The Buyers Market Battle Cry

I've been noticing two very odd words appearing more and more often lately. What words you ask? I'm sure you can guess.

Just today I received an email from a reader with a link to this NY Times piece:

The Balance of Power Shifts to Buyers

And a quick search of the newswires finds these:

Slow boil for a buyer's market

No Place Like Home

"For Sale" signs have been popping up all over our area.

Real estate agent Desni Crock says that's because it's a buyers' market.

"It's great for buyers, not so great for sellers. Sellers are tending to hear in the media there's this huge increase in the value of their homes, which is true. However, it's not in this area so much. We've seemed to level out."

Home Building Slows, Still Buyer's Market

Wait a minute.. Just wait. Less than 5 months ago we were at the peak of the hottest sellers market in history. You expect us to believe that in 5 short months the entire balance of power has shifted to the buyers? No, sorry, I don't buy it.

Oh no, we are not in a buyers market, but yes, the market has indeed changed. How? The greater fools have evaporated from the marketplace, but it is not a buyers market. The realtors are counting on the buyers market battle cry to reignite the speculative mania again. It won't happen. Not this spring, not this summer. There is no buyers market. Don't fall for it.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Weekend Open Discussion

Open discussion for the weekend.

Feel free to post about local observations and news, open houses you've stopped in to, the FSBO situation in your neighborhood, or anything else you would like to discuss.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

New Jersey Homebuilders Hosts Home Sale Extravaganza

Local New Jersey Homebuilder is hosting a home sale extravaganza.


Centex Home Sale Extravaganza

Thought everyone could use a good laugh, I tried my hardest..

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Bloomberg Concedes NYC Bubble Has Burst

NYC mayor: housing market "dramatically" slowing

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Friday said the real estate market was slowing "dramatically" and only a "miracle" could stop soaring mortgage rates from eating into housing prices.

Consumers are definitely feeling the pinch of higher mortgage lending rates and are not quite as eager to snap up a new home especially at time when house prices in the Big Apple are near record-highs, the Republican mayor said in his weekly radio show.

"The real estate market is slowing down dramatically and we're going to have a problem down the road," Bloomberg said.

"If people who want to sell their houses have to wait a longer time before someone comes along and buys it, it would be a miracle if prices didn't start to go down," he said.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Lowball Catching On - Diary Of A NJ Real Estate Flipper

From Inman News:

The lowball offer

A picture may be worth a thousand words, but nobody's house is worth what they think it is in this market.

The tough part is telling people that.

I went to see a house in Southwest Newark, N.J., practically in Hillside, in an area where the streets go block-by-block. I went at night, which on reflection was slightly stupid, but I didn't know that part of town well and was trying to get a handle on what the city was like. (I have always held to the "eat your own cooking" philosophy.) So I jumped off a bus and walked along for a while, watching respectable blocks alternate with loud blocks and deserted blocks by turn.

...

Then I waited a couple of days, mulling, and called the agent.

"Look," I said. "I know she's been in that house for a long while, and she's sad to be moving, but it's barely worth $199K new. To rehab it, I've got to put in a new kitchen, revamp the bath, polish up from top to bottom where it hasn't been taken care of. It looks like it's got no major structural defects, but I've still got to put forty thousand dollars into it."

I went over this story with one of my partners. I'm still pretty new at making offers, and I wanted him to hear every detail of the story, see the house as I saw it, be an audience to my conversation with the agent.

And he had only suggestion: "don't be apologetic. Not, 'I'm sorry, but I can only offer you one-forty,' but, 'my offer's one-forty.' You don't know what she's thinking and how she'll handle it. That's it, 'One-forty.'"

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

The Housing Bubble Week In Review

Metro home sales tank

Southeast Michigan's housing market took a sharp dive at the end of a weak 2005, signaling more tough times ahead with interest rates rising and a scarcity of new jobs.

Poor sales in the final few months closed out a year in which homeowners were lucky to get a negligible increase in property value.

Suburbs flush with homes for sale

A decline in house sales last fall has left a January glut of unsold properties in suburban Boston as the big spring selling season approaches, according to data released yesterday.

''Last year was a real awakening," he said. Now, ''buyers and sellers know the market's changed. Last year, nobody knew."

43% of first-time home buyers put no money down

As housing prices soared last year, an eye-popping 43% of first-time home buyers purchased their homes with no-money-down loans, according to a study released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.

The trend is potentially ominous. The real estate market is cooling in some areas, and rates on adjustable-rate loans are creeping up. As a result, some no-money-down buyers could owe more than their homes are worth.

Home prices drop in high-end areas

O'ahu single-family home prices showed significant declines in nearly all of the island's most expensive neighborhoods during the last quarter of 2005 — another sign the state's blazing housing market is cooling.

Dec. Slump Shows Housing May Be Cooling

However, economists are forecasting that construction and sales activity will slow this year under the weight of rising mortgage rates. The big question is whether the slowdown will be gradual or something more severe.

The 8.9 percent drop in construction activity in December was more than double the decline that analysts had been forecasting. It was blamed in part on wet and cold weather in December, which followed an unseasonably warm November when builder activity had risen by 3.4 percent.

Local home builders say that slump has arrived

Lee Wetherington, a prominent Southwest Florida builder not known for his pessimism, is uncharacteristically gloomy. His home building company saw sales drop 50 percent to 70 percent in the fourth quarter compared with a stellar performance at the same time last year. "Sales have just fallen off the cliff," Wetherington said. "There's going to be a dramatic slowdown over the next six months."

Sales of existing homes fall in region

Sales of existing homes in the capital region fell 30 percent in December compared with a year ago as Sacramento County's median sale price dipped for the fourth consecutive month, to $355,000, DataQuick Information Systems reported Thursday.

Bay Area housing market hit hard in December

Bay Area housing market got hit by a double whammy in December: the ninth consecutive month of slowing homes sales and a month-to-month drop in home values, a real estate information service reported today.

GIC Real Estate to Expand Into Brazil, India, China

Government of Singapore Investment Corp., which manages more than $100 billion of foreign reserves, said it may buy real estate in India and Brazil for the first time to guard against the risk of falling U.S. property prices.

``Whether it's going to be a bubble or a slow leak is hard to say,'' Seek Ngee Huat, president of GIC Real Estate Pte, said in an interview. ``We will explore new markets in places like Brazil and India. There are high risks'' in the U.S. housing market.

Home Forclosures On The Rise

"That's when I ran out of money," she said. "I tried to pay it but I couldn't keep up with it anymore. I have nothing."

They're not alone. Foreclosure filings last year in Massachusetts were up 34 percent through November, compared to the prior year.

Experts say the trend is a fallout from the housing boom of the past decade, in which people took out high-risk mortgages, such as interest-only and no-down-payment loans, in order to get into expensive homes.

U.S. December Housing Starts Fell to 1.933 Mln Rate

``Although I do not think that a sharp fall in housing investment is likely, a range of forecasts from flat to moderately declining seems reasonable,'' said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Fed Bank of Richmond, in a speech yesterday. ``Uncertainty'' over how much housing will slow this year is one area of risk for policy makers this year, he said.

Home market cools; officials expect stability

According to a market analysis released by National City Corp., a financial holding company, and Global Insight, a financial information provider, the St. George housing market is 35 percent overvalued.

This statistic means homes are currently being purchased for more than they are worth.

He said part of the problem is sellers have unrealistic expectations of what their homes are worth. However, he said this is changing because of supply and demand.

REAL ESTATE BUBBLE FINAL

Throughout history, you will find notable examples of manias, Ponzi schemes, and bubbles that have ended up in disasters with investors cutting back on their spending and scrambling to atone for their financial mistakes. This scenario did not happen after the Dotcom bubble. Instead, investors shrugged off their losses as they saw the value of their homes skyrocket. Consequently, the rise up in real estate prices allowed them to continue spending and temporarily delayed the US economy from heading into a major recession. I believe that 2006 will be the beginning of the burst of the real estate bubble, and that this burst will have immediate and severe consequences on the US economy as a whole.

Marin housing market cools

Schlegel urged sellers to get ahead of the curve by listing their homes before the early spring surge in inventory in February and March.

"The worst mistake sellers can make is to wait too long to get their properties on the market," Schlegel said.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

NNJBubble Reaches Milestone - 100,000 Hits

Well, it took us about 6 months to get here. I remember the early days of the blog when I was excited to see 100 hits a day (and 20 of them were mine).

Traffic has really picked up lately, and each week brings more. We averaging about 900-950 visits a day and will likely push through the 1000-a-day mark if the trend continues.

I want to thank everyone for getting the word out! But please, continue to spread the word. Believe it or not, it takes me hours a day to keep this blog going, mulling over statistics, doing research, continually watching the newsfeeds. You know what keeps me going? Seeing traffic, seeing comments, knowing people care about what I'm trying to do. Seeing the traffic increase week after week lets me know that what I'm doing is important. If you want this to continue and improve, tell a neighbor, email a friend, post something on a bulletin board, persuade a journalist friend to do an article, anything, but please, keep the traffic coming. With that, I'll quit before I start to sound like a PBS telethon!

A big thanks to all my readers, not just the ones from New Jersey, but everyone across the U.S. and even the world.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Real Estate Bloggers Finally Get Credit

From CNNMoney.com:

Blog if you love real estate

Blogging has hit the real-estate industry...and it just may upend a marketplace known for inefficiency and restricted information.

...

"Blogs are telling it like it is at the street level," said Brad Inman of Inman News, a large real-estate news service. Inman said real-estate blogging began in the Bay area, took hold in New York and has now spread nationally.

...

Blogs also help even the playing field for consumers. Traditionally, only professionals could get full access to comparable prices and property conditions. "Blogs add information -- they level the playing field for consumers," said Dobkin.

...

The info comes from people like you. "Normally, in real estate, most of the information available comes from those representing the sale of properties," said Palmer. "They have a different agenda than the consumer.

...

"A lot of people recognize that the industry is changing," he said. "The era when almost all of the information was controlled by one side is going the way of the dodo."

----

With all the negativity surrounding the real estate bloggers lately, it's actually kind of refreshing to read something as positive as this.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Price Reduced! Sub-500 Edition 1/12-1/19

Welcome to another edition of Price Reduced!

For all the newcomers to this blog, Price Reduced! takes a look at a handful of significant price reductions across Northern NJ. The purpose of this exercise is to serve as proof that the Northern New Jersey real estate market has long since been overvalued and has started the long hard decline back to the mean. These listings are in no way an endorsement by myself, nor do I believe they are a bargain or a value. Even reduced, I still believe these homes are still grossly overpriced.

I'm going to change things up a little bit to keep the content fresh. I'm sure readers here don't need to be convinced that sellers are dropping prices quickly, so I'm going to look at Price Reduced! from some new angles in the upcoming weeks.

In this edition of Price Reduced! we'll be looking at price reductions of properties with asking prices below $500,000. The media has been reporting that there has been a slow down at the upper end, but what about the lower? Judge for yourself.

On to the Sub-500 Editition of Price Reduced!

MLS# 2105351 - Hardyston, NJ
List Price $250,000
Reduced Price $185,000 (Price Reduced 26.0%)

MLS# 2227865 - Newark, NJ
List Price $398,000
Reduced Price $298,000 (Price Reduced 25.13%)

MLS# 2203984 - Victory Gardens, NJ
List Price $239,900
Reduced Price $199,900 (Price Reduced 16.67%)

MLS# 2225458 - Elizabeth, NJ
List Price $439,900
Reduced Price $379,000 (Price Reduced 13.84%)

MLS# 2223389 - Passaic, NJ
List Price $369,900
Reduced Price $324,900 (Price Reduced 12.17%)

MLS# 2106314 - Fredon, NJ
List Price $424,900 (Reduced from $434,900)
Reduced Price $375,000 (Price Reduced 11.74%)

MLS# 2112679 - Hopatcong, NJ
List Price $299,500
Reduced Price $269,000 (Price Reduced 10.18%)

MLS# 2105097 - Haledon, NJ
List Price $475,000
Reduced Price $429,000 (Price Reduced 9.68%)

MLS# 2221729 - Teaneck, NJ
List Price $409,500
Reduced Price $369,900 (Price Reduced 9.67%)

MLS# 2108989 - Oakland, NJ
List Price $428,900 (Reduced from $449,900)
Reduced Price $389,900 (Price Reduced 9.09%)

MLS# 2111412 - Parsippany, NJ
List Price $549,900 (Reduced from $575,000)
Reduced Price $499,900 (Price Reduced 9.09%)

MLS# 2200619 - Midland Park, NJ
List Price $547,500 (Reduced from $575,000)
Reduced Price $499,000 (Price Reduced 8.86%)

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

New Jersey Real Estate Agent Claims Bubble Has Burst

A reader sent this posting on craigslist:

--------------------

$200000 - THE BUBBLE HAS BURST-INVEST YOUR MONEY WISELY

Reply to: xxxxxx

Date: 2006-01-19, 10:09AM EST

WE HAVE HOMES LISTED THAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRICED THEN THEY WERE JUST 6 MONTHS AGO !!!!!! STOP PAYING RENT !!!! STOP WORKING, LIVE OFF YOUR RENTAL INCOME!!!!!! INVEST IN REAL ESTATE

CALL ME,NO STRINGS ATTACHED,TO DISCUSS YOUR OPTIONS AND VIEW PREMIUM PROPERTIES IN THE MORRIS PASSAIC AND BERGEN COUNTY AREA

(xxx) xxx-xxxx

----------------

There you go folks, turns out I was all wrong. All you need to do is give this guy a call. He'll set you up with a nice real estate investment. You can sit back, drink margaritas, and never have to work another day in your life.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs

This picture was posted up at Bubblemeter this morning. Please check out David's site if you haven't yet.

I couldn't help myself, this is perhaps the best "signs" picture posted yet. It was provided by one of the Bubblemeter readers. Since I did appropriate this image from his website, I ask readers to please visit Bubblemeter and drop a comment or two. Web traffic and comments are the fuel that drive bloggers, it's how we know people are interested and that we're doing a good job.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

A Handful of CPI Articles

December's Deceptive CPI Data

DON'T BE FOOLED BY the surprising year-end swoon in inflation. Despite the brief respite from sky-high energy prices in December, expensive oil is already back, and some economists warn that crude runs the risk of remaining at lofty levels throughout 2006.

"We had more of a drop in energy [during December] than I or most people were anticipating," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington, D.C., think tank. "But that's clearly not going to stick."

Energy prices boost inflation

Surging energy prices pushed consumer inflation to a five-year high in 2005, outpacing average wage gains for most American workers, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The department's consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge, rose 3.4 percent last year, the fastest rate since 2000, largely reflecting climbing prices for fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas and electricity, the department said.

However, workers' average pay rose more slowly. Average hourly wages fell 0.5 percent and average weekly earnings declined 0.4 percent, after adjusting for inflation, in the 12 months that ended in December, the department said in a separate report.

December prices dip, but inflation climbs for '05

The Labor Department said Wednesday that its consumer price index fell 0.1 percent in December, though record fuel prices sent inflation rising in 2005 at the fastest pace in five years.

The December decline followed a 0.6 percent drop in November and marked the first back-to-back declines in two years.

For the full year, inflation increased 3.4 percent, slightly higher than a 3.3 percent increase in 2004 and the biggest advance since a similar increase in 2000. Energy costs jumped 17.1 percent, the biggest increase since an 18.1 percent surge in 1990 when global oil markets were roiled by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

December Housing Starts Fall More Than Forecast

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Housing Starts Fell 8.9% in December to 1.933 Million Rate

U.S. housing starts dropped more than forecast in December as slowing sales caused builders to pull back at the end of the industry's second-best year ever.

Builders broke ground on 1.933 million new homes at an annual rate last month, a decline of 8.9 percent from November's 2.121 million pace and the fewest since March, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Last year, 2.065 million homes were started, second only to the record 2.356 million in 1972.

...

``Things will cool off and cool off considerably,'' said Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York, before the report. ``Price appreciation has created a situation where it's very unlikely that sales will keep increasing. The overall contribution of housing to economic growth will go from being highly positive to slightly negative.''

...

Construction declined in three of four regions. They declined 24 percent in the Midwest to 295,000; 22 percent in the West to 433,000; and 14 percent in the Northeast to 172,000. They rose 5.2 percent in the South.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

PMI Releases Updated Housing Risk Index - New Jersey In Top 10

The PMI Group released their updated housing risk index on Tuesday. New Jersey finds itself situated firmly in the top 10 highest risk areas:


In fact, as of the latest release, the Edison, NJ (473) and New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ (447) MSAs have a higher risk index than Las Vegas (418). The Newark-Union, NJ-PA follows close behind with a risk index of 365. This release saw the risk index of Newark, NJ, New York, Edison, NJ jump more than 100 points.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Northern NJ Residential Inventory Update

Time to continue with the North Jersey Weekly Residential Inventory Update.

GSMLS (SFH, Condo, Coop)
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties
1/11 - 11385
1/18 - 11696 (2.7% Increase this week, 6.2% since Jan 1)

NJMLS (SFH, Condo, Coop)
Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties
1/11 - 5370
1/18 - 5565 (3.6% Weekly Increase)

MLSGuide (SFH, Condo, Coop, does not include Multis)
Hudson County
1/11 - 1735
1/18 - 1782 (2.7% Weekly Increase)

Inventory is picking up pretty rapidly. A quick glance at the stats looks like it's a combination between sales dropping off quickly and new inventory coming on. I am going to dig a little deeper into details, look for an update in a few days.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

You Don't Need Money To Buy A Home.

Apparently, having money is no longer a prerequisite for purchasing a home. The NAR released a study this past Tuesday that showed only 43% of first time buyers put no money down. Even worse, of the 57% that put some money down, the median down payment was a miniscule 2%.

Does anyone not see the incredible risk inherent in this? These buyers have absolutely no "skin-in-the-game". Nor do they have the financial aptitude to save any money at all. Years ago these 'buyers' would have been laughed at and told to come back with money to lay on the table. No longer! Purchasing a home has gone the way of the shady automobile dealer.

Bad Credit! No Money! Bankruptcy! C'mon down!

43% of first-time home buyers put no money down

As housing prices soared last year, an eye-popping 43% of first-time home buyers purchased their homes with no-money-down loans, according to a study released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.

The trend is potentially ominous. The real estate market is cooling in some areas, and rates on adjustable-rate loans are creeping up. As a result, some no-money-down buyers could owe more than their homes are worth.

...

Already, home prices in many areas are declining, and the "For Sale" signs are hanging in front yards longer. There's now at least a 50% risk that prices will decline within two years in 11 major metro areas, including San Diego; Boston; Long Island, N.Y.; Los Angeles; and San Francisco, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance's latest U.S. Market Risk Index.

The result will not be pretty, I can promise you that.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble Is Ad-Free

I've eliminated all the affiliate advertising from this site. This is in response to an article written by Andrew Kleske of the North County Times:

Housing Bubbles and the Web sites that love them

Andrew made a comment about advertisements on many of the other bubble blogs. Some see this as a source of potential bias or a conflict of interest. Because of this, the ads must go. I do n0t want to give any journalist ammunition against what I'm saying. This is something your local newspaper or news website won't ever consider (think of the thick Sunday real estate section).

Just to clear the slate, I have not made a single dollar through any of the advertising on this website. Previously, when using Google Adsense, I did make accumulate approximately 8 dollars, however Google took the money back and deleted my account due to "complaints of inappropriate content". How fitting.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

News From The North - Boston Feeling Pain

From the Boston Globe:

Suburbs flush with homes for sale

A decline in house sales last fall has left a January glut of unsold properties in suburban Boston as the big spring selling season approaches, according to data released yesterday.

...

Some real estate agents expect this large supply of housing to be compounded by new sellers entering the market for the first time in February and March, which typically begins the busiest season for sales.

...

Real estate agents are split over what the sizable jump in inventory will do to buyers and sellers -- and the impact it will have on sales and prices. Campos is banking on a lowering of price expectations among buyers and sellers, who have witnessed years of rapidly rising prices amid a feeling housing supply was limited. But now prices have softened, he said, and if sellers drop asking prices to more realistic levels, buyers are poised to move in.

''Last year was a real awakening," he said. Now, ''buyers and sellers know the market's changed. Last year, nobody knew."

But Bill Wendel, a broker who represents only buyers as owner of Real Estate Cafe in Cambridge, does not see buyers coming out of the woodwork to snap up bargains and shrink bloated inventories. Many first-time buyers or renters have indicated they will continue to watch the market, hoping prices fall further, he said.

----

Seems that buyer psychology is shifting rather quickly these days. These buyers on the sidelines that are hoping for price declines will not jump in to catch the falling knives.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

Home Builders Brace For Sales to Simmer Down

From the WSJ:

Home Builders Brace For Sales to Simmer Down

On the surface, business appeared to be better than ever at last week's annual International Builders Show. A record 1,600 exhibitors touted everything from Mr. Steam towel warmers to Synlawn synthetic grass to 10-foot-high Marvin double-hung windows. Attendance also was a record. Just over 105,000 people crowded into this city's Orange County Convention Center. That was up sharply from the 66,000 who attended the show 10 years ago.

But below the surface, there was an air of caution, which stemmed from an industry slowdown that began in the fourth quarter and uncertainty over what it will mean for home construction, as well as the overall economy. Hundreds of builders packed into an auditorium to hear three industry economists predict the first downturn in U.S. housing starts in five years.

David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders predicted housing starts would fall by between 6% and 7% from last year's torrid pace of about 2.1 million units -- amid high home prices and rising mortgage rates. Although Mr. Seiders, the association's chief economist, characterized the projected drop as only a "simmering down" of the white-hot housing market, his forecast included what he called the remote possibility of "sizable house-price declines" if the investors and short-term-interest borrowers who have helped fuel the boom start rushing for the exits. "The real question," he told the audience, "is where do we go from here."

One pessimist, Ed Sullivan, chief economist of the Portland Cement Association, suggested a recession-like housing spiral isn't so far-fetched. He pointed out that the disparity between incomes and home prices is at its greatest level in at least a quarter century, and that the upward trend in rates could make it harder for adjustable-rate borrowers to keep up on their payments.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Thanks to Michelle for sending this one in.

Real estate's January report card

From Inman News:

Real estate's January report card

The housing market continues to show signs of slowing, but very little evidence of the "bursting bubble" that has been predicted for more than three years by some prognosticators. One sign of slowing is the level of unsold new homes.

There are now nearly 200,000 more unsold new homes under construction than there were just five years ago. Rapidly rising sales have masked the surge in construction.

Most analysts focus on the months of new-home supply, which is shown below. Since hitting a low of 3.5 months of supply in the summer of 2003, this number has gradually increased to its current value of 4.9 months, its highest value since December 1996.

While 4.9 months of supply is not concerning because the figure remains so low by historical standards, the months of supply calculation is held down by the high level of sales. If sales slow even a little, the months of supply figure will surge, as it did in 1990. The total number of unsold new homes is shown in the purple line below. There were 503,000 unsold new homes in November 2005, compared with 305,000 in November 2000.

Take it with a grain of salt as it comes from a real estate news service. However, with exising and new home inventories breaking records almost daily, I can't believe that the situation is still being described as "slowing".

Demand is already declining quickly, as it does so 'months supply' will begin to skyrocket to levels seen in the early nineties.

Interesting that this is supposed to be a "January" report card, yet most of the real estate statistics being quoted as justification for the 'grade' were from November (and a handful from December).

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Economic Calendar

Quite a bit of economic data to be released the second half of this month. Here is a glimpse of the pertinent data I'll be reporting on:

1/18 - CPI & Core CPI
1/19 - Housing Starts & Building Permits
1/25 - Existing Home Sales
1/27 - GDP & Chain Deflator
1/27 - New Home Sales
1/30 - Personal Income & Spending (Savings Rate)
1/31 - FOMC Policy Statement (Fed Rate Hike)

I'd love to get some predictions from readers that are familiar with these economic reports/statistics.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Lowball! 1/9 - 1/15

Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.

Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, lowball offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be 'hot'. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.

On to the list!

MLS# 2210326 - Franklin Twp, NJ
List Price $536,000
Sales Price $326,000 (39.18% Lowball!)

MLS# 2089837 - Clifton, NJ
List Price $285,750 (Reduced from $299,000)
Sales price $225,000 (21.26% Lowball!, 24.75% off OLP)

MLS# 2112522 - Elizabeth, NJ
List Price $305,000
Sales Price $250,000 (18.03% Lowball!)

MLS# 2078802 - Wayne, NJ
List Price $1,199,999 (Reduced from 1,249,999)
Sales Price $985,000 (17.92% Lowball!, 21.20% off OLP)

MLS# 2096975 - Wyckoff, NJ
List Price $1,200,000 (Reduced from $1,800,000)
Sales Price $999,999 (16.67% Lowball!, 44.44% off OLP)

MLS# 2087067 - Orange, NJ
List Price $399,999
Sales Price $336,000 (15.98% Lowball!)

MLS# 2210985 - Bernardsville, NJ
List Price $4,295,000
Sales Price $3,650,000 (15.02% Lowball!)

MLS# 2101148 - Green Brook, NJ
List Price $318,750
Sales Price $280,000 (14.83% Lowball!)

MLS# 2200384 - Wayne, NJ
List Price $529,000
Sales price $465,000 (12.10% Lowball!)

MLS# 2085211 - Bloomingdale, NJ
List Price $379,900 (Reduced from $450,000)
Sales Price $335,000 (11.82% Lowball!, 25.56% off OLP)

MLS# 2093395 - Rockaway, NJ
List Price $450,000
Sales Price $400,000 (11.11% Lowball!)

Hope everyone is enjoying the weather this morning. The open houses will certainly be very quiet today.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim