Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Post-9/11 Economic Recovery

From the Record:

N.J.'s post-9/11 boom has abated

Five years ago, after the Twin Towers fell, New Jersey seemed the logical landing place for many of the displaced companies.

It happened -- for a short while.

American Express, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Bros. all shifted employees to New Jersey in the scramble for office space after 9/11.

But the flow soon fizzled, and some companies moved back to New York.

State Labor Department statistics show that while the number of New Jersey-based financial services jobs jumped by 15,000 immediately after the attacks, 5,000 of them were gone a year later.

Some companies stayed, among them Garban Intercapital, an electronic stock brokerage now based in Jersey City, and Marsh & McLennan, which moved 1,100 employees to Hoboken.

New Jersey is now seeing a second surge, largely into Jersey City, fueled by New York's economic good times, which have pushed up the cost of office space in the midtown and downtown markets.


N.Y.C. proves pessimists wrong, remains heart of financial world

At the time, observers said the attacks would accelerate the economic downturn already under way and trigger mass layoffs and widespread business closures. They wondered if residents and companies alike would flee New York for the suburbs. They suggested that downtown Manhattan might lose its position as the center of world capitalism.

Though some of those things happened, the worst-case scenarios didn't. To the contrary, the metropolitan region – especially New York -- has returned to health, and remains a global finance center, though lower Manhattan still has a ways to go toward full recovery.

An analysis by The Record shows that 18 of the 32 larger tenants at the World Trade Center based on office space moved to midtown Manhattan.

Another 12 stayed downtown, while other prominent companies that were not tenants in the Twin Towers, such as Goldman Sachs and American Express, also stayed.

More important for New York, only a few WTC tenants fled permanently for the suburbs.
...
Yet employment figures in both New York and New Jersey are now close to the pre-attack levels.

New York City's workforce, at 3.66 million, is about 32,000 lower -- less than 1 percent -- than on 9/11, and New Jersey has 91,000 more jobs than five years ago.

"I think it proves how resilient the economy is," said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. "You put New York and New Jersey together; you have got close to 8 million jobs. That's a huge, huge enterprise. So it takes a lot to derail it."

14 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

From Financial Times:

IMF warns of ‘severe global slowdown’

The world is set to enjoy a fifth record year of high growth next year, says the International Monetary Fund, but it warns that the risks of a sharp slowdown have significantly increased.

The IMF will say next week that the world economy is on track to grow at 5.1 per cent this year but the risk of a severe global slowdown in 2007 is stronger than at any time since the 2001 terror attacks on the US.

“Risk to the global outlook is clearly tilted to the downside,” the IMF said, adding, “there is a one-in-six chance of growth falling below 3.25 per cent in 2007.”

The warning comes in a report to finance ministers at next week’s meeting of the G7 in Singapore.

The report, seen by Expansión, the Financial Times’ Spanish partner paper, is based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, due for publication next week.

The IMF warns slower growth could be triggered by a sharp US housing market slowdown or by surging inflationary expectations that forced central banks to raise interest rates.

9/06/2006 10:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

PRWEB) September 6, 2006 -- The question regarding a national real estate bubble, and or a hard or soft landing according to the President of The National Mortgage Complaint Center/Homeowners Consumer Center "is about to get answered." Mr. Thomas Martin the President of this group has indicated that the "bubble is going to be more like a nuclear detonation with consequences getting progressively worse, with no quick fix." He calls it "the Hurricane Katrina of real estate, because everyone knew it was coming and no one prepared for what it would, or could do."

Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but one indicator, ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality is that with real estate valuations coming back to earth many homeowners have no equity left in their homes or actually owe more than their home is worth.
"Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but one indicator, ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality is that with real estate valuations coming back to earth many homeowners have no equity left in their homes or actually owe more than their home is worth." So how did this happen? Martin says the answer can be summed up in one word, "Greed."

For over two years the National Mortgage Complaint Center has been expressing concern/panic over regional or national homebuilders forcing local real estate appraisers to come up with inflated or over-valued real estate valuations. The net result is, as builders inflated the price of their new homes, existing homeowners inflated theirs. This practice goes back to about 1998. It was a game of musical chairs. According to Martin,"at some point the music would stop and someone would get left without a chair. In this instance it will be the homeowners who recently purchased a home and or the pension funds who thought they were buying a real estate portfolio worth 100%. In reality new mortgage backed securities might only be worth 90% or 85%. Ultimately it will be the taxpayer; as this real estate bubble burst will call for another massive federal bail-out just like the Savings & Loan Bail Out of the late 1980s & early 1990s."

The other culprit according to Martin is a "greedy mortgage industry combined with a Fannie Mae, Senate & House Banking Committee all asleep at the switch with respect to ridiculous mortgage products such as adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) with start rates as low as 1%. The problem is, the borrower did not understand that the rates would increase, or these mortgage products allowed borrowers to qualify for a mortgage they could never other wise afford. At some point the borrower realizes they cannot make the payments or they owe more on the home than it is actually worth, and they walk away from the house or they face foreclosure." According to Martin, "the combination of blackmailing real estate appraisers into inflated valuations combined with insane mortgage products creates the perfect storm for a real estate disaster that could be our nations most costly real estate melt down in history."

The National Mortgage Complaint Center & its partner The Homeowners Consumer Center suggest homeowners do the following to weather the 2006 real estate bubble burst.

1. Don't sell right now if you don't have to. If you do have to sell, do it now, even if you have to reduce your price. The national or some regional markets may ultimately correct to 10%-20% less than current market valuations, especially in formerly hot markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington DC Metro, New York, Florida and the Carolina's. It may take 5 to 7 years for these markets to recover to 2005 price levels.

2. If you are in a mortgage that has features that call for payment increases or adjustments within the next two years, see if your current lender will allow you to convert to a fixed rate product. If not call the National Mortgage Complaint Center Http://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com to see what your options might be. The Complaint Centers toll free number is 866-714-6466.

3. Consumers should not fall for some advertising gimmick from a mortgage firm/bank or homebuilder offering a 1% start rate on a mortgage or 100% financing. Why would anyone want 100% financing in a nationwide real estate market that could see values decline 10% to 15%+ in the next two years? Put another way "why purchase something that at least in the short run may not retain its value"?

4. If you are a potential real estate buyer the Homeowners Consumer Center ( Http://HomeownersConsumerCenter.Com ) & the National Mortgage Complaint Center strongly suggest you wait to see how far real estate values go down in your area before you purchase a home or investment property.

5. While real estate market prices may decline, the rental market should stay intact. Homeowners unable to sell their existing property should consider renting their property until the real estate market begins to recover. This may be the best option for many homeowners to actually hold onto their property.

For Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Bankers & Homebuilders the National Mortgage Complaint Center Suggests; Clean Up Your Act.

The mortgage process should be simple and transparent with consumer friendly approaches to fees; par interest rates, yield spreads and pre-payment penalties, etc. Martin envisions a future, with flat fee- A-type mortgages, and flat fee title insurance. In other words the same thing that happened to the stock market with respect to flat fee stock trades is about to happen to the mortgage and title industry. "Its no longer a question of if, at this point, it's just a question of who figures it out first and takes over the mortgage/title industries".

The echo generation is now in high school or college (the largest generation of possible homeowners in our nations history). Within four to six years they will become potential home buyers or renters. By this time, we believe the market will have corrected and appreciation will begin again. By then it is the hope of the Homeowners Consumer Center that there will be much more conservative approaches to real estate valuations and deceptive mortgage products/fees will have been outlawed.

9/06/2006 10:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Things are booming. You see it when looking at rents & retail sales.

Both are robust & booming higher.

Consumer spending is running at the fastest rate since 1999 & may exceed 1999 to grow at the fastest rate since 1983 when the economy was recovering from the deep 1981-1982 recession.

Rents are rising quickly as well. Many people I know are getting rent increases running 10% -30% in the NYC area or NJ.

They are happily paying the increase because they are making in the six figures and know that
the job market is booming.

This generation of 20 & 30 somethings have just seen great economic times in NYC. There has not been a significant economic slowdown since 1990-1992.

9/06/2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't forget about the suburbs of NYC especially Long Island and most of NJ.

Rents are still quickly rising as a spillover from manhattan.

You cannot find a one bedroom for less than $2,000 a month within a 2 hour commute each way from Midtown Manhattan. Plus realtor fees have increased to 15% of annual rent in most areas as well.

9/06/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{{{New York City's workforce, at 3.66 million, is about 32,000 lower -- less than 1 percent -- than on 9/11, and New Jersey has 91,000 more jobs than five years ago.

"I think it proves how resilient the economy is," said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. "You put New York and New Jersey together; you have got close to 8 million jobs. That's a huge, huge enterprise. So it takes a lot to derail it."}}}}

And most of these jobs pay in the six figures. Strong job growth was the primary driver in housing prices.

Most people still put down 20% when buying a home and banks require higher credit scores of at least 700 plus much more extensive documentation when applying for a mortgage than in the rest of the country.

9/06/2006 12:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You cannot find a one bedroom for less than $2,000 a month within a 2 hour commute each way from Midtown Manhattan."


Is this the same person posting this nonsense over and over every few days? (The $300 jeans person?)


Summit 3BR $1,750
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/198271232.html

Summit 2BR @ $1,450
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/195451024.html

Summit 1BR $1,100
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/196495546.html


All with a 40-minute single train ride to Penn Station.

My rent has increased only about $15 a month for many years. Rents are not that big a deal, it's housing prices that are the issue. If rents are too high, move.

9/06/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The impossibility of market timing is a concept that is inextricably linked to the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

From Wikipedia:

efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g. stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects.

The efficient market hypothesis implies that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market — appropriately adjusted for risk — by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck or obtaining and trading on inside information. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect stock prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future. This random information will be the cause of future stock price changes.


We first need to realize that market timing is possible when the market is imperfect. Insider trading, while not legal, is a perfect example of market timing that works. It works because an individual is exploiting an information asymmetry with the rest of the market. This single individual has information that will impact the valuation of an asset and acts on it before the rest of the market does.

I'm not trying to say it's possible to time the real estate market, but I am saying that this seems to be a gross misapplication of the concept.

However, the real estate market is hardly efficient and hardly a perfect market. Aside from that, psychology plays an incredible role in the valuation, again, not a factor of an efficient market.

Can you time the real estate market? Probably not. However can you determine whether or not it is over or undervalued? Sure.

Remember, if the real estate market was efficient, there would be no need for appraisers or valuation experts. Why? Because the market price would always be correct.

grim

9/06/2006 12:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go to Suffern, NY - one hour door to door to Penn Station (via Secaucus Junction) - plenty of one bedrooms for $1100 and 2 bedrooms for $1500 to $1700 - within a 2 minute walk to the train station. Great restaurants - it's definitely an up and coming town. The NY Post wrote an article about Suffern in its real estate section 4 months ago.

9/06/2006 12:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The mascot of Suffern High School is the "Succotash."

True Story**.

Also: Sorry, Anon. 1:49, but most of the eight million jobs in the NY/NJ area do NOT pay six figures. To claim otherwise would be ludicrous.

-Jamey

**No, not true.

9/06/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

im going to ditech.

61/8 no points.

oh boy, let me refi.

im going to scoop up
one of these grubbers on
the cheap.

9/06/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

RichInNorthNJ:
re Market Timing in RE

the grim-olator nailed it

ranks up there with some of his best original analysis

he even had Miller genuflecting

9/06/2006 03:21:00 PM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

NJgal -
Don't forget, HE pays $1000 a month but that is only because it is rent controlled.

9/06/2006 08:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yee Grim,

That was a classic post. One of the best.

SAS

9/06/2006 10:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One other note Grim...

True, you can't time the markets with perfection.

BUT, you can cheat the hell out of the tax man. Makes up for not being able to master timing of markets.

he he.....yes...

;)
SAS

9/06/2006 10:41:00 PM  

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