A Tooth-Rattling Plunge?

From the IHT/NY Times:

America's housing slump

With economic signals flashing that America's housing boom is over, speculation has now turned to how deep the slump will be and how long it will last, with predictions ranging from a smooth descent to a tooth-rattling plunge. Come what may, conventional wisdom holds that as long as you don't plan to sell your house any time soon, you'll be all right. The downturn is unlikely to wipe out all of your accumulated gains - the thinking goes - so you can cash in later.

Or can you?

The downturn in housing is overlapping with the retirement of the baby-boom generation, which starts officially in 2008, when the first of 77 million boomers become eligible for Social Security. Most of them are homeowners, and many of them will presumably want to sell their homes, extracting some cash for retirement in the process. Theoretically, that implies a glut of houses for sale, which would surely mitigate an upturn in prices, and could drive them ever lower. The result would be less housing wealth for everyone and less to live on for those who had planned to retire on the house.

Still, no one can be sure what will happen. Economists agree that the retirement of the baby-boom generation will influence housing prices, but differ over how powerful the effect will be. But one thing is reasonably certain. The question would not be such a burning one if Americans, especially those near retirement, had adequate savings to see them through. Even before the personal savings rate went negative last year, Americans were meager savers.

The housing bust may be what it takes to reverse that. Even a shift from profligacy to thrift would not be entirely good news, however. For an economy based on consumption, the change to less free-spending ways could be excruciating.

The house party is over, but Americans don't yet know how bad the hangover is going to be.