS!

6/22/2006 11:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Moon Man said...
The vast majority of posters here are RENTERS............those poor souls to stupid or broke to have participated in the real estate goldrush of the last 15 years.............Wish all you want but it wont help a damn bit. You are NOT going to EVER own your own home. You will be paying ME or others like me for a roof over your head..............LOL
IDIOTS!

Moon Man: you now not who you are talking too, little man :) Only going by the "stats"; incomes, net worth etc.

6/23/2006 01:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Moon Man let's see how did you find this blog? After all you obviously are much smarter and richer than all of us, your a housing bull...hmmm, maybe you are experiencing your own sort of a conundrum; you are a landlord who lost tenants in the last 5 years, because they became :)...homeowners sort of, now you have decided to unload a property or two and you can't.

6/23/2006 01:44:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Don't bother responding to the trolls, it only makes them come back more often.

grim

6/23/2006 05:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

moon man, he will be singing a different song in a year or two....

If he hasn't committed suicide by then at realizing what he once thought was worth millions, is now worth nada.

Land of milk and honey and lolipops....

I just might have to come in and buy his home for pennies on the dollar just for kicks...

6/23/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

moon man, he will be singing a different song in a year or two....

If he hasn't committed suicide by then at realizing what he once thought was worth millions, is now worth nada.

Land of milk and honey and lolipops....

I just might have to come in and buy his home for pennies on the dollar just for kicks...

6/23/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

There are 167 houses for sale in the town I track in Westchester. You can count the number that have sold since the beginning of April on one hand. Inventory is up from 45 last September (almost 4X). Realtors' constant reassurance to sellers of a "soft landing" is costing them sales

6/23/2006 08:07:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Moon Man said...
The vast majority of posters here are RENTERS............those poor souls to stupid or broke to have participated in the real estate goldrush of the last 15 years.............Wish all you want but it wont help a damn bit. You are NOT going to EVER own your own home. You will be paying ME or others like me for a roof over your head......


Moon, I hope to see you continue your participation here. There needs to be more balance on this blog rather than everyone just being in the same amen corner.

What you're seeing here is a class war between renters and homeowners/real estate investors. They hate and resent us and are doing whatever they can to mete out what they feel is "payback". Never mind the fact, that no one has done anything to them. They priced themselves out by greedily bidding and fighting over houses. After doing that, they have the temerity to blame homeowners, investors and realtors for their not being able to afford a home.

6/23/2006 09:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

richard:
"track the price reductions on the internet but do nothing."

I have been doing exactly that since last fall.

6/23/2006 09:12:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

Just FYI, some of us had nothing to do with the recent run up. I was in college when it started.

Regardless, I don't see anything moral or immoral about wanting to see a reversion to the mean. This isn't class warfare. People just want to get a good deal

6/23/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

I own a home and made money in the real estate in the past. I also own a small commercial building too.

I just don't like real estate agents lying to people.

Also for the health of overall economy, the housing price has to go down.

I feel bad for the recent college graduates or young couples who cannot afford to buy a decent house in Bergen County.

In the mean time, I am waiting for the price to come down such that I can get back into real estate again.

Not everyone here are renters.

6/23/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

REINVESTOR101:

I am sorry that you feel that way. I wish we could convince you otherwise. I honestly think that we [collectively] have done a real service. However, I do appreciate your continued willingness to participate.

Regards,
chicago

6/23/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Reinvestor, you are off base. "Stupid or broke?" Hardly. The more you read this board, and the forum, you will realize that most of us are neither.

Some of us are renters, because we didn't feel like following our friends into homeownership in a bubble market using ARMs and interest only loans, with 5% down. Seemed like a sucker's bet then, and even more so now.

We listened as they told us:
*You have to buy now.
*Real estate never goes down.
*NY (LI, NJ) is different.
*This market can't crash.
*Don't worry about having no equity in your new home. When (not if, but when) the market goes up you will be fine.

I surely don't wish hard times on my friends, but I have a few whose financial situation scares me. Personally, I don't know how they sleep at night.

As someone who watched his parents try to sell their home on Lawn Guyland in the early 90s, I know exactly what a down market can do to home values.

6/23/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I surely don't wish hard times on my friends, but I have a few whose financial situation scares me. Personally, I don't know how they sleep at night.

Mr Oliver, if you feel that way, I expect that you will be on the front lines in reigning in Bob who has consistently made plain his wish for sellers, investors and realtors to starve. Pat and Unrealtor has consistently made their wishes along these lines clear as well! They all need to be repudiated for me to be convinced that streaks of meaness don't exist here

6/23/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I am sorry that you feel that way. I wish we could convince you otherwise. I honestly think that we [collectively] have done a real service. However, I do appreciate your continued willingness to participate.

Regards,
chicago


I must admit that there's been an lot of information that's been shared on this blog Chicago and I do intend to continue participating here. It's a lonely job--but someone's got to do it!

6/23/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why in the world, at this point in time, would anybody consider a 10% -15% reduction a "deal"?

Seriously, I'm thinking at 20-30% off right now you'll still get burned. But at least you could maybe live with it.

But 10%??!!!! that's just plain crazy!

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