Thursday, August 17, 2006

No Bailout For The Wealthy

From the APP:

Bailout for wealthy decried if they choose to gamble

Kristina Fiore said she's got little sympathy for wealthy people who build multimillion-dollar homes on vulnerable waterfront property, then want help when Mother Nature makes a mess there.

"I'm honestly tired of hearing people complaining (about storm damage) who have put so much money into a home," Fiore said. "What they spend is their business, but they should know they're building in a vulnerable area. Then (after damage), local taxpayers get stuck cleaning it up. I don't think it's fair. When FEMA pays, that still comes out of our pockets."

After reading a letter to the editor in the Press supporting a proposal for a state catastrophe fund, financed by insurance premium dollars, Fiore argued that the last thing the state needs is another government program taking money from the middle class (via insurance premiums) to benefit the wealthy.

"It's increasing the size of government and, again, passing the cost to the taxpayers," said Fiore, who works in human resources at an area technical-services company. Her letter on the subject, published July 23 and reprinted at right, was judged by the Press editorial staff as the best letter of the month.
...
"If you're going to build on the beach, it may get flooded, that's common sense," she said. The taxes, and the use of eminent domain to take waterfront homes from middle-income families to build luxury condominiums for the wealthy, all point to how New Jersey allows "the elite pushing the middle class out. From the government down to the people moving in, that's the bottom line."

89 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

amen

8/17/2006 05:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But what happens to those beautiful economies when wealthy folks stop spending in those areas?

Would they stop, or continue to rebuild, producing the income flow necessary to support those beach areas? Higher income spenders expect that if their money flows, government money must also flow.

Middle and lower income families cannot do it. The beaches, which contribut so much to the NJ economy, would eventually look like a war zone. So what's the break even point for perfect balance?

Pat

8/17/2006 05:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agent Code of Ethics

The Code establishes time-honored and baseline principles that come from the collective experiences of REALTORS® since the Code of Ethics was first established in 1913. Those principles can be loosely defined as:
Loyalty to clients;
Fiduciary (legal) duty to clients;
Cooperation with competitors;
Truthfulness in statements and advertising; and non-interference in exclusive relationships that other REALTORS® have with their clients.

8/17/2006 06:23:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

From the Republican (Mass.):

From stocks to houses and from boom to bust

Remember the housing boom?

It won't be all that long before someone asks that question - without the slightest trace of irony in his voice.

The housing boom is over. It's over in Massachusetts and it's over across much of the nation. After quarter upon quarter and year upon year in which houses sold - and prices rose - like never before, 28 states and the District of Columbia saw declines in the sales of single-family houses and condominiums in the second quarter of the year.
...
ow, that movie is playing again, this time with the deflating of the real estate bubble. It is possible that the wild ride that the housing market had been on will come to a tamer end. While that is everyone's wish, it is impossible to forecast with any degree of certainty whether the housing market will cool rather than crash, coming in for a so-called soft landing.

What's indisputable is that the once white-hot real estate boom is no more. And that there is no next bubble that is evident on the horizon.

8/17/2006 06:48:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I thought comodities were the next bubble.

the Dotcom bubble overlapped with housing and housing has overlapped with commodities. Just my opinion.

8/17/2006 07:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed if people want expensive coastal properties they must also take resposnbility for the risk.

8/17/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let your voices be heard. Send comments!! Link below

"New Jersey has launched a Web site geared toward keeping residents informed and involved in the special session to tackle property tax reform. " A link to the state site -->
Voice Your Opinion!!

If link above isn't working, the URL is as follows:
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/
PropertyTaxSession/
PropertyTaxForum.asp

8/17/2006 07:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

$400,000 to $500,000 startter homes

How long does it take the avg 28 year old to save up $80,000 to $100,000?

Real estate is going into a nosedive.
All the mfed morons need to do is tighten banking reserves and regulations and this would shut down the housing market until prices dropped to reality.

8/17/2006 07:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Metroplexual said...
I thought comodities were the next bubble


I totally disagree. I don't want to waste any space here explaining my reasons. If you like I will comment off line.

BC Bob

8/17/2006 07:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inventories are piling up.

Take your pick on the clearance racks at 50% off sales.

8/17/2006 07:54:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

The inventory numbers completely slipped my mind yesterday, I wouldn't have had the time anyway.

Here are the GSMLS changes for the week..

Bergen
8/9 - 1295
8/16 - 1304

Essex
8/9 - 2670
8/16 - 2648

Hudson
8/9 - 162
8/16 - 165

Morris
8/9 - 3796
8/16 - 3842

Sussex
8/9 - 2146
8/16 - 2164

Somerset
8/9 - 2648
8/16 - 2668

Sussex
8/9 - 2173
8/16 - 2195

Union
8/9 - 2583
8/16 - 2614

Warren
8/9 - 1132
8/16 - 1138

Total
8/9 - 18605
8/16 - 18738 (0.7% Increase)

grim

8/17/2006 07:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How much relistings have recurred?

Unethical industry spinning and manipulating to fool last of the few FOOLS left.

8/17/2006 07:56:00 AM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

I do not think we have even begun to see the start of unethical realtors. Once there yearly salary drops by 40%, they will try every trick in the book to move properties. The worse is yet to come.

The only good thing that may come out of the above scenario is more regulations by the state on realtors

8/17/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reminds me of those Oh-so-well spent tax dollars on those God-forsaken sound barries all over Rt 80. If you are there and they put in a highway in your backyard - I can see the logic. However, you bought your house cheaper because it was next to the highway. I dont want to subsidize your whines now because your were stupid in where you bought.

8/17/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rats are jumping ship.

I just enjoy watching this bloated bubble POP!

Poooooooofffffff goes the equity...if there is any in the first place.
Dummies deserve to get pummeled.

NO BIDS NO LOOKING NO INQUIRIES

NO HOPE!

illiquidity has its disadvantages.....condos are just getting creamed...do not pay attention to anything coming out of the NAR!

The Real estate market is in nosedive!

Friend of a friend trying to sell a house. Last year started out at $5.5 mil now in low $4's and NOOOOOTTT"""ING! NO BITES NO INTEREST even the big money are NOT buying...hehehehee


BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/17/2006 08:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not many fools left. Really. I've commented about some Joes and Janes on the street who have told me about housing tanking.

Today at Pathmark, the lady behind the deli counter was laughing about it with the guy from the potato chip company.

Although, to counter, a friend in a middle-income housing [4-5 homes per acre] residential SF development told me two homes just sold for asking price. I confirmed it elsewhere.

But that's out of more than 200 homes currently for sale in the same school district +$50k or -$50K from what those two homes sold for. So I'll keep checking the sales. In that price range last year, in that district, less than 200 homes sold all summer and through the peak period. Months.

Pat

8/17/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bleed'em dry....

FREE MARKETS WORK IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.

HEHEHEHE

If you have a down payment of 20% you will be in big demand the next few years.

DO NIOT BE IN A RUSH TO HAND OVER YOUR TREASURE CHEST. BUYERS TODAY AND IN LAST 24 MONTHS ARE AND WILL BE UNDERWATER SHORTLY.

Patience!

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/17/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

How much relistings have recurred?

My experience as far a NJMLS:
Re-listing does not "fool" anyone except a lazy or very inexperienced agent who checks the “hot sheet” for daily updates.
It may also create another agent open house so that these agents, who may now have a buyer looking for that particular style, will be aware of it.
It’s also done when you’re changing the listing description to generate interest. Say you have a mother-daughter but aren’t getting any looks. Then you may want to re-list with out this info just to get some people through the door.

But if you’re looking at the public version of the MLS you’ll also beware of the change due to the new MLS number. But that’s about it since the public MLS doesn’t list price changes anyway. You would need to track that yourself.

If you’re using an agent to find a house, ask them to look at the history of MSL listing so that you can be aware of all price changes, attorney reviews, “back-on-market”, withdrawals and re-listings.

In any case, it's the average and median price that's everyone wants to see go down and re-listing doesn't effect that.

And, no. I am not nor have I ever been a Realtor or real estate agent.

8/17/2006 08:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pat: The middle classes once were the bulwark of great swaths of the NJ coast--before it was a haven for bonus babies and the leveraged classes. LBI, in particular, was in the middle to latter part of the last century, largely a place of modest cottages used as summer getaways by unionized laborers and their ilk.

Returning vacation spots to within reach of persons of moderate means would not tank the coastal economy; it would broad it. Of course there will always be havens for the poor, put-upon rich; life is like that. Might the shore look like a war zone? Yes, a class war zone, where modesty could again occasinally trump ostentation. The shore would be well served by remembering its roots.

-Jamey

8/17/2006 08:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Real Buyers, Ya know the scarce few out there that have a 20% down payment (real assets) you own this market.

DO NOT TRUST ANYONE WITH YOUR MONEY.
YOU WANT TO BUY SOMETHING TODAY AND WATCH IT FALL IN PRICE?

WELL THEN DO NOT BUY TODAY OR GIVE A GRUBBING SELLER ANY HOPE OF SELLING AT THESE RIPOFF PRICES.

BLEED'EM DRY

Bob

8/17/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heh, make that "broaden." In no way did I mean to disparage the fairer sex--in any socioeconomic class.

-Jamey

ps: Does anybody else here think that the word verification graphic looks like the sound-effects screens from the old Batman TV series? ("Biff! Pow!")

8/17/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lOOK AT IT THIS WAY....THESE GRUBBING SELLERS ARE TRYING TO STICK YOU WITH THEIR DEFLATING BLOATED HOUSE.
THEY MADE ALL THE APPRECIATION AND THEY WANT YOU TO HOLD THE BAG ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE LIVED IN THE SAME HOUSE FOR 20+ YEARS.

YOU BUY TODAY YOU LOSE. OH IT BUT IT WILL COME BACK IN PRICE. YES IT MAY....BUT MAYBE IT WON'T THIS TIME AROUND!
BUT HOW WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE UNDERWATER SAY 50% FOR A CONDO...OH ARE CONDOS GOING TO BET OBLITERATED.....MAYBE 10-15 YEARS TO BREAKEVEN....ARE HARD LESSON TO LEARN.

BLEED'EM DRY

Bob

8/17/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Zowie! Yes.

8/17/2006 08:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I dont think most people
realize how fast the nose dive
in prices are.

However, the impression i get
is , most people think everything
is fine.

am i wrong, my neighbor has
a house for sale, no drop
in price, its been on for 4 months.

8/17/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

from BusinessWeek:

"Milken Institute data shows that the states with the largest losses of residents are also those with the highest home prices. The five states with the largest out-migration were California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. I was surprised to see cities such as Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Boston actually losing hundreds of thousands of residents to other states."

we are headed for third world status in this area unless housing tanks hard

8/17/2006 08:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I do not think we have even begun to see the start of unethical realtors. Once there yearly salary drops by 40%, they will try every trick in the book to move properties. The worse is yet to come."

Not so..really.
Actually, unfortunately mostly for them, this is not true. Although bonuses go up and down enough for these guys, the impact that takes place in long housing booms is an increase in the QUANTITY of realitors and agents... not all individual salaries as much as one might think. The only real winners are the agencies and top P&L managers, the rest are doing OK...but not getting rich at all. A downturn simply means less large payouts to top management... and only but the strongest individual agents lose their jobs. (book:freakonomics... a must read). The ones who WILL and ARE losing the big bonuses (and also likely their occupation) are on the morgage side.

CURIOUS

8/17/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Powerhouse district in JC was stripped of it's historic designation yesterday.

Powerhouse 'historic' no more

The Jersey City council yesterday officially stripped the historic designation from the Powerhouse Arts District and removed it from the oversight of the city's Historic Preservation Commission.

The changes were included in the amendments to the Powerhouse Arts District Redevelopment plan approved yesterday by the City Council. The amendments passed by a 7-2 vote, with Councilman Steve Fulop and Councilwoman Viola Richardson opposing the changes.

The changes are a result of the controversial 111 First St. settlement, which allowed New Gold Equities to bypass the district's historic protections and build high-rise residential buildings.

8/17/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there data anywhere about the number of houses in NNJ on the MLS in earlier years, like pre-2000? Just want to see how inventories fared pre-bubble.

NAR claims that we are seeing a return to normal market conditions and I'm just wondering what they consider a "normal" level of inventory, and if it's backed up by the data or only their spin on things.

8/17/2006 09:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are the RE companies listed on any stock exchange? Century21, ReMax etc.
The P/L should show us how they are doing.

8/17/2006 09:15:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Is there data anywhere about the number of houses in NNJ on the MLS in earlier years, like pre-2000?

The NJMLS does not shows historical "Actives" prior to 1/2004.

The www.NJAR.com info only goes back to 2001 and doesn't have "Active" listing inventory information.

8/17/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Realogy (H) owns Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and Sothebys International. Recently spun off from Cendant. Realogy filed a 10Q recently:

REALOGY CORP 10-Q

I believe ReMax is private, as is Weichert.

grim

8/17/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

grim,

the same thing happened in New Brunswick NJ at the hiram market district. 18th and 19thy century structures were purposely vandalized and then it was taken off of the Federal & State registry. I believe it was the first time suchh a thing happened. But this is New Jersey so I am not surprized by JC having the same thing happen.

8/17/2006 09:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Are the RE companies listed on any stock exchange?


Just look at the charts of the H-Builders. Looks like some of the dot com charts. Wall Street started to sell these in 8/2005. The general public is usually a year behind Wall Street. Gee, it's 8/2006. I guess the general public is getting it now.

In a previous thread, someone brought up Ken Heebner (spelling??). His mutual funds have been the most successful real estate funds on the street. He is one the most respected money managers on the street. He started to sell the H-Builders last year.He thinks we have a 50% move to the downside. Now, all you bulls, do you listen to the NAR/your realtor or someone like him????

BC Bob

8/17/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the pain the housing stocks have
had are nothing to what is going
to continue.

wait till they start telling
the real truth. Like the write
down on land values, these stocks
will dip below book.

look out below

still great shorts.

or get the ETF

8/17/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

RE: JC "arts district"

If these are the buildings I suspect, they are today abandoned shells with bricks and other large chunks of structure actually falling from the facade.

There's nothing to preserve, as they have deteriorated past the point of no return about 30 years ago.

The town could use the tax revenue from new buildings, and there will be a few less abandoned eyesores to plague the skyline.

8/17/2006 09:40:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Forgot one, Realogy owns ERA as well.

grim

8/17/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So if there's no inventory data pre-2004, is there anyplace to see the number of "solds" each year for earlier years, preferably before 2000 or 2001?

8/17/2006 09:47:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I thought they owned burgdorf as well. As for century 21 I believe it is a franchise operation.

8/17/2006 09:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon
8/17/2006 10:39:33 AM

I am with you 100%, any dead cat bounce, give it to them!!!!!!!!!

BC Bob

8/17/2006 09:51:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Burgdorff is an ERA franchise.

8/17/2006 09:54:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

So if there's no inventory data pre-2004, is there anyplace to see the number of "solds" each year for earlier years, preferably before 2000 or 2001?

Here's information I have for the month of July for Bergen County ONLY. This info is for Single Family Homes only, not Condo/Co-Ops.

This is as far back as I can go for this information. I let everyone make their own assessment.

The columns are as follows
Year Avg$ Med$ Sold UnderContract

1996 $289,816 $231,000 721 616
1997 $290,365 $230,000 821 648
1998 $315,057 $249,000 861 673
1999 $356,619 $279,100 854 611
2000 $365,792 $286,000 740 609
2001 $430,339 $333,000 812 636
2002 $469,927 $369,000 800 638
2003 $529,185 $420,000 845 871
2004 $694,661 $510,000 945 689
2005 $660,848 $520,000 779 666
2006 $677,783 $525,000 665 550

8/17/2006 09:56:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I am not an accountant but did I read the realogy 10-Q correctly? assets are equal to liabilities? and at the end of the document, a problem with liquidity?

8/17/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Rich,

Surprising, lowest contracts and sales in 10 years.

grim

8/17/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Grim
So if Realogy has filed for 10Q does it mean all the folks working for say Coldwell, Century and ERA are in danger of loosing their years worth of hard earned money :-)

8/17/2006 10:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lose what? because cd trades
publicly, now know as Realogy.

One may not have nothing to do
with the stock price.

good companies many times have
terrible trading stocks.

If your interested in real estate
and do not understand the markets
trade the ETF's.

Much safer.

8/17/2006 10:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WSJ interview with Ken Heebner on 7/05/06
WSJ: How is the housing market?

Mr. Heebner: A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50% from their peaks.


Today on Bloomberg,

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Kenneth Heebner, the best-performing money manager among his peers in the past three years, said the world's growing need for crude oil led him to put more than half of his CGM Focus Fund into energy stocks.

``In the 40 years that I have been investing, I have not seen demand this strong,'' Heebner, 65, said in an interview at his office in Boston.

This is from the best known real estate (mutual funds) investor on the street.

BC Bob

8/17/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14378338/from/RS.1/

http://tinyurl.com/pm8eu

"America's most expensive 2006 rentals

Average vacancy rates will decline, rents likely to go up, Realtors predict"


Pat

8/17/2006 10:57:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Realtors predict"


That's all I needed to know about that article. :-)

8/17/2006 11:02:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

ooof!!! [to use a batman reference]

3-Month 5.09
2-Year 4.88
10-Year 4.85

8/17/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Metroplexual said...
I am not an accountant but did I read the realogy 10-Q correctly? assets are equal to liabilities? and at the end of the document, a problem with liquidity?
8/17/2006 11:01:38 AM

Do you want me to review this? It will take some time.

8/17/2006 11:05:00 AM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Rich,

Surprising, lowest contracts and sales in 10 years.

grim


2006 is not over in simple math it could end up at 997 there is a whole quarter missing from the figures.

KL

8/17/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm.. A bank rep from corporate called me yesterday to tell me about a new 9 month CD offer I might be interested in.

What's with pushing the 9-month?

Pat

8/17/2006 11:08:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

KL,

I think the numbers that Rich posted are sales/contracts for the month of July only, not annual.

We're sufficiently deep into the month of August to assume there will be no more sales added into those figures.

I don't have the GSMLS July numbers handy, but I do have June.

June - Bergen SFH

2002 - 188
2003 - 199
2004 - 225
2005 - 234
2006 - 210

jb

8/17/2006 11:16:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

kapow!!! [to use a batman reference]

CF,

Not necessary, from reading other parts of the document I get the feeling they cut the RE part of the business because the could smell the blood in the water and want to protect the part of the business that will be profitable in the years to come.

8/17/2006 11:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As long as we're quoting Ken Heebner, here's a bit more of what he had to say:

WSJ:Given the big size of some of the markets that you see as inflated, won't the regional 'pops' reverberate throughout the economy?


Mr. Heebner: The pops will reduce the growth rate of the economy, but they won't precipitate a downturn. The economy only turns down when the Federal Reserve takes aggressive action to cause a downturn. I think the current pattern of higher interest rates reflects a decision to normalize rates after taking them to abnormally low levels to stave off potential deflation. When the extent of the housing slowdown becomes apparent, I think the Fed will pause, rather than take rates to a level that threatens an economic downturn. The only real threat to the economy is an overly aggressive Fed, and not a downturn in the housing market, which won't by itself push the economy down. In fact, it provides an insurance policy against the Fed becoming overly aggressive.

Doesn't sound quite as bad as some folks here make it out to be in terms of the overall economy being affected by a decline in the bubble markets.

8/17/2006 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

vronk!!! [to use a batman reference]

CF,

http://www.batmania.com.ar/paginas/serie_onomatopeyas.htm

Isn't the internet amazing!

Btw, the language below is what made me ask the question about how healthy the company is. It looks like it is a sinking ship.





"As part of the separation from Cendant, we have incurred substantial debt with external lenders, which subjects us to various restrictions and decrease our profitability.

In connection with the separation, on July 27, 2006 we incurred approximately $2,225 million of debt, through a $600 million term loan facility, a $1,050 million revolving credit facility of which we borrowed $300 million, and a $1,325 million interim loan facility, all of the proceeds have been transferred to Cendant to be used solely by Cendant to repay its debt. In addition, the Separation and Distribution Agreement provides for an adjustment in the amount of indebtedness we will incur in connection with our separation in the event that the sum of the borrowings transferred by us, Wyndham Worldwide and Travelport to Cendant, together with the cash at Cendant then available to be utilized to repay its corporate debt, is less than or more than the amount necessary to enable Cendant to make the Separation Payments."

8/17/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

rymingrealtor said

"2006 is not over in simple math it could end up at 997 there is a whole quarter missing from the figures."

In simple logic 2006 is finished!!!
What is important here is the change in trend. Once ballistic markets turn, they go a lot further for a lot longer that we can imagine.

Only by the calendar, 2006 may not be finished. However, this industry just finished its peak season, a disaster beyond belief!!!! Results are in, 2006 finished!!!!

BC Bob

8/17/2006 11:28:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

CF,

I'd actually like to get your take on their current position. If you've got some free time, of course.

jb

8/17/2006 11:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For CF and Metro:

http://www.batmania.com.ar/paginas/serie_onomatopeyas.htm

-Jamey

8/17/2006 12:12:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

KL,

As Grim pointed out, those figures are for July only (which I choose randomly) and doubt any agents have July sales that they haven't posted yet. And IF they haven’t, I’m sure it wouldn’t affect the number of sales by more than a few.
I’m confident that the number of “Under Contract” for July is up to date as well.


Rich

Oh yea, BLAM!

8/17/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
CF,
I'd actually like to get your take on their current position. If you've got some free time, of course.
jb
8/17/2006 12:43:42 PM

From the guy that owns the firm, he would say "time for free". :-p

Yes - but I don't want to set a precedent. I'll try after the market closes.

8/17/2006 12:27:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

This is now the third listing for this house, each with a new MLS#, and a new price:

MLS 2310260
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1066418949


From memory (don't have the MLS #s right now, but will later), the three listings were priced as follows:


#1: $1,100,000

#2: $950,000

#3: $924,000


Actual days on market for all these listings combined is over 200.

All three listings were Weichert.

Such deception is all part of the realtor "code of ethics."

8/17/2006 01:00:00 PM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

CF,Rich,Grim

Sorry, Didnt realize they were from july only. Thought they were low for the year, but I was reading all the figures as yearly...

KL

8/17/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Realtor Code of Ethics." Heh, that makes as much sense as "George Bush's reading list."

8/17/2006 01:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm boycotting this blog again if any of you are responsible for that Chase mortgage ad on cnn.com.

Who did it?

Pat

8/17/2006 01:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about Georges last read. "How to avoid Veitnam Service by joining a reserve unit, but rush into a war by sending the next generation of reserves in force 35 years later"

8/17/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Or how about Kerry's reading list:

"How to Label US Soldiers 'War Criminals' While Providing Aid & Comfort to Our Enemies."

Or:

"George Bush Had Better Grades Than Kerry in College."

Or:

"How to Play Lurch in French."


Partisan stuff is fun, right? How abut we leave this board to discussing real estate?

8/17/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

when I checked last the word was left by Grim to post anything on your mind today, not just RE.
Never claimed to be a big Kerry supporter, but I do find it very ironic that most of us that did go to that war are the ones that wanted to think twice before making misinformed decision again.
We're there now and have to commit completely or have even bigger problems. I've felt that last time and feel the same this time.
Bush should have listened to Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf and got better intelligence before committing all these young lives.

8/17/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

How about posting political opinions at Grim's Forum Site and leaving this one for Housing related topics.

8/17/2006 02:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can we plaese stop talking about Bush, Kerry, Powell, etc.....

Let's keep it simple;

1)Capital preservation
2)Reduce Debt
3)Downsizing
4)Savings
5)Cash is the new king.

BC Bob

8/17/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Bush should have listened to Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf and got better intelligence before committing all these young lives."


Bush listened to Kerry and others:

http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html


"Can we plaese stop talking about Bush, Kerry, Powell, etc."

I agree. I have not once initiated partisan politics here, but the anti-Bush hysterics and lies people throw around make me gag.

8/17/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

"A little knowledge is a dangerous thing" phrase is what describes US foreign policy. And don't complain when BRIC and Japan mop up US debt over the next 15-20 years. Unfortunately, the US is pimping itself to fund its $2 billion a day coke (deficit) trip, and there will be nasty consequences.

Just my .02 cent opinion (which might be worth 0.002 the way the US$ is going).

Cash is king for now...the question is which currency do you want to hold?!

8/17/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Pat said...

Okay, Okay..just one more GW thing:

http://tinyurl.com/q2rgs

{KAPOW}

8/17/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cash is king for now...the question is which currency do you want to hold?!

I agree with the debt problem and who is holding our purse strings.

How about short the US dollar and long dollar denominated commodities.

BC Bob

8/17/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Guess reading this crap is all you really want to see.
I'm done, but Bush & company seem to have many of you buffaloed and you really only want to hear from those who agree with your theories, RE Bubble or otherwise.

8/17/2006 02:59:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Interesting:
From Grim's Home Prices DO Fall

In a Cooling Housing Market, Real Estate Auctions Are Hot
December 3, 1989
"AUCTIONING off property, a sales method common in foreclosures, is being used more and more to market houses and condominiums in Connecticut as the demand for real estate continues to slacken."

ANd today at Ben's Housing Bubble Blog

Everyone's Offering Something
August 17, 2006
"The Wall Street Journal reports on a way to get home sales moving. “As a glutted real-estate market makes homes harder to sell, some sellers are trying a different approach: putting their house or condo on the auction block. In some areas along the East and West coasts and in Florida, the number of homes listed for sale has more than doubled from a year ago and prices are eroding. The market has chilled so fast that sellers have little idea how much their homes are now valued at or how to attract buyers. That creates a perfect opening for auctioneers."

Kapapk!!

8/17/2006 03:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The sale prices, for the most part are consistent with those in recent years when the market was red hot...it's the asking prices that are the problem. Many buyer's will be hesitant to make an offer when a price is so high, when in fact seller's today are going to be more than willing to entertain such things. "
http://tinyurl.com/lcc5h


Ok, what's this guy trying to say? It's like a Bush-ism. The more I think about it the more I'm beduffled.

Pat

8/17/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Pat,

Great picture.

{thwack}

8/17/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The forum is a great place for off-topic discussions.

grim

8/17/2006 03:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Okay, one last thing, Unreality-or:

http://hammeroftruth.com/images/articles/461-mission_accomplished.jpg

The Dems made him do it! No, wait, it was the sailors' fault.

8/17/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

metro/grim:

you know my standard caveats

apologies

this is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities

you cannot rely on this information to make an investment decision

you must perform your own research and further should retain the advice of a professional advisor

realogy [ticker: H]

first pass - nothing out of the ordinary - STILL Reviewing

appreciate that there is a tremendous amount of potential risk in transferring liabilities and assets to another entity through the process referred to as novation, or else brand new contracts

debt holders will receive compensation in some form to allow such a transfer

Cendant could still be on the hook if Realogy tanks [you cannot rely on this opinion, as there is no formal due diligence in place to support this conclusion]

i was involved at AT&T subsequent to the Lucent-spin, so I have a lot of background here

the most recent example that you could easily research would be GM & Delphi automotive - look how GM is stepping in to fill the void on the Delphi pension liability

comment on page 5
unaudited Proforma Balance sheet at 6/30/06

assets = liab + oe = completely normal

prior to the IPO, Cendant created a shell and spun the net assets [including goodwill] into Realogy

the net assets = assets – liabilities = oe

risk assessment related to liquidity as noted by someone else is standard for a company in their statement describing financial condition

note: Moody's and S&P rated these guys at the lower end of the Investment Grade range as a credit, which is appropriate for a firm with this business

the rating agencies will take into account not only the capital structure of the firm, but also the forward looking forecast of the business, and its position in the industry and the overall economy


as far the strategy behind the spin - checking on Cendant commentary from 2005 - ultimately, the Street was looking at the combined Cendant as a morass, and the businesses were being punished in valuation, but let me get a real and well researched opinion on this topic


The value of this opinion is equal to the amount you paid for it.

chicago

8/17/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

From Lehman in January 2006

I won't post any more, because it would come across as a tout of the stock......

Cendant announced during its 3Q05 conference call its plan to split its conglomerate structure into four different companies: 1) Real Estate Services, 2) Travel Network, 3) Hospitality, and 4) Vehicle Rental Services (see Figure 1 for the breakup details and our sum-of-the-parts, or SOTP, valuation). This move came after management and investors questioned the conglomerate structure and its perceived negative impact on the stock’s
valuation, despite Cendant’s industry-leading status in its primary segments (in addition to its strong free cash flow generation).

8/17/2006 04:19:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

At the point CD announced the spin, the division that would become Realogy was likely one of the most profitable in the company. Spinning off a company takes the better part of a year, and they were probably looking at it for at least a year prior, so the genesis of the decision could have been as early as mid-2004.

No matter, the bankers made their money. ugh

8/17/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Why don't private insurance companies offer flood insurance to coastal communities? Insurance is a profitable business so I don't understand why selling this type of insurance wouldn't also be profitable?

8/17/2006 08:31:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Anon 3:59,

If you would spend a little more time here, you'd see that this group appreciates discussion of the issues surrounding the real estate market, even dissenting opinions.

Many of us try to avoid posting (and responding) to the political posts since we've had a few "firestorms" develop in the past and this completely derails the thread.

There are both dems and reps on this blog and if you want to talk more politics, you should check out Grim's new forums where you can discuss these topics and many others freely.

8/17/2006 09:08:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

oh yeah,

booyaaa and Kerplop!

8/17/2006 09:09:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

One more thing anon, this group appreciates data/references to back up your assertions. Don't be surprised if you're asked for this.

8/17/2006 09:11:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"The Dems made him do it! No, wait, it was the sailors' fault."


This is what I mean, the derangement runs so deep, the facts so unimportant, all that can be brought forward is nonsensical media/DNC "scandals." What's next a link to the non-existent "plastic turkey" from the Baghdad Thanksgiving visit?

I can talk about this stuff all day, and have read every source document out there (and would suggest all Bush-haters start with UNSC 1441 and the decades-long history of WMD in Iraq), but this is a Real Estate forum.

Not everyone in the world is fixated on boogeyman Bush.

8/17/2006 09:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor,
You sure seem to be as you would drop this.
Everone else seems to have done so. Please do the same,or must you always get the last word in.

8/18/2006 03:48:00 AM  

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