Friday, August 18, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

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43 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes -- first post
--BM

8/18/2006 12:52:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Interesting piece from the Australian..

It may just be the recession the world has to have

AS ELUSIVE objectives go, the economic soft landing used to be up there with the lasting peace in the Middle East, the end to poverty in Africa and the cure for cancer.

It featured prominently in the rhetorical promises of policymakers but rarely in the harsh reality of a world that refused to conform to wishful thinking.

The idea that economies that flew too high, too fast could be brought down to earth with minimal discomfort was an attractive one.

In the real world, they were more likely to execute the kind of landing apt to bring a warm glow of satisfaction to the heart of your average jihadi.

But in recent years soft landings have become the norm rather than the exception.

Britain has engineered a couple in the past decade when over-inflated house prices threatened to get out of control. Australia has done the same.

The US authorities, most impressively, brought the surging and bubble-propelled economy down to earth with only a very small recessionary bump in 2001.

Now we are about to discover, with great consequence for the world, whether this run of successful soft landings can continue, or whether the US, the screaming engine of global growth for the past five years, is heading for a crash.

8/18/2006 01:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i was talking to a bagholder
in a very upscale BC town.

He thinks the joint is still
worth 900k with the 14k taxes, which
are increasing .

I would say the place is worth
700k, needs new kitchen, baths,
landscaping needs upgrading.

Pool, needs acid wash, plus
work around it, tiles etc.

lovely setting , my take
is he's in for a surprise, when
the realtor from one of the
local office shows up.

They may bs each other, but
he's in for a haircut, unless
he finds an unsuspecting fool

8/18/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anybody passed the
4 homes for sale on Valley Rd.
in Clifton?

They seem to be sitting along
time. Nothing has sold, I also
notice the second bank is in the
deal.

679k to live on Valley Rd.?

Seems out of touch to me.

8/18/2006 01:18:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Great article Grim, and coming from outside the US, nicely presents all positions without all the partisan, self-interested hoo ha.

8/18/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Same thought exactly NJGal.

8/18/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

You anonymous posters better watch what you say, you might just see it in print one day..

8/18/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From Exit Weekly:

Towns may rob Peter to pay property

New Jersey now has the fourth highest state sales tax in the United States, said Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. Though food and clothing remain exempt from the increase, any other luxury items were bumped up in price. For instance, a pack of cigarettes costs an additional 17.5 cents.

Business proprietors and shoppers expressed their displeasure with the increase, which is intended to provide property tax relief and alleviate the $4.5 billion state budget deficit.
...
"Get the tube of KY and bend over - here it comes!" said an anonymous poster on the blog Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble, expressing how he feels the state government is gouging - or rather, anally raping - its taxpayers.

8/18/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, but who's the James Bender guy?

Pat

8/18/2006 01:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And why is he taking credit for all of Grim's work????

Pat

8/18/2006 01:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dont know if anyone has any info for secaucus. houses here seem to go off the market really fast. in fact, 2 RE agents sent me flyers and asked if i'm selling.

i doubt secaucus is immuned to RE bubble, but what gives. anyone?

8/18/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I know who James Bender is he is the robot from Futurama.

8/18/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anybody passed the
4 homes for sale on Valley Rd.
in Clifton?

They seem to be sitting along
time. Nothing has sold, I also
notice the second bank is in the
deal.

679k to live on Valley Rd.?

Seems out of touch to me.


I heard through the grapevine that the buildings don't comply with city code, and the builder was told to lower the rooflines.

I think they all started out over $800K asking.

The same builder has 2 preconstruction properties on Stuyvesant Court, which is a side street in the same area, for $649K (down from $679K) with no bites since February.

Getting mighty interesting over in Acquakononk!

jw

8/18/2006 02:12:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

congrats on another article referencing the blog. I just wish it were "ready for prime time" instead of so graphic. While I come here to be informed and chip in my 2 cents every so often the comment is kind of funny and that is part of the reason I come here as well.

8/18/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe this isn't NJ, but Hudson county & Bergen county must be affected by this since North Central Jersey is part of the NYC metro area (with attitudes no different than Queens or Long Island).
Anyway, rents in Manhattan are now averaging $3,000 a month and up for a one bedroom.

Closer to $4,000 a month on the east side and in those 'hot' trendy B&T areas like Soho, Tribeca & Chelsea.

In Jersey City a condo 5th floor walkup -- 700 square feet starts at around $350,000 plus HOA & RE Taxes. Such a 'deal' right. Everyone walking around the downtown JC area looks like some wannabe poser or yuppie scared of their own shadow.

8/18/2006 02:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This may not belong here but has anybody been following the Mass. RE market??? A friend of mine told me that condos that sold on the Boston Harbor in 2005 in the low 900's, recently sold for the high 500's!!

Cape Cod presently has the highest # of foreclosures in its history.

The following from the Globe;

The Boston Globe. “Brockton-area banks are banding together to slow a rapid increase in foreclosure filings in their community. The initiative is a reaction to soaring foreclosure rates in Brockton and across Massachusetts in the wake of a housing boom during which many homeowners took out loans with low introductory payments to buy houses they could not, in the long run, afford.”

“Brockton homeowners received 298 foreclosure notices from mortgage lenders between January and June 30, a 148 percent increase in two years. That exceeds the 88 percent statewide increase over the two-year period. ‘We’re headed toward crisis,’ which could hit ‘in the next six months to a year,’ said Carol DeLorey, who heads an affordable home project.”

“A variety of mortgages are causing the financial difficulties, including adjustable rate, interest only, and no-down-payment loans; but all had something in common: easy financing with low initial payments that made it possible to buy a house as prices were climbing. Now that interest rates are going up, monthly payments are increasing, causing some homeowners to fall behind.”

An editorial at the Republican. “Remember the housing boom? It won’t be all that long before someone asks that question, without the slightest trace of irony in his voice. The housing boom is over. It’s over in Massachusetts and it’s over across much of the nation.”

All have a great weekend,

BC Bob

8/18/2006 03:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/oe9qa

CNN/Money article

Mortgage broker sold his home and now is renting even with a family.

ENUF SAID! Have a good weekend.

8/18/2006 03:10:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Not many open houses coming up this weekend, things look grim for "greedy grubbing" sellers.

School registration coming to an end for the 2006/2007 school year.

Thanksgiving/Christmas buyer ghost town around the corner.

Sleep tight greedy grubbers.

8/18/2006 03:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Take a look at this...

NJ Housing Bubble T-shirts from
www.JerseySlogans.com

8/18/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"coming from outside the US, nicely presents all positions without all the partisan, self-interested hoo ha"


That's a very bad assumption, if you're generalizing past this single article.

8/18/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pat - I think Grim's real name is James Bednar and the article misspelled his name while quoting him ("Bender").

CNS

8/18/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Get the tube of KY and bend over - here it comes!" said an anonymous poster on the blog Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble, expressing how he feels the state government is gouging - or rather, anally raping - its taxpayers.


LOL!

8/18/2006 03:53:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"That's a very bad assumption, if you're generalizing past this single article."

Huh? I was clearly talking about that article - not sure what you're implying.

8/18/2006 04:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Litte off topic:

Went to see "Jersey boys" last night in midtown, w52 btw Bway and 8th (think thats where it was).

This is a great show. You all should see it. If anyone was there last night, I was the guy in the front row with the red VFW beret, black blazer, and my canali jeans ;)

This music reminded me of my high school days, after the basketball games going to the sock hop.

anyway, since this is an NJ blog, just thought I would recommed it.

SAS

8/18/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

SAS, check out "Blue Man Group" it's a real hoot.

8/18/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

NJGal, no biggie, thought you were making a general comment about the "objectivity" of international media.

The Australian is a solid paper.

8/18/2006 05:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAS,

Saw it 3 months ago, loved it!!!!!! Will go again.

BC Bob

8/18/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There was a link to this from Ben Jones. Scary read for me, but a good summary including some facts about China:


http://www.fcnp.com/624/lead.htm

Pat

8/18/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Blogger JRjunky said...

Was doing a little garage sell visiting this morning. Wound up in Plainfield NJ, I have never seen so many for sale signs, it looked like a blizzard hit

8/18/2006 09:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The reason so many houses are for sale in Plainfield is because the ex governor moved in.

8/19/2006 05:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

UNREALTOR,
PLEASE POST ALL NON RE TOPICS ON THE FORUM PLEASE. WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO READ YOUR ENTERTAINMENT TONIGHT REVEIWS.

8/19/2006 07:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 08:21:32,

I think people like a little break away from the stress of the RE market with some of these side comments (within limits of course). Its not that big of a deal. I go off topic all the time and I get emails all the time from people from these blogs asking me to explain more and how I come up with what I say. True.

Have another cup of coffee.

;)
SAS

8/19/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How far behind the downfall
of housing in San Diego, AZ,Las Vegas, Vi, Fla is New Jersey?

Those markets are in free fall.

go to anyone of those cities on
craigslist and type price reduced
on real estate. its in free fall.

My oh MY is jersey next.

we may have many bagholders already.

State putting the signs up in
Spanish, and we need a bank
to lend on no doc, no citizenship,
required.

and of course no money down.

8/19/2006 09:53:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"UNREALTOR,
PLEASE POST ALL NON RE TOPICS ON THE FORUM PLEASE. WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO READ YOUR ENTERTAINMENT TONIGHT REVEIWS."


--

LEARN HOW TO USE THE SHIFT KEY, and get off your mom's computer.

Mine was not the first "NON RE TOPIC" post, but was a reply to another poster. Looks like you have a special thing for my posts alone. I'm flattered (not really).

8/19/2006 12:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe it would be helpful not to ever feed chickens and squirrels who don't sign their names after personal attacks. Perhaps some do this because they think that anonymous rudeness will not harm their reputation for future postings when they want respect. For whatever reason, they care about that..but I'm not sure???

Anons should think about having two names (I think several here already do, and do it well). This way, they can be both bad and good. Never know, you might end up liking the "bad" one. Risk takers, and all.

Regardless of the mood I'm in, client crap going on, etc., I try to sign my posts (admittedly, sometimes I forget.)

Yes, I understand we are ALL anonymous, and maybe the person typing this is not the person who's name appears at the end.

But, it's a thought. You anon posters might really like having a "pseudonym" and you might be surpised at the support you get under that name, for opinions you would otherwise not voice. Try a feminine, for example...if you are really daring.

Pat

8/19/2006 06:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pat-

Does that mean that you are not a female? All this time I thought you were of the fairer sex? No?!! AGGHH, my reality shattered!!

LOL!! Good point. From now on, I will sign on as Amy From Edison (AFE)

8/19/2006 08:15:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

I always thought Pat was female too--don't know why---I just made pat a female. The anonymity of this blog invites projection!

P.S. whether you're male or female, Pat, I enjoy your posts.

8/19/2006 09:38:00 PM  
Blogger StonePearl said...

So I just sold my place in Hoboken.
Currently renting and hate it.
I think it's a chick thing.
Anyway I have money so Im not stressing if I buy again.
But I do want to pay a fair value.
I attended a bunch of open houses in Hoboken today and the turn out was pathetic. Two realtors actually closed up the open houses early (bet the sellers would love to know that. lol)
I came at the end of the day and rapidly went to several open houses.
On the sign in sheets there were no more than 3 names and usually just 2 names already written in.
I chatted with the agents and maanged to bring up the leaking housing bubble. I guess Im cruel.
They all freaked when I brought it up. They all said the same darn partyline, that August is slow and things will pick up after Labor Day so I should buy now.
I'm also going to some open houses tomorrow.
There's one place I like that's already reduced a lot and Im planning on lowballing it further if I dont find anything good tomorrow.

8/19/2006 10:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

StonePearl,

Why are you looking now? Put that money in a 6% interest rate account and hold till this market plays itself out.

Taking a risk right now.
You may hate renting, but you will hate even more buying something, only to have it go down in price. Who wants to pay interest on a depreciating asset?

Also, at this point in the market, a house or anything RE is not an asset, but a liability.

Anyone else have input?

SAS

8/20/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since most of us seem to be in the "pre-purchase" stage, this seems to be the next pitfall to encounter in the quest for the American Dream. I was surfing and saw these and quite frankly, its scared the S**T out of me.
http://www.acehomeinspection.com/gallery.asp

I guess it ain't over till its over.

JAB

8/20/2006 07:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tell you what I have definitly noticed about several of the people who post to this site.
They only complain about comments and off topic discussions if they aren't of the same opinion, politican or bubble wise.
TC

8/20/2006 08:36:00 AM  
Blogger StonePearl said...

I was surfing and saw these and quite frankly, its scared the S**T out of me.
http://www.acehomeinspection.com/gallery.asp

I guess it ain't over till its over.

JAB>>>>>>>>>>


OMG that site is scary and hysterical...........

Actually my grandparents old house had a basedoor that opened right onto the cellar stairs, amazed no one was hurt.

8/20/2006 04:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

JAB: I also loved those shots. Very informative and useful...I never knew to watch for bad roofline design on newer homes.

Stonepearl: My childhood home, an old foursquare, had those doors over the open cellar steps, and we and the neighborhood kids DID get hurt all the time, playing "THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING, DIVE, DIVE..."

It's just that back then, nobody sued. My mother just slapped everybody silly and sent them home with bandaged heads.

Pat

8/20/2006 06:50:00 PM  

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